Monthly Archives: April 2015

/Issued 4:17 PM CDT, Wednesday, April 29, 2015/

Weather map for Sunday, May 2, 2015.  A cold front (Blue line on the map) moving southeast out of North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota could bring some showers or thunderstorms to Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday.  The computer models are beginning to increase the amount of instability and moisture with this system which may lead to a greater risk for convection in our area, things could change though so stay tuned.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Not a lot of rain with Friday’s cold front with amounts probably around a tenth of an inch or less in most spots.  Source, NAM – 12km model (18z run)  TropicalTidbits.com

An upper level low/trough is centered to our east today, this system is dropping due south and won’t affect the Northland.  Source, 4:30 PM CDT water vapor satellite image; College of Dupage website.

7 day rainfall forecast valid through Wednesday, May 6, 2015.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.  A quarter to half inch of rain is possible by the middle of next week in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin — This would come in a few waves; One on Friday, another either Saturday Night or Sunday, and a third wave starting around the middle of next week.

Note:  We’ve already had a few bouts of thunderstorms here in the Northland this spring.  The chances for stronger thunderstorms increases here during the next few months so I figured now would be a good time to refresh your memory on the difference between a watch and warning, what exactly defines a severe thunderstorm, and the different types of thunderstorms.  Source, Weather Spotter’s Field Guide handbook

Watch:  Conditions are favorable in a region for severe thunderstorms or tornadoes to develop or to move into your area.  Watches are generally issued for a 4-8 hour period.  Be ready for storms in the near future.  Take action to protect property before the storms arrive in your area.

Warning:  There is either imminent threat or an actual occurrence of large hail, damaging winds or a tornado.  When a warning is issued, respond immediately to protect life and property.  Warnings are generally issued for 30-60 minutes.

*A severe thunderstorms has at least one of the following:

*Hail that is 1 inch or larger:  The size of a quarter.

*Wind gusts of at least 58 mph or higher.  50 knots.

*Tornado

There are 5 types of thunderstorms:

-Ordinary or Single Cell Storm:  Single cell storms are short lived, and usually not severe.

-Pulse Storm:  A pulse storm is a single-cell thunderstorm that is usually not strong; when it is of substantial intensity, it produces severe weather for short periods of time.  Such a storm weakens and then generates another short burst or pulse.

-Mutlicellular Cluster:  This type is the most common storm, consisting of a group of ordinary cells and various stages of the thunderstorm life cycle.

-Multicellular Line:  This category is a long line of storms with a continuous, well developed gust front along the leading edge.

-Supercell:  A supercell is a highly organized thunderstorm with an extremely strong updraft.  They exhibit persistent storm-scale rotation of the updraft-downdraft couplet or mesocyclone.

Typically we get roughly 30-40 thunderstorm days a year in both Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Weather Summary for April 29, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

High pressure is in control of our weather for the most part Today although there is an upper level trough dropping almost due south through the Central/Eastern Great Lakes region Today, were also seeing a disturbance move S/SE out of Southeast Manitoba Today which led to a bit more cloudcover than originally forecast in parts of the Northland — The sunniest spots were over the Arrowhead and also in Eastern portions of Northwest Wisconsin Today.  Temperatures remained mild Today with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s but it was cooler close to Lake Superior.  Winds were generally out of the north or northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (April 29)

An area of high pressure will move off to our north/east during the night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the area with lows in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will turn to the east at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (April 30)

Dry Tomorrow with highs in the 50s and 60s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior as we see a more pronounced lake breeze form.  Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected with winds out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Thursday Night.  A cold front moves into Western Minnesota by daybreak with a chance for showers moving into North Central Minnesota after Midnight Tomorrow Night.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s and 40s with south or east winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (May 1-3)

A weakening cold front will pass through the Upper Midwest on Friday.  Some showers are possible in parts of the Northland mainly before mid Afternoon Friday…The computer models are starting to show some instability building up during the Afternoon-Evening hours near this weak boundary, so we could see a few pop-up showers or thunderstorms redevelop late Friday Afternoon mainly over Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures on Friday are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s with 70s possible west of a International Falls to Aitkin line.  Lows Friday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

High temperatures on Saturday should climb into the 70s across the Northland, a few spots might even make a run at 80 degrees!  Winds will be out of the south or southwest so the warm temperatures should even make it into Superior and Downtown Duluth, but it will be cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior or northeast of the Twin Ports.

Looks mainly dry although a few showers can’t be ruled out in far Northern Minnesota Saturday Afternoon with another chance for a few showers or thunderstorms Saturday Night in Western-Northern portions of Minnesota.  Lows Saturday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

A cold front will move through the area on Sunday.  One difference I have seen in the model guidance Today for Sunday is a lot more instability than what the models were showing 24 hours ago.  The EURO is quite bullish painting a 1000+ j/kg of CAPE across much of Central and Eastern Minnesota Sunday Afternoon, this would be enough to fuel stronger thunderstorms especially if we have enough moisture in place, along with stronger winds aloft and favorable amounts of wind shear.   The NAM also has a nice surge of elevated CAPE moving NE into the area late Saturday Night (The end of their run)  There is a chance for some showers or thunderstorms in the Northland on Sunday so keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans.  High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(May 4-9)

Monday and Tuesday (4th-5th) look mainly dry at this time.  Rain is possible at times from the 6th-9th as low pressure approaches from the west and south, also appears will have an area of high pressure sitting to our north, so a stronger lake wind and cool temperatures will likely setup near Lake Superior during the middle to end of next week.

Temperatures from the 4th-9th are forecast to be near to above average.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Some clouds.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Cooler.  Mostly sunny.  High 51 to 56 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible mainly before Noon.  High 57 to 62.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.

.Saturday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Sunday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 68 to 73 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  56
Low:   36

Sunrise Thursday:  5:56 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:17 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 4:48 PM CDT, Tuesday, April 28, 2015/

There was an area of enhanced cumulus clouds that formed along and ahead of a cold front this afternoon (red circled area on the map) A few spotty sprinkles/brief rain showers occurred in a few locations this afternoon underneath this cumulus deck, most of us stayed dry though.  Source, visible satellite per college of dupage website — 2:30 PM CDT.

Weather tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location

*9 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 60 degrees, and 2 days with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.  Last April only had 2 days at or above 60 degrees and 0 days at or above 70.  Note:  Even April 2012 only had 4 days at or above 60 and 1 day at or above 70, and spring 2012 was a memorable one for how warm it was in the Upper Midwest.

*April is running +2.6 degrees warmer than normal with an average temperature thru the 27th of 41.5 degrees.

*The dry streak continues with just 1.03″ of precipitation so far this month which is -1.20″ below normal.

*It’s been a windy month with 11 days featuring a peak wind gust of 30 mph or greater.

*Low temperature of 51 degrees back on April 12th; Last year we had to wait until May 25th for a low temperature that was warmer than 50 degrees.

Weather Summary for April 28, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A weak cold front and upper level trough moved through the Northland Today.  The main thing that occurred with this system was for more cloud cover than what we have seen recently.  There have also been a few light rain showers and sprinkles dotted around the area Today.  High temperatures were in the 50s and 60s with winds from the north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Wednesday Night (April 28-29)

Mostly cloudy skies in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon will give way to mostly clear skies during the night.  Northern Minnesota will remain clear or partly cloudy the entire night.  A few sprinkles or rain showers are possible early this evening in Northwest Wisconsin and Eastern Minnesota otherwise will have high pressure build into the region from the west/northwest.

Low temperatures Tonight and Wednesday Night will be in the 30s and 40s with highs on Wednesday in the 50s and 60s.  Will have north or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph Tonight and north or east winds at 10 to 20 mph Wednesday and Wednesday Night.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (April 30-May 2)

Dry on Thursday as high pressure moves off to the east, high temperatures will range from the 40s near Lake Superior to the 50s and 60s elsewhere, lows Thursday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

A weak cold front passes through the area on Friday with a round of showers possible in parts of the Northland as this front moves through.  High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Friday Night mainly in the 40s.

Saturday looks like a winner as high temperatures climb into the 60s and 70s, should have some sunshine and dry weather during the day but a few showers are possible in Western parts of the area for Saturday Night.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(May 3-8)

Showers are possible in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Sunday (3rd) and possibly into Monday (4th)  An area of low pressure along with a cold front moving out of the Northern Plains will be responsible for this potential rain threat during the aforementioned time frame.  Computer models aren’t showing too much moisture or instability at this point so the thunderstorm potential looks pretty low in our area but things could change so stay tuned.

Another system could affect the Upper Midwest sometime during the 6th-8th with possible showers.

Near to above average temperatures are expected from the 3rd-8th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Gradual clearing.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday…  Mostly sunny.  High 59 to 64.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Fair.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Mostly sunny.  High 50 to 55 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Friday…  Showers possible.  Mostly cloudy.  High 57 to 62.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  56
Low:   36

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:57 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:16 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 5:11 PM CDT, Monday, April 27, 2015/

Visible satellite image from 5:15 PM CDT Today, Monday, April 27, 2015.  Clouds over the Dakotas late this afternoon are moving east, these clouds are associated with a weakening cold front which will move through the Northland late Tonight and on Tuesday.  Source RAP – real time weather.

Weather Summary for April 27, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A very nice day as high temperatures topped out in the 60s and lower 70s but it was cooler near the immediate Lake Superior shoreline.  Sky conditions varied from sunny to partly sunny with generally mid/high level clouds moving through parts of the area.  Light and variable winds Today at around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Tuesday Night (April 27-28)

High pressure will be centered to our east with another high builds in from the west by Tuesday Night — In between the highs will see a weakening area of low pressure, cold front, and upper level trough move through the Upper Midwest.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period and there could be a few light rain showers at times from late Tonight into Tuesday but consider yourself lucky or unlucky if you get enough rain to wet the pavement.

Low temperatures Tonight will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Tuesday Night mainly in the 40s.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s.  Will have east, west, or north winds Tonight at around 10 mph.  Winds Tuesday and Tuesday Night will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to around 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (April 29-May 1)

Dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday with a chance for showers on Friday as a cold front moves through the area.  High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s from Wednesday through Friday but it will be cooler near Lake Superior especially on Thursday.  Low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(May 2-7)

Saturday (2nd) looks dry.  Could have some showers or possibly a few thunderstorms around the area on Sunday (3rd)  Another chance for some showers toward the 6th or 7th.  Near to above average temperatures are forecast from the 2nd-7th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind light and variable around 10 mph.

.Tuesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  A few sprinkles or light rain showers possible.  High 60 to 65.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Mostly sunny.  High 58 to 63.

.Wednesday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 51 to 56 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.  High 57 to 62.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  56
Low:   35

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:59 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:15 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 6:34 PM CDT, Sunday, April 26, 2015/

Last week’s temperature departure map.  Below average temperatures last week with dark green and light blue colors representing temperatures some 8-10 degrees colder than normal for the entire week.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

2 weeks ago we had temperature departures of 8 to 10+ degrees warmer than average, so quite the reversal took place last week.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Last week’s precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location

April 19-25, 2015

High temperatures:

4/19:  41F/10 degrees below normal
4/20:  38F/14 degrees below normal
4/21:  35F/17 degrees below normal
4/22:  41F/12 degrees below normal
4/23:  50F/3 degrees below normal
4/24:  40F/14 degrees below normal
4/25:  50F/4 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

4/19:  36F/4 degrees above normal

4/21:  28F/4 degrees below normal
4/22:  27F/6 degrees below normal
4/23:  25F/8 degrees below normal
4/24:  35F/1 degree above normal
4/25:  32F/2 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.58″
Normal:  0.61″
Departure:  -0.03″ below normal

Weather Summary for April 26, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A much nicer day compared to the past few.  High pressure of 1022-1026mb stretched from Ontario to the Western Great Lakes Today resulting in wall to wall sunshine in the Northland.  High temperatures ranged from the 40s closer to Lake Superior with 50s and low 60s elsewhere.  Winds were out generally out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Monday Night (April 26-27)

An area of high pressure will remain to our north and east while a weakening area of low pressure, cold front, and upper level trough move slowly east out of the Northern Plains.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected through Monday with partly to mostly cloudy skies Monday Night.

Low temperatures Tonight will mainly be in the 20s and 30s but some teens are possible in the traditional cold spots.  Highs on Monday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Monday Night in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the east, northwest, or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (April 28-30)

A weak frontal boundary along with an upper level trough will move through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, should have more clouds around the area on Tuesday compared to what we saw Today and what will see on Monday, there might even be a few showers around the Northland on Tuesday but this shouldn’t be a big deal.  Dry weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday.

High temperatures are expected to be in the 50s and 60s from Tuesday through Thursday with lows mainly in the 40s Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(May 1-6)

A chance for showers on Friday (1st) as a cold front passes through the area.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible on the 2nd-3rd of May.  Near to above average temperatures are forecast from May 1-6.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Clear.  Low 26 to 31.  Wind east around 10 mph.

.Monday…  Mostly sunny.  High 58 to 63 but it may be cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.  Wind east around 10 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 35 to 40.

.Thursday…  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  55
Low:   35

Sunrise Monday:  6:00 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:13 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 7:25 PM CDT, Saturday, April 25, 2015/

Weather Summary for April 25, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Started the day with quite a bit of cloud cover in the Northland, but skies cleared nicely during the Afternoon hours.  Highs Today were in the 50s with 30s and 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds were out of the east or northeast at 5 to 15 mph with much stronger winds near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Sunday Night (April 25-26)

High pressure will remain to our north while low pressure and a frontal boundary track slowly into the Northern Plains.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are forecast this period with lows Tonight in the 20s and 30s, highs on Sunday will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees but it will be much cooler closer to Lake Superior, lows Sunday Night will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Winds will remain out of the east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (April 27-29)

One high exits to our east on Monday while a new high builds in from the north by Wednesday — In between these highs will see a weak system track through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday with a few showers possible.

Highs from Monday through Wednesday are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s but it will be cooler at times near Lake Superior.  Lows Monday Night and Tuesday Night will mainly be in the 40s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(April 30-May 5)

Dry weather is expected on Thursday (30th) and on Saturday (May 2nd)

Slight chance for showers on Friday (May 1st)

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible on the 3rd-4th of May.

Near to above average temperatures are expected from April 30-May 5; Model trends support daytime highs at or above 70 degrees in much of the Northland late this coming week into next weekend.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Clear.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday…  Mostly sunny.  High 48 to 53 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but it may be cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:   55
Low:   34

Sunrise Sunday:  6:02 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:    8:12 PM CDT

Tim