/Issued 4:20 PM CDT, Tuesday, March 31, 2015/
A few spotty thunderstorms are possible Wednesday PM as far north as Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin with better coverage of thunderstorms farther south where a 5-15% probability for severe thunderstorms exists on Wednesday per Storm Prediction Center. It’s not unusual to get thunderstorms around here in early April so don’t panic if you hear thunder or see lightning, but do remember to seek shelter if caught outdoors and a thunderstorm approaches. When thunder roars, go indoors!
15z SREF calibrated thunderstorm probability forecast for Wednesday Afternoon. The legend is on the left side of the map.
Forecast surface map for 7 PM Wednesday per Weather Prediction Center.
Red line=Warm front
Blue line=Cold front
Check out these forecasted high temperatures for Wednesday per 18z NAM 32km model. April 1 and widespread 70+ degree temps in much of Minnesota with much cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. 80s, maybe even some 90s in the Central Plains Tomorrow! Source, TropicalTidbits.com
*March will finish above average in temperatures for the month and below average in both precipitation and snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota. Monthly summary will be issued either Wednesday or Thursday.
*April climate normals for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location.
Temperature: 39.6 degrees
Note: The average date for the first 70 degree or warmer high temperature at the Duluth Airport is April 28. Last year, we didn’t hit 70 degrees until May 18; And in 2013 May 6. I have a feeling will reach 70 degrees before April 28, but will just have to wait and see.
Astronomical data for April – Duluth, Minnesota:
Sunrise on April 1: 6:48 AM
Sunrise on April 30: 5:56 AM
Sunset on April 1: 7:38 PM
Sunset on April 30: 8:15 PM
Weather Summary for March 31, 2015
Location: Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
A nice day as we close out the month of March. Skies across most of the Northland were sunny to partly cloudy Today with more clouds in the Arrowhead. High temperatures were in the 50s with lower 60s in the Brainerd Lakes. Winds were out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Tonight (March 31)
High pressure will be centered to our north/east Tonight while low pressure heads into the Northern Plains. Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur Tonight with lows in the 20s and 30s. Winds will shift to the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night (April 1)
A strong area of low pressure tracks east out of the Northern Plains during this period while a warm front and cold front attached to this low push through the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes.
Note: Late Afternoon mesoanalysis shows mid 40 dew points in extreme Southeast Kansas with mid 50 dew points in Central Oklahoma so needless to say the deeper moisture is pretty far to the south. What will help transport this deeper moisture north will be a low level jet which should increase to between 40-6o knots on Wednesday so we should see dew points climb into the 40s in portions of the Northland while 50s push into at least the Southern half of Minnesota.
Instability will increase a bit Wednesday PM with Lifted Indices projected to be around 0 to -2 degrees C with elevated CAPE of 200-500 j/kg.
As the low approaches along with its warm front and cold front, we should see the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday Evening. I don’t think will have any severe weather here in the Northland as we just won’t have enough juice in the air, after all it’s only the beginning of April, but I think we will see a few storms pop up, just nothing severe this far north.
High temperatures on Wednesday will range from the 30s and 40s near Lake Superior to the 60s elsewhere, a few Southern locales might even hit 70! Lows Wednesday Night will mainly be in the 40s.
Winds Tomorrow will be out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible. Winds Tomorrow Night will be out of the south, northeast, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Thursday through Saturday (April 2-4)
Deep low pressure tracks across Ontario on Thursday while a secondary cold front pushes SE through the Northland. This boundary might trigger a few showers on Thursday mainly in Northern Minnesota with dry weather expected for the rest of us. Highs on Thursday will be in the 50s with 60s possible in Southern areas. Lows Thursday Night will range from the teens to around 30 degrees.
Dry weather on Friday with highs in the 30s and 40s. A weak clipper system approaches from the NW for Friday Night-early Saturday, this feature could bring a few snow showers and flurries to the Northland at that time. Lows Friday Night will be in the 20s with highs Saturday in the 30s and 40s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Low.
Still keeping an eye on a potential storm system that could affect the Northland at some point between April 6-9 — If this storm hits us it could bring rain or wet snow to the area. Computer models continue to disagree, however, on the track/timing of this system so stay tuned. Near to below average temperatures are forecast from the 5th-10th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Partly cloudy. Low 30 to 35. Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming east.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers or isolated thunderstorms possible during the Afternoon. High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday Night… A few showers or isolated thunderstorms possible during the Evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west to northwest late.
.Thursday… Breezy. Partly cloudy. High 55 to 60. Wind west to southwest at 15 to 25 mph.
.Thursday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 22 to 27.
.Friday… Partly cloudy. High 38 to 43.
.Friday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 38 to 43.
Normal temperatures for Tuesday
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:48 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 7:38 PM CDT