January 31, 2015 Weather Report – Goodbye January! Winter storm south of here; Arctic air in far northern Minnesota.

/Issued 5:01 PM CST, Saturday, January 31, 2015/

12″ or greater snowfall probability forecast through Sunday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Red=High risk for at least a foot of snow
Green=Moderate risk for at least a foot of snow
Blue=Slight risk for at least a foot of snow

Wind Chill Advisory for the area shaded in light blue on the map.  Source, NWS.

More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=wind%20chill%20advisory

Weather Summary for January 31, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Quite the range in temperatures around the Northland Today as arctic air pushes into far northern Minnesota while near to above normal temperatures were common elsewhere.  Highs Today ranged from the single digits along the Ontario-Minnesota border to the teens and 20s elsewhere.  Sky conditions ranged from mostly sunny to partly cloudy and winds were out of the north at 5 to around 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 31)

Low pressure in western Kansas late This Afternoon will move east Tonight while arctic high pressure continues to build SE out of Saskatchewan.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will be found over our area Tonight with lows in the teens and 20s below zero in northern Minnesota to the single digits above zero in northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the north or northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (February 1)

Arctic high pressure builds SE out of the northern Plains during this period while low pressure moves from eastern Kansas to the Ohio Valley.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night with highs on Sunday in the single digits below to teens above zero.  Lows Sunday Night will be in the single digits below to around 20 below zero.  North or northeast winds on Sunday will turn to the north or west Sunday Night.  Wind speeds will range from 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  NNE wind coming off Lake Superior could lead to some lake effect snow showers Tonight and Sunday mainly along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin.  Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties could see some lake effect snow at times with accumulations of around 1″ to as high as 3″ possible by Sunday Evening.  I don’t think will see any lake effect snow in the Twin Ports as winds will be out of the NNE instead of the more preferred ENE direction, but it wouldn’t surprise me if there were a few flakes that make it into Superior and possibly the Downtown area of Duluth later Tonight and Sunday Morning.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (February 2-4)

One arctic high exits to the SE on Monday while a new one builds into the Upper Midwest from the NW during Tuesday and Wednesday.  A weak system passes west/south of the Northland sometime between Monday PM-Tuesday but little if any snow is expected with this system here in our area.

Highs on Monday and Tuesday will mainly be in the teens with highs on Wednesday in the single digits and teens.  Lows Monday Night will range from the single digits below to teens above zero.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the single digits and teens below to single digits above zero.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(February 5-10)

A little bit of snow is possible at times between the 5th-8th as a baroclinic zone — temperature gradient sets up over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest with arctic air to our north and mild/Pacific air to our west/southwest.  We could see a couple waves of low pressure track southeast along that temperature gradient which could lead to a few shots for generally light snowfall over parts of the Northland.  Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 5th-10th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5 below.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 6 to 11.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Sunday:  7:33 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:12 PM CST

Tim

January 30, 2015 Weather Report

/Issued 3:08 PM CST, Friday, January 30, 2015/

A decent snow event is expected this weekend south of the Northland.  The map below shows the 4″ or greater snowfall probability forecast valid for Saturday PM through Sunday.  There’s a pretty good chance that snow totals will exceed 6″, possibly even more than 8″ in that red outlined area on the map.
















The darker blue area is a Winter Storm Watch which is in effect from Saturday PM-Sunday.  Source, NWS hazards map.
















Snow depth report as of 6 AM CST January 30, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  7″
International Falls, MN:  13″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  2″
Cotton, MN:  5″
Cass Lake, MN:  3″
Togo, MN:  8″
25 E of Ely, MN:  17″
Cook, MN:  12″
Embarrass, MN:  9″
Floodwood, MN:  2″
Grand Portage, MN:  8″
Kabetogama, MN:  13″
3 E of Orr, MN:  11″
1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  15″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  10″

January 29, 2015 Minnesota snow depth map.  Source, MNDNR.




















Exactly one year ago Today.  Minnesota snow depth map for January 30, 2014.  Source, MNDNR.  Incredible difference from this year to last year.






















*-2 degrees at the Duluth Airport This Morning, January 30…First time since January 13 with a subzero low temperature.  Over 2 weeks ago.

*January 2015 will end above average in the temperature department.  As of the 29th we were +2.7 degrees above average for the month.

Weather Summary for January 30, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

High pressure averaging 1032mb was centered along the Illinois-Missouri border late This Afternoon with weak low pressure of 1022mb over the northern Plains.  Most of the area had mostly cloudy skies Today and there’s been some light snow and snow flurries affecting parts of the Northland.  Highs were in the teens and 20s with the mildest readings centered over the Brainerd Lakes.  Winds Today were out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 30)

A weak low pressure system will swing through the Upper Midwest Tonight.  Mostly cloudy skies will persist Tonight with some flurries and light snow.  The Borderland and Arrowhead region might pick up an inch of snow Tonight with little or no accumulation elsewhere.  Lows will range from the single digits to around 20 with south, southwest, or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (January 31)

We end the month of January on a cool note.  Tonight’s system exits to the east as arctic high pressure drops southeast out of Saskatchewan.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs on Saturday ranging from the single digits to the 20s.  Lows Saturday Night will range from the teens below to teens above zero.  Winds during this period will be out of the north or northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

Sunday through Tuesday (February 1-3)

Arctic high pressure builds southeast out of the northern Plains while low pressure moves from the central Plains to Ohio Valley this weekend and then into the northeast U.S. early in the work week.  The system to our south should produce a sizable snow event but all of the snow stays south of the Northland.  There could be a clipper or two Monday and Tuesday but most of the snow with those systems also looks like it would be south of our area.

High temps on Sunday will range from the single digits below to teens above zero with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to around 20 below.  Highs on Monday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Monday Night in the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the teens.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(February 4-9)

Below average temperatures on the 4th-5th; near to possibly above average temperatures from the 6th-9th.  A minor snow event is possible sometime between the 7th-9th and should that system affect us, it could even bring some light mixed precipitation depending on temperatures.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  High 18 to 23.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly sunny.  High 5 to 10.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 10 to 15.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  20
Low:      2

Sunrise Saturday:  7:35 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   5:10 PM CST

Tim




January 29, 2015 – Weather Report

/Issued 4:15 PM CST, Thursday, January 29, 2015/

Northwest U.S.; Southwest U.S.; Southern/Eastern U.S.; Ohio Valley; Central Plains — all areas that look stormy at times during the next several days.  Meanwhile here in the north, same stuff different day when it comes to the weather.  Somewhere, Somewhere sunny and 75…I digress.  Anyways, the map below is the 7-day total precipitation forecast.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

*37 days!  The number of days until we spring forward.  Coming up fast.

*Sunset times continue to get later and later next month.  On February 1, the sunset in Duluth is at 5:10 PM; on the 28th the sunset is at 5:51 PM.

*The winter of 2014-15 can’t end soon enough.  What a lame winter for snow around here.

*January 13…The last time Duluth had a subzero low temperature (Over 2 weeks ago)

*11 subzero nights so far this January in Duluth compared to 23 nights all of January 2014.

*Only 14 subzero nights so far this winter in Duluth compared to 44 nights by this time last winter.  Incredible!

Weather Summary for January 29, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1006mb was over eastern Ontario while high pressure averaging 1032-1036mb builds east from the western High Plains and southwest Manitoba.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies were common Today with some passing flurries.  Temperatures have cooled off compared to previous days/weeks.  Late day temperatures were in the teens and 20s which is right around average for late January.  Winds Today were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts — by far the wind was the biggest weather headline Today.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 29)

High pressure moves into the Upper Midwest Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows ranging from around 10 below to the single digits above zero.  Winds This Evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.  Winds Overnight will be out of the northwest or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (January 30)

High pressure moves off to our east while a weak clipper system tracks through the region.  Snow showers and flurries will accompany this system with snow accumulations generally less than 1″.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue this period with highs on Friday in the teens and 20s, lows Friday Night will range from the single digits to around 20.  Southerly winds through Tomorrow Evening at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds by late Tomorrow Night will shift out of the west or northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (January 31-February 2)

This period looks mainly dry at this time except along the South Shore of Lake Superior where some lake effect snow is possible from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday thanks to cold air and north winds blowing across the lake.  Highs Saturday will range from the single digits to the 20s with lows Saturday Night in the teens below to single digits above zero.  Highs on Sunday will range from the single digits below to around 10 above with lows Sunday Night in the single digits below to around 20 below.  Highs on Monday will be in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(February 3-8)

Minor snow events are possible around the 3rd, and possibly again sometime around the 7th-8th, but the key word here is ‘minor’ — there are no big storms showing up in the models around here through next weekend, and probably beyond that time.  Below average temperatures from the 3rd-5th; near to below average temperatures from the 6th-8th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Breezy and colder.  Partly cloudy.  Low 3 below to 2 above.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible during the Afternoon.  High 15 to 20.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 10 to 15.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 2 below to 7 below.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 8 to 13.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Friday:  7:36 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   5:09 PM CST

Tim

January 28, 2015 Weather Update – Freezing Rain Advisory until 6 AM Thursday

/Issued 7:44 PM CST, Wednesday, January 28, 2015/

The National Weather Service in Duluth has expanded the Freezing Rain Advisory to include all of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through 6 AM CST Thursday.  Freezing drizzle is expected Tonight leading to icy roads and hazardous driving and walking conditions.  Ice accumulations will remain less than one tenth of an inch.  Note:  Pink area on the map above is a freezing rain advisory per NWS hazards map.

More information can be found at this link:  
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=freezing%20rain%20advisory

Minnesota road conditions:  http://hb.511mn.org/#roadReports/layers=allReports,roadReports,winterDriving,weatherWarnings,otherStates

Wisconsin road conditions:
http://www.511wi.gov/web/traffic/map.aspx?type=winterRoads#1

Tim

January 28, 2015 Weather Report – Freezing rain advisory for parts of NW Wisconsin

/Issued 4:16 PM CST, Wednesday, January 28, 2015/

Freezing Rain Advisory for Tonight in the area shaded in pink in northwest Wisconsin.  Source, NWS hazards map.  More information can be found at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=freezing%20rain%20advisory

Winter 2014-15 snowfall totals/departure from normal thru January 27
Source:  National Weather Service

Note:  Winter is the period from December 1-February 28

Duluth, Minnesota

Total:  15.2″
Departure:  -19.9″

International Falls, Minnesota

Total:  30.3″
Departure:  +1.9″

Twin Cities, Minnesota

Total:  11.0″
Departure:  -11.7″

St. Cloud, Minnesota

Total:  5.0″
Departure:  -12.1″

Grand Forks, North Dakota

Total:  7.8″
Departure:  -12.3″

Eau Claire, Wisconsin

Total:  12.7″
Departure:  -8.4″

Green Bay, Wisconsin

Total:  12.3″
Departure:  -12.1″

Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Total:  12.6″
Departure:  -10.9″

Madison, Wisconsin

Total:  8.9″
Departure:  -15.8″

Chicago, Illinois

Total:  12.5″
Departure:  -5.3″

Des Moines, Iowa

Total:  8.4″
Departure:  -7.9″

Note:  Every city on this list except for International Falls has had below average snowfall so far this winter.  Duluth’s average winter snowfall is 49.5″; we need 34.3″ of additional snow by the end of February to get to the average.  Highly unlikely this happens.

Outside of the Rockies and around the Great Lakes there really isn’t much snow cover as we get closer to the end of January.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.














Weather Summary for January 28, 2015
Location:  northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Low pressure of 1004mb was over far northwest Missouri late This Afternoon with a weaker surface low averaging 1010mb over far northwest Minnesota.  A cold front was moving into western Minnesota as of 4 PM.  Sky conditions ranged from partly to mostly cloudy in northwest Wisconsin while generally overcast conditions prevailed in northeast Minnesota.  Patchy freezing drizzle and drizzle along with some haze was also common Today over parts of the area.  High temperatures were in the mid 20s to low 30s with south or southeast winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (January 28)

A cold front passes through the Northland Tonight while low pressure exits to our east later in the night.  Expect some freezing drizzle and snow showers around the area Tonight under mostly cloudy skies.  Precipitation will remain on the light side Tonight, but it only takes a small amount of ice accumulation to cause difficult driving conditions, so if you have travel plans Tonight use caution as patchy freezing drizzle could make roads slick and hazardous in spots.  Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s as winds shift to the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (January 29)

High pressure builds into the Upper Midwest this period.  Partly cloudy skies are expected with highs Tomorrow in the teens and 20s, lows Tomorrow Night will range from the single digits below to around 10 above zero.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 25 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (January 30-February 1)

A very minor snow event is possible from Friday PM into early Saturday otherwise this period looks dry.  Arctic air should move in on Sunday, before then generally near to slightly above average temperatures.  Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the teens and 20s with highs on Sunday in the single digits.  Lows Friday Night will be in the single digits and teens with lows Saturday Night ranging from the teens below to single digits above zero.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(February 2-7)

Below average temperatures are forecast from the 2nd-7th.  Little to no snow.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy freezing drizzle.  Flurries and light snow showers also possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph becoming northwest at 15 to 25 mph after Midnight.

.Thursday…  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30 early with slowly falling temperatures.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible late.  High 15 to 20.

.Friday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 5 to 10.

.Saturday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible early.  High 15 to 20.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 below to 10 below.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 5 to 10.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Thursday:  7:37 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   5:07 PM CST

Tim