/Issued 4:02 PM CST, Sunday, December 1, 2013/
*Here’s what I’m thinking for snowfall accumulations from Monday through Wednesday (Subject to change)
Pink area: Up to 10″ of snow.
Red area: 10″ or greater snow amounts.
Orange area: Best chance for possible mixed precip on Tuesday. Snow totals generally in the 3-6″ range.
*National Weather Service hazards map.
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory.
12 PM Monday until 6 PM CST Wednesday for the following Counties:
Crow Wing MN
St. Louis MN
6 PM Monday until 6 AM CST Thursday for the following Counties:
***Use extreme caution if you have travel plans around the Northland starting on Monday and continuing into mid-week as road conditions will be hazardous with snow/ice/slush covered roads. Slow down and allow plenty of extra time to reach your destination***
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
November 24-30, 2013
11/25: 36F/6 degrees above normal
11/26: 21F/9 degrees below normal
11/27: 20F/9 degrees below normal
11/28: 22F/7 degrees below normal
11/29: 25F/3 degrees below normal
11/30: 35F/7 degrees above normal
11/24: 0F/17 degrees below normal
11/25: 21F/4 degrees above normal
11/26: 10F/6 degrees below normal
11/27: 6F/10 degrees below normal
11/28: 10F/5 degrees below normal
11/29: -3F/18 degrees below normal
11/30: 23F/9 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: 0.13″
-Last week’s temperature departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
-Last week’s precipitation departure map. Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.
Meteorological fall 2013 is in the books (September-November)
Here are the stats for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
Average temperature: 59.9F
Departure: +4.3 degrees
Total precipitation: 1.26″
Total snowfall: 0.0″
Average temperature: 45.0F
Departure: +1.8 degrees
Total precipitation: 3.93″
Total snowfall: 0.3″
Average temperature: 27.9F
Departure: -0.9 degrees
Total precipitation: 1.33″
Total snowfall: 4.7″
Total precipitation from Sep 1 – Nov 30: 6.01″
Note: Last year we had 3.51″ of precipitation.
Total snowfall from Sep 1 – Nov 30: 5.0″
Note: Last year we had 11.3″ of snow.
December averages for Duluth, MN (Airport location)
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:33 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset on the 1st: 4:22 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st: 4:30 PM CST
Today’s Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Overcast skies and seasonable temperatures highlighted the opening day of December 2013. Patchy fog, light freezing drizzle, and a few snow showers also occurred Today mainly along the North Shore of Lake Superior and over parts of Northern Minnesota. High temperatures Today were in the mid 20s to low 30s with variable winds around 10 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (December 1)
Mostly cloudy skies will continue Tonight with patchy fog and possibly some light freezing drizzle here and there. Scattered snow showers are possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior, mainly from Silver Bay – Lutsen – Grand Marais with accumulations generally around 1″ or less. Some additional snow may start to break out after Midnight over Western/Southern parts of the Northland as low pressure moves toward the Northern Rockies with a warm air advection pattern developing well ahead of this storm. Lows Tonight will be in the teens and 20s with winds out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Monday and Monday Night (December 2)
Low pressure tracks into the Western High Plains/Northern Plains during this period. Snow will occur at times ahead of this system in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin. Highs will be in the 20s and 30s with lows in the 20s to lower 30s. East winds are expected at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Tuesday through Thursday (December 3-5)
An area of low pressure will continue to affect our weather from Tuesday into Wednesday as it lifts into the Upper Midwest and the Northern Great Lakes. Behind this system, bitterly cold air moves in.
Periods of snow ought to continue in NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin, but a layer of warm air nosing into East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin which will consist of 850mb temps of around 0 to +2C could change the snow to a mix of rain and snow before colder air moves back in which would change any mixed precipitation back over to snow. At the moment, it appears that areas along and south/east of a line from Brainerd to Port Wing would have the best chance to see some mixed precip on Tuesday based on model data This Afternoon. Things could change however. High temperatures on Tuesday will mainly be in the 30s with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s.
Low pressure should be moving off to the east-northeast with some snow or flurries continuing on the backside of this storm. Highs will range from the single digits to the 20s with lows from 10 below to 10 above.
Bitterly cold air locks in with mainly dry conditions. Highs will range from the single digits below to around 10 above zero with lows from 10 below to 20 below zero.
-Water vapor satellite image from This Afternoon and the 2 possible tracks that this next storm may take. The 2nd track could result in more snow for Duluth as ENE winds off Lake Superior would be more favorable for lake enhanced snow vs. storm track number 1 which would keep winds more ESE and less favorable for lake enhancement in the Twin Ports.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Below average temperatures are likely through this period, in fact it looks downright frigid during most of this period. May see some snow sometime between the 7th-10th, but with the arctic air in place I’m not real sure if the snow would be able to push this far north or not.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH/SUPERIOR
*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing: 12 PM Monday until 6 PM CST Wednesday.
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Snow developing. Daytime accumulations of 1-2″ possible. High 28 to 33. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday Night… Occasional snow. Accumulations of 1-3″ possible. Low 28 to 31. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Occasional snow. Some mixed precipitation is also possible. Additional snowfall accumulations expected. High 31 to 34.
.Tuesday Night… Occasional snow. Some mixed precipitation is also possible early. Additional snowfall accumulations expected. Low 20 to 25.
.Wednesday… Snow possible. Total event accumulations from Monday to Wednesday of 6-10″. High 20 to 25 with falling temperatures.
.Wednesday Night… Very cold. Flurries possible. Low 0 to 5 below.
.Thursday… Very cold. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 3 to 8.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
Sunrise Monday: 7:34 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:22 PM CST