/Issued 3:43 PM CST, Friday, February 28, 2014/
No big surprise in the revised temperature outlook for March 2014 per Climate Prediction Center. Enhanced odds for below average temperatures in Minnesota and Wisconsin (See map below)
A deep snowpack and greater than 90% ice coverage on Lake Superior may play a role in keeping us cooler than average at least here in the Northland.
Rewind back to March 2013…Duluth had 4 days with a high temperature of 40F or warmer and 1 day with a high temperature of 50F or warmer. 15 days with a high temperature of at least 32F. Note: The 1st 50 degree temperature occurred on March 30th (53 degrees) Unfortunately I don’t think will see any 50s here in Duluth this March but I do think will get above freezing, and possibly even into the 40s. Will see what happens.
March climate normals – Sunrise/Sunset times for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Temperature: 25.9 degrees
Precipitation: 1.49″
Snowfall: 13.2″
Sunrise on the 1st: 6:48 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st: 6:50 AM CST
Sunset on the 1st: 5:54 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st: 7:36 PM CST
Note: As of February 27, 2014 Duluth, Minnesota sits in 2nd place for coldest winter on record. Stats below.
Duluth, MN:
Average temperature from DEC 1-FEB 27: 3.9 degrees (2nd coldest winter on record) Coldest winter on record occurred in 1874-1875 with an average temperature of 3.7 degrees. So close to the number 1 spot!
*65 days this winter with a subzero low temperature which absolutely crushed the previous record of 59 days during the winter of 1958-1959, 1916-1917, and 1874-1875.
*RECORD EVENT*
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
A record cold HIGH temperature occurred at Duluth, MN on February 27, 2014. New record -3F. Old record 0F set in 1962.
A record LOW temperature occurred at International Falls, MN on February 27, 2014. New record -36F. Old record -30F set in 1962.
Snow depth report as of February 28, 2014
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Duluth, MN: 28″
International Falls, MN: 32″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 22″
12 N of Isle, MN: 29″
Cass Lake, MN: 21″
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN: 25″
Cook, MN: 41″
Embarrass, MN: 31″
Floodwood, MN: 30″
Grand Portage, MN: 31″
4 E of Island Lake, MN: 34″
3 E of Orr, MN: 31″
Kabetogama, MN: 31″
2 S of Tower, MN: 34″
7 NW of Two Harbors, MN: 40″
Ashland, WI: 30″
Gurney, WI: 31″
Upson, WI: 31″
9 N of Bayfield, WI: 33″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 30″
Sarona, WI: 27″
Webster, WI: 28″
Still have a tremendous amount of snow on the ground across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. Many of us have at least a 20″ snow depth, some areas are still over 40″! Source, 2 PM RAP model snow depth map.
===================
Following wind chill headlines issued by the NWS Duluth, MN
*WIND CHILL WARNING*
A wind chill warning has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.
Timing:
Midnight Tonight until Noon CST Saturday.
Counties included in the warning:
Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Northern Cass MN
Central and Northern St. Louis MN
Some cities included in the warning:
International Falls
Bigfork
Grand Rapids
Cass Lake
Ely
Orr
Crane Lake
Virginia
Hibbing
Wind chill values:
35 below to 45 below. Frostbite on exposed skin under these conditions can occur in less than 10 minutes.
**A wind chill warning means the combination of very cold air and strong winds will create dangerously low wind chill values. This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken**
==================
*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
A wind chill advisory has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.
Timing:
Midnight Tonight until Noon CST Saturday.
Counties included in the advisory:
Cook MN
Lake MN
Southern St. Louis MN
Carlton MN
Pine MN
Aitkin MN
Crow Wing MN
Southern Cass MN
Some cities included in the advisory:
Grand Marais
Silver Bay
Two Harbors
Finland
Isabella
Floodwood
Duluth
Cloquet
Moose Lake
Hinckley
Pine City
Aitkin
Hill City
McGregor
Brainerd
Pine River
Leader
Wind chill values:
25 below to 40 below. Under these conditions frostbite can occur on exposed skin within 10 to 25 minutes.
**A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and wind will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken**
===================
*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
A wind chill advisory has been issued for most of Northwest Wisconsin.
Timing:
4 AM to 10 AM CST Saturday.
Counties included in the advisory:
Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Some cities included in the advisory:
Superior
Solon Springs
Port Wing
Cornucopia
Washburn
Bayfield
Siren
Grantsburg
Danbury
Minong
Shell Lake
Spooner
Trego
Hayward
Winter
Exeland
Wind chill values:
25 below to 35 below. Under these conditions frostbite can occur on exposed skin within 10 to 25 minutes.
**A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and wind will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken**
Active warnings map. Source HAMweather.com
====================
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A weak area of low pressure averaging 1012mb was over Northeastern Minnesota late This Afternoon with a cold front attached to this low tracking east-southeast out of Central Minnesota. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were common in our area Today with patchy flurries and light snow. Highs were in the single digits and low/mid teens with winds from the south or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
A decent snow event is moving through parts of Central-Eastern Wisconsin and far Southern Minnesota Today. Here’s a radar loop ending at 4:30 PM CST. Source WSI
A powerful storm is moving toward California early This Evening. This storm should track generally toward the east and into the South Central Plains this weekend (Black line represents the expected storm track) This system will stay well south of the Northland so no snowstorm for us.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (February 28)
Low pressure and cold front will continue to move off to the east Tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in the Northland Tonight with flurries and snow showers ending This Evening. Lows will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with winds turning to the northwest at 5 to around 20 mph.
Saturday and Saturday Night (March 1)
A new batch of arctic air pours into the area with strong high pressure to our NW. 850mb temperatures are forecast to range from around -24 to -32C which is very impressive for early March and for any time during the winter for that matter. Highs on Saturday will range from around 10 below to the single digits above zero. Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s below. Partly cloudy skies are expected this period. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (March 2-4)
Unseasonably cold temperatures will continue through this period with mainly dry weather. Highs on Sunday and Monday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the teens, 20s, and 30s below. Temperatures warm slightly on Tuesday with highs mainly in the teens.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(March 5-10)
Temperatures will moderate closer to where they should be for this time of year, but I don’t see any significant thaw/melting occurring at least through the 10th of March. With that said the arctic air that we see this weekend/early next week should retreat into Northern parts of Canada, so at least we won’t have to deal with these ridiculous temperature departures by this time next week. There is a possibility for a little bit of snow from the 5th-7th but for the most part this period looks pretty quiet around here.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
Event: *WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR DULUTH*
Timing: Midnight Tonight until Noon CST Saturday.
Event: *WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SUPERIOR*
Timing: 4 AM until 10 AM CST Saturday.
.Tonight… Very cold with dangerous wind chills developing late. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 12 below to 17 below. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chill values of 25 below to 40 below.
.Saturday… Frigid. Mostly sunny. High 3 below to 2 above. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Morning wind chill values of 25 below to 40 below.
.Saturday Night… Bitterly cold. Mostly clear. Low 20 below to 25 below. Wind northwest around 12 mph.
.Sunday… Very cold. Mostly sunny. High 1 to 6.
.Sunday Night… Frigid. Mostly clear. Low 15 below to 20 below.
.Monday… Partly cloudy. High 2 to 7.
.Monday Night… Mostly clear. Low 10 below to 15 below.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 10 to 15.
Normal temperatures for Tomorrow
High: 29
Low: 11
Sunrise Saturday: 6:48 AM CST
Sunset Saturday: 5:54 PM CST
Tim