March 31, 2014 – Weather report. Powerful spring storm hitting the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Tonight-Tuesday AM; Another storm possible late this week.

/Issued 4:00 PM CDT, Monday, March 31, 2014/

Water vapor satellite image from 4:45 PM Today.  You can’t get a better looking storm than what were seeing Today.  Incredible dynamics – incredible storm!  Source, COD website.

Red L=Center of the low as of 4 PM Today.

Dark blue line=Short term storm track forecast.

Black line=Upper level trough position.













Radar loop ending at 4:45 PM Today.  Source, WSI.

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
Pink=Mixed precip















Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

What a day! A powerful spring storm with the center of it over extreme Southeast South Dakota (990mb) late This Afternoon has literally produced everything in terms of weather across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Today.  A blizzard continues over parts of the Northern Plains while isolated severe thunderstorms have erupted over far SE South Dakota and Southwest Minnesota with 2 tornado warnings so far.  A band of rain has been lifting through the Northland Today, and temperatures have cooled from where they were earlier in the day so that some of the rain has turned over to freezing rain especially in higher terrain areas along the North and South Shore of Lake Superior.  Temperatures late This Afternoon were all over the place and ranged from the 40s in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and around the Brainerd Lakes with 30s elsewhere except for the Borderland region where temperatures were in the 20s.  Winds were from the east or northeast Today at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to over 40 mph in parts of the area.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 31)

Strong area of low pressure tracks from Southwest Minnesota This Evening to Northern Wisconsin Overnight.

Expect rounds of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with precipitation possibly mixing with and changing to sleet or snow at times.

Northern and Western parts of the Northland will see snow or a mixture of precipitation through the night with a few thunderstorms also possible.  Some of the snow could be heavy at times with 1-2″ per hour snowfall rates.

The Twin Ports, North Shore and Arrowhead region will see rain, freezing rain, possibly some sleet and even a thunderstorm or two Tonight.  Precipitation will gradually mix with and turn to snow after Midnight, probably closer to daybreak though.  Areas of fog are also possible Tonight mainly near Lake Superior.

Low temperatures Tonight will vary from the teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s and 30s elsewhere. Winds out of the east/northeast will turn to the north, south, or west later in the night.  Wind speeds will average 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (April 1)

Deep low pressure will exit the Northland to the ENE during this period.  Snow, snow showers, and flurries will continue on Tuesday but should end from west to east through the day.  Dry weather returns Tomorrow Night under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the teens and 20s so yes below average temperatures return to the area Tomorrow behind this storm.  Lows Tuesday Night will range from the single digits to around 20.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible during the day.

Looking ahead:  Will stay relatively quiet here in the Northland on Wednesday into most of Thursday.  The late Thursday and Friday time frame will have to be monitored for another possible storm which will lift northeast out of the Central Plains.  The exact track of this system is uncertain, but if it does come far enough north, then most of the Northland can expect another round of snow or a wintry mix of precipitation later this week.  Stay tuned.

Here’s my snowfall accumulation forecast valid through Tuesday.

Note:  Locations south/east of that 3-7″ range may see 1-2″ of snow by Tuesday.

Tim

March 31, 2014 – 1 PM weather update.

/Issued 1:10 PM CDT, Monday, March 31, 2014/


Powerful spring storm underway

As of 1 PM CDT:  Low pressure of 992mb was over extreme Southeast South Dakota with very heavy snow, blizzard conditions, and thundersnow occurring across an area from Central South Dakota through Eastern North Dakota and into Northwest Minnesota.  East of there, there is a band of rain that has been lifting toward the north/northeast through Central and Eastern Minnesota and Western/Northern Wisconsin.

Temperature extremes early This Afternoon were quite impressive in Minnesota with upper teens over Northwestern Minnesota while 60s were found in Southwestern Minnesota.

Radar loop ending at 12:45 PM CDT.  Source, WSI.

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
Pink=Mixed precipitation













Water vapor satellite image from 12:30 PM Today. Source, Unisys weather.

L=Low pressure
Black line=Upper trough
Purple line=Short term storm track forecast

















Future radar per HRRR model (15z or 10 AM run)

4 PM Today – most of the precip by late This Afternoon is expected to be be over Northern Minnesota with more development which may include a few t’storms in the Southwest 1/2 of Minnesota while a blizzard rages on over the Northern Plains.






9 PM Tonight – a line of showers and possibly a few t’storms moves into Western Wisconsin and the Twin Ports area.  


















1 AM Tuesday Morning 


















It still appears that the heaviest snow will remain west-northwest of Duluth and Superior Tonight.  For the Twin Ports itself I think there is still a chance we see some sleet mixed in with the rain at times, and there is still an outside chance for patchy freezing rain as temperatures drop a few degrees (possibly) through the Evening hours.  At 1 PM temperatures were in the 32-35 degree range so were in that marginal territory where we could see some mixed precipitation develop in some parts of the area.

Strong east to northeast winds will also continue in the Twin Ports through the Evening hours.  Expect wind speeds in the 15 to 30 mph range with gusts possibly reaching 40 mph.

Current headline map with early Afternoon temperatures overlaid. 

Red=Blizzard Warning
Pink=Winter Storm Warning
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory

Yes, that is correct, a blizzard warning where it’s 63 degrees at the moment in a part of Southwest Minnesota.  Crazy, isn’t it?















Lightning data map from 12:20 PM Today.  That circled area in Eastern North Dakota represents cloud to ground lightning strikes in heavy snowfall!















Meso-Discussion area for heavy snow and blizzard conditions through the Afternoon hours. Source, Storm Prediction Center.
















Thunderstorm outlook valid through This Evening (Green outlined area on the map has a chance for non-severe thunderstorms, but there is a slight chance for thunderstorms to become severe in South Central Minnesota with large hail, damaging winds, and even a small chance for an isolated tornado late This Afternoon and This Evening.  Source, NWS/Storm Prediction Center.















Tim


March 30, 2014 – Weather report. Powerful spring storm to hit the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Monday/Tuesday. Blizzard, heavy snow, significant amounts of sleet and freezing rain, high winds, rain, and t’storms are expected; Warnings and advisories in effect.

/Issued 3:06 PM CDT, Sunday, March 30, 2014/

Monday and Tuesday storm track forecast.

L=Low pressure, and the black line represents the expected storm track through Tuesday.

Blue area=Greatest chance for blizzard conditions and over 12″ of snow.
Orange area=A risk for a few strong thunderstorms Monday PM.

Note:  A few t’storms might extend as far north as the Twin Ports Monday Afternoon or Evening.

Expected storm impacts for Monday through Tuesday Morning.

Note the mix to snow areas on the map also have a chance to pick up 2-6″ of snow especially Monday Evening through Tuesday AM.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

March 23-29, 2014

High temperatures:

3/23:  19F/18 degrees below normal
3/24:  25F/13 degrees below normal
3/25:  19F/19 degrees below normal
3/26:  29F/10 degrees below normal
3/27:  30F/9 degrees below normal
3/28:  32F/8 degrees below normal
3/29:  37F/3 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

3/23:  -4F/24 degrees below normal
3/24:  -1F/22 degrees below normal
3/25:  0F/21 degrees below normal
3/26:  -1F/23 degrees below normal
3/27:  26F/4 degrees above normal
3/28:  15F/7 degrees below normal
3/29:  13F/10 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.61″
Normal:  0.38″
Departure:  +0.23″

Last week’s temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.


















Last week’s precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.





















——————————-

Following headlines issued by the National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*WINTER STORM WARNING*

A winter storm warning has been issued for parts of Northern Minnesota.

Timing:

7 AM Monday until 10 AM CDT Tuesday.

Counties included in the warning:

Koochiching MN
Northern Itasca MN
Northern Cass MN
Northern St. Louis MN

Some cities included in the warning:

International Falls
Littlefork
Northome
Togo
Bigfork
Cass Lake
Walker
Ely
Crane Lake
Orr

Discussion:

Rain or mixed precipitation will begin either late Tonight or Monday Morning with any mixed precipitation turning to snow during the day on Monday.  Snow could be heavy at times Monday Afternoon through Monday Night with snow tapering off on Tuesday.

Total snowfall accumulations:

6-12″ with locally higher amounts possible.

Winds/visibility:

North to northeast winds will gust to 25 mph leading to some blowing snow.  Visibilities will drop to one quarter mile or less at times in heavy snow.

Impacts:

The storm will have a major impact on travel for the start of the upcoming week.  Snow covered and slippery roads are expected.  Travel will be hazardous as the snow piles up.

**A winter storm warning for heavy snow means that heavy snow accumulation is anticipated and that snowfall rates of one inch per hour or greater can be expected at times.  Expect snow and ice covered roads and visibility less than one quarter mile.  If you must travel exercise extreme caution and allow extra time to reach your destination.  Let someone know your travel route and expected arrival time and have a working cell phone in case you become stranded.  Keep a winter survival kit in your vehicle including a flashlight, food, and water.  If you choose to travel be aware that you may become stranded and that it may take several hours for help to arrive**

——————————-

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

7 AM Monday until 10 AM CDT Tuesday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Cook MN
Lake MN
Southern St. Louis MN
Carlton MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Marais
Hovland
Lutsen
Finland
Isabella
Silver Bay
Two Harbors
Floodwood
Duluth
Cloquet
Moose Lake

Discussion:

Ice accumulations around a quarter inch are expected.  Snowfall accumulations generally around 1″ in Southern St. Louis and Carlton Counties with heavier amounts of 2-6″ possible over Northern portions of Lake and Cook Counties.  Note:  An upgrade to an ice storm warning is possible.

Winds and visibility:

Northeast winds will gust to 25 mph well inland but be in excess of 40 mph at times near Lake Superior.

Impacts:

The storm will have a major impact on travel for the start of the upcoming week with strong winds and slippery roads developing.

**A winter weather advisory for mixed precipitation means a mixture of freezing rain, snow, and sleet is expected.  Anyone with travel plans should be prepared for slippery roads and reduced visibility.  Slow down when driving and allow extra stopping distance because you may lose control of your vehicle if you try to slow down or stop quickly**

—————————

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of Northern and Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

7 AM Monday until 10 AM CDT Tuesday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Southern Itasca MN
Central St. Louis MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

Grand Rapids
Hibbing

Discussion:

Ice accumulations of around a quarter inch are possible along with snow accumulations of up to 6″.  Mixed precipitation on Monday will gradually turn to snow Monday Night.

—————————-

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for parts of East Central Minnesota.

Timing:

7 PM Monday until 10 AM CDT Tuesday.

Counties included in the advisory:

Southern Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN

Some cities included in the advisory:

Leader
Brainerd
Hill City
Aitkin
McGregor

Discussion:

A mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will develop Monday Evening which will then turn to all snow late Monday Night.  Total snowfall accumulations ranging from 2-6″ are possible.

——————————

*WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*

A winter weather advisory has been issued for a small part of Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Counties included in the advisory:

Pine MN
Douglas WI

Some cities included in the advisory:

Hinckley
Bruno
Sandstone
Pine City
Superior
Solon Springs

Discussion:

Freezing rain, sleet, and rain will occur in the advisory area with ice accumulations up to a quarter inch possible with snow accumulations generally less than 2″.

———————————–

Colorful map!

Red=Blizzard Warning
Green=Blizzard Watch
Pink=Winter Storm Warning
Purple=Winter Weather Advisory

Stay safe everyone!



















Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Spring is definitely in the air Today as high temperatures soared into the 40s and 50s which is wait for it…Above average for late March, yes above average if you can believe that.  Partly to mostly cloudy and hazy conditions were common Today with winds south, east, or north at around 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight (March 30)

Low pressure in the 990-993mb range will head out of the Northern/Central Rockies and into Central/Northern Nebraska Overnight while a cold front currently over Northern Minnesota becomes stationary.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with lows in the 30s with 20s possible over the Arrowhead.  Winds will turn to the east and northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts developing near Lake Superior Overnight.

There could be some patchy freezing drizzle along the North Shore of Lake Superior late Tonight, and some more precipitation in the form of rain, sleet, or snow may affect far Northern Minnesota Overnight, outside of these areas it should remain dry.

Monday and Monday Night (March 31)

A powerful early spring storm will hit the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during this period as a strong area of low pressure heads northeast out of Nebraska.  Current model data has this low moving into East Central Minnesota Monday Evening and then out into Western-Central Lake Superior by Tuesday Morning.

Far Northern Minnesota (Borderland area) will have the best chance at seeing all snow during this period and the snow could be heavy at times.

Eastern Minnesota and most of Northwest Wisconsin should see mainly rain although some sleet or even freezing rain can’t be ruled out during the day on Monday.

Areas in between have the greatest chance for seeing a wintry mix of precipitation types in the form of sleet and freezing rain.  In fact if freezing rain becomes the dominant precipitation type, then we could see some significant amounts of ice accumulation (Possibly over 0.25″)  especially along the North Shore and Twin Ports corridor and extending west/northwest from that area.

There is also a chance for a few thunderstorms from Monday Afternoon through Monday Evening mainly over East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with CAPE values approaching 200 j/kg.

High temperatures Tomorrow will range from the 20s along the Minnesota/Ontario border with 30s most other areas except for possible 40s in Southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Monday Night will range widely with single digits and teens across Northern Minnesota to the 20s and lower 30s in Northwest Wisconsin.

Winds on Monday will be out of the east or northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 30-40+ mph possible near Lake Superior.  Winds Monday Night will vary as low pressure passes over or near parts of the Northland so expect either north, east, or south winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tuesday through Thursday (April 1-3)

Strong area of low pressure will be exiting to our E/NE on Tuesday with snow showers and flurries affecting the Northland on the back side of this powerful spring storm.  Will dry out Tuesday Night through Thursday Morning, and then the next potential storm to come out of the Plains may move into the Upper Midwest on Thursday with possible snow or mixed precipitation spreading into parts of the Northland.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 20s to around 30 with teens in far Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will mainly be in the 30s.  Lows Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(April 4-9)

Snow or mixed precipitation is possible on Friday (4th) as low pressure lifts northeast toward the Great Lakes.  Snow showers might linger into Saturday (5th) as this system pulls away.  Below average temperatures are forecast through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  7 AM Monday until 10 AM CDT Tuesday.

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Turning windy.  Patchy light freezing drizzle possible toward dawn.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind variable around 10 mph, becoming east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts developing Overnight.

.Monday…  Windy.  East to northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.  Light freezing drizzle possible during the Morning with Afternoon sleet and freezing rain.  Thunder possible during the Afternoon. High 30 to 33.

.Monday Night…  Windy especially before Midnight.  Freezing rain and sleet especially before Midnight. Rain is also possible.  Snow showers and flurries developing Overnight.  Thunder possible during the Evening.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph during the Evening.  Wind becoming northwest late.  Total ice accumulations of up to 0.25″ possible.

.Tuesday…  Breezy with occasional snow showers and flurries.  Snow accumulations less than 1″.  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night…  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Wednesday…  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 17 to 22.

.Thursday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  40
Low:  23

Sunrise Monday:  6:50 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:37 PM CDT

Tim

March 29, 2014 – Weather report. Powerful spring storm Monday and Tuesday – heavy snow, high winds, thunder, ice, rain, blizzard; Sunday will be nice though.

/Issued 3:06 PM CDT, Saturday, March 29, 2014/

Best guess as to what we may see – precipitation type wise during the day Monday.  We should see the snow line shift gradually toward the southeast Monday Night and during the early Morning hours of Tuesday. 6-10″+ amounts appear most likely in Northern Minnesota, generally over and to the west/northwest of the Iron Range.  Several inches of snow are also possible in the mix precip area Monday Night/Tuesday AM.













Headline map – most of these are for Monday and Tuesday.

Blue=Winter Storm Watch
Green=Blizzard Watch


















————————————-

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm watch has been issued for all of Northern and Northeast Minnesota.

Timing:

Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon.

Counties included in the watch:

Koochiching MN
Itasca MN
Cass MN
Crow Wing MN
Aitkin MN
Carlton MN
St. Louis MN
Lake MN
Cook MN

Some cities included in the watch:

International Falls
Bigfork
Grand Rapids
Cass Lake
Walker
Leader
Brainerd
Aitkin
Hill City
McGregor
Moose Lake
Cloquet
Duluth
Floodwood
Hibbing
Ely
Crane Lake
Two Harbors
Silver Bay
Isabella
Finland
Lutsen
Grand Marais
Hovland

Discussion:

There is potential for 6-10″ or more of snow as well as some ice accumulation in the watch area. Precipitation should begin either late Sunday Night or during the day Monday and will continue through Tuesday Morning.

Winds/Visibility:

Northeast winds will gust to 25 mph but winds will gust over 40 mph at times near Lake Superior.  The snow and blowing snow will result in significant visibility restrictions.

Impacts:

The storm will have a major impact on travel for the start of the upcoming work week with strong winds and snow covered and slippery roads.

**A winter storm watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.  Continue to monitor the latest forecasts**

———————————–

*WINTER STORM WATCH*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A winter storm watch has been issued for a small part of Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota.

Timing:

Monday Evening through Tuesday Afternoon.

Counties included in the watch:

Pine MN
Douglas WI

Some cities included in the watch:

Hinckley
Sandstone
Bruno
Pine City
Superior
Solon Springs

Discussion:

Rain or possible freezing rain and sleet should develop on Monday with precipitation gradually turning to snow Monday Night with the potential for snow accumulations of up to 6″ possible.

Winds/Visibility:

Northeast winds will gust to 25 mph but winds will gust over 40 mph at times near Lake Superior.  The snow and blowing snow will result in significant visibility restrictions.

Impacts:

The storm will have a major impact on travel for the start of the upcoming work week with strong winds and snow covered and slippery roads.

**A winter storm watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.  Continue to monitor the latest forecasts**

———————————-

Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

High pressure ridge averaging 1024mb stretches from North Texas to Central Lake Superior late This Afternoon with low pressure of 1002mb over Southwest Saskatchewan.  Southerly flow and a warm air advection pattern is well underway in the Northland Today.  Temperatures were pretty close to average or at least within a few degrees of average, that’s nice to say for a change.  Highs were in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 29)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected with a chance for a few snow showers or flurries along the Ontario-Minnesota border.  Low temperatures will occur prior to Midnight with teens and 20s common in our area, might even see some single digits in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  After Midnight temperatures should rise a bit.  South or east winds are forecast at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (March 30)

A cold front is expected to sag south/east into the Northland during this period while low pressure of around 993mb moves into the Western High Plains.

Looks dry Tomorrow and quite mild with highs in the 40s with some 50s even possible but it will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with winds out of the southwest, north, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Mostly cloudy skies will be common Sunday Night with the possibility for some rain, snow, sleet, or freezing rain although the best chance for this looks like it will be in Northern Minnesota and along the Ontario border.

Lows Tomorrow Night will be in the 30s with east or northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

Monday through Wednesday (March 31-April 2)

All the attention is squarely on the large spring storm that will impact the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Monday and Tuesday.

Current model data takes the area of low pressure on a northeast track out of Southern/Central Nebraska Monday Morning to Western and Central Wisconsin Monday Night and then to the Central/Eastern Great Lakes region by Tuesday.  Note:  There’s still a chance that we will see some fluctuations in the storm track during the next 24 hours so stay tuned.

-Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin have the greatest chance for seeing rain the longest from this storm, although even these areas should see the rain mix with and gradually change to snow sometime late Monday Night or Tuesday Morning.

-Northeast Minnesota as well as Northern Minnesota will start as rain, sleet, or freezing rain with precipitation trending to all snow from northwest-southeast from Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening.

Note:  Locations near Lake Superior could see more of a freezing rain and or sleet event as ENE winds coming off the 90% ice covered lake potentially keeps it cool enough to create a setup where there is sleet or freezing rain from Monday into Monday Evening before precipitation turns over to snow late Monday Night/Tuesday AM.

It also wouldn’t shock me to see a few isolated thunderstorms especially over East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin Monday or Monday Evening.

This storm has the potential to cause significant problems across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with huge amounts of snow, blizzard conditions, possible ice accumulations, as well as rain which will fall on top of the snow already on the ground which may lead to some flooding issues.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the 20s and 30s in Northern Minnesota to the 30s and 40s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s.  Lows Monday Night will range from the single digits to around 30.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the teens and 20s.

Snow should be tapering off during the day Tuesday as low pressure exits to our east.  Dry weather is forecast Tuesday Night into Wednesday the way it looks now.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(April 3-8)

Below average temperatures can be expected through this period.  Another storm coming out of the Southern/Central Plains could bring some snow or mixed precipitation to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from Thursday into Friday (3rd-4th)  Remains to be seen just how far north this system gets, there is a chance that it will miss our area.  Could be some additional showers of snow or mixed precipitation at times between the 6th-8th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER STORM WATCH for Duluth*
Timing:  Monday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon.

Event:  *WINTER STORM WATCH for Superior*
Timing:  Monday Evening through Tuesday Afternoon.

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 43 to 48 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday…  Freezing rain, sleet, or rain.  Breezy.  Thunder possible.  High 30 to 33.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Monday Night…  Freezing rain, sleet, or rain gradually changing to snow during the night.  Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday…  Snow possible during the Morning.  Mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 10 to 15.

.Wednesday…  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  40
Low:  23

Sunrise Sunday:  6:52 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:35 PM CDT

Tim

March 28, 2014 – Weather report. A nice weekend ahead (50s possible over parts of the Northland on Sunday) Storm potential Sunday Night-Tuesday.

/Issued 3:01 PM CDT, Friday, March 28, 2014/

7-day precipitation forecast.  Still looks like an active pattern during the next week with copious amounts of precipitation possible over Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The Weather Prediction Center shows 1.25″-Nearly 2.00″ of precip over the area through next Friday, April 4, 2014.














Snowfall stats for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

March – through the 27th:  20.9″
Departure:  +8.9″

Annual total (July 1-March 27)  104.7″
Departure:  +27.1″

Note:  30.7″ of additional snow is needed to tie the all-time snowfall record of 135.4″ which was set in 1995-96.

Snow depth report for March 28, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  30″
International Falls, MN:  27″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  17″
12 N of Isle, MN:  16″
Cass Lake, MN:  18″
Embarrass, MN:  27″
Floodwood, MN:  24″
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  35″
Kabetogama, MN:  27″
3 E of Orr, MN:  30″
Ashland, WI:  23″
Gurney, WI:  32″
Upson, WI:  26″
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  38″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  30″

March 28, 2014 snow depth map valid at 12 PM CDT Today.  Source, RAP model.


















Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Another day featuring below average temperatures but it’s not snowing, and there’s been some sunshine so all in all not too bad of an early spring day.  High temperatures were in the upper 20s to mid 30s with northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 28)

An upper level disturbance over South Dakota will track east/southeast Tonight with high pressure to our west/northwest early This Evening which will slide off to the east Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy are in the forecast Tonight with low temperatures ranging from the single digits below to teens above zero.  Northwest winds will become south/east late in the night at 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (March 29)

Southerly flow develops this period with low pressure well to our W-NW.  Warm air advection pattern kicks in on Saturday and this may lead to some light snow mainly over far Northern Minnesota Tomorrow Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are on tap with highs Saturday in the 30s to lower 40s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the teens and 20s. Winds during this period will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

Sunday through Tuesday (March 30-April 1)

Mild temperatures are expected on Sunday with highs in the 40s and 50s but temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior may be cooler if winds are out of the east.

A cold front is forecast to move south/east but stall out somewhere over Northern or possibly Central Minnesota from Sunday Night through Monday.  Meanwhile a strong area of low pressure will reach the Western High Plains late this weekend before ejecting northeast from Monday into Tuesday.

The exact track of this storm remains a little uncertain Today although it does appear that the low will remain south/east of the Northland.  Even if that does happen, temperatures look marginal for an all snow event from Sunday Night through Monday.  Instead will likely see rain across Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin while a mix of rain, snow, and possibly some freezing rain occurs over North Central Minnesota into Northeast Minnesota with this mix of precipitation trending to all snow from NW-SE from Monday Afternoon through Monday Night.

Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin should see the rain gradually mix with and change to snow Monday Night.

Note:  There is still potential for a significant winter storm over parts of the Northland next Monday and Tuesday, although at the moment this threat looks greatest across Northern into Northeast Minnesota, but since this storm is still a few days down the road we could see changes to the storm track as well as the temperature profile so be sure to check back for updates this weekend.

Snow should be winding down on Tuesday as low pressure moves into the Northern/Eastern Great Lakes region.

High temperatures on Monday will range from the 20s and 30s across Northern Minnesota to the 30s and 40s in Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Sunday Night mainly be in the 30s.  Lows Monday Night will range from the single digits and teens in Northern Minnesota to the 20s in Northwest Wisconsin.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(April 2-7)

Below average temperatures are forecast this period.  May see another storm lift northeast out of the Southern/Central Plains around the 3rd-4th.  If this system tracks far enough to the north, then there could be some more snow or rain across the Northland late next week.

Yikes! Nearing the end of March and 92% of Lake Superior is still covered by ice.  Source, GLCFS ice dynamics.













A friend of mine on Facebook shared this photo with me Today. I chuckled!
















5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming light and variable.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  High 30 to 35.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 47 to 52 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Rain or freezing rain possible.  Low 30 to 35.

.Monday…  Rain, freezing rain, sleet, or snow possible.  High 30 to 35.

.Monday Night…  Snow possible.  Low 10 to 15.

.Tuesday…  Snow possible early.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  40
Low:  22

Sunrise Saturday:  6:54 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:34 PM CDT

Tim