/Issued 3:44 PM CST, Wednesday, December 31, 2014
A coating of snow is possible late Tonight into Thursday Morning across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin with snow totals generally around 1″ or less but there could be a narrow stripe of up to 2″ of snow by Thursday Morning especially for areas west and south of Duluth and Superior. The image below is from the SREF model 15z run showing projected snow totals through Thursday Morning. Source, COD website.
Note: On Tuesday I looked at the month by month temperature average and their departure from normal for 2014. Today it’s all about the precipitation and snowfall totals for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location.
January: 0.73″; -0.23″ below normal
February: 2.12″; +1.31″ above normal
March: 1.91″; +0.43″ above normal
April: 3.30″; +0.87″ above normal
May: 4.37″; +1.14″ above normal
June: 4.47″; +0.24″ above normal
July: 3.42″; -0.43″ below normal
August: 4.63″; +0.93″ above normal
September: 1.64″; -2.47″ below normal
October: 1.80″; -1.05″ below normal
November: 0.98″; -1.11″ below normal
December: 1.26″; +0.05″ above normal
January: 9.4″; -10.0″ below normal
February: 29.5″; +17.1″ above normal
March: 20.9″; +7.7″ above normal
April: 26.3″; +19.4″ above normal
May: Trace; -0.4″ below normal
September: 0.0″; -0.1″ below normal
October: 0.1″; -2.2″ below normal
November: 16.4″; +2.7″ above normal
December: 8.6″; -9.1″ below normal
2014 precipitation total: 30.63″
Departure: -0.33″ below normal
2013 precipitation total: 30.48″
Departure: -0.48″ below normal
2014 thunderstorm total: 27 days
2013 thunderstorm total: 23 days
Weather Summary for December 31, 2014
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
The big weather story on this final day of 2014 were the strong winds. Low pressure averaging 996mb over northern Ontario and high pressure of 1036mb over the central Plains led to the gusty west winds that we saw in the Northland Today. Wind speeds were in the 10-20 mph range but gusts topped 30 mph in many locations. High temperatures were in the teens but with the strong winds that we had Today it felt quite a bit colder. Sky conditions varied between partly sunny and mostly sunny and there have been a few snow flurries in a few spots.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Tonight (December 31)
Will see a cold front approach far northern Minnesota Overnight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area with light snow and flurries possible late in portions of north central Minnesota. Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens with west or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Thursday and Thursday Night (January 1)
A cold front will drop south and out of the Northland by mid Afternoon Thursday. Expect some snow across parts of the Northland especially before Noon Tomorrow. High pressure building in behind the cold front results in mainly dry weather from Thursday Afternoon-Thursday Night.
Back to the snow potential Tomorrow Morning: Not expecting a lot of snow, but with SLR’s in the 15:1 to 25:1 range thanks to the chilly airmass in place, we could see a stripe of about 1-2″ of fluffy snow in parts of north central and east central Minnesota through northern Wisconsin.
High temperatures on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday Night in the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero. Winds will shift to the northwest during this period at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium.
Friday through Sunday (January 2-4)
An area of high pressure will pass through the Upper Midwest on Friday resulting in mainly dry/quiet weather conditions.
Low pressure dropping east-southeast out of western Canada will likely impact our weather from Friday Night through Saturday Night.
Should see some snow across the entire Northland with the potential for a significant amount of snow generally for areas north of Highway 2 — including over the Iron Range, Borderland, and Arrowhead of Minnesota.
Snow should be decreasing from west to east by late Saturday Night with generally dry conditions returning by Sunday as a new round of arctic air pours into the Northland.
High temperatures on Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the teens and 20s with lows Friday Night in the single digits and teens; lows Saturday Night will range from the teens and 20s below zero in northern Minnesota to the single digits in northwest Wisconsin. Highs on Sunday will only be in the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero.
The area outlined in blue on this map has the best chance at seeing more than 4″ of snow from Friday Night into Saturday. I’m thinking will see around 1-3″ of snow in the Twin Ports. Of course this is subject to change in coming days so stay tuned.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Below average temperatures from the 5th-7th; temperatures returning to more seasonable levels from the 8th-10th. Looks mainly dry until around the 9th-10th when a minor snow event could occur.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear This Evening. Becoming mostly cloudy late. Light snow or flurries possible Overnight. Low 3 to 8. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.New Year’s Day… Light snow and flurries possible during the Morning. Total snowfall accumulations of around 1″ possible. Mostly cloudy with some Afternoon sunshine. High 15 to 20. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Thursday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 2 below to 7 below.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 11 to 16.
.Friday Night… Mostly cloudy. Light snow or flurries possible. Low 5 to 10.
.Saturday… Light snow or flurries possible. High 20 to 25.
.Saturday Night… Light snow or flurries possible. Low 10 below to 15 below. Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3″ possible from Friday Night through Saturday Night.
.Sunday… Bitterly cold. Partly cloudy. High 0 to 5 below.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
Sunrise Thursday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:31 PM CST