/Issued 3:56 PM CDT, Friday, October 30, 2015/
Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 3:30 PM CDT today. Source, WSI. Light rain is beginning to move into Southwest Minnesota late this afternoon – Expect this area of light rain to push northeast into East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin including the Twin Ports after 6-7 PM this evening. Rain will linger the longest in Northwest Wisconsin.
Between the system tonight and the other one moving in Saturday afternoon/night here’s how much rain we could get in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin per 18z NAM-12km model. Potential for between 0.05″-0.25″ of rain over the Northland by early Sunday morning. Source, TropicalTidbits.com
Model mayhem for late next week. Today’s 12z run of the EUROPEAN model cranks out the season’s first winter storm next Friday (November 6) in much of the Northland with gusty northeast winds and several inches of snow as strong low pressure lifts northeast out of Iowa. This is a drastic change from the 00z EUROPEAN run which showed no such storm for next Friday – See image below. Source, TropicalTidbits.com
Here is the 00z EUROPEAN model run from early this morning also valid for next Friday, November 6. Weak low over Western Ohio but that wouldn’t influence the weather in Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. What a change in two model runs. Wow! Source, TropicalTidbits.com
Big time rain event today in parts of South Texas between Austin and San Antonio. Rainfall totals ranging from 6-10″+ fell today with one hour rainfall totals approaching 5″-6″ in some areas. Incredible! Source, National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio, Texas.
Hopefully this works, it’s a 7-day satellite animation over the past week. It’s a large file so it may take a while to load. Source, http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo.html
Tonight’s low temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Saturday’s high temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Weather Summary for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Date: October 30, 2015
Mostly cloudy skies with areas of fog and drizzle this morning did give way to some afternoon clearing from SW-NE in the Northland. Highs today were in the 40s with a few Southern locales up around 50 late this afternoon. Winds were out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with a few higher gusts.
Forecast Discussion for Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: High.
Tonight (October 30)
A warm front approaching from the west combined with an upper level disturbance moving in from the southwest will lead to a light rainfall event tonight mainly from East Central Minnesota through Northwest Wisconsin. Northern Minnesota should escape the rain tonight. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s with southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph.
Saturday and Saturday night (October 31)
Light rain could linger most of the morning in parts of Northwest Wisconsin while mainly dry weather covers Northern and Eastern portions of Minnesota.
One disturbance will exit off to our east tomorrow while another one approaches from the west/northwest late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night – This second one is somewhat stronger and will have a surface low and cold front associated with it. Should see scattered rain showers push east and southeast through parts of the Northland Saturday afternoon and night.
Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Saturday night in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Note: Computer models are showing a little bit of instability moving into the Northland Saturday afternoon-early evening with CAPE of around 100 j/kg, but lapse rates will become very steep – approaching 8.0-8.5 c/km while H5 temperatures fall into the -20 to -25C range. Because of these ingredients I can’t rule out an isolated afternoon or evening thunderstorm in parts of our area on Saturday.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: High.
Sunday through Tuesday (November 1-3)
A few showers can’t be ruled out in parts of the area on Sunday as weak lows/disturbances continue to move across the Upper Midwest although right now it looks like Northern Minnesota would have the greatest chance for getting a few showers on Sunday. Mainly dry for Monday and Tuesday.
Highs from Sunday through Tuesday are expected to reach the 40s and 50s with 60s possible over Southern areas. Lows Sunday night and Monday night will be in the 30s and 40s.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: Low to Medium.
A large trough of low pressure will set up over the Western U.S. with a ridge covering the Southern/Eastern U.S. Southwest flow aloft will develop from the Plains to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes late this weekend into the middle of next week. Low pressure is expected to lift north/east out of the Rockies between the 3rd-4th of November. Most if not all of the precipitation with this storm could pass west/north of our local area though based on the current storm track.
As you saw above model differences are very large for late next week as there could be another storm coming out of the Rockies or Plains from the 5th-7th.
Above average temperatures on the 4th followed by near to possibly below average temperatures from the 5th-9th.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Light rain developing after 7 PM but ending after midnight. Considerable cloudiness. Low 40 to 45. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday… Considerable cloudiness. Scattered afternoon showers possible. High 45 to 50. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Saturday night… Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers possible. Low 37 to 42. Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Sunday… Partly sunny. High 50 to 55.
.Sunday night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Monday… Partly sunny. High 52 to 57.
.Monday night… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40 to 45.
.Tuesday… Partly sunny. High 51 to 56.
Normal temperatures for Friday
Sunrise Saturday: 7:49 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 5:55 PM CDT