/Issued 4:45 PM CDT, Saturday, May 31, 2014/
18z Hi-Res NAM/WRF model rainfall total forecast valid through Monday Evening. Hefty totals across the Northland with widespread 1-3″ amounts expected.
There’s still a slight risk that rainfall amounts could exceed flash flood guidance in parts of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin – green area on the map. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Significant river flooding is possible through Thursday, June 5, 2014 (Yellow area on the map) Source, Weather Prediction Center.
Here’s a link to the flood watch that covers all of the Northland through Sunday Morning: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=flood%20watch
Rainfall report for May 31, 2014 – ending at 7 AM Today.
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
International Falls, MN: 0.89″
Brainerd, MN: 1.67″
Hibbing, MN: 0.94″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN: 1.70″
12 N of Isle, MN: 0.53″
3 NE of Nisswa, MN: 2.13″
Northome, MN: 1.10″
Cook, MN: 0.42″
Floodwood, MN: 0.24″
Kabetogama, MN: 1.29″
2 SW of Breezy Point, MN: 2.06″
2 SE of Effie, MN: 1.60″
Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
A stationary front was draped over Western and Northern portions of Minnesota Today. Abundant moisture is in place across the Upper Midwest thanks to a southerly low level flow. Dew points This Afternoon were in the 60s with PWS of 1.40-1.60″ which is extremely high. Showers and scattered thunderstorms have been erupting throughout the Northland Today with heavy rain and lightning being the biggest hazards. Cloud cover has kept instability down Today, this combined with weak winds aloft and little to no wind shear to speak of has kept any thunderstorm from becoming too strong. High temperatures Today ranged from the 50s and 60s near Lake Superior to the 70s and 80s elsewhere. Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (May 31)
Occasional rain and scattered thunderstorms will continue over our area Tonight with heavy rain possible at times as a frontal boundary remains over Western and Northern Minnesota. Mostly cloudy skies can be expected with areas of dense fog Tonight. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with south, east, or north winds at 5 to 15 mph.
Sunday and Sunday Night (June 1)
June kicks off with a bit of a summer feel to it as dew points hold in the 50s and 60s which is kind of tropical for our area. A frontal boundary will be sinking slowly toward the south/east and should setup south of the Northland by late Tomorrow Night. Occasional showers and thunderstorms are forecast at times during this period with heavy rain being the primary threat once again.
Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with a few spots possibly reaching the low 80s depending on sky conditions. It will be cooler though near Lake Superior. Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. South or east winds are forecast this period at 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Monday through Wednesday (June 2-4)
Low pressure will be moving through the Upper Midwest on Monday with a continued chance for rain and possibly a few thunderstorms. This system exits to our northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, a few showers might linger into Tuesday with dry weather expected on Wednesday.
High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior on Monday. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Near to below average temperatures are expected during this period. About the only days that look dry (for now) are Thursday and Friday (5th-6th) Could see some showers return to the Northland from the 7th-10th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
Event: *FLOOD WATCH*
Timing: Through Sunday Morning.
.Tonight… Humid with fog. Occasional rain. Isolated thunderstorms also possible. Low 57 to 62. Wind east to southeast around 10 mph.
.Sunday… Humid. Areas of fog possible. Considerable cloudiness. Occasional showers. Isolated thunderstorms possible. High 70 to 75 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday Night… Mostly cloudy. Fog possible along with showers. Low 50 to 55. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Fog possible along with showers. High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.
.Monday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Fog possible early. Low 47 to 52.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 65 to 70.
.Tuesday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50.
.Wednesday… Partly cloudy. High 69 to 74.
Normal temperatures for Today
Sunrise Sunday: 5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 8:55 PM CDT