/Issued 3:43 PM CST, Thursday, November 21, 2013/
*Before the arctic air arrives Friday Night there may be a period of light snow and flurries across the Northland. Shouldn’t add up to much though, generally a few tenths of an inch accumulation. Image below is the 18z NAM/WRF model valid for 6 PM Friday.
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
The first of 2 shots of cold air moved into the Northland Today as a cold front pushed off to our south and east allowing for increasing north winds and cold air advection to sweep into the area. Daytime highs ranged from the upper teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s and lower 30s elsewhere. Some light snow and flurries have also been occurring Today with accumulations generally ranging from 0.1-0.8″. Patchy light freezing drizzle also occurred in some locations Today. Winds were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Image below is the temperature map from 1 PM Today per RAP model.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (November 21)
Areas of light snow and flurries will continue during the Evening hours across Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota with accumulations of under an inch. Patchy light freezing drizzle may also occur especially around the Hayward Lakes, Park Falls, and Ogema areas. Flurries are possible This Evening in Northeast Minnesota. By late Tonight expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with high pressure passing SE out of the Northern Plains. Lows will be in the teens and 20s with north or west winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Note: Periods of lake effect snow are forecast to develop Tonight over Ashland and Iron County in Northern Wisconsin with 1-4″ of accumulation possible by dawn.
Friday and Friday Night (November 22)
A stronger push of cold air arrives from NW-SE by Friday Evening/Overnight. A powerful arctic front will drop S/SE through the Northland Friday Afternoon and Evening with a brief period of snow showers and flurries likely occurring as this boundary moves through. Snowfall accumulations should remain under an inch though. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs in the 20s to low 30s with teens in far Northern Minnesota. Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the single digits and teens. Winds will shift west/southwest on Friday to the north/northwest by Friday Night. Wind speeds will be in the 10-25 mph range.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Saturday through Monday (November 23-25)
Dry but very cold conditions will be found over the Northland on Saturday as a very strong high averaging 1048mb builds south/east out of the Northern Plains. High temperatures will only be in the single digits to around 20 degrees which is well below average for this time of year. Lows Saturday Night will range from the single digits below to around 10 above zero. Low pressure remains north of the border Sunday and Monday. A warm air advection pattern occurs on Sunday, followed by cold advection on Monday. A few snow showers and flurries could occur at times both Sunday and Monday but very little in the way of accumulations is expected. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the teens and 20s with not much change in temperature for Sunday Night. Highs on Monday will be in the 20s to lower 30s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(November 26-December 1)
Doesn’t look like will be affected by any major storm systems through this period as the flow aloft stays out of the northwest. With the NW flow in place we could be hit by a weak system or two but with a lack of moisture any snow that does fall should be on the light side. Below average temperatures are forecast during this period.
***Lake effect snowfall accumulation forecast valid for Friday Night and Saturday***
4-8″ are possible over portions of Iron and Ashland County. Lesser amounts farther north/west with a few inches of snow possible over parts of Bayfield, Douglas, and Northern Ashland County. The snow totals shown on the map are for Friday Night and Saturday.
The NWS in Duluth has issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch for Friday Evening through Saturday Afternoon for Iron County in Northwest Wisconsin including the cities of Hurley, Gile, Upson, and Montreal.
Use extreme caution if you have travel plans along the South Shore of Lake Superior Friday Night and Saturday. Roads will be snow/ice covered and very slippery. Visibilities could drop to a quarter mile in the heavier snow showers. Northwest winds gusting to 25 mph could lead to some blowing and drifting snow as well.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Flurries possible early. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 16 to 21. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 23 to 28. Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Friday Night… Breezy. Snow showers and flurries possible before Midnight. Snowfall accumulations less than 1″. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 5 to 10. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Wind chills from 0 to 15 below.
.Saturday… Cold. Mostly sunny. High 13 to 18. Wind chills from 15 below to 10 above.
.Saturday Night… Mostly clear. Low 0 to 5.
.Sunday… Mostly cloudy. High 20 to 25.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Low 15 to 20.
.Monday… Considerable cloudiness. High 27 to 32.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Friday: 7:22 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:28 PM CST