/Issued 4:01 PM CST, Monday, November 18, 2013/
*All aboard the arctic express! There’s a major shot of cold air showing up in the computer models for Saturday. Image below is the 12z EUROPEAN model. Daytime highs over the Northland could hold in the teens on Saturday which is well below average for this time of year. Wind chills (feels like temperature) could be in the zero to 20 below range on Saturday. BRRRR~~
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
November 10-16, 2013
11/10: 40F/1 degree above normal
11/11: 24F/14 degrees below normal
11/12: 29F/9 degrees below normal
11/13: 46F/9 degrees above normal
11/14: 47F/11 degrees above normal
11/15: 50F/14 degrees above normal
11/16: 46F/11 degrees above normal
11/10: 24F/1 degree below normal
11/11: 12F/13 degrees below normal
11/12: 10F/14 degrees below normal
11/13: 20F/3 degrees below normal
11/14: 31F/8 degrees above normal
11/15: 32F/10 degrees above normal
11/16: 41F/19 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: 0.27″
*Last week’s temperature departure map. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
*Last week’s precipitation departure map. (Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center)
*Sunday’s severe weather outbreak played out pretty much as expected. Kudos to the computer models and all the meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center, and the various National Weather Service offices that were in the affected areas for a job well done on Sunday.
*As of late This Afternoon; 84 preliminary tornado reports on November 17, 2013 with a total of 682 severe weather reports, including 556 damaging wind reports. (Source, NWS/Storm Prediction Center)
*419 warnings were issued by the National Weather Service on November 17, 2013.
*According to Jeff Masters, Sunday’s HIGH RISK was the farthest north for an extreme tornado outbreak for so late in the season.
*EF-0 tornado in Ostego, Michigan on Sunday. “This is the northernmost Michigan tornado on record this late in the year”. (Source, twitter; @weatherchannel)
*Storm reports map from Sunday per SPC.
Red dots=tornado reports
Blue dots=damaging wind reports
green dots=large hail reports
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A powerful low of 968mb was centered just east of Hudson Bay Canada late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1024mb over Missouri with a ridge extending north into the Upper Midwest. Mostly cloudy skies were common Today with scattered snow showers and flurries. Much colder air also moved into the area Today with high temperatures in the 20s. Winds were out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 18)
A chilly but quiet night ahead as skies vary between partly and mostly cloudy. Lows will be in the teens and 20s with winds turning to the south/east Overnight.
Tuesday and Tuesday Night (November 19)
Low pressure will be centered to our northwest with high pressure off to our southeast. A warm front will be moving into the Northland Tomorrow Night along with a strong 850mb jet of 50-60 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast during this period with highs in the 30s to lower 40s. Lows Tomorrow Night will be mainly in the 30s. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Wednesday through Friday (November 20-22)
A cold front will be moving through the Northland from NW-SE during this period on Wednesday. This front could bring some snow showers or mixed precipitation to the area especially from late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Night. Not looking for much snow accumulation though, maybe a dusting to half inch in some locations. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s with a few 50s over Southern areas. Lows Wednesday Night will be in the teens and 20s.
Thursday looks mainly dry at this time and it will be cooler as well with highs in the 20s to lower 30s with lows in the teens and 20s. Could see some snow showers or flurries over the area on Friday as a weak disturbance passes by to our south. Highs on Friday will be in the 20s and 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
A strong arctic front is forecast to blast through the Northland early Saturday. Snow showers and flurries could occur as this front passes by with snowfall accumulations generally less than 1″. Another clipper or 2 may affect our weather between the 24th-26th with a few snow showers or flurries. Below average temperatures are expected on the 23rd-24th with temperatures closer to average from the 25th-28th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 16 to 21. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph, becoming south after Midnight.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 35 to 40. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 42 to 47.
.Wednesday Night… Mostly cloudy. Snow showers or flurries possible. Low 20 to 25.
.Thursday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. High 30 to 35.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:18 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday: 4:30 PM CST