Monthly Archives: September 2014

/Issued 4:05 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 30, 2014/

Rain is on the way.  Here’s the rainfall forecast valid through Wednesday Night.  Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota should receive the greatest amount of rain Tomorrow with totals of 0.50-1.00″ with over an inch of rain possible in parts of NW Wisconsin.  Lesser amounts for Northern Minnesota.  More rain is possible later this week.  Source, 18z Hires NAM/WRF model.

Here’s Today’s weather setup and the Afternoon water vapor satellite image.  Source, COD website.

October begins on Wednesday – here are the averages for the month at the Duluth Airport.

Temperature:  43.2 degrees
Precipitation:  2.85″
Snowfall:  2.3″

Astronomical data for October

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:07 AM
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:49 AM

Sunset on the 1st:  6:48 PM
Sunset on the 31st:  5:56 PM

Weather Summary for September 30, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A strong area of low pressure averaging 996mb was over Western South Dakota late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1020mb stretching from Eastern Ontario through the Great Lakes.

We stayed dry Today with sunshine if you were away from Lake Superior, near the lake low clouds dominated but there has been some partial sunshine that has developed during the Afternoon.

High temperatures on the final day of September 2014 were in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the east at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 30)

Low pressure in the 992-995mb range will track out of Western South Dakota and into Northern North Dakota by daybreak.  A strong low level jet out ahead of this system will result in a warm and moist advection pattern Tonight and this should eventually lead to the development of rain showers across the Northland.  There may even be a few thunderstorms late Tonight especially over East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Temperatures won’t move much Tonight with readings holding in the 50s with 40s closer to Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (October 1)

An area of low pressure will lift up into Manitoba while an occluded front moves slowly toward the east across the Upper Midwest.  Rain will occur at times mainly over Eastern Minnesota, North Shore and Arrowhead through most of Northwest Wisconsin with a lesser chance for rain the farther west you are – say from the Brainerd Lakes to International Falls.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s with similar temperatures expected Wednesday Night.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the south, west, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (October 2-4)

…Much colder temperatures on the way…

Another area of low pressure is forecast to lift northeast out of the Central Plains on Thursday and should reach Lake Superior or just west/north of Lake Superior by Friday and Saturday.  As this low heads north it will deepen thanks to some additional energy which pushes southeast into the Upper Midwest on Friday which will help deepen the Plains surface low.

Most of Thursday will have slight rain chances, but the rain threat increases Thursday Evening with additional chances for rain/showers Friday and Saturday as moisture wraps around the area of low pressure to our N/NE.

Temperatures will tumble by Friday and Saturday, but first on Thursday will have highs in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s.  Friday and Saturday will feature high temperatures only in the 40s to around 50 degrees with lows Friday Night in the 30s to around 40.  Note:  There should be enough cold air in place by late Friday-Saturday to produce a rain/snow mix or an all snow scenario just north of Minnesota, and there is even a chance for a little bit of snow to mix in with the rain Friday Night-Saturday mainly along the Ontario-Minnesota border and over the higher terrain of the Arrowhead.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(October 5-10)

Below to perhaps near normal temperatures are expected during this period.  A northwest flow aloft should be in place with the potential for a few clipper type systems affecting the region with some showers at times.

500mb map valid for Friday, October 3.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

500mb map valid for Monday, October 6, 2014.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

-The main message from these two maps is that once the upper low (L on the map) develops over the Great Lakes and Minnesota on Friday it won’t be in a hurry to move out.  Tracks from Minnesota to Northern Ontario between Friday and Monday, yeah it takes a while.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible after Midnight.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday…  Occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 48 to 53.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Rain possible mainly early.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest late.

.Thursday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 61 to 66.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  High 45 to 50.

.Friday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Rain possible.  Low 34 to 39.

.Saturday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59
Low:   40

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:48 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 3:39 PM CDT, Monday, September 29, 2014/

Quite a bit of weather going on out there Today.  Big time temperature contrast depending on which side of the cold front you’re on.  A storm churning north through the Rockies is producing severe weather Today, this same storm could bring some severe weather to portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa on Tuesday.  Source, COD website/visible satellite image.

Here’s a plot of 24 hour temperature changes from Noon Today compared to Noon Sunday.  Yeah this was one potent cold front that’s for sure.  30 to nearly 40 degrees colder Today compared to Sunday across the Northland.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, MN – Airport location

*High temperature of 80 degrees on September 27 was the 1st 80 degree high temperature since August 15 (82 degrees)

*Sunday may have been the last of the 80 degree temperatures in Duluth until spring 2015.  Assuming this is the case, then September 28 for the last 80 in 2014 compared to September 7, 2013.

*RECORD EVENT*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Record high temperature at Duluth, Minnesota on September 28, 2014.

New record:  81 degrees
Previous record:  79 degrees set in 1956 and 1898.

Temperature & precipitation report for Duluth, MN – Airport location

September 21-27, 2014

High temperatures:

9/21:  64F/1 degree above normal
9/22:  72F/10 degrees above normal
9/23:  73F/11 degrees above normal
9/24:  68F/7 degrees above normal
9/25:  65F/4 degrees above normal
9/26:  76F/15 degrees above normal
9/27:  80F/20 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

9/21:  46F/2 degrees above normal
9/22:  44F/Normal
9/23:  50F/7 degrees above normal
9/24:  56F/13 degrees above normal
9/25:  53F/11 degrees above normal
9/26:  50F/8 degrees above normal
9/27:  55F/13 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.03″
Normal:  0.94″
Departure:  -0.91″

Rainfall report for September 28-29, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.33″
International Falls, MN:  0.40″
Brainerd, MN:  0.20″
Grand Marais, MN:  0.36″
Hibbing, MN:  0.19″
Ashland, WI:  0.31″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  0.44″
Bruno, MN:  0.38″
12 N of Isle, MN:  0.33″
Cass Lake, MN:  0.20″
Cook, MN:  0.44″
Embarrass, MN:  0.22″
Floodwood, MN:  0.34″
Grand Portage, MN:  0.25″
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.62″
Silver Bay, MN:  0.40″
2 S of Tower, MN:  0.44″
Finland, MN:  0.41″
9 N of Bayfield, WI:  0.27″
Gordon, WI:  0.21″
Kabetogama, MN:  0.33″

Weather Summary for September 29, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Much colder and windier across the Northland Today as a powerful cold front swept through the area last night.  A wind shift to the east took place behind that front which resulted in a 24-hour temperature change of 30 to nearly 40 degrees across the area Today.  Highs were only in the 40s with 50s in Western areas. 

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 29)

High pressure of around 1025mb will be centered over Ontario Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found over the Northland with lows in the 30s and 40s.  East or northeast winds will continue at 5-15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (September 30)
An area of high pressure will move into Eastern Canada this period while a fairly strong area of low pressure tracks N/NE out of the Western High Plains and into the Northern Plains.  Partly to mostly sunny skies are forecast across the area on Tuesday with highs in the 50s and 60s with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  Note:  There is a chance for some showers by Tuesday Night as that system to our west/southwest approaches the Upper Midwest.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (October 1-3)

Low pressure heads into Manitoba on Wednesday while an occluded front pushes through the Northland…This system should bring some showers to the area on Wednesday. 

For Thursday and Friday, low pressure passes north of our area while a secondary low heads northeast of the Plains – reaching the Central/Northern Great Lakes region by Friday.  Rain associated with that system looks like it will remain south/east of the Northland, but an upper level system dropping SE into the Upper Midwest on Friday could bring some showers to our area.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s Wednesday and Thursday with highs on Friday in the 40s and 50s.  Note:  It will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior especially on Wednesday.  Low temperatures Wednesday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Lows Thursday Night will mainly be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(October 4-9)

Near to below average temperatures are expected during this period.  A northwest flow aloft will allow a few clipper like systems to drop southeast out of Western/Central Canada, these systems could bring a few showers to the Northland from time to time but no major storm systems are expected at this time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy but some partial clearing may develop during the night.  Low 39 to 44.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 46 to 51.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible late.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 50 to 55.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 61 to 66.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  59
Low:   41

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:06 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:50 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 3:56 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 24, 2014/

Weather Summary for September 24, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A well defined upper level disturbance is tracking east/northeast through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes Today.  Mostly cloudy skies were common across the Northland Today with some showers especially over Northwest Wisconsin.  With the clouds in place highs Today were cooler than the previous two days with 60s for most of us.  Winds were out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 24)

Mostly cloudy skies will continue Tonight with some showers mainly over Northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  There could be some clearing that takes place later in the night, but most of us should remain overcast.  Lows will mainly be in the 50s with south or southeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (September 25)

The upper level disturbance which is moving across the area Today will settle S/SE of the Northland this period.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are in the forecast with an outside chance of a shower during the day Thursday.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 50s to around 60.  South or southeast winds are expected at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (September 26-28)

Mainly dry weather can be expected Friday and Saturday as an upper level ridge of high pressure sets up over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s from Friday through Sunday with lows Friday Night and Saturday Night in the 50s to around 60.  Note:  It will be cooler especially along the North Shore of Lake Superior as southerly winds blow across the Western shore of the lake through this period.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(September 29-October 4)

A few showers are possible on the 29th-30th, and again toward the 2nd-3rd of October.  Near to above average temperatures from the 29th-October 1st and near to possibly below average temperatures from the 2nd-4th of October.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  A few light showers or sprinkles possible.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  61
Low:   43

Sunrise Thursday:  6:59 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:00 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 4:46 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 23, 2014/

Well this is odd.  A disturbance currently over Nebraska and South Dakota This Afternoon moves E/NE into Western Wisconsin by early Thursday, once it reaches Wisconsin it’ll be forced south, and eventually southwest thanks to a road block/upper level ridge which forms across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes later this week.  This ridge tells the disturbance – hey you can’t move anymore to the east so you have to move south, okay not really but you get the picture.  Source, water vapor satellite image (COD website)

Weather Summary for September 23, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another great day as fall 2014 gets underway (officially)  Highs were generally in the low to mid 70s with 60s over the Arrowhead.  Winds were out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.  Sunshine did give way to increasing high level clouds over parts of the area during the Afternoon.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (September 23)

An upper level disturbance currently over South Dakota and Nebraska will churn toward the east/northeast Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the Northland with some showers developing over parts of the area during the night.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with south winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (September 24)

Mostly cloudy skies are on tap Tomorrow with scattered showers at times thanks to an upper level disturbance which will move across the Upper Midwest.  Wednesday Night should feature a partly to mostly cloudy sky with a risk for a few lingering showers.  Highs Tomorrow will mainly be in the 60s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 40s and 50s.  South winds will continue this period at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (September 25-27)

This period looks generally dry at the moment with above average temperatures for most.  An upper level ridge of high pressure will build and expand across the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest late this week, this will result in mild temperatures with mainly dry weather.

Highs from Thursday through Saturday should be in the 70s with lows Thursday Night and Friday Night in the 50s.  Note:  South winds blowing across the Western shore of Lake Superior will lead to cooler temperatures along the North Shore from Thursday through Saturday.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(September 28-October 3)

Near to above average temperatures from the 28th-October 1, after that we may see temperatures go below average or stay around average on the 2nd-3rd of October.  There are chances for some showers on the 29th-30th, and again toward the 2nd-3rd of October…None of this looks too significant at this time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 63 to 68.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 68 to 73.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 53 to 58.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  61
Low:   43

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:58 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:02 PM CDT

Tim