Monthly Archives: October 2014

/Issued 3:22 PM CDT, Friday, October 31, 2014/

Snowfall report for October 30-31, 2014
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Gile, WI (Iron County)  6.8″
1 ESE of Mercer, WI (Iron County)  4.0″
2 NW of Mellen, WI (Ashland County)  3.1″
Glidden, WI (Ashland County)  3.0″
Hurley, WI (Iron County)  3.0″
3 N of Butternut, WI (Ashland County)  2.5″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI (Bayfield County)  2.2″
14 W of Isabella, MN (Lake County)  2.0″

Gurney, WI (Iron County)  0.8″
Silver Bay, MN (Lake County)  0.5″
25 E of Ely, MN (Lake County)  0.5″
Grand Marais, MN (Cook County)  0.5″
Finland, MN (Lake County)  0.3″
Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  0.3″
3 S of Ashland, WI (Ashland County)  0.2″
Winter, WI (Sawyer County)  0.2″

Snowfall map for October 30-31, 2014 ending the Morning of the 31st.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Note:  The Duluth Airport picked up 0.1″ of snow last night, October 30, 2014.  This is the first measurable snow (0.1″ or greater accumulation) since April 30th.

November averages for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location

Temperature:  28.8 degrees
Precipitation:  2.09″
Snowfall:  13.7″

Astronomical data

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:51 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  7:31 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  5:53 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  4:23 PM CST

Weather Summary for October 31, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure of 1034mb was over northern Minnesota late This Afternoon with low pressure of 1012mb in southeast Ontario.  Quite an impressive shot of cold air as we wrap up the month of October with high temperatures Today only in the 30s, this despite a good deal of sunshine.  Lake effect snow which developed over Ashland and Iron Counties in northwest Wisconsin early This Morning did taper off This Afternoon as the setup to support lake effect begins to weaken, but before the snow ended – several inches of accumulation was reported (see totals above)  Winds Today were out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts especially before Noon.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Saturday Night (October 31-November 1)

High pressure will control the Northland’s weather this period.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur with lows Tonight in the teens and 20s; highs on Saturday will be in the 30s to low 40s; lows Saturday Night will be in the 20s to low 30s.  Winds will shift to the south at 5-15 mph with higher gusts developing Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (November 2-4)

An area of low pressure is forecast to pass west/north of our area through this period.  A few showers are possible on Monday and Tuesday but right now this still doesn’t look like it’ll be a real big deal.  High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 40s with 30s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Highs on Monday will be in the 40s to lower 50s.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s.  Lows Sunday Night and Monday Night should mainly be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(November 5-10)

Rain or snow showers are possible on Wednesday (5th)  A few showers on the 7th-8th, and perhaps some more rain or snow sometime around the 9th or 10th.  Near normal temperatures are expected during this period.  Note:  The weather pattern for next week is fairly active with several smaller systems possibly affecting the Upper Midwest.  A more important system toward the 9th-10th?  We shall see…

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Clear.  Cold.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind becoming south around 10 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 36 to 41.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 41 to 46.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 34 to 38.

.Monday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 45 to 50.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 33 to 38.

.Tuesday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  44
Low:   30

Sunrise Saturday:  7:51 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   5:53 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 5:35 PM CDT, Thursday, October 30, 2014/

NWS hazards map.

-Light blue area=Lake Effect Snow Advisory
-Gale warning for the South Shore and open waters of Lake Superior

*LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Location:

Iron County in northwest Wisconsin.

Timing:

7 PM This Evening until 11 AM CDT Friday.

Cities included in the advisory:

Upson
Gile
Montreal
Hurley

Discussion:

Snow showers developing This Evening.  The snow could start as rain or a mixture of rain and snow before going to all snow.  The heaviest snow is forecast to fall late Tonight through early Friday Morning.

Total snowfall accumulations:  

2-4″.  The highest amounts will likely be across the elevated terrain in the Gogebic Range.

Winds/Visibility:

North winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  There could be patchy blowing snow which would reduce visibility in the more intense snow bands.

Impacts:

Travel could be difficult This Evening and Overnight along U.S. Highway 2 and state Highway 77.

**A lake effect snow advisory means lake effect snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.  Lake effect snow showers typically align themselves in bands and will likely be intense enough to drop several inches in localized areas.  Use caution when traveling**

Weather Summary for October 30, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure centers of 1016mb were located well to our east and southeast This Afternoon with strong high pressure of 1034mb covering eastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba.  Cold air advection and a wind shift to the NNW is overspreading the Northland from north to south This Afternoon.  Highs Today ranged from the mid 30s to mid 40s under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  As the cold air rushes in there’s been scattered showers of rain, ice pellets, and snow across parts of northern and northeastern Minnesota.  Winds were out of the northwest Today at 10 to 20 mph with gusts topping 30 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 30)

A strong area of high pressure nearing 1040mb will build southeast into the northern Plains while low pressure moves over Lake Huron.  Northerly flow between the high and low will result in a good amount of cold air advection Tonight as 850mb temperatures fall to -8 to -12c during the night.  Winds will also be on the brisk side due to the pressure difference between the high to our west and low to our east, expect north or northwest winds sustained at 10 to 20 mph but wind gusts of 25-40 mph will likely occur Tonight.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected with scattered showers of rain, snow, and ice pellets early which will turn to snow showers and flurries during the night.  Outside of the South Shore of Lake Superior there shouldn’t be much in the way of snow accumulation Tonight.

Lows will be in the 20s but some teens are possible in northern Minnesota.  Wind chills (feels like temperature) should bottom out in the single digits and teens across the area Tonight.

Halloween Day and Night (October 31)

High pressure passes through the Upper Midwest this period resulting in dry weather and clear to partly cloudy skies.  It’s going to be cold though with highs on Friday only in the 30s with lows Friday Night in the teens and 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest on Friday at 10 to 20 mph with light winds or southwest winds Friday Night at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (November 1-3)

Saturday will be dry and chilly as high pressure exits off to the east.  A wind shift to the south will have occurred by Saturday but high temperatures will remain on the cool side as we open the month of November.  Expect daytime highs on Saturday to be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with lows Saturday Night in the 20s to low 30s.

A strong area of low pressure is forecast to pass west-northwest of the area from Sunday into Monday.  This system could bring a few showers to the Northland late this weekend/early next week but at the moment this doesn’t look too significant.  Highs on Sunday and Monday are expected to be in the 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(November 4-9)

Near normal temperatures are expected during this period.  A few rain or snow showers are possible on the 4th-5th with some more rain or snow possible around the 7th-8th the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Windy and colder.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered rain, sleet, and snow showers early changing to flurries and snow showers during the night.  Low 23 to 28.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

.Halloween…  Chilly!  Partly cloudy.  High 34 to 38.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind becoming south to southwest around 10 mph.

.Saturday…  Mostly sunny.  High 35 to 40.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 41 to 46.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 34 to 38.

.Monday…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Tomorrow

High:  45
Low:   30

Sunrise Friday:  7:49 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   5:54 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 4:06 PM CDT Wednesday, October 29, 2014/

Low pressure moving into the eastern Great Lakes with cold air and north winds developing on the backside of this system late this week – this setup should be a good one for some lake effect snow  Thursday Night and Friday along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

The area outlined in blue on the map has the best chance to pick up a couple inches of snow from Thursday Night into Halloween.

Weather Summary for October 29, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A ridge of high pressure averaging 1020mb stretched from eastern Oklahoma to the Upper Midwest with low pressure of 1012mb in southeast Saskatchewan.  A cool but mainly dry fall day under mostly cloudy skies.  Highs were in the mid 30s to low 40s and winds were from the southwest or northwest at 5 to around 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 29)

Low pressure will drop southeast out of Saskatchewan Tonight.  Mostly cloudy skies will cover the Northland with a chance for some light rain which could mix with snow in extreme northern Minnesota.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s with south, west, or north winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (October 30)

An area of low pressure will continue to track toward the southeast and should move over the central/eastern Great Lakes region by Tomorrow Night.  Spotty rain and or snow showers will be possible on Thursday in our area with flurries and snow showers for Thursday Night.

Highs on Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s to low 30s.  Northwest or north winds are forecast this period at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (October 31-November 2)

A cold but dry Halloween for most of the Northland as high pressure builds over the Upper Midwest.  Highs on Friday will only be in the 30s with lows Friday Night in the teens and 20s.  Southerly winds develop over the weekend with dry weather continuing on Saturday and probably on Sunday too – although there is at least a small risk for a few showers late this weekend as low pressure tracks into the western High Plains/central Plains region.  High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 30s to low 40s with lows Saturday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Highs on Sunday will be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(November 3-8)

A couple weather systems could affect the Northland during this period.  A few showers are possible on Monday (3rd)  Additional chances for showers either in the form of rain or snow from the 4th-6th.  Temperatures are expected to be fairly close to seasonal average from 3NOVEMBER-8NOVEMBER.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  A little bit of light rain possible late.  Low 34 to 39.  Wind west at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Considerable cloudiness.  A few rain showers possible.  High 40 to 45.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  A few snow showers or flurries.  Low 23 to 28.  Wind north to northwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Halloween…  Chilly! Mostly sunny.  High 34 to 38.

.Friday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday…  Mostly sunny.  High 35 to 40.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 25 to 30.

.Sunday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  45
Low:   30

Sunrise Thursday:  7:48 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   5:56 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 4:13 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 28, 2014/

Radar loop ending at 4:45 PM CDT Today.  Source, Intellicast.com

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain

Note:  As of October 27, the average monthly temperature for October at the Duluth Airport was 46.1 degrees which is 2.1 degrees warmer than normal.  The recent surges of unseasonably warm temperatures last week is the main reason why we are now above average temperature wise for the month.  Chillier weather from here on out as we wrap up October, but will it be enough to drop us below average for the month?  Stay tuned.

Rainfall map for October 27-28 ending This Morning.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.  Text reports below.

Rainfall report for October 27-28, 2014 ending at 7 AM Today
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

International Falls, MN:  0.39″
Hibbing, MN:  0.22″
12 N of Isle, MN:  0.17″
3 E of Wright, MN:  0.16″
Cook, MN:  0.28″
Floodwood, MN:  0.20″
Kabetogama, MN:  0.30″
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.36″
2 S of Tower, MN:  0.27″

Weather Summary for October 28, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Strong low pressure of 996mb was over northeast Ontario late This Afternoon.  Plenty of cold air is pouring into the Northland behind this low Today and along with the colder temps is a combination of overcast skies and gusty west winds.  Highs Today were in the 30s and 40s with those aforementioned west winds in the 10-25 mph range with gusts over 30 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 28)

A strong upper trough and upper level low will move slowly east and out of the Upper Midwest Tonight as high pressure starts to build in from the west.  Mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tonight with some light snow, rain, and drizzle at times.  Note:  Locations that do see snow Tonight shouldn’t get more than a dusting or half inch of accumulation.  Low temperatures will mainly be in the 30s with northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (October 29)

High pressure controls our weather on Wednesday giving us partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  There might be a few snow and or rain showers early in the day otherwise it should be dry.  A new low pressure system quickly approaches from the west by Wednesday Night which will result in mostly cloudy skies in our area with the possibility for a little bit of rain or a rain/snow mix.  Highs Tomorrow will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tomorrow Night in the 30s.  Winds will start out from the northwest on Wednesday but will back west or southwest later in the day.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the south or north.  Wind speeds will generally be in the 10-20 mph range during this period.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (October 30-November 1)

A blast of cold air is still on schedule for late week.  This cold snap moves in on Thursday, peaks on Friday with a slight temperature recovery expected for Saturday.

As the cold air moves in there should be a few showers of rain or snow on Thursday which will change over to flurries and snow showers Thursday Night/early Friday.  Halloween does look dry though for most of the Northland.

Note:  Lake effect snow is possible Thursday Night and Halloween along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin as north/northwest winds and cold air move over the warmer waters of Lake Superior.  There could be some snow accumulation mainly in parts of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties later this week.

High temperatures on Thursday will mainly be in the 40s with lows Thursday Night in the 20s to low 30s.  Highs on Friday should remain in the 30s with lows Friday Night in the teens and 20s.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s to low 40s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(November 2-7)

A strong area of low pressure should pass west/north of our area between Sunday-Tuesday (2nd-4th) This system could bring some showers to the Northland from the 2nd-4th.  Temperatures are forecast to be fairly close to average through this period.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain and drizzle at times This Evening which will become mixed with snow mainly inland from Lake Superior.  Patchy drizzle or snow flurries lingering Overnight.  Low 33 to 38.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Wednesday…  Flurries possible early otherwise mostly cloudy.  High 39 to 44.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west to southwest during the Afternoon.

.Wednesday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.  Low 35 to 39.  Wind southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Considerable cloudiness.  A few showers possible.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers and flurries.  Low 23 to 28.

.Halloween…  Chilly! Partly sunny.  Flurries possible early.  High 34 to 39.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday…  Mostly sunny.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  46
Low:   31

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:46 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   5:57 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 4:19 PM CDT, Monday, October 27, 2014/

18z HopWRF model rainfall forecast valid through 7 AM Tuesday.  Heaviest totals which could reach 0.50-0.75″ should fall from the Brainerd Lakes, Grand Rapids area north to International Falls.  Lesser amounts of rain for the Twin Ports and in all of northwest Wisconsin Tonight.

The blue outline area on the map is where snow will mix in with the rain Tuesday Afternoon or Evening, probably won’t see any accumulating snow in our area though as that should be confined to Ontario.

Weather Summary for October 27, 2014
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure centers of 1004mb and 1000mb were over western Ontario and southwest Wisconsin respectively.  There’s been some rain that has developed in western portions of the area This Afternoon otherwise it was dry.  Sky conditions varied from mostly sunny to mostly cloudy Today with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s with the warmest temperatures in northwest Wisconsin, it was cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior where temperatures remained in the upper 40s.  Winds were from the west or east Today at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (October 27)

A broad area of low pressure will extend from the Ontario/Minnesota border to northeast Wisconsin by daybreak.  Rain will affect north central and eventually east central areas in Minnesota Tonight while scattered rains affect northwestern Wisconsin.  Mostly cloudy skies are in the forecast with lows in the upper 30s and 40s.  Winds will become westerly at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (October 28)

Low pressure deepens as it tracks into eastern Ontario during this period.  Rain will affect northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night while locations farther south have some rain showers from time to time.

Note:  Colder air will be moving into the Northland on Tuesday and this could result in the rain mixing with and possibly changing over to snow from late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night generally over the Arrowhead and far northern areas in Minnesota.  There shouldn’t be much in the way of accumulating snow anywhere in our area though – perhaps a light dusting in far northern Minnesota.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s but will fall into the 30s in northern Minnesota.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s.  Winds will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (October 29-31)

Slight chances for light showers on Wednesday, a slightly better chance for a few rain and or snow showers on Thursday.  Halloween still looks cold but mainly dry at this time.

Highs on Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be in the 30s and 40s with lows Wednesday Night in the 30s.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.  Highs on Friday (Halloween) should mainly be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(November 1-6)

Near normal temperatures are expected through this period.  A storm system could affect the Upper Midwest from the 2nd-4th with some rain possible during that time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain gradually developing during the Evening with light rain at times Overnight.  Low 40 to 43.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph shifting to the west late.

.Tuesday…  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible at times.  High 43 to 46.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible mainly early.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partial sunshine.  High 40 to 45.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.

.Thursday…  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.  High 40 to 45.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 25 to 30.

.Halloween…  Partly sunny.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Today

High:  46
Low:   31

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:45 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   5:59 PM CDT

Tim