***2013-14 winter weather forecast based off the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) for Duluth, Minnesota***
What is the LRC? Well, here’s a great explanation of it from Josh Herman:
* A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October and November
* The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer.
* Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.
* The LRC isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere.
To put this in very simple terms, the weather pattern that occurs in October and November repeats thru the winter, spring, and summer. The cycle length will vary each year.
Below I will be breaking down the winter months of December, January, and February into weekly forecasts.
Note: Days with snow=0.1″ or greater accumulation.
(1st-7th) 0.7″ of snow. 3 days with snow. Mild to warm temperatures.
(8th-14th) 12.0″ of snow. 5 days with snow. Temperatures trending cooler.
(15th-21st) 4.9″ of snow. 3 days with snow. Coldest stretch of the month. (Bitter cold)
(22nd-28th) 1.7″ of snow. 3 days with snow. Up and down temperatures.
(29th-Jan. 4th) 4.7″ of snow. 3 days with snow. Temperatures trending colder.
Total snowfall for December: 22.0″
(5th-11th) 2.7″ of snow. 2 days with snow. Cold start, followed by a warmup.
(12th-18th) 2.2″ of snow. 3 days with snow. Milder temperatures.
(19th-25th) 17.6″ of snow. 4 days with snow. Colder temperatures.
(26th-Feb. 1st) 1.9″ of snow. 3 days with snow. Warmer temperatures.
Total snowfall for January: 26.3″
(2nd-8th) 19.2″ of snow. 5 days with snow. Up and down temperatures.
(9th-15th) 4.9″ of snow. 2 days with snow. Colder temperatures.
(16th-22nd) 0.8″ of snow. 2 days with snow. Colder temperatures.
(23rd-28th) 2.4″ of snow. 2 days with snow. Cool temperatures.
Total snowfall for February: 27.4″
Total snowfall from December-February: 75.7″
Total number of days with snow: 41
Note: Personally I do think the snowfall total of 75″ this winter is a little too high. I would concentrate more on the trends which would point to an active winter, but as is always the case storm tracks will be critical as to whether or not we get hit with snow or missed. The trends are there for a snowy Dec-Feb, but will it happen? Gonna have to wait and see.
What will the weather be like for certain holidays that are fast approaching? Well with the power of the LRC I can tell you.
Christmas Eve (12/24) High 11F. Low -5F. 0.2″ of snow.
Christmas Day (12/25) High 19F. Low 9F. 0.3″ of snow.
New Year’s Eve (12/31) High 16F. Low 2F. No snow or rain.
New Year’s Day (1/1) High 13F. Low -1F. No snow or rain.
Key dates to keep an eye on for more significant snowfalls this winter:
**December 10, 15, and 30.
**January 11, 18, 22, 23, and 25.
**February 4, 6, 9, and 24.
Note: With long range forecasting it’s always good to give or take a day to the dates that I listed above.
In closing, this will be my 3rd year using the LRC, and I do plan to keep track of how it’s doing on a daily/weekly/monthly basis, so look for those stats in my blog posts once we get to December 1.
If you want to learn more about the LRC, I highly recommend contacting the following people.
Josh Herman @OSNW3
Jeremy Nelson @jnelsonweather
Joe Renkin @TriStatesWx
Thanks for reading!