Monthly Archives: May 2015

/Issued 3:56 PM CDT, Friday, May 29, 2015/

The month of May will end on a cool note.  Here is Tonight’s low temperature forecast per 18z RAP model.  Upper 20s and low-mid 30s inside that red line I drew on the map, and there is a risk for frost.  More frost is possible early Sunday Morning and this risk will extend further southeast into Northwestern Wisconsin.  Source, college of dupage website.

24 hour rainfall map ending the Morning of May 29, 2015.  Quite a bit of rain early Today across the Northwest half of Minnesota.  A little bit in parts of Northwest Wisconsin — in between little to no rain last night.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Area in light blue on the map is under a frost advisory from 3 AM to 7 AM CDT Saturday.  More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=frost%20advisory

Weather Summary for May 29, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

An overcast day with some rain.  A cold front moved southeast across the area today.  As of 3 PM this boundary stretched from Eastern Lake Superior to Central Wisconsin to far Southeast Minnesota.  Showers and a few weak thunderstorms increased in coverage this afternoon in Northwest Wisconsin while mostly light rain occurred in parts of Northeast and East Central Minnesota.  High temperatures Today were in the 50s and 60s with a few spots in the far Southeast portion of Northwest Wisconsin up around 70 degrees.  Winds Today were out of the north or southwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Saturday Night (May 29-30)

A cool but drier pattern arrives Tonight.  Rain in East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin will persist into the Evening hours but will diminish from west-east later in the night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected Tonight with generally partly cloudy sky conditions ahead for Saturday and Saturday Night.  Strong high pressure approaches from the northwest during this period which will usher in quite a cool airmass for late May standards.  850mb temperatures are projected to fall to around +2 to -4C through Saturday.  Low temps Tonight in the 30s and 40s with highs Saturday in the 50s to around 60 degrees, lows Saturday Night will be in the 30s and 40s.  Note:  Areas of frost are possible late Tonight and again late Saturday Night mainly away from Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (May 31-June 2)

Dry weather continues through this period.  High pressure will push off to our east while low pressure sets up over the Rockies and Northern Plains.  Any rain associated with that western system should stay away from Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin through Tuesday.  High temps are expected to be in the 50s and 60s from Sunday through Tuesday with lows Sunday Night in the 30s and 40s, lows Monday Night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

(June 3-7)

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms in the Northland next Wednesday-Thursday (3rd-4th) Dry weather from the 5th-7th.  Low pressure along with a warm front and cold front are forecast to move through the Upper Midwest during the middle portion of next week which will bring increasing chances for some wet weather.  Near to below average temperatures from the 3rd through 7th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Light rain and drizzle ending early.  Mostly cloudy with clearing late.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Mostly sunny.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 58 to 63 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Monday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  66
Low:   44

Sunrise Saturday:  5:20 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:53 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 4:20 PM CDT, Thursday, May 28, 2015

Heaviest rain and most of the rain for that matter stays over the Northwest half of Minnesota Tonight where half to one inch or greater rainfall totals are possible by daybreak.  Source, RAP model, 20z run)

High temperature map for May 27, 2015.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.  If only we could bottle up yesterday’s weather if you live near Lake Superior.  80s yesterday, 40s Today.  Ugh.  Note:  By the way yesterday – May 27 was the first time this year with a high temp at or above 80 degrees at the Duluth Airport.

High temperature report for May 27, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  83F
Brainerd, MN:  82F
Grand Marais, MN:  81F
Hibbing, MN:  83F
Ashland, WI:  84F
Sky Harbor Airport, MN:  82F
Two Harbors, MN:  86F
Silver Bay, MN:  84F
Eveleth, MN:  81F
Longville, MN:  81F
Pine River, MN:  81F
Aitkin, MN:  84F
Moose Lake, MN:  82F
Hinckley, MN:  82F
Cloquet, MN:  82F
Walker, MN:  80F
Superior, WI:  85F
Siren, WI:  82F
Cass Lake, MN:  82F
Grand Portage, MN:  84F
Gordon, WI:  83F

Weather Summary for May 28, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Temperatures near Lake Superior crashed big time today while it was another very warm day away from the lake.  Fog and low clouds were common near Lake Superior today along with easterly winds at 10-25 mph.  High temperatures were only in the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior today while 70s and 80s were common 40-50 miles or so away from Lake Superior.  High pressure was over Southern Hudson Bay today with low pressure over the Northern Plains.  There has been a few scattered showers today in parts of Northern Minnesota as well as in far Southeast portions of Northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 28)

Low pressure and a cold front move east out of the Northern Plains Tonight while another disturbance lifts northeast out of the Central Plains.  Will likely see two areas of rain Tonight, one affecting Western-Northwest parts of the area with the other one targeting parts of Northwest Wisconsin after Midnight.  Mainly dry conditions are expected in between these two areas of rain although a stray shower still can’t be ruled out.  Scattered thunderstorms are possible as well Tonight in Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin but the threat for severe weather is on the low side but a strong storm or two could affect Koochiching, Itasca, and Cass Counties in Northern Minnesota Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast Tonight with areas of fog especially near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures will range from the 40s near Lake Superior to the 50s and 60s elsewhere.  Winds will be out of the south, southwest, or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday Night (May 29)

Occasional rain on Friday with dry weather for Friday Night.  Low pressure and cold front will continue to move east across the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes on Friday with some rain occurring as this system moves through.  A few thunderstorms are possible as well especially over Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Not looking at anything severe though with limited instability in place.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the 60s and 70s with lows Friday Night in the 30s and 40s.  Winds will be out of the southwest or north on Friday and out of the north Friday Night at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (May 30-June 1)

Dry on Saturday with highs in the 50s to lower 60s with lows Saturday Night in the 30s and 40s.  Sunday is also looking mainly dry with highs in the 50s and 60s with lows Sunday Night in the 40s.  A strong area of high pressure will be in control of our weather this weekend which will result in cool temperatures but mainly dry conditions.  Note:  There continues to be a risk for some frost especially Saturday Night-early Sunday Morning for areas away from Lake Superior.  Low pressure heads into the Western High Plains and Northern Plains region on Monday with some showers possibly developing out ahead of this system in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures on Monday are forecast to be in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(June 2-6)

There are chances for showers or thunderstorms in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin from the 2nd-5th.  A southwest flow aloft with low pressure to our west along with a warm front and cold front extending into the Upper Midwest will lead to these off an on rain chances next week.  Moisture will also be on the increase as dew points climb to around 60, possibly even a little higher between Tuesday-Thursday of next week.  Temperatures from the 2nd-6th are forecast to be near to possibly above average.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Areas of fog.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain.  Patchy fog mainly early.  High 62 to 67 but it may be cooler closer to Lake Superior especially during the Morning.  Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 15 mph in the Morning and north to northwest during the Afternoon.

.Friday Night…  Becoming partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Sunday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Monday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  66
Low:   44

Sunrise Friday:  5:20 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:52 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 7:20 PM CDT, Wednesday, May 27, 2015/

Rainfall map for May 26, 2015.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Quite a bit of lightning with the scattered thunderstorms earlier this afternoon in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Here’s what the lightning map looked like at 4:20 PM CDT Today.

Local Storm Report for May 27, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*5:20 PM CDT:  0.88″ HAIL.  South Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  Large volume of hail. Largest was just shy of 1″ in diameter.

*5:36 PM CDT:  0.50″ HAIL.  15 S of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)  Large volume of hail.

*4:44 PM CDT:  0.25″ HAIL.  4 SW of Upper Eau Claire, WI (Douglas County)

*5:08 PM CDT:  0.75″ HAIL.  6 E of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)

*5:00 PM CDT:  0.25″ HAIL.  17 E of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)

*3:19 PM CDT:  0.25″ HAIL.  Maple, WI (Douglas County)

*3:17 PM CDT:  0.25″ HAIL.  Blueberry, WI (Douglas County)

*3:11 PM CDT:  0.25″ HAIL.  Brule, WI (Douglas County)

*5:18 PM CDT:  0.88″ HAIL.  3 S of Hayward, WI (Sawyer County)

*6:04 PM CDT:  0.75″ HAIL.  Stone Lake, WI (Sawyer County)

Weather Summary for May 27, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A cold front dropped south into the Northland today.  A warm, somewhat moist, and unstable atmosphere was in place along and ahead of this boundary Today.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms erupted this afternoon in Northwest Wisconsin and in parts of Northeast and East Central Minnesota.  No severe weather was reported Today, but these storms did produce locally heavy rain and quite a bit of small hail especially in Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures were in the 70s and 80s with winds out of the west, southwest, or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 27)

A frontal boundary will be draped over the area Tonight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast with any lingering showers or thunderstorms ending this evening.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s with winds becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday and Thursday Night (May 28)

Low pressure along with a cold front approach from the west during this period while a warm front lifts slowly NE through Northern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin.  A few showers or thunderstorms can’t be ruled out on Thursday but a better chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms arrive Thursday Night.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected this period with highs on Thursday in the 70s and 80s but it will only be in the 50s closer to Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s closer to Lake Superior.  Winds during this period will be out of the south, east, or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  The chance for severe thunderstorms for Thursday and Thursday Night is very low in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Instability looks pretty marginal.  Winds aloft will be fairly weak.  Not much wind shear either.  Moisture will be increasing though, so there is a chance for locally heavy rainfall especially by Thursday Night.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (May 29-31)

A cold front will be pushing south/east through Eastern Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin on Friday.  Rain chances will linger in most of the Northland on Friday but these chances will be decreasing from NW-SE during the Afternoon hours.  Strong high pressure moves in Friday Night and lingers near the area through Sunday so it will be dry during that aforementioned time frame.  It will be cool though, and there is a chance for frost inland from Lake Superior Saturday Night-early Sunday Morning.

High temperatures from Friday through Sunday will be in the 50s and 60s with lows Friday Night generally in the 40s with lows Saturday Night in the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(June 1-5)

This entire period holds a chance for showers or thunderstorms as low pressure, warm front, cold front, and upper level trough move east out of the Western U.S. and Northern Plains.  All day rains are not expected with this type of setup, but scattered rain/thunderstorms could erupt from time to time next week.  Near to possibly above average temperatures are expected from the 1st-5th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 47 to 52.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Much cooler compared to Today especially near Lake Superior! Partly to mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  High 65 to 70 but around 50 closer to Lake Superior.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible mainly late.  Low 50 to 55 but in the 40s near Lake Superior.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday…  Occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  High 62 to 67.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Saturday Night…  Mostly clear.  Low 35 to 40.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  66
Low:   44

Sunrise Thursday:  5:21 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:51 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 4:25 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 26, 2015/

Widespread half to one inch rainfall amounts expected Tonight in parts of Northwest Wisconsin with lesser amounts in far Northwest Wisconsin and in far Eastern Minnesota.  The Twin Ports should stay dry Tonight.  Source, 19z RAP model.

Not a huge chance for severe weather Wednesday Afternoon but a few storms might develop in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  The map below is the calibrated severe thunderstorm probability forecast for Wednesday Afternoon.  Source, 15z SREF model; Storm Prediction Center.

One of the short range computer models this one being the 4km NAM (18z run) does show a few t-storms developing Wednesday Afternoon in Northwest Wisconsin.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Rainfall map for the 24 hour period ending the Morning of May 26, 2015.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Historic flooding has been occurring in parts of the Southern Plains during the past 30 days or so.  Here’s a map showing how much rain has fallen between April 26 – May 25, 2015.  The blue and purple colors on the map are 13-18″+ of rain!  Incredible!  Source, Southeast Regional Climate Center.

This next map is the departure from normal precipitation from April 26 – May 25, 2015.  8-12″+ above average in the blue and purple areas on the map.  Amazing!  Source, Southeast Regional Climate Center.

Weather Summary for May 26, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

One system pulled off to the east/northeast today but right on its heels is another one which is moving northeast into Wisconsin late today.  This system shows up nicely on water vapor satellite imagery with a good looking spin (bundle of energy) lifting northeast out of Iowa.  Widespread rain is occurring this afternoon in most of Wisconsin back through Southern and Eastern Minnesota.  Here in the Northland there’s been some rain this afternoon in parts of Northwest Wisconsin and far Eastern Minnesota — most of the rain thus far has been along and southeast of a line from near Sandstone to Solon Springs to Mason.  Seeing quite a range in high temperatures Today with 70s in Northern Minnesota thanks to some sun at times while clouds and some rain has kept temperatures in the 50s and 60s in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the north, east, or variable in direction at around 5-15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 26)

An area of low pressure will move to Eastern Lake Superior by daybreak while an upper level disturbance continues to lift northeast through Eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.  This system will continue to produce rain Tonight in Northwest Wisconsin and in far Eastern Minnesota, the rain should start to diminish though from west to east after Midnight.  A few spotty showers or thunderstorms could develop during the Evening in far Western-Northwest parts of the area but this activity should be very isolated and will dissipate before Midnight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area Tonight with the potential for some fog.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s but a few spots might dip into the 40s.  Winds will be out of the north, east, or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night (May 27)

A cold front will sink south out of Ontario and into the Northland during this period.  Lingering moisture and some instability will be found along and ahead of this boundary Tomorrow.  Dew points of 45-55 degrees combined with CAPE of around 500-1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices around -2C are forecast to be in place in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday.  Spotty showers or thunderstorms could develop during the Afternoon hours especially in Northwest Wisconsin with a lesser chance in Eastern Minnesota.  Severe weather probabilities are on the low side with weak winds aloft and little to no shear, but if a storm manages to develop it will be capable of producing lightning, brief heavy downpours, and possibly some small hail and or gusty winds.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast this period with highs on Wednesday in the 70s and 80s, lows Wednesday Night in the 40s and 50s.  Winds Tomorrow will be out of the west or northwest at 10 to around 20 mph.  Winds Tomorrow Night will shift to the east or northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (May 28-30)

Will be dealing with another low pressure system along with a warm front and cold front which will pass through the Upper Midwest from Thursday into Friday — Scattered rain for the Northland Thursday and Friday.  A few thunderstorms are possible too but the overall threat for severe weather looks quite low with limited instability, marginal shear, and generally weak winds aloft the way it looks now.

Dry weather should return from NW-SE by Friday Afternoon or Evening and will continue through Saturday as strong high pressure builds in from Manitoba and Ontario.

High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 70s with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.  Lows Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Highs on Friday will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with lows Friday Night in the 30s and 40s.  Highs on Saturday will only be in the 40s and 50s.

Note:  There is a chance for frost in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin this coming Saturday Night and possibly on Sunday Night too.  The frost chance is greatest for areas away from Lake Superior.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(May 31-June 5)

Cool temperatures continue on Sunday along with dry weather as high pressure remains in control.  The period from June 1-5 could feature some showers or thunderstorms at times as a warmer, more moist, and unstable airmass develops over the Upper Midwest while low pressure and an upper level trough approach from the west.  Below average temperatures on May 31 followed by near to possibly above average temperatures from June 1-5.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming west late.

.Wednesday…  Warmer! Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible during the Afternoon.  High 77 to 82.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind becoming east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Much cooler! Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60 but cooler near Lake Superior.

.Thursday Night…  Mostly cloudy.  Showers possible.  Low 45 to 50.

.Friday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Showers possible.  High 63 to 68.

.Friday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 37 to 42.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 50 to 55.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  65
Low:   43

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:22 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:50 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 4:45 PM CDT, Monday, May 25, 2015/

Wednesday looks like a warm one.  Good beach and lake weather! The image below is the 925mb temperature forecast for Wednesday PM, May 27, 2015 per 18z NAM.  Source, College of Dupage website.

Widespread +22 to +24C temps at 925mb, should have no problem hitting and exceeding the 80 degree mark in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

Rainfall report for May 24-25, 2015 ending at 4 PM CDT May 25, 2015
Source:  MesoWest.com

Orr, MN:  0.27″
Cook, MN:  0.09″
Cass Lake, MN:  0.37″
Walker, MN:  1.11″
Longville, MN:  1.12″
Pine River, MN:  1.82″

Brainerd, MN:  1.35″
Aitkin, MN:  1.50″
McGregor, MN:  1.05″
Hinckley, MN:  0.76″
Moose Lake, MN:  0.56″
Cloquet, MN:  0.74″

Saginaw, MN:  0.74″
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.75″
Two Harbors, MN:  0.97″
Hibbing, MN:  0.90″
Isabella, MN:  0.76″
Ely, MN:  0.43″

Grand Marais, MN:  0.58″
Grand Portage, MN:  0.92″
Superior, WI:  0.97″
Washburn, WI:  0.45″
Barnes, WI:  0.68″
Solon Springs, WI:  0.72″

Minong, WI:  0.89″
Siren, WI:  0.47″
Hayward, WI:  0.69″
Clam Lake, WI:  0.85″
Glidden, WI:  0.73″
Phillips, WI:  1.17″
Ashland, WI:  0.61″

Weather tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location

Number of days at or above 70 degrees so far this May:  6
Number of days at or above 70 degrees last May thru the 25th:  5

Number of days at or above 80 degrees so far this May:  0
Number of days at or above 80 degrees last May thru the 25th:  2

Year to date total for number of days at or above 70 degrees:  8 compared to 5 days at this time last year.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location

May 17-23, 2015

High temperatures:

5/17:  63F/Normal
5/18:  51F/12 degrees below normal
5/19:  57F/6 degrees below normal
5/20:  65F/1 degree above normal
5/21:  68F/4 degrees above normal
5/22:  73F/9 degrees above normal
5/23:  78F/14 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

5/17:  44F/3 degrees above normal
5/18:  33F/8 degrees below normal
5/19:  33F/9 degrees below normal
5/20:  32F/10 degrees below normal
5/21:  48F/6 degrees above normal
5/22:  37F/5 degrees below normal
5/23:  53F/10 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.36″
Normal:  0.74″
Departure:  -0.38″ below normal

Last week’s temperature departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.  Below average in the Northland but greater temperature departures were found to our southwest in parts of Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa.

Last week’s precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.  Drier than average to the southeast, wetter than average to our west/northwest.

Weather Summary for May 25, 2015
Location:  Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

A gloomy end to the holiday weekend.  An area of low pressure moved northeast into the Upper Midwest today bringing widespread rain to the Northland.  As of 3 PM the bulk of the rain was falling along and north of Highway 2 while a few scattered showers continued to develop further south in East Central Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin.  High temperatures on this Memorial Day 2015 were in the 50s with 60s at International Falls, and also in Southern parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds Today were out of the north, east or southwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (May 25)

Widespread rain will continue this evening in Northern Minnesota, this area of rain will diminish then from SW-NE later this evening.  Elsewhere there will be a continued risk for scattered showers through the night.  Expect patchy fog as well Tonight under a mostly cloudy sky.  Low pressure will remain over the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes Tonight.  Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s with winds out of the north, east, or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night (May 26)

Low pressure tracks slowly toward the east into Wisconsin during this period.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected in our area.  There is a chance for some more rain Tomorrow and Tomorrow Night in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  A few more showers are also possible in far Northern Minnesota.  High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 70s with 50s and 60s near Lake Superior.  Lows Tuesday Night will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Winds during this period will be out of the north, east, or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (May 27-29)

A cold front is forecast to move south into the Northland on Wednesday.  A very warm airmass will be found out ahead of this boundary with high temperatures expected to climb into the 80s in our area on Wednesday.  A few spotty showers or thunderstorms might develop during Wednesday Afternoon and Evening but moisture will be somewhat limited.  Winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere look quite weak so I don’t think will be dealing with any strong or severe thunderstorms if storms do develop on Wednesday.  There will be some instability though with CAPE of around 1000 j/kg and Lifted Indices projected to be in the -1 to -4C range.  So pop-up pulse type storms could certainly develop on Wednesday.

Will see another system approach from the west for Thursday and early Friday bringing more showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to the Northland.  Highs on Thursday will range from the 40s and 50s near Lake Superior to the 70s and even some 80s elsewhere.  Highs on Friday are expected to top out in the 60s and 70s.

Low temperatures Wednesday Night and Thursday Night will be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior for Thursday Night.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(May 30-June 4)

A cool weekend ahead but it will be dry as strong high pressure builds south out of Ontario.  Note:  There’s a pretty good chance for frost Saturday Night and maybe Sunday Night too for areas away from Lake Superior.  Chances for showers or thunderstorms return from June 2-4 as low pressure approaches from the west.  Below average temperatures on May 30-31 followed by near to above average temperatures from June 1-4.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Areas of fog and drizzle with occasional showers.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53 but a little cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind northeast around 10 mph.

.Tuesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  High 65 to 70 but cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind becoming southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Warm.  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.

.Wednesday Night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.

.Thursday…  Much cooler.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.

.Thursday Night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 40 to 45.

.Friday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  65
Low:   43

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:23 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:49 PM CDT

Tim