May 31, 2014 – Weather report. Muggy, foggy, rainy & a few t’storms.

/Issued 4:45 PM CDT, Saturday, May 31, 2014/

18z Hi-Res NAM/WRF model rainfall total forecast valid through Monday Evening.  Hefty totals across the Northland with widespread 1-3″ amounts expected.















There’s still a slight risk that rainfall amounts could exceed flash flood guidance in parts of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin – green area on the map.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.
















Significant river flooding is possible through Thursday, June 5, 2014 (Yellow area on the map)  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

















Here’s a link to the flood watch that covers all of the Northland through Sunday Morning: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=flood%20watch


Rainfall report for May 31, 2014 – ending at 7 AM Today.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  0.89″
Brainerd, MN:  1.67″
Hibbing, MN:  0.94″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  1.70″
12 N of Isle, MN:  0.53″
3 NE of Nisswa, MN:  2.13″
Northome, MN:  1.10″
Cook, MN:  0.42″
Floodwood, MN:  0.24″
Kabetogama, MN:  1.29″
2 SW of Breezy Point, MN:  2.06″
2 SE of Effie, MN:  1.60″

Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

A stationary front was draped over Western and Northern portions of Minnesota Today.  Abundant moisture is in place across the Upper Midwest thanks to a southerly low level flow.  Dew points This Afternoon were in the 60s with PWS of 1.40-1.60″ which is extremely high.  Showers and scattered thunderstorms have been erupting throughout the Northland Today with heavy rain and lightning being the biggest hazards.  Cloud cover has kept instability down Today, this combined with weak winds aloft and little to no wind shear to speak of has kept any thunderstorm from becoming too strong.  High temperatures Today ranged from the 50s and 60s near Lake Superior to the 70s and 80s elsewhere.  Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 31)

Occasional rain and scattered thunderstorms will continue over our area Tonight with heavy rain possible at times as a frontal boundary remains over Western and Northern Minnesota.  Mostly cloudy skies can be expected with areas of dense fog Tonight.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with south, east, or north winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (June 1)

June kicks off with a bit of a summer feel to it as dew points hold in the 50s and 60s which is kind of tropical for our area.  A frontal boundary will be sinking slowly toward the south/east and should setup south of the Northland by late Tomorrow Night.  Occasional showers and thunderstorms are forecast at times during this period with heavy rain being the primary threat once again.

Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s with a few spots possibly reaching the low 80s depending on sky conditions.  It will be cooler though near Lake Superior.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s. South or east winds are forecast this period at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (June 2-4)

Low pressure will be moving through the Upper Midwest on Monday with a continued chance for rain and possibly a few thunderstorms.  This system exits to our northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, a few showers might linger into Tuesday with dry weather expected on Wednesday.

High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior on Monday. Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(June 5-10)

Near to below average temperatures are expected during this period.  About the only days that look dry (for now) are Thursday and Friday (5th-6th)  Could see some showers return to the Northland from the 7th-10th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *FLOOD WATCH*
Timing:  Through Sunday Morning.

.Tonight…  Humid with fog.  Occasional rain.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind east to southeast around 10 mph.

.Sunday…  Humid.  Areas of fog possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  Occasional showers.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.  High 70 to 75 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Fog possible along with showers.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Mostly cloudy.  Fog possible along with showers.  High 57 to 62 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Fog possible early.  Low 47 to 52.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 69 to 74.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  67
Low:   45

Sunrise Sunday:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:55 PM CDT

Tim

May 30, 2014 – Weather report. Showers/t-storms at times this weekend (heavy rain potential)

/Issued 3:17 PM CDT, Friday, May 30, 2014/

Significant river flooding is possible (yellow area on the map) this weekend into next week over parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.












There’s a slight risk for rainfall totals to exceed flash flood guidance (green area on the map) Saturday Evening through Sunday Evening.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.


















A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (5%) across much of Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin on Saturday.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

















Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

High pressure was centered to our east Today with low pressure off to our west.  A cold front stretches from Central South Dakota to Northwest Minnesota.  Warm temperatures continued Today with highs in the 80s to around 90, but it was cooler closer to Lake Superior where temperatures topped out in the 50s. Partly to mostly sunny skies prevailed Today with a few spotty Afternoon showers developing in Western portions of the area.  Winds Today were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 30)

Showers and thunderstorms will affect mainly Western-Northern sections of the area Tonight otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  South or east winds are forecast at 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (May 31)

Showers and thunderstorms will occur at times during this period as a cold front sags slowly south/east into the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.  Winds will be out of the south, east, or north at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (June 1-3)

Occasional showers or thunderstorms should continue Sunday and Monday as low pressure moves northeast through the Upper Midwest.  Low pressure pulls off to our northeast on Tuesday but some showers could linger on the back side of this system.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s through this period with cooler temperatures continuing near Lake Superior Sunday and Monday.  Low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s to around 60 Sunday Night and Monday Night.

Note:  Although the setup doesn’t support much in the way of severe thunderstorm development in our area this weekend, there will still be a big threat from lightning as well as heavy rain so if you have outdoor plans through Sunday make sure to pay attention to the weather and be prepared to seek shelter should a thunderstorm approach your area.  Remember when thunder roars get indoors.

As for the expected parameters this weekend:

CAPE generally around 1000 j/kg with Lifted Indices of -2 to -5C.  Dew points mostly in the 60s with PWATS ranging from 1.25″ to around 1.75″.  Winds aloft look pretty weak as does the wind shear which lowers the possibility for sustained deep convection.  However, a few of the storms could pulse to severe levels or close to severe levels from time to time with damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail being the hazards in the strongest storms.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(June 4-9)

Near to below average temperatures are forecast this period.  Showers are possible from the 4th-6th depending on the track of the next system which will come out of the Rockies during the middle/end of next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55 but in the 40s near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 73 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Monday…  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 65 to 70.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  66
Low:   44

Sunrise Saturday:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:55 PM CDT

Tim

May 29, 2014 – Weather report. Today is day number 4 this month at or above 80F at the Duluth Airport – only had 1 day all of last May; Another winner on Friday.

/Issued 4:38 PM CDT, Thursday, May 29, 2014/

There is a slight risk (green area on the map) for rainfall totals to exceed flash flood guidance Saturday Night and Sunday in Northeast Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.














7-day rainfall forecast valid through Thursday, June 5, 2014.  Still looks kinda wet across a large chunk of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with widespread rain totals of 1-4″ possible.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.


















Note:  Today marked the 4th time this month with a high temperature of at least 80F at the Duluth Airport. May 2013 produced just 1 day at or above 80F the entire month.

*The average temperature at the Duluth Airport for May 2014 (thru the 28th) 50.8 degrees or just 0.2 degrees colder than average.  I think we have a pretty good shot for an above average temperature month with just 2 days left to go in May.  If this month ends up warmer than average, then it will be the 1st month to do so since October 2013.

Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Can it get any nicer? I don’t think it can.  By now you probably know the drill, high pressure covering the Great Lakes resulting in a lot of late May sunshine across the Northland with warm temperatures continuing. Highs were mainly in the 80s with Brainerd checking in at 90 degrees late This Afternoon.  The marine layer wasn’t as pronounced Today as in previous days, but it was cooler closer to Lake Superior with highs Today ranging from the 50s to around 70.  Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to around 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 29)

Another tranquil night under clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  South or east winds will continue at 5-15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (May 30)

We will start to see some changes during this period as a cold front settles southeast into the Northern Plains. Moisture will begin to increase ahead of this front on Friday with dew points rising into the 50s to lower 60s. The atmosphere will also become more unstable especially over Western sections of the Northland where CAPE values of around 1000 to 1500 j/kg will develop.  Showers and thunderstorms could begin to affect Western parts of the area especially by Friday Night.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 70s and 80s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (May 31-June 2)

Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the Northland through this period as a cold front settles south/east into the Upper Midwest while low pressure rides E/NE along the front from Sunday into Monday.  Abundant moisture and some instability will be found along and ahead of this front from Saturday through Monday which will set the stage for a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  Note:  The overall severe thunderstorm threat still looks pretty low with weak shear and weak mid level winds, but there’s always that chance for a spotty severe thunderstorm that could put down some hail and or damaging wind gusts.  Heavy rain and lightning look to be the bigger hazards at the moment.

High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s. Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s.  Temperatures will be cooler all 3 days closer to Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday Night and Sunday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(June 3-8)

Showers could linger into Tuesday (3rd) as low pressure pulls off to our east/northeast.  The 4th-6th look mainly dry at the moment.  Showers or thunderstorms could return then toward the 7th-8th.  Near to below average temperatures are expected during this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 47 to 52 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 73 to 77 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Sunday…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night…  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Monday…  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  66
Low:   44

Sunrise Friday:  5:20 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:54 PM CDT

Tim

May 28, 2014 – Weather report. Starry skies at night, Sunshine during the day – Peaceful weather pattern through Friday.

/Issued 4:13 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 28, 2014/

7-day rainfall forecast valid through Wednesday, June 4, 2014.  A wet weather pattern could develop this weekend into early next week across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with widespread rain totals approaching or exceeding 2″.  No problems the next few days though.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.















Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

High pressure continues to cover the Great Lakes Today which is resulting in a robust marine layer closer to Lake Superior while warm temperatures continue elsewhere.  Sunny to partly cloudy skies were common Today with highs ranging from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior to the 70s and 80s farther inland.  Winds were out of south or east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Thursday Night (May 28-29)

Spotty showers and possibly a thunderstorm will be possible This Evening mainly over Koochiching and Northwest Itasca Counties in far Northern Minnesota, otherwise this period is looking dry under partly cloudy skies.  Low temperatures Tonight will range from the 30s and 40s near Lake Superior with 40s and 50s expected elsewhere.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s and 80s except for much cooler conditions once again closer to Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  South or east winds are expected through Tomorrow Night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (May 30-June 1)

Most of Friday still looks dry, but by Friday Evening/Overnight there could be some showers or thunderstorms that move into the Western-Northwest sections of the Northland as a cold front settles slowly south/east into the Upper Midwest.

This boundary will then remain over the Upper Midwest for Saturday and Sunday which will lead to some showers or thunderstorms at times.  Winds aloft look quite weak, and wind shear doesn’t look all that impressive at the moment, so the overall severe thunderstorm potential looks pretty low this weekend. However, abundant moisture will be in place with dew points of 55-65F and PWATS >1.30″, this could lead to a heavy rain threat across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin for Saturday and Sunday.

High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s on Friday with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s.  Note:  Temperatures will remain cooler closer to Lake Superior from Friday through Sunday.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(June 2-7)

Near to below average temperatures are expected this period.  Showers are possible Monday-Tuesday (2nd-3rd)

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Sunshine.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Starry skies.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 71 to 76 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Saturday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 72 to 77.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 62 to 67.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  66
Low:   44

Sunrise Thursday:  5:20 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:53 PM CDT

Tim

May 27, 2014 – Weather report. Nice! Enjoy.

/Issued 4:09 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 27, 2014/

The next few days continue to look very nice, but a wetter pattern may develop across the region starting this weekend.  Here’s the 7-day rainfall forecast valid through Tuesday, June 3, 2014.  Widespread 1.50-2.50″ totals in Minnesota with 3-5″ totals possible over parts of the Dakotas, again most of what falls in Minnesota should hold off until either Friday or over the weekend.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.














High temperature report for May 26, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  85F
Brainerd, MN:  88F
Grand Marais, MN:  85F
Hibbing, MN:  82F
Ashland, WI:  86F
Hayward, WI:  86F
Two Harbors, MN:  84F
Silver Bay, MN:  81F
Grand Rapids, MN:  81F
Longville, MN:  82F
Aitkin, MN:  88F
Superior, WI:  87F
Siren, WI:  85F
Cass Lake, MN:  80F
Floodwood, MN:  82F
Grand Portage, MN:  85F
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  84F
Butternut, WI:  85F
Upson, WI:  84F
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  90F
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  81F

*RECORD EVENT*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

A record high temperature was tied at the Duluth Airport on May 26th, 2014.  The high temperature was 85 degrees tying the record for the 26th of May which was last set in 1978.

Today’s Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

A mixed bag of weather across the Northland Today just depends where you are.  Southern parts of the area were socked in with clouds along with widespread rain This Morning with rain becoming more scattered This Afternoon.  High temperatures due to the clouds and rain were mainly in the 60s.  Farther north skies were sunny to partly cloudy through the day with highs in the 70s and lower 80s.  A much more robust marine layer developed near Lake Superior Today which kept highs in the 40s and 50s closer to the big lake.  Winds Today were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Here’s where the rain fell Monday Afternoon/Night, all of it avoided Northern Minnesota.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.















Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 27)

Showers should slowly end over Southern portions of Northwest Wisconsin This Evening.  Spotty showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm could affect West-Northwest parts of the area Tonight.  The rest of us should remain dry.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (May 28)

A few showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible in West-Northwest portions of the area with dry weather elsewhere.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with highs in the 70s and 80s with 50s near Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (May 29-31)

The chance for showers or thunderstorms looks like it will begin to increase across the Northland on Saturday as a cold front drops southeast into the Upper Midwest, prior to this Thursday and most of Friday should be dry, but a few showers or thunderstorms might begin to affect the Western-Northern parts of the area by Friday Evening/Overnight.  Highs are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s from Thursday through Saturday with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday Night and Friday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(June 1-6)

Near to below average temperatures are expected this period with possible showers on Sunday (1st) Showers are also possible from the 2nd through the 4th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Areas of fog possible late.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday…  Mostly sunny.  Areas of fog possible early.  High 67 to 72 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 71 to 76.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Saturday…  Variable cloudiness.  Showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 72 to 77.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  65
Low:   44

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:21 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:52 PM CDT

Tim