/Issued 4:05 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 30, 2014/
Rain is on the way. Here’s the rainfall forecast valid through Wednesday Night. Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota should receive the greatest amount of rain Tomorrow with totals of 0.50-1.00″ with over an inch of rain possible in parts of NW Wisconsin. Lesser amounts for Northern Minnesota. More rain is possible later this week. Source, 18z Hires NAM/WRF model.
Here’s Today’s weather setup and the Afternoon water vapor satellite image. Source, COD website.
October begins on Wednesday – here are the averages for the month at the Duluth Airport.
Temperature: 43.2 degrees
Precipitation: 2.85″
Snowfall: 2.3″
Astronomical data for October
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:07 AM
Sunrise on the 31st: 7:49 AM
Sunset on the 1st: 6:48 PM
Sunset on the 31st: 5:56 PM
Weather Summary for September 30, 2014
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A strong area of low pressure averaging 996mb was over Western South Dakota late This Afternoon with high pressure of 1020mb stretching from Eastern Ontario through the Great Lakes.
We stayed dry Today with sunshine if you were away from Lake Superior, near the lake low clouds dominated but there has been some partial sunshine that has developed during the Afternoon.
High temperatures on the final day of September 2014 were in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Winds were out of the east at 10 to 20 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (September 30)
Low pressure in the 992-995mb range will track out of Western South Dakota and into Northern North Dakota by daybreak. A strong low level jet out ahead of this system will result in a warm and moist advection pattern Tonight and this should eventually lead to the development of rain showers across the Northland. There may even be a few thunderstorms late Tonight especially over East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.
Temperatures won’t move much Tonight with readings holding in the 50s with 40s closer to Lake Superior. Winds will be out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (October 1)
An area of low pressure will lift up into Manitoba while an occluded front moves slowly toward the east across the Upper Midwest. Rain will occur at times mainly over Eastern Minnesota, North Shore and Arrowhead through most of Northwest Wisconsin with a lesser chance for rain the farther west you are – say from the Brainerd Lakes to International Falls.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s and 50s with similar temperatures expected Wednesday Night. Winds Tomorrow will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the south, west, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (October 2-4)
…Much colder temperatures on the way…
Another area of low pressure is forecast to lift northeast out of the Central Plains on Thursday and should reach Lake Superior or just west/north of Lake Superior by Friday and Saturday. As this low heads north it will deepen thanks to some additional energy which pushes southeast into the Upper Midwest on Friday which will help deepen the Plains surface low.
Most of Thursday will have slight rain chances, but the rain threat increases Thursday Evening with additional chances for rain/showers Friday and Saturday as moisture wraps around the area of low pressure to our N/NE.
Temperatures will tumble by Friday and Saturday, but first on Thursday will have highs in the 50s and 60s with lows Thursday Night in the 40s and 50s. Friday and Saturday will feature high temperatures only in the 40s to around 50 degrees with lows Friday Night in the 30s to around 40. Note: There should be enough cold air in place by late Friday-Saturday to produce a rain/snow mix or an all snow scenario just north of Minnesota, and there is even a chance for a little bit of snow to mix in with the rain Friday Night-Saturday mainly along the Ontario-Minnesota border and over the higher terrain of the Arrowhead.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(October 5-10)
Below to perhaps near normal temperatures are expected during this period. A northwest flow aloft should be in place with the potential for a few clipper type systems affecting the region with some showers at times.
500mb map valid for Friday, October 3. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
500mb map valid for Monday, October 6, 2014. Source, Weather Prediction Center.
-The main message from these two maps is that once the upper low (L on the map) develops over the Great Lakes and Minnesota on Friday it won’t be in a hurry to move out. Tracks from Minnesota to Northern Ontario between Friday and Monday, yeah it takes a while.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Showers possible after Midnight. Low 43 to 48. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Occasional rain. Mostly cloudy. High 48 to 53. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night… Rain possible mainly early. Mostly cloudy. Low 48 to 53. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest late.
.Thursday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 61 to 66.
.Thursday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 40 to 45.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. High 45 to 50.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Rain possible. Low 34 to 39.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. Showers possible. High 40 to 45.
Normal temperatures for Today
High: 59
Low: 40
Sunrise Wednesday: 7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 6:48 PM CDT
Tim