Monthly Archives: March 2015

March 31, 2015 Weather Report – Lake breeze returns on Wednesday, warms up again near the lake on Thursday; Some parts of MN in the 70s, maybe even the 80s on Wednesday; Severe risk south on Wednesday with spotty storms in the Northland

/Issued 4:20 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 31, 2015/

A few spotty thunderstorms are possible Wednesday PM as far north as Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with better coverage of thunderstorms farther south where a 5-15% probability for severe thunderstorms exists on Wednesday per Storm Prediction Center.  It’s not unusual to get thunderstorms around here in early April so don’t panic if you hear thunder or see lightning, but do remember to seek shelter if caught outdoors and a thunderstorm approaches.  When thunder roars, go indoors!































15z SREF calibrated thunderstorm probability forecast for Wednesday Afternoon.  The legend is on the left side of the map.
















Forecast surface map for 7 PM Wednesday per Weather Prediction Center.

Low=Low pressure
Red line=Warm front
Blue line=Cold front
















Check out these forecasted high temperatures for Wednesday per 18z NAM 32km model.  April 1 and widespread 70+ degree temps in much of Minnesota with much cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  80s, maybe even some 90s in the Central Plains Tomorrow!  Source, TropicalTidbits.com















*March will finish above average in temperatures for the month and below average in both precipitation and snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota.  Monthly summary will be issued either Wednesday or Thursday.

*April climate normals for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location.

Temperature:  39.6 degrees
Precipitation:  2.43″
Snowfall:  6.9″

Note:  The average date for the first 70 degree or warmer high temperature at the Duluth Airport is April 28.  Last year, we didn’t hit 70 degrees until May 18; And in 2013 May 6.  I have a feeling will reach 70 degrees before April 28, but will just have to wait and see.

Astronomical data for April – Duluth, Minnesota:

Sunrise on April 1:  6:48 AM 
Sunrise on April 30:  5:56 AM

Sunset on April 1:  7:38 PM
Sunset on April 30:  8:15 PM

Weather Summary for March 31, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A nice day as we close out the month of March.  Skies across most of the Northland were sunny to partly cloudy Today with more clouds in the Arrowhead.  High temperatures were in the 50s with lower 60s in the Brainerd Lakes.  Winds were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight (March 31)

High pressure will be centered to our north/east Tonight while low pressure heads into the Northern Plains.  Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will shift to the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (April 1)

A strong area of low pressure tracks east out of the Northern Plains during this period while a warm front and cold front attached to this low push through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes.

Note:  Late Afternoon mesoanalysis shows mid 40 dew points in extreme Southeast Kansas with mid 50 dew points in Central Oklahoma so needless to say the deeper moisture is pretty far to the south.  What will help transport this deeper moisture north will be a low level jet which should increase to between 40-6o knots on Wednesday so we should see dew points climb into the 40s in portions of the Northland while 50s push into at least the Southern half of Minnesota.

Instability will increase a bit Wednesday PM with Lifted Indices projected to be around 0 to -2 degrees C with elevated CAPE of 200-500 j/kg.  

As the low approaches along with its warm front and cold front, we should see the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening.  I don’t think will have any severe weather here in the Northland as we just won’t have enough juice in the air, after all it’s only the beginning of April, but I think we will see a few storms pop up, just nothing severe this far north.

High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the 30s and 40s near Lake Superior to the 60s elsewhere, a few Southern locales might even hit 70!  Lows Wednesday Night will mainly be in the 40s.

Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.  Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the south, northeast, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (April 2-4)

Deep low pressure tracks across Ontario on Thursday while a secondary cold front pushes SE through the Northland.  This boundary might trigger a few showers on Thursday mainly in Northern Minnesota with dry weather expected for the rest of us.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 50s with 60s possible in Southern areas.  Lows Thursday Night will range from the teens to around 30 degrees.

Dry weather on Friday with highs in the 30s and 40s.  A weak clipper system approaches from the NW for Friday Night-early Saturday, this feature could bring a few snow showers and flurries to the Northland at that time.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s with highs Saturday in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Low.

(April 5-10)

Still keeping an eye on a potential storm system that could affect the Northland at some point between April 6-9 — If this storm hits us it could bring rain or wet snow to the area.  Computer models continue to disagree, however, on the track/timing of this system so stay tuned.  Near to below average temperatures are forecast from the 5th-10th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming east.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or isolated thunderstorms possible during the Afternoon.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  A few showers or isolated thunderstorms possible during the Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west to northwest late.

.Thursday…  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 22 to 27.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

.Friday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Saturday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  41
Low:   24

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:48 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:38 PM CDT

Tim








March 30, 2015 Weather Report – Rain This Evening; Near 50 on Tuesday; Watching Wednesday’s t-storm potential. Pics from Today included in this post

/Issued 3:57 PM CDT, Monday, March 30, 2015/

Here’s the severe thunderstorm probability forecast for Wednesday per Storm Prediction Center.  Greatest chances 15% (Yellow area on the map) covers extreme Southwest Minnesota with a lesser 5% chance farther north into Central-Eastern Minnesota and far Western Wisconsin.














Some parts of the Northland could see their first thunderstorms of the season on Wednesday.  Shown below is the surface map for Wednesday PM per Weather Prediction Center.  

L=Low pressure
Red line=Warm front
Blue line=Cold front















Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 4:30 PM CDT.  Source, WSI.

Green=Rain.

Should see this area of rain continue to move southeast This Evening — The rain should end in Duluth and Superior between 7-9 PM Tonight.















I got off work just in time to see the Edwin H Gott cruise into the Duluth Harbor Today, March 30, 2015.  Also a few more pics I took Today down on Park Point.  Enjoy!













































































Weather Summary for March 30, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A mixed bag of weather in the Northland Today.  Most of us started the day with some sun, but clouds quickly increased from NW-SE with an area of rain affecting Western-Southern portions of the Northland during the Afternoon as low pressure moves into Western Minnesota.  Highs Today were generally in the 40s to lower 50s but much warmer temperatures of 70-75 degrees were found in Southwest Minnesota Today.  Winds weren’t much of a factor Today with speeds generally around 10 mph or less.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 30)

A band of rain will continue to affect parts of East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin This Evening as a fairly strong area of Frontogenesis pushes SE.  Later Tonight, the risk for rain or snow showers will shift primarily to far Northern and far Northeast Minnesota with dry weather elsewhere.  Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s with variable winds at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (March 31)

March 2015 will end on a quiet note as Tonight’s disturbance exits to the southeast while high pressure moves through Ontario.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with some rain or snow showers possible mainly early in far Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Tuesday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will shift to the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

Wednesday through Friday (April 1-3)

A strong area of low pressure is forecast to track east through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and adjacent portions of Southern Canada during midweek.  A warm front and cold front attached to this low will move east and through the Northland on Wednesday.

Computer models remain consistent in showing a healthy low level jet of 40-50+ knots developing out ahead of this system on Wednesday with moisture and warm air advection occurring throughout the Northland. 

 Dew points should climb into the 40s while elevated CAPE builds to around 200-500 j/kg during the Afternoon-early Evening hours.  This combined with the approaching low and frontal boundaries should allow for the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in our area on Wednesday.  The threat for severe weather this far north is on the low side due to limited instability and moisture,  but there should be enough to produce at least a few thunderstorms around the area.

Mainly dry weather returns for Thursday and Friday.

High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Thursday Night in the teens and 20s.  Highs on Friday will be in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Low to Medium.

(April 4-9)

A weak system could trigger a few snow showers in parts of the Northland early Saturday (4th)  After that the attention turns to the Sunday Night-Tuesday time frame (5th-7th)  This is when we could see a storm system affect the Northland with possible rain, snow, or a wintry mix of precipitation.  Note:  There continues to be considerable uncertainty with the track/timing of this system so stay tuned.  Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 4th-9th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Rain mainly before 9 PM.  Mostly cloudy with some clearing possible late.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 48 to 53.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or isolated thunderstorms possible mainly during the Afternoon.  High 48 to 53 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night…  A few showers or isolated thunderstorms possible mainly during the Evening.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 55 to 60.

.Thursday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 22 to 27.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 38 to 43.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  40
Low:   23

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:50 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   7:36 PM CDT

Tim


March 29, 2015 Weather Report – Bipolar! Quick changes through midweek; Next round of precip arrives Monday PM; Thunder potential Wednesday. Snowfall/rainfall report included in this post

/Issued 6:36 PM CDT, Sunday, March 29, 2015/

Getting to be that time of the year.  Dusting off the convective model maps for the first time this season.  The image below is the calibrated thunderstorm probability forecast for Wednesday, April 1, 2015 per 15z SREF model.  Low probs for a spotty t-storm or two in parts of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.
















There’s another round of precipitation lined up for Monday Afternoon-early Tuesday with amounts of a tenth to possibly a quarter inch possible per 18z RGEM.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com
















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location

March 22-28, 2015

High temperatures:

3/22:  33F/4 degrees below normal
3/23:  39F/2 degrees above normal
3/24:  47F/9 degrees above normal
3/25:  37F/1 degree below normal
3/26:  30F/9 degrees below normal
3/27:  30F/9 degrees below normal
3/28:  44F/4 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

3/22:  20F/Normal
3/23:  23F/3 degrees above normal
3/24:  24F/3 degrees above normal
3/25:  29F/8 degrees above normal
3/26:  17F/5 degrees below normal
3/27:  10F/12 degrees below normal
3/28:  13F/9 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.11″
Normal:  0.37″
Departure:  -0.26″ below normal

Last week’s temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.  Cooler than normal!


















Last week’s precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.






















Snowfall report for March 29, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Lutsen, MN (Cook County)  2.0″
3 N of Butternut, WI (Ashland County)  2.0″
1 W of Park Falls, WI (Price County)  2.0″
Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  1.5″
Glidden, WI (Ashland County)  1.0″
5 NW of Duluth, MN (St. Louis County)  0.8″ — NWS total.
4 S of Sawyer, MN (Carlton County)  0.8″

Precipitation report for March 29, 2015
Source:  MesoWest website

Aitkin, MN:  0.19″
McGregor, MN:  0.14″
International Falls, MN:  0.33″
Littlefork, MN:  0.33″
Effie, MN:  0.27″
Orr, MN:  0.28″
Brainerd, MN:  0.20″
Duluth, MN:  0.10″
Cloquet, MN:  0.10″
Saginaw, MN:  0.14″
Superior, WI:  0.11″
Ely, MN:  0.16″
Grand Marais, MN:  0.27″
Barnes, WI:  0.27″
Ashland, WI:  0.16″
Hayward, WI:  0.25″

Weather Summary for March 29, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An exciting day for weather nerds (like me) Quick changes took place in the Northland Today as a strong but fast moving storm system moved through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes.  Surface low pressure of 994mb was over Northern Ontario early This Evening with 12-hour 500mb height falls of 60-120 meters covering most of the area per meso-analysis.

The day started with rain, sleet, freezing rain, and wet snow.  Some of the snow was heavy at times putting down a quick coating up to a couple inches of slushy/sloppy snow.  By This Afternoon, precipitation ended from NW-SE with sunshine returning in all but far Northeast Minnesota and in Eastern portions of Northwest Wisconsin.

High temperatures Today were mainly in the 40s with a few spots around the Brainerd Lakes pushing 50 degrees late This Afternoon.  Winds were out of the south or southwest earlier in the day and out of the west or northwest during the Afternoon.  Wind speeds were in the 15-25 mph range with gusts of 30-40+ mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight (March 29)

Quiet weather for the rest of Tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  High pressure pushes east into the Northland during the night.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with winds out of the northwest, west, or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts This Evening.

Monday and Monday Night (March 30)

High pressure centers will be located to our north and south/southeast while a cold front drops south out of Ontario with low pressure moving southeast out of Manitoba.  Partly-mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period.  Another round of rain will move in from the northwest either late Monday Morning or during Monday Afternoon with some rain persisting into Monday Night.  Note:  Temperatures could become cold enough to support a rain/snow or an all snow scenario by late Monday Night mainly over far Northeast Minnesota with a few inches of accumulation possible late Monday Night.

High temperatures Tomorrow will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s in far Northeast Minnesota.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 30s with 20s in far Northeast Minnesota.  Winds Tomorrow will be shift to the south or southwest at 10 to 15 mph, winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the northeast or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (March 31-April 2)

A frontal boundary will linger over the Northland on Tuesday while low pressure exits to the southeast.  Lingering light snow or rain is possible early in the day in parts of the area but most of Tuesday is shaping up to be a dry day the way it looks now.  High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees with 20s in far Northeast Minnesota.

A strong area of low pressure passes north of the area during the middle of the week.  Should see a robust low level jet upwards of 50-60 knots develop ahead of this system on Wednesday which will pump moisture and some instability north into our area.  Latest model guidance continues to show about 200-500 j/kg of elevated CAPE moving into the area on Wednesday — This might be just enough to trigger a couple of thunderstorms in parts of the area with scattered showers possible as well.  High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.  Lows Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Low pressure will move across Ontario on Thursday with mainly dry weather expected in our area with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(April 3-8)

Near to below average temperatures are expected from the 3rd-8th.  I’m still monitoring the April 5-8 time frame for a possible storm system that may or may not affect the Northland.  Anything from rain, snow, to thunderstorms are possible should this storm hit the area.  Stay tuned.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 31 to 36.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts This Evening.  Wind shifting to the west late.

.Monday…  Some sun possible during the Morning otherwise mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible during the Afternoon.  High 45 to 50.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy with light rain possible at times.  Low 33 to 37.  Wind north to northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 41 to 46.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or isolated thunderstorms possible.  High 48 to 53 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 48 to 53.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  40
Low:   23

Sunrise Monday:  6:52 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:35 PM CDT

Tim


March 28, 2015 Weather Report – Gusty winds through Sunday; Rain (Wintry mix for some) arrives late Tonight.

/Issued 4:55 PM CST, Saturday, March 28, 2015/

A nice looking system over the Northern Rockies Today with a few thunderstorms late This Afternoon in Eastern Montana while a lot of warm air pushes north out ahead of this low with Afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s as far east as the Western Dakotas.  This system moves east and will affect the Northland from late Tonight through mid Afternoon Sunday, but there shouldn’t be any thunderstorms as it crosses through our area.  Source, water vapor satellite image; College of Dupage website.

The entire Northland is forecast to pick up around 0.10″ to possibly as much as 0.25″ of precipitation from late Tonight through about midday Sunday per 18z RGEM.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Weather Summary for March 28, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Temperatures warmed up Today with highs generally in the low to mid 40s which is slightly warmer than average for late March.  Skies were sunny although there have been some clouds passing through at times in parts of the area.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts during the Afternoon hours.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 28)

Increasing clouds during the Evening — Precipitation overspreads the Northland from west to east after Midnight.  The majority of the precipitation should be in the form of rain, although there could be enough cooling that takes place to cause a sleet, freezing rain, wet snow, rain mixture or perhaps even a brief period of all frozen precipitation, this is most likely in far Northeast Minnesota and also in portions of Northwest Wisconsin.  Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 30s with 20s in the Arrowhead.  Winds will remain out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph.

Sunday and Sunday Night (March 29)

A strong area of low pressure will move east out of the Northern Plains and through the Upper Midwest, Western/Central Great Lakes region during this period.  This system will bring rain to the area Sunday Morning with a wintry mix of precipitation possible in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  The precipitation should end from NW-SE by Sunday Afternoon with mainly dry weather expected for Sunday Night.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Sunday Night in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will shift to the west or northwest at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

Monday through Wednesday (March 30-April 1)

A clipper system could affect parts of the Northland from Monday Afternoon-early Tuesday with some light rain possible.  Will see a wide range in high temperatures on Monday with 40s and 50s in Western/Southern areas with 30s in far Northern Minnesota.  Lows Monday Night will be in the 20s and 30s.

Most of Tuesday should be dry the way it looks now with highs in the 40s and 50s except for 30s in the Arrowhead.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 30s with 20s in far Northeast Minnesota.

A low pressure moving into the region on Wednesday could produce showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The latest computer models continue to show enough instability with CAPE values up to 500 j/kg to support a risk of thunderstorms.  High temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(April 2-7)

Strong low pressure exits to the east on Thursday (2nd) with dry weather expected over the area.  Friday-Saturday (3rd-4th) also look dry at this time.

A storm system could affect the Northland between Sunday-Tuesday (5th-7th) with rain or snow possible.

Near to above average temperatures on the 2nd, near to below average temperatures from the 3rd-7th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Increasing cloudiness.  Rain or a wintry mix of precipitation possible after 3 AM.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind south to southwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Sunday…  Breezy.  Rain possible mainly through early Afternoon.  Mostly cloudy with some sunshine possible later in the day.  High 40 to 45.  Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph becoming west to northwest.  Higher wind gusts are possible.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible late.  High 41 to 46.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Light rain possible.  Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 32 to 37.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers or isolated thunderstorms possible.  High 48 to 53 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  40
Low:   23

Sunrise Sunday:  6:54 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:34 PM CDT

Tim

March 27, 2015 Weather Report – Warming up a bit this weekend; Watching late Saturday Night-Sunday AM rain/wintry mix threat; 1st t-storms of the season could arrive middle of next week!

/Issued 7:01 PM CDT, Friday, March 27, 2015/

Precipitation totals of up to one quarter inch are possible across the Northland late Saturday Night-Sunday Morning per 18z RGEM.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com  Note:  Some of this precipitation could fall as snow or sleet in parts of the area.

Potential for widespread half inch precipitation amounts in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through April 3, 2015.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.















Frigid in parts of the Northland This Morning, March 27, 2015.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Brimson, MN:  -4F
Embarrass, MN:  -4F
25 E of Ely, MN:  -2F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  0F
Ely, MN:  0F
Orr, MN:  0F
Crane Lake, MN:  0F

*The high temperature of 30 degrees at the Duluth Airport on March 26 was the first time since March 5 with a high temperature colder than 32 degrees.

*Low temperature of 10 degrees at the Duluth Airport on March 27 is the coldest low temperature since March 6 (6 degrees)

Weather Summary for March 27, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Another chilly but sunny day across the Northland with high temperatures generally in the upper 20s and 30s.  Winds were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.  Surface map early This Evening featured an area of high pressure averaging 1024mb covering the Great Lakes.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (March 27)

High pressure will remain in control of our weather Tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies in our area.  Low temperatures will range from around zero to 20 degrees with a few subzero low temperatures possible in the traditional cold spots.  Winds will be out of the south or east around 10 mph.

Saturday and Saturday Night (March 28)

High pressure will be centered to our southeast while low pressure moves in from the west.  Dry on Saturday under sunny to partly cloudy skies, highs will be in the 30s and 40s with south or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Clouds increase Saturday Evening with rain or a wintry mix of precipitation overspreading the Northland from west to east after Midnight.  Lows will be in the 30s with south or southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

Sunday through Tuesday (March 29-31)

A strong area of low pressure moves off to our east on Sunday.  Rain or a wintry mix of precipitation is forecast to linger into Sunday Morning before the precipitation ends from NW-SE during the Afternoon.

Dry Sunday Night and most of Monday, then a clipper system approaches from the northwest Monday Evening-early Tuesday with the possibility for some rain or wet snow in parts of the Northland.

High temperatures on Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows in the 20s and 30s.  Highs on Monday will range from the 40s and 50s with 30s in far Northeast Minnesota, lows Monday Night will be in the 30s.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Low to Medium.

(April 1-6)

Needless to say there has been and continues to be quite a bit of model uncertainty for the middle of next week.  The EUROPEAN model in particular has been showing major swings, with yesterday’s 12z run painting a snow/rain storm for the Northland, while Today’s 12z run shows warm, moist air and a potential for showers and thunderstorms — This actually agrees with what the GFS model is showing for the middle of next week.  So we could be looking at the first outbreak of thundery weather this season in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin next Wednesday (April 1) Again though I don’t have much confidence in any one solution, so things could change in coming days, but right now this system looks fairly potent with a nice surge of warm, moist air, along with a strong low level jet which would help destabilize the atmosphere with increasing amounts of instability leading to scattered convection over the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes on April 1.

There is potential for another system to possibly impact the Northland sometime during the April 4-6 time frame with possible rain or snow, but again very low confidence with this one.  Note:  The 18z GFS model from Today shows a whopper of a snowstorm hitting the Northland next Sunday/Monday, April 5-6 with powerful winds and very heavy amounts of snow and blowing snow.  Take this with a grain of salt, but if nothing else the computer models are heating up around here with a much more active weather pattern compared to what we have seen over the past few months.  I love spring!!!

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 12 to 17.  Wind east to southeast around 12 mph.

.Saturday…  Mostly sunny and turning breezy.  High 40 to 45.  Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Increasing cloudiness.  Breezy.  Rain, sleet, or snow possible mainly after 4 AM.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind southwest at 15 to 30 mph.

.Sunday…  Breezy.  Rain, sleet, or snow mainly during the Morning.  Some sunshine developing during the Afternoon.  Total snow and sleet accumulations less than 1″.  High 40 to 45.  Wind becoming west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Sunday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 28 to 33.

.Monday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.

.Monday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow or rain possible.  Low 30 to 35.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 45 to 50.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  40
Low:   22

Sunrise Saturday:  6:56 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:32 PM CDT

Tim