August 30, 2015 Weather Report – Warm and muggy; More smoke and haze; Areas of low clouds and fog late tonight-Monday AM.

/Issued 8:24 PM CDT, Sunday, August 30, 2015/

Last week’s temperature departure map.  No surprise the entire Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes had well below average temperatures last week.  This map should look a lot different for this week.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Last week’s precipitation departure map.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location

High temperatures:

8/23:  60 F/13 degrees below normal
8/24:  56 F/17 degrees below normal
8/25:  66 F/7 degrees below normal
8/26:  73 F/Normal
8/27:  72 F/Normal
8/28:  79 F/7 degrees above normal
8/29:  74 F/2 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

8/23:  51 F/3 degrees below normal
8/24:  47 F/6 degrees below normal
8/25:  48 F/5 degrees below normal
8/26:  42 F/11 degrees below normal
8/27:  45 F/8 degrees below normal
8/28:  58 F/5 degrees above normal
8/29:  58 F/6 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.07″
Normal:  0.87″
Departure:  -0.80″ below normal

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.




















Monday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.




















Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  August 30, 2015

A warm and humid second to last day of August.  Smoke and haze continued today with partly to mostly sunny skies.  Highs were in the upper 70s to low 80s so a bit cooler than what was forecast especially over Northern Minnesota.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Dew points were generally in the 60s today.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Monday night (August 30-31)

Dry through Monday.  A cold front approaches from the west with a warm southerly flow continuing ahead of this boundary, could see a few spotty showers and thunderstorms Monday night as that cold front moves in, anything that does develop should be pretty isolated though the way it looks now.  Lows tonight and Monday night in the 60s with a few spots dropping into the 50s.  Highs on Monday in the 70s and 80s.  Dew points will be in the 60s, possibly up around 70 degrees so it will feel muggy.  Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 20 mph.  Note:  Low clouds and areas of fog could develop in parts of the Northland tonight into Monday morning, and will likely be dealing with more smoke and haze through Monday night.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (September 1-3)

A frontal boundary will remain over or near the Northland Tuesday and Wednesday.  Moisture and instability combined with this weak boundary could lead to a few spotty showers or thunderstorms over parts of the Northland but this does not look like a big deal at the moment.  Highs from Tuesday through Thursday are expected to be in the 80s with cooler temperatures at times near Lake Superior especially on Wednesday and Thursday.  Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(September 4-9)

There is a chance for some showers or thunderstorms at times from Friday-Sunday (4th-6th) A cold front will move slowly east out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest over the Labor Day weekend — This front combined with what should be a warm, moist, and unstable environment along and ahead of the front could result in some showers or thunderstorms over the weekend.  Above average temperatures on the 4th-5th with near to below average temperatures from the 6th-9th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Haze and smoke.  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Haze and smoke.  Patchy fog or low clouds during the morning.  Partly to mostly sunny.  Muggy.  High 79 to 84.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday night…  Muggy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.  Low 65 to 70.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Muggy.  Partly cloudy.  High 80 to 85.

.Tuesday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

.Wednesday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 80 to 85.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  71
Low:   52

Sunrise Monday:  6:27 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:50 PM CDT

Tim

August 29, 2015 Weather Report – Lots of smoke and haze! Warm on Sunday (90s possible in Northern MN) Dew points nearing 70 by Monday. Storm and rainfall reports from last night included in this post

/Issued 5:35 PM CDT, Saturday, August 29, 2015/

12-hour enhanced Infrared satellite loop starting at 1:30 AM this morning.  The darker blue colors indicate colder cloud tops.  Pretty interesting movement to those thunderstorms last night as they started over Ontario and along the Minnesota-Ontario border, then all of a sudden the storms dropped almost due south affecting the North Shore of Lake Superior and far Northwest Wisconsin.  Source, unisys weather.
















Rainfall estimate map from last night.  Source, WSI.  A significant amount of rain fell over the Arrowhead of Minnesota and Borderland region with rain totals of 1-3″+ in some locations.













Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.



















Sunday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.



















Rainfall report for August 28-29, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Grand Marais, MN:  1.17″
25 E of Ely, MN:  2.20″
Embarrass, MN:  1.05″
4 E of Island Lake, MN:  0.32″
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.40″
2 S of Tower, MN:  0.51″

Local Storm Reports for August 28-29, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*1:25 PM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  25 NW of Ely, MN (St. Louis County)  Trees knocked down over a US Forest Service Road near Echo Trail near Moose River.

*1:47 AM CDT:  0.25″ HAIL.  2 W of Robinson, MN (St. Louis County)

*1:55 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  3 ENE of Soudan, MN (St. Louis County)  Trees down near Highway 169 at mile marker 269.

*2:15 AM CDT:  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  2 N of Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)  Trees down near Intersection of Highway 21/26 and Road 969.

*2:18 AM CDT:  0.25″ HAIL.  Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)

*2:21 AM CDT:  0.25″ HAIL.  1 E of Embarrass, MN (St. Louis County)

*1:22 AM CDT:  0.88″ HAIL.  2 SSE of Cummings Lake, MN (St. Louis County)  Penny to nickle sized hail reported on the north end of Little Crab Lake.

Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  August 29, 2015


A lot of smoke and haze in the air today which obscured the sun quite a bit, we also had some clouds that passed through the area today.  Still mild though with highs in the low and mid 70s and kind of humid with dew points mostly in the 60s.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Sunday night (August 29-30)

Moisture and instability will linger over the Northland during this period but no real trigger in place to spark off convection.  Partly to at times mostly cloudy skies through this period and will probably have to deal with more haze and smoke.  Lows tonight and Sunday night will be in the 50s and 60s with highs on Sunday in the 70s and 80s with a few 90s possible in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Monday through Wednesday (August 31-September 2)

A cold front will move into the area on Monday — Plenty of instability and moisture as this front approaches but the atmosphere looks pretty capped so the chances for showers and thunderstorms are on the low side but can’t completely be ruled out especially as we head into Monday night.

This boundary will likely linger near or over the Northland on Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance for a few spotty showers and thunderstorms on both those days.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.  Low temperatures Monday night and Tuesday night will be in the 50s and 60s.

Note:  It will be humid at least through Monday with dew points holding in the 60s until then, might even have some 70 degree dew points on Monday.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(September 3-8)

Near to above average temperatures are expected from the 3rd-8th of September.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible at times during the 3rd-6th time frame.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Smoke and haze.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 59 to 64.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Smoke and haze.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 80 to 85.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

.Monday night…  Isolated showers or thunderstorms possible.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday…  Partly sunny.  High 79 to 84.

.Tuesday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  71
Low:   52

Sunrise Sunday:  6:25 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:52 PM CDT

Tim




August 28, 2015 Weather Report – Scattered showers/t-storms tonight mainly north of Duluth; Areas of low clouds/fog Saturday AM otherwise a dry and warm weekend ahead

/Issued 7:57 PM CDT, Friday, August 28, 2015/

Radar image from 7:57 PM CDT this evening.  All of the strong to severe thunderstorms so far this evening have been just north of the border in Ontario with a few storms hugging the Minnesota – Ontario border as of 8 PM.  Movement of this activity is toward the east/southeast.











Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.




















Saturday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.



















Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  August 28, 2015

A west-northwest flow aloft was in place over the area today with an area of low pressure off to our northwest. A warm, moist, and unstable atmosphere combined with a disturbance which moved southeast through the area today led to some showers and thunderstorms in far Northern Minnesota and over the Arrowhead.  Dry conditions prevailed elsewhere.  Highs were in the 70s to low 80s with dew points in the 60s so it did feel a little on the muggy side today.  Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Saturday night (August 28-29)

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight mainly over Northern Minnesota. The rest of this period looks dry.  Expect partly cloudy skies although there could be times that feature mostly cloudy sky conditions in parts of the area.  Lows tonight and Saturday night will be in the 50s and 60s with highs on Saturday in the 70s and 80s.  Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Sunday through Tuesday (August 30-September 1)

Mainly dry during this period.  Highs in the 70s and 80s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.  Lows Sunday night and Monday night in the 50s and 60s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(September 2-7)

Near to above average temperatures from the 2nd-7th of September.  Could be a few showers or thunderstorms at times around the area during the long range.  The flow aloft will be out of southwest with a trough to our west and ridge to our south/east.  It will be rather humid and unstable in the Upper Midwest with a frontal boundary likely setting up near or slightly west of the region.  Disturbances embedded within the SW mid/upper level flow could cause a few showers or thunderstorms at times starting the middle of next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible late.  Low 53 to 58.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Low clouds and fog possible early.  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 79 to 84.

.Sunday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

.Monday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 79 to 84.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  72
Low:   52

Sunrise Saturday:  6:24 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   7:54 PM CDT

Tim


August 27, 2015 Weather Report – Haze and smoke; Mild to warm temperatures into next week; Risk for storms up north on Friday (A few could be on the strong side)

/Issued 7:15 PM CDT, Thursday, August 27, 2015/

Friday’s severe weather outlook.  Source, WSI; Storm Prediction Center.

Light green=Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms (1)
Dark green=Risk for non-severe thunderstorms

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

Friday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

Looks like a warm pattern for our area as we end the month of August and start the month of September.

500mb maps from the Weather Prediction Center.  Note:  A pattern like the one that is shown below is usually a warm one in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Sunday, August 30, 2015.

Tuesday, September 1, 2015.

Thursday, September 3, 2015.

Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  August 27, 2015

A mild day as we near the end of August.  High temperatures were in the 70s today with 60s close to Lake Superior.  Quite a bit of haze/smoke in the air today thanks to all the fires out west.  Otherwise we had a partly sunny-mostly cloudy day with winds out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (August 27)

Low pressure which was over the Western High Plains early this evening will move toward the east/northeast tonight.  This system will bring rain and a few thunderstorms to the Southern half of Minnesota tonight with some showers possibly spreading as far north as Southern portions of the Northland after Midnight.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be found in our area tonight with milder low temperatures compared to the last few nights when 30s and 40s blanketed the area, tonight’s low will mainly be in the 50s.  Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday and Friday night (August 28)

Low pressure stays south of Minnesota as it moves off to the east during this period…Rain associated with this system will stay south of the Northland although some showers could make it as far north as the Hayward Lakes area on Friday.

A separate system approaching from the NW will likely trigger showers and thunderstorms in parts of Northern Minnesota either Friday afternoon or evening.  There will be sufficient instability and moisture in place along with a modest northwest flow aloft and southwest winds near the surface and 850mb — So a few of the storms could become strong to severe in Northern Minnesota Friday afternoon and or evening.

Highs on Friday are forecast to be in the 70s and 80s with lows Friday night in the 50s and 60s.  Winds during this period will be out of the south, southwest, or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Saturday through Monday (August 29-31)

Mainly dry from Saturday through Monday as an upper level ridge builds into the Upper Midwest.  High temperatures are expected to be in the 70s and 80s during this period with lows in the 50s and 60s.  Note:  It might be cooler at times closer to Lake Superior this weekend.  Dew points will likely be in the mid 50s and low 60s so a little on the humid side but not terribly humid.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(September 1-6)

Near to above average temperatures are forecast from the 1st-6th.  Looks like a warm pattern next week as an upper level ridge will be centered to our south/east with a trough out west — This will result in a mild southwest mid and upper level flow across the Upper Midwest as we kick off the month of September.  Could be a few showers or thunderstorms around the area sometime the middle or end of next week.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 51 to 56.  Wind south to southeast around 10 mph.

.Friday…  Partly sunny.  High 72 to 77 but it could be cooler closer to Lake Superior.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind south to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 73 to 78.

.Saturday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 56 to 61.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 75 to 80.

.Sunday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 57 to 62.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  High 78 to 83.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  72
Low:   53

Sunrise Friday:  6:23 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   7:56 PM CDT

Tim

August 24, 2015 Weather Report – 2nd coldest high temperature on record for August 24th at Duluth and International Falls today; Very cool tonight and Tuesday night (Patchy frost potential over the Iron Range Tuesday night) Cool temps on Tuesday but hopefully will have a bit more sun

/Issued 7:45 PM CDT, Monday, August 24, 2015/

500mb height maps for the next several days starting with today, Monday, August 24, 2015.  Source, 12z EUROPEAN ensemble model; TropicalTidbits.com

Green colors=Lower heights/Cooler temperatures

Thursday, August 27, 2015.  Orange and red colors indicate higher heights/warmer temperatures.

Sunday, August 30, 2015.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

Tuesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, MN.

*2nd coldest August 24th on record at both Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota*

The high temperature at the Duluth Airport was 56 degrees today which tied with 1903 and 1890 for 2nd coldest high temperature ever recorded on August 24th.  The coldest August 24th on record occurred in 1914 with a high temperature of 55 degrees.

The high temperature at International Falls was 53 degrees today which makes today the 2nd coldest August 24th on record.  The coldest August 24th on record occurred in 1950 with a high temperature of 51 degrees.

Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date:  August 24th, 2015

Unseasonably cool air remained over the Upper Midwest today thanks to a large area of low pressure over Northern Ontario and an upper level trough extending west into the Great Lakes.  Cyclonic flow around these features led to widespread low clouds, patchy light showers and drizzle and gusty northwest winds.  Highs today were only in the 50s with the Brainerd Lakes area making it into the low 60s.  Note:  These temperatures today are a good 15-20+ degrees colder than average for late August.  Northwest winds ranged from 10 to 20 mph today with gusts over 30 mph.

Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Tuesday night (August 24-25)

Low pressure moves slowly east through Northern Ontario and into Northern Quebec through this period with high pressure off to our west.  Mostly cloudy skies will continue tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday and clear to partly cloudy skies for Tuesday night.  Lingering spotty drizzle or light rain showers are possible into midday Tuesday over far Northeast Minnesota and in far Northern Wisconsin.  Low temperatures tonight and Tuesday night will be in the 40s to low 50s but some spots could dip into the 30s with even an outside chance for patchy frost especially Tuesday night.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s with a few spots reaching the low 70s in Western portions of the Northland.  Winds will be out of the northwest or north at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts tonight and Tuesday.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium.

Wednesday through Friday (August 26-28)

Dry on Wednesday as high pressure passes through the region.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Some showers or isolated thunderstorms could affect parts of the Northland Thursday and Friday but there is a chance that most of the rain will remain south of our local area later this week.  Highs on Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s with lows Thursday night in the 50s to lower 60s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(August 29-September 3)

Near to possibly above average temperatures are forecast from August 29 through September 3.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible at times from August 30-September 3.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  High 62 to 67.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 42 to 47.  Wind north around 10 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.

.Wednesday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.

.Thursday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.

.Thursday night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 55 to 60.

.Friday…  Considerable cloudiness.  High 68 to 73.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  73
Low:   53

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:19 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:01 PM CDT

Tim