February 28, 2014 – Bitter cold returns this weekend; Wind chill warnings/advisories for most of the Northland Tonight-Saturday AM; Snow depths included in this post.

/Issued 3:43 PM CST, Friday, February 28, 2014/

No big surprise in the revised temperature outlook for March 2014 per Climate Prediction Center. Enhanced odds for below average temperatures in Minnesota and Wisconsin (See map below)

A deep snowpack and greater than 90% ice coverage on Lake Superior may play a role in keeping us cooler than average at least here in the Northland.

Rewind back to March 2013…Duluth had 4 days with a high temperature of 40F or warmer and 1 day with a high temperature of 50F or warmer.  15 days with a high temperature of at least 32F.  Note:  The 1st 50 degree temperature occurred on March 30th (53 degrees)  Unfortunately I don’t think will see any 50s here in Duluth this March but I do think will get above freezing, and possibly even into the 40s.  Will see what happens.

















March climate normals – Sunrise/Sunset times for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Temperature:  25.9 degrees
Precipitation:  1.49″
Snowfall:  13.2″

Sunrise on the 1st:  6:48 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st:  6:50 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  5:54 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st:  7:36 PM CST

Note:  As of February 27, 2014 Duluth, Minnesota sits in 2nd place for coldest winter on record.  Stats below.

Duluth, MN:

Average temperature from DEC 1-FEB 27:  3.9 degrees (2nd coldest winter on record)  Coldest winter on record occurred in 1874-1875 with an average temperature of 3.7 degrees.  So close to the number 1 spot!

*65 days this winter with a subzero low temperature which absolutely crushed the previous record of 59 days during the winter of 1958-1959, 1916-1917, and 1874-1875.

*RECORD EVENT*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A record cold HIGH temperature occurred at Duluth, MN on February 27, 2014.  New record -3F.  Old record 0F set in 1962.

A record LOW temperature occurred at International Falls, MN on February 27, 2014.  New record -36F. Old record -30F set in 1962.

Snow depth report as of February 28, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  28″
International Falls, MN:  32″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  22″
12 N of Isle, MN:  29″
Cass Lake, MN:  21″
12 N of Grand Rapids, MN:  25″
Cook, MN:  41″
Embarrass, MN:  31″
Floodwood, MN:  30″
Grand Portage, MN:  31″
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  34″
3 E of Orr, MN:  31″
Kabetogama, MN:  31″
2 S of Tower, MN:  34″
7 NW of Two Harbors, MN:  40″
Ashland, WI:  30″
Gurney, WI:  31″
Upson, WI:  31″
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  33″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  30″
Sarona, WI:  27″
Webster, WI:  28″

Still have a tremendous amount of snow on the ground across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Many of us have at least a 20″ snow depth, some areas are still over 40″!  Source, 2 PM RAP model snow depth map.

===================

Following wind chill headlines issued by the NWS Duluth, MN

*WIND CHILL WARNING*

A wind chill warning has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

Midnight Tonight until Noon CST Saturday.

Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Northern Cass MN
Central and Northern St. Louis MN

Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls
Bigfork
Grand Rapids
Cass Lake
Ely
Orr
Crane Lake
Virginia
Hibbing

Wind chill values:

35 below to 45 below.  Frostbite on exposed skin under these conditions can occur in less than 10 minutes.

**A wind chill warning means the combination of very cold air and strong winds will create dangerously low wind chill values.  This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken**

==================

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*

A wind chill advisory has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

Midnight Tonight until Noon CST Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Cook MN
Lake MN
Southern St. Louis MN
Carlton MN
Pine MN
Aitkin MN
Crow Wing MN
Southern Cass MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Marais
Silver Bay
Two Harbors
Finland
Isabella
Floodwood
Duluth
Cloquet
Moose Lake
Hinckley
Pine City
Aitkin
Hill City
McGregor
Brainerd
Pine River
Leader

Wind chill values:

25 below to 40 below.  Under these conditions frostbite can occur on exposed skin within 10 to 25 minutes.

**A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and wind will combine to generate low wind chills.  This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken**

===================

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*

A wind chill advisory has been issued for most of Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing:

4 AM to 10 AM CST Saturday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

Superior
Solon Springs
Port Wing
Cornucopia
Washburn
Bayfield
Siren
Grantsburg
Danbury
Minong
Shell Lake
Spooner
Trego
Hayward
Winter
Exeland

Wind chill values:

25 below to 35 below.  Under these conditions frostbite can occur on exposed skin within 10 to 25 minutes.

**A wind chill advisory means that very cold air and wind will combine to generate low wind chills.  This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken**

Active warnings map.  Source HAMweather.com

====================

Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

A weak area of low pressure averaging 1012mb was over Northeastern Minnesota late This Afternoon with a cold front attached to this low tracking east-southeast out of Central Minnesota.  Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies were common in our area Today with patchy flurries and light snow.  Highs were in the single digits and low/mid teens with winds from the south or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

A decent snow event is moving through parts of Central-Eastern Wisconsin and far Southern Minnesota Today.  Here’s a radar loop ending at 4:30 PM CST.  Source WSI













A powerful storm is moving toward California early This Evening.  This storm should track generally toward the east and into the South Central Plains this weekend (Black line represents the expected storm track) This system will stay well south of the Northland so no snowstorm for us.

















Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 28)

Low pressure and cold front will continue to move off to the east Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in the Northland Tonight with flurries and snow showers ending This Evening.  Lows will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with winds turning to the northwest at 5 to around 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (March 1)

A new batch of arctic air pours into the area with strong high pressure to our NW.  850mb temperatures are forecast to range from around -24 to -32C which is very impressive for early March and for any time during the winter for that matter.  Highs on Saturday will range from around 10 below to the single digits above zero.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens, 20s, and 30s below.  Partly cloudy skies are expected this period.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (March 2-4)

Unseasonably cold temperatures will continue through this period with mainly dry weather.  Highs on Sunday and Monday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero with lows Sunday Night and Monday Night in the teens, 20s, and 30s below.  Temperatures warm slightly on Tuesday with highs mainly in the teens.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(March 5-10)

Temperatures will moderate closer to where they should be for this time of year, but I don’t see any significant thaw/melting occurring at least through the 10th of March.  With that said the arctic air that we see this weekend/early next week should retreat into Northern parts of Canada, so at least we won’t have to deal with these ridiculous temperature departures by this time next week.  There is a possibility for a little bit of snow from the 5th-7th but for the most part this period looks pretty quiet around here.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR DULUTH*
Timing:  Midnight Tonight until Noon CST Saturday.

Event:  *WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SUPERIOR*
Timing:  4 AM until 10 AM CST Saturday.

.Tonight…  Very cold with dangerous wind chills developing late.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 12 below to 17 below.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chill values of 25 below to 40 below.

.Saturday…  Frigid.  Mostly sunny.  High 3 below to 2 above.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Morning wind chill values of 25 below to 40 below.

.Saturday Night…  Bitterly cold.  Mostly clear.  Low 20 below to 25 below.  Wind northwest around 12 mph.

.Sunday…  Very cold.  Mostly sunny.  High 1 to 6.

.Sunday Night…  Frigid.  Mostly clear.  Low 15 below to 20 below.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 2 to 7.

.Monday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 10 below to 15 below.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  29
Low:  11

Sunrise Saturday:  6:48 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   5:54 PM CST

Tim

February 27, 2014 – Weather report. The epic winter of 2013-14 continues with no end in sight; Some snow possible Friday; Lake Superior ice coverage up to 94% Today!

/Issued 3:52 PM CST, Thursday, February 27, 2014/

-94% of Lake Superior is covered by ice as of 27FEB.
-79% of the Great Lakes is covered by ice as of 26FEB.
-Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills in the Northland Today.

Late Afternoon visible satellite image of Lake Superior from February 27, 2014.















Visible satellite image from February 22, 2014.  Note the increased ice coverage on Lake Superior from the 22nd to the 27th.  Dark areas indicate open water (Bottom image)  Not much open water left Today (Top image)
















Low temperature report for This Morning February 27, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  -27F
Grand Rapids, MN:  -26F
International Falls, MN:  -33F
Ely, MN:  -26F
Duluth, MN:  -21F
Crane Lake, MN:  -36F
Orr, MN:  -33F
Cook, MN:  -31F
Cass Lake, MN:  -24F
Cloquet, MN:  -24F
Northome, MN:  -27F
Bruno, MN:  -24F
Longville, MN:  -27F
Superior, WI:  -20F
Pine River, MN:  -24F
Silver Bay, MN:  -22F
Siren, WI:  -20F
Bigfork, MN:  -27F
Aitkin, MN:  -20F
Hayward, WI:  -18F
Phillips, WI:  -16F
Embarrass, MN:  -33F
Togo, MN:  -33F
Gordon, WI:  -21F
Duluth, MN (NWS)  -23F

Wind chill report for This Morning February 27, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Grand Marais, MN:  -53F
Grand Rapids, MN:  -48F
International Falls, MN:  -46F
Ely, MN:  -45F
Littlefork, MN:  -44F
Duluth, MN:  -43F
Crane Lake, MN:  -42F
Orr, MN:  -42F
Cook, MN:  -42F
Cass Lake, MN:  -42F
Cloquet, MN:  -42F
Northome, MN:  -41F
Superior, WI:  -40F
Silver Bay, MN:  -38F
Siren, WI:  -36F
Hayward, WI:  -32F

====================

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A wind chill advisory has been issued for all of Northeast Minnesota and for parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing:

9 PM This Evening until 9 AM CST Friday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN

Douglas WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls
Grand Rapids
Walker
Brainerd
Aitkin
Hinckley
Cloquet
Duluth
Hibbing
Ely
Two Harbors
Finland
Isabella
Silver Bay
Lutsen
Grand Marais
Hovland
Grand Portage

Superior
Siren
Minong
Spooner
Shell Lake
Trego

Wind chill values:

As low as 35 below at times.  Under these conditions frostbite can occur on exposed skin in less than 20 minutes.

**A wind chill advisory means the combination of very cold air and wind will create hazardous wind chill values to those who venture outdoors**

===================

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN

A wind chill advisory has been issued for parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing:

Midnight Tonight until 9 AM CST Friday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI


Some cities included in the advisory:

Washburn
Bayfield
Port Wing
Cornucopia
Ashland
Butternut
Gile
Hurley
Upson
Montreal
Hayward
Exeland
Winter
Park Falls
Phillips

Wind chill values:

As low as 35 below at times.  Under these conditions frostbite can occur on exposed skin in less than 20 minutes.

**A wind chill advisory means the combination of very cold air and wind will create hazardous wind chill values to those who venture outdoors**

===================

Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

An epic shot of arctic air remains over the Northland late This Afternoon with 850mb temperatures of -24 to -28C with heights ranging from 5100-5220 decameters.  High temperatures were only in the single digits below to around 0 with generally light winds.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 27)

High pressure which is over Southern Minnesota This Afternoon will move to the southeast Tonight which will result in a warm air advection pattern as southerly winds kick in during the night.  The problem is that skies will remain mostly clear Tonight and with a deep snow pack and light winds in place we should see temperatures tank with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s below with a few 30s below even possible especially over Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds will turn to the south Tonight at around 5-15 mph.

Area in light blue is under a wind chill advisory Tonight/Friday AM.  Source, HAMweather















Friday and Friday Night (February 28)

A weak system moves through the region Tomorrow which will lead to cloudier skies along with some light snow and flurries into Tomorrow Evening.  Most locations should only pick up around 1″ of snow on Friday, but a few locales might get as much as 2-3″ of new snow. Highs Tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tomorrow Night in the single digits below to around 20 below zero.  South winds on Friday will shift to the northwest Friday Night at 5-20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (March 1-3)

Frigid temperatures will continue this period as a new arctic high moves southeast into the Upper Midwest.  Looks mainly dry Saturday through Monday with highs in the single digits below to single digits above zero.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the teens, 20s, and even some 30s below.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(March 4-9)

Below average temperatures should continue through this period although probably not quite as extreme as what were seeing now.  May see a few snow events as well between the 5th-9th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Timing:  9 PM Tonight until 9 AM CST Friday.


.Tonight…  Frigid.  Mostly clear.  Low 13 below to 18 below.  Light wind becoming south Overnight.  Wind chill values as low as 35 below zero.

.Friday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Light snow and flurries possible.  Accumulations of 1-2″ possible.  High 8 to 13.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 12 below to 17 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 0 to 5.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 below to 20 below.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 1 to 6.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 15 below to 20 below.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 2 to 7.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  28
Low:  11

Sunrise Friday:  6:50 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:53 PM CST

Tim






February 26, 2014 – Weather report; Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills Tonight and Thursday; Wind chill warning for the entire Northland.

/Issued 3:53 PM CST, Wednesday, February 26, 2014/

—Refer to this post for wind chill warning and winter weather advisory information—

http://timsweatherblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/february-26-2014-weather-update.html

Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Low pressure averaging 998mb is passing just north of Lake Superior Today with a cold front attached to this low pushing south/east out of Northwest Minnesota This Afternoon.  Gusty winds along with some snow showers and flurries were the main weather stories in the Northland Today.  High temperatures were in the single digits and teens with winds from the southwest or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts from 25 to 40 mph.  The gusty winds did cause areas of blowing and drifting snow around the area Today.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 26)

Bitterly cold temperatures in our area Tonight with lows in the teens, 20s, and 30s below.  A potent cold front will exit to our south/east early This Evening.  Scattered snow showers and flurries should end during the Evening, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies Tonight.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts from 25 to 40+ mph continuing mainly before Midnight.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow with reduced visibility will continue to be a problem Tonight.  Dangerous wind chill values ranging from 30 below to 45 below will also develop during the night.

RAP model temperature forecast valid at 6 AM CST Thursday.  Crazy cold!  Much of Minnesota and Western-Northern Wisconsin could dip into the 20s and 30s below by dawn, perhaps even some -40s mixed in as well.













Thursday and Thursday Night (February 27)

Arctic high pressure will be moving through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this period with an impressive shot of arctic air covering our area.  Highs will range from around 10 below to 0 with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.  Northwest winds will turn to the south by Tomorrow Night with wind speeds in the 10 to 15 mph range.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (February 28-March 2)

Snow showers and flurries could affect the Northland on Friday as a low pressure system moves through the region.  Dry weather returns for Saturday and Sunday.  Highs are forecast to range from the single digits below to around 10 above.  Lows Friday Night and Saturday Night will be in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(March 3-8)

Below average temperatures are expected to continue through this period with not much snow expected the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WIND CHILL WARNING FOR DULUTH*
Timing:  6 PM This Evening until Noon CST Thursday.

Event:  *WIND CHILL WARNING FOR SUPERIOR*
Timing:  10 PM This Evening until Noon CST Thursday.

.Tonight…  Bitterly cold.  Windy with dangerous wind chills.  Low 19 below to 24 below.  Scattered snow showers and flurries early.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph This Evening.  Wind chill values as low as 45 below.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow possible mainly before Midnight.

.Thursday…  Frigid.  Mostly sunny.  High 0 to 5 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chill values 30 below to 45 below before Noon.

.Thursday Night…  Very cold.  Mostly clear.  Low 15 below to 20 below.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 3 to 8.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 12 below to 17 below.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 0 to 5.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 below to 20 below.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 1 to 6.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  28
Low:  10

Sunrise Thursday:  6:52 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:52 PM CST

Tim

February 26, 2014 – Weather Update; Barbaric cold returns Tonight/Thursday.

/Issued 11:25 AM CST, Wednesday, February 26, 2014

***Life-threatening cold possible Tonight/Thursday Morning***

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

*WIND CHILL WARNING*

A wind chill warning has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

6 PM This Evening until 2 PM CST Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Northern and Central St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN

Some cities included in the warning:

Crane Lake
Ely
Hibbing
Two Harbors
Silver Bay
Isabella
Finland
Lutsen
Grand Marais
Hovland
Grand Portage

Wind chill values:

25 below to 40 below This Evening becoming 35 below to 50 below after Midnight.  Conditions will gradually improve Thursday Morning and Afternoon.  Frostbite could occur in less than 10 minutes on any exposed skin.

**A wind chill warning means the combination of very cold air and wind will create dangerously low wind chill values.  This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken**

===================

*WIND CHILL WARNING*

A wind chill warning has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

6 PM This Evening until Noon CST Thursday.

Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
Southern St. Louis MN

Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls
Bigfork
Grand Rapids
Cass Lake
Walker
Leader
Brainerd
Hill City
Aitkin
McGregor
Hinckley
Cloquet
Duluth
Floodwood

Wind chill values:

25 below to 40 below This Evening becoming 35 below to 45 below after Midnight.  Conditions will gradually improve Thursday Morning.  Frostbite could occur in 10 minutes or less on any exposed skin.

**A wind chill warning means the combination of very cold air and wind will create dangerously low wind chill values.  This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken**

=================

*WIND CHILL WARNING*
A wind chill advisory has been issued for all of Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing:

10 PM This Evening until Noon CST Thursday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

Superior
Solon Springs
Port Wing
Washburn
Bayfield
Ashland
Butternut
Gile
Hurley
Upson
Siren
Grantsburg
Minong
Shell Lake
Trego
Spooner
Exeland
Winter
Hayward
Park Falls
Phillips

Wind chill values:

20 below to 30 below This Evening becoming 30 below to 40 below after Midnight.  Conditions will gradually improve Thursday Morning.  Frostbite could occur in 10 minutes or less on any exposed skin.

**A wind chill warning means the combination of very cold air and wind will create dangerously low wind chill values.  This will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia or death if precautions are not taken**

====================

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of East Central Minnesota and for a small part of Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing:

Until Midnight CST Tonight.

Counties included in the advisory:

Southern Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Southern Aitkin MN
Pine MN

Burnett WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

Pine River
Leader
Brainerd
Pine Center
Aitkin
McGregor
Hinckley
Pine City
Siren
Grantsburg

Discussion:

Light snow and gusty winds will occur This Afternoon and Evening.  Snowfall accumulations will be less than 1″.  Northwest winds at 15 to 30 mph with occasional gusts to 40 mph through This Evening which will result in considerable blowing and drifting snow.  Visibility may be reduced to less than a mile at times through This Evening.

**A winter weather advisory for snow and blowing snow means that visibilities will be limited due to a combination of falling and blowing snow.  Use caution while traveling especially in open areas that are more exposed to the wind where larger snow drifts form.  Roads may be slick and hazardous so allow extra time to reach your destination**

==================

Lots of winter weather headlines in effect across Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Purple area=Winter Weather Advisory.
Light blue area=Wind Chill Advisory.

Source, HAMweather.com

Tim

February 25, 2014 – Weather report. Duluth on track for the coldest winter on record; Blizzard warning for parts of MN on Wednesday; Dangerous wind chills/Even colder temperatures later this week.

/Issued 3:26 PM CST, Tuesday, February 25, 2014/

*Temperatures at the 850mb level will rival those we saw during the January arctic blasts.  Here’s the 850mb temperature forecast valid at Midnight CST Thursday.  Unreal!  The yellow and light green colors represent -34 to -36C 850mb temperatures.  Source, unisys weather.














One surge of arctic air moves out while the next one organizes to our north across Manitoba/Ontario (Note the large area of yellow-green colors to our north) This map is valid for 6 PM CST Thursday.  Source, unisys weather.

















===================

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A wind chill advisory has been issued for all of Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

Until 11 AM CST Wednesday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Pine MN
Carlton MN
St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

International Falls
Grand Rapids
Walker
Brainerd
Aitkin
Hinckley
Cloquet
Duluth
Hibbing
Ely
Two Harbors
Silver Bay
Grand Marais

Wind chill values:

25 below to 40 below, possibly as low as 45 below for a time over the Arrowhead of Minnesota before dawn.  Frostbite on exposed skin under these conditions will occur in 10 to 25 minutes.

**A wind chill advisory means the combination of very cold air and winds will combine to generate very cold wind chills.  This could potentially result in hypothermia and frostbite**

================

*WIND CHILL ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A wind chill advisory has been issued for all of Northwest Wisconsin.

Timing:

9 PM This Evening until 11 AM CST Wednesday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Douglas WI
Bayfield WI
Ashland WI
Iron WI
Burnett WI
Washburn WI
Sawyer WI
Price WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

Superior
Bayfield
Ashland
Hurley
Siren
Shell Lake
Hayward
Park Falls

Wind chill values:

25 below to 40 below.   Frostbite on exposed skin under these conditions will occur in 10 to 25 minutes.

**A wind chill advisory means the combination of very cold air and winds will combine to generate very cold wind chills.  This could potentially result in hypothermia and frostbite**

=================

Cold weather stats
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Today February 25 marks the 62nd day this winter with a sub-zero low temperature at Duluth, MN.  The unofficial end to winter 2013-14 is March 1, by then we should get to 65 days.  By the way we already shattered the previous all-time record which was 59 days with a sub-zero low temperature which occurred in 1958-59, 1916-17, and 1874-75.

Going into Today, Duluth is just 0.2 degrees shy of tying the all-time coldest winter on record which is 3.7 degrees in 1874-75.  The average temperature so far this winter (2013-14) is 3.9 degrees.  Note:  When all is said and done I do think this winter will end up as being the coldest ever in the Twin Ports.

International Falls stats:

67 days so far this winter with a sub-zero low temperature.  The record is 70 days set in 1977-78.  With below zero low temperatures expected the rest of this week, I’Falls should tie the all-time record of 70 days.

4th coldest winter on record through February 24 with an average temperature of -2.4 degrees.  The coldest winter on record is -3.9 degrees which occurred in 1916-17.

Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

High pressure averaging 1040mb is over Northern Montana as of late Afternoon.  Bitterly cold temperatures across the Upper Midwest Today with 850mb temperatures around -26C.  Afternoon temperatures were generally in the single digits with northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Late day wind chills ranged from the single digits to the 20s below zero.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (February 25)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with lows in the single digits, teens, and 20s below.  West winds are forecast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.  Some blowing and drifting snow is possible Tonight especially in open areas.

Red=Blizzard warning
Light blue=Wind chill advisory
Purple=Winter weather advisory

Source:  HAMweather.com














Wednesday and Wednesday Night (February 26)

Low pressure will pass north/east of the Northland this period with a warm front and cold front slicing through the area rather rapidly.  This system won’t have much moisture to work with but there will likely be some flurries and snow showers at times through early Tomorrow Evening.  Probably won’t see more than a dusting or half inch of new snow out of this system though.

High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the single digits and teens with lows Tomorrow Night in the teens and 20s below, could even get some 30s below in the traditional cold spots.  West or southwest winds on Wednesday will turn northwest Wednesday Night.  Wind speeds are forecast to be in the 10-25 mph range with higher gusts certainly possible.  Some blowing and drifting snow is possible especially in open areas.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (February 27-March 1)

Bitterly cold temperatures will be the main weather story through Saturday.  Highs on Thursday will only range from 10 below to around zero with lows Thursday Night in the teens, 20s, and 30s below.  Highs on Friday will be in the single digits and teens with highs on Saturday mainly in the single digits.  Lows Friday Night will range from the single digits, teens, and 20s below.

There will be one opportunity for some snow and that comes on Friday as a system moves east out of the Northern/Central Plains.  Right now it looks like the bulk of the snow will stay south of the Northland but things could change so stay tuned.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(March 2-7)

Below average temperatures are forecast to continue through this period.  Looks pretty dry as well.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR DULUTH*
Timing:  Until 11 AM CST Wednesday.

Event:  *WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR SUPERIOR*
Timing:  9 PM This Evening until 11 AM CST Wednesday.

.Tonight…  Frigid.  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 below to 15 below.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.  Dangerous wind chill values of 25 below to 40 below.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow possible.

.Wednesday…  Windy.  Cold.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Snow showers and flurries possible especially during the Afternoon.  High 8 to 13.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph.  Dangerous wind chill values of 25 below to 40 below during the Morning.  Areas of blowing and drifting snow possible.

.Wednesday Night…  Bitterly cold.  Partly cloudy.  Low 16 below to 21 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Frigid.  Partly cloudy.  High 0 to 5 below.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 below to 20 below.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 3 to 8.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 12 below to 17 below.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 2 to 7.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  27
Low:  10

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:54 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:50 PM CST

Tim