/Issued 4:11 PM CST, Thursday, November 14, 2013/
*12z EURO ensemble mean map valid for Sunday Morning, November 17, 2013. Blue area on the map has the best chance to see the rain turn to snow with minor accumulations possible Sunday Afternoon into Sunday Night. The South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin and in Upper Michigan could get a significant amount of lake effect snow Sunday Night and Monday. (Source http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/)
*There is a potential for strong winds across the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes from Sunday Night into Monday as low pressure could deepen explosively as it moves over Lake Superior. (Source, 18z NAM/WRF model via http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/)
-2013 thru September is the 7th warmest year on record worldwide. (Source, Paul Douglas St. Cloud Times)
*Drought update as of November 12, 2013*
Source: Climate Prediction Center
63% of the state is Abnormally dry; Down from 62% last week.
25% of the state is in Moderate drought; Same as last week.
Note: 38% of Minnesota is free of drought; Up from 37% last week.
46% of the state is Abnormally dry; down from 49% last week.
23% of the state is in Moderate drought; down from 26% last week.
4% of the state is in Severe drought; down from 6% last week.
Note: 50% of Wisconsin is free of drought; Same as last week.
November 2000-2012 snowfall totals for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Note: Average snowfall in November is 13.7″
Note: Above average years are in bold.
2013: 1.1″ thru the 14th.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A west/northwest flow is in place over the Upper Midwest Today with a couple of disturbances moving east/southeast out of the Northern Plains and Southern Canada. Not much in the way of precipitation has occurred over the Northland Today despite these systems moving closer or through our area. Clouds have been the main story Today with just a few spotty light rain showers or sprinkles occurring here and there. Highs ranged from the mid 30s to mid 40s with some spots near 50 degrees in the Southwest portion of the Northland. Winds Today were out of the south, west, or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 14)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected Tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s. Could see a few snow or rain showers, mainly over Northern Minnesota but little to no accumulation is expected. Winds will be out of the northwest or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Friday and Friday Night (November 15)
Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue this period as low pressure develops over the Western High Plains/Northern Plains region. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s with lows mainly in the 30s. Winds will be out of the south or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Saturday through Monday (November 16-18)
A large upper level trough will move through the Upper Midwest this weekend with two low pressure systems affecting our weather. The 1st one comes through on Saturday and it should bring some rain/drizzle to NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin.
A 2nd low will then track NE out of the Central Plains on Sunday, this system may deepen significantly with pressures possibly dropping below 980mb by late Sunday Night. The storm on Sunday also looks like it’ll bring some rain to the Northland, but colder air moving in from the west could change the rain over to snow especially during the Afternoon/Evening hours.
Note: Minor snowfall accumulations could occur over parts of the area Sunday Afternoon or Night, but this doesn’t look like a major snow event at this time. Of more significance could be howling NW winds Sunday Night into Monday. Wind gusts could exceed 30-40 mph during that time.
Monday could feature some snow showers and flurries over the area with possible lake effect snow affecting the South Shore of Lake Superior.
High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 30s to lower 40s. Should have quite a range in highs on Sunday with 30s in Northern Minnesota to the 40s and 50s over Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Monday mainly in the 20s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Up and down temperatures will be the story during this period. Below to near average temperatures on the 19th, possibly a period of above average temperatures between the 20th-21st, and then below average temperatures could return during the 22nd-24th. No major storms are showing up at this time through this period.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Considerable cloudiness. Low 28 to 33. Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 42 to 47. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 33 to 37. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Occasional rain possible. High 40 to 43.
.Saturday Night… Mostly cloudy. Drizzle possible. Low 35 to 38.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 40 to 45.
.Sunday Night… Windy and colder. Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 18 to 23. Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph.
.Monday… Breezy and cold. Flurries possible. High 23 to 28.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
Sunrise Friday: 7:12 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:34 PM CST