/Issued 3:30 PM CST, Friday, November 15, 2013/
-Signs of spring in mid-November, I’ll take it! Image below is the NWS Storm Prediction Center’s severe thunderstorm probability forecast valid for Saturday. A marginal chance (5%) extends as far north as Rochester, Hastings, Eau Claire and Green Bay.
-A much greater chance for severe thunderstorms for Sunday as the main low develops and deepens as it heads into the Upper Great Lakes. Anywhere from Michigan to Indiana and Ohio and points south is at risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday with high winds, tornadoes, and hail all possible. (Source, NWS Storm Prediction Center)
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Remember how cold it was earlier this week? That was quite the cold shot for this time of year. Fast forward to mid/late week and were seeing an impressive warm-up. High temperatures for the 3rd day in a row have made it into the 40s over most of the Northland with low 50s even showing up at a number of locations south of Pine River to Duluth line This Afternoon. Low clouds, some fog and drizzle which developed early This Morning did burn off leaving behind a good deal of sunshine during the Afternoon hours. Winds Today were out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 15)
Low pressure will cover the Western High Plains and Northern Plains Tonight with a SW low level jet increasing to 30-40 knots ahead of this system Tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with patchy fog and drizzle possible. Some rain showers may also develop Tonight, mainly along and west of a line from Brainerd to Crane Lake. Lows will be in the 30s with south or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (November 16)
Broad area of low pressure will move into the Upper Midwest this period. This system should bring some rain to East Central and Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from late Saturday Morning into Saturday Evening. Some rain could also affect Northern Minnesota, but not until Saturday Night. Areas of fog and drizzle is also possible during this period. Highs will be in the 40s to lower 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 15 mph.
-Water vapor satellite image from 3:15 PM Today. I labeled the 2 pieces of energy that’ll be affecting the weather across the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes this weekend. (Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/)
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (November 17-19)
Broad low pressure will begin to consolidate on Sunday as it tracks out of Iowa and into Northern Lake Superior. This low then moves into Eastern Canada early next week. This system will deepen quite a bit with pressures of around 990mb Sunday Morning dropping to around 975mb by early Monday Morning.
Some rain is possible over the Northland on Sunday. Colder air will sweep in from the west during the Afternoon/Evening which results in some flurries and snow showers from Sunday Night into Monday Morning. Little to no snow accumulation is expected at this time, the only exceptions to this could be over far Northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead where 1-2″ of snow could accumulate late this weekend. The other area could be along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin…That area could pick up a few inches of snow late Sunday Night and Monday due to lake effect.
The period from Monday Afternoon into Tuesday look generally dry at the moment. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with a few 50s in Northwest Wisconsin. Lows Sunday Night will be in the teens and 20s. Highs on Monday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens and 20s. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Near to below average temperatures are forecast during this period. Could see some snow or rain around the Northland Wednesday Night/Thursday (20th-21st) Light snowfall accumulations could occur, but this doesn’t look like a big snow event.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 34 to 39. Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible during the Afternoon. High 43 to 48. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday Night… Areas of fog and drizzle possible. Rain possible early. Low 38 to 43. Wind southeast to south at 5 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. Rain showers possible. High 43 to 46.
.Sunday Night… Breezy and colder. Flurries or snow showers possible. Low 20 to 25. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Monday… Breezy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Morning flurries possible. High 30 to 35.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 30 to 35.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Saturday: 7:13 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 4:33 PM CST