/Issued 5:01 PM CDT, Friday, July 31, 2015/
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin especially from late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night — At this time it appears the greatest chance for severe weather will be over Central, Eastern, and Southern Minnesota. Source, 15z SREF calibrated severe thunderstorm probability forecast; Storm Prediction Center.
Surface map forecast valid for Saturday PM. Source, WSI.
Red line on the map=Warm front
The system over the Dakotas will track southeast over the weekend spreading scattered showers and thunderstorms into parts of the Northland from late Saturday into Sunday.
Rainfall report for July 30, 2015
Source: National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota
Embarrass, MN: 0.14″
Grand Portage, MN: 0.43″
1 WSW of Saxon, WI: 0.31″
Hurley, WI: 0.32″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI: 0.29″
August climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location
Temperature: 64.3 degrees
Sunrise on the 1st: 5:48 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 6:26 AM CDT
Sunset on the 1st: 8:41 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 7:52 PM CDT
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: July 31, 2015
A mild and breezy day in the Northland with scattered showers and thunderstorms moving from NW-SE through parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin today. Most of these storms were on the weak side with brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning being the main hazards from them, but there have been a few stronger storms with a potential for some hail and gusty winds this afternoon. High temperatures today were in the 70s to lower 80s with a 3rd day in a row with a gusty wind out of the west or northwest at 10-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (July 31)
Scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the area will come to an end before Midnight. Main threats from this activity will be from lightning and heavy downpours with small hail and gusty winds also possible. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Winds will be out of the west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts during the evening hours.
Saturday and Saturday Night (August 1)
August will open on a mild note as high temperatures climb into the 70s and 80s under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Lows Saturday Night will be in the 50s and 60s.
A low pressure system moving southeast out of the Northern Plains could bring some showers or thunderstorms to parts of the Northland especially from late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Note: Not expecting any severe weather at the moment as those chances will be confined to areas along and south of the Interstate 94 corridor in Central and Southern Minnesota. However, with 30-40 knots of wind shear and strong mid level winds in place if we can get enough instability and moisture to build into our area, then we could be dealing with a few strong to severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon-evening hours on Saturday.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (August 2-4)
A few showers or thunderstorms could linger on Sunday as low pressure exits to our southeast. Mainly dry for Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with highs Monday and Tuesday in the 60s and 70s. Lows Sunday night and Monday night will mainly be in the 50s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
Near to below average temperatures are forecast from the 5th-10th. Could be dealing with a few showers or thunderstorms sometime during the 8th-10th time frame the way it looks now.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Breezy especially during the evening. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph this evening.
.Saturday… Partly to mostly sunny. High 78 to 83. Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday Night… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers or thunderstorms possible. Low 60 to 65. Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Partly to mostly cloudy. A few showers or thunderstorms possible. High 77 to 82.
.Sunday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 52 to 57.
.Monday… Partly sunny. High 72 to 77.
.Monday Night… Partly cloudy. Low 50 to 55.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75.
Normal temperatures for Friday
Sunrise Saturday: 5:48 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 8:41 PM CDT