November 30, 2015 Weather Report – A messy Tuesday morning commute; Temperatures close to 40 by the end of the week

/Issued 5:07 PM CST, Monday, November 30, 2015/

Surface map forecast.  Source, NOAA; NDFD.

Colors on the map:

Blue=Snow
Purple and orange=Ice/Mixed precipitation
Green=Rain

12 AM tonight:

6 AM CST Tuesday:

12 PM CST Tuesday:

6 PM CST Tuesday:

Probability for snowfall totals of at least 4″ valid through 6 PM CST Tuesday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Red=70% probability for at least 4″ of snow
Green=40% probability for at least 4″ of snow
Blue=10% probability for at least 4″ of snow

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 4:45 PM CST.  Source, WSI.

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain
Pink=Mixed precipitation

Winter weather advisory in effect in most of the Northland.  More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Tuesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

With the expected snowfall here’s a link to Minnesota road conditions:  http://hb.511mn.org/#roadReports?timeFrame=TODAY&layers=allReports%2CroadReports%2CwinterDriving%2CvoxReports%2CweatherWarnings%2CotherStates

A link to Wisconsin road conditions:  http://www.511wi.gov/web/traffic/winterroadconditions

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  November 30, 2015

The final day of November ended on a mild note but what else is new.  Highs were in the 30s which is roughly 5-10 degrees warmer than normal for November 30th.  Mostly cloudy skies covered the area today with a few pockets of light snow, flurries or mixed precipitation pushing SE-NW through parts of the area but by far the most significant snow has been falling over portions of Southern Minnesota today with reports of 2-5″ snow totals through late this afternoon.  Surface map at 4 PM today places a 1012mb low over far Northeast Nebraska.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight (November 30)

Surface low pressure will lift slowly northeast into Southwestern Minnesota during the night.  Bands of snow will gradually push in a south-north direction through the Northland tonight.  Bursts of moderate snow will be possible tonight mainly in East Central Minnesota and in parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Lows will be in the 20s and 30s with east or northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Tuesday and Tuesday night (December 1)

Meteorological winter kicks off with a slushy snowfall event.  Low pressure at the surface and aloft will lift north/northeast through the Upper Midwest and into the Western/Central Great Lakes during this period.  Expect occasional wet snow in our area tomorrow and tomorrow night with a few bands of moderate snow in parts of the area.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s with lows Tuesday night in the 20s and 30s.  Winds will be out of the south, east or north on Tuesday at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.  Winds Tuesday night will be out of the south, north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Note:  Near the immediate Lake Superior shoreline including locations below the hill in Duluth and in Superior there is a possibility that the snow will mix with or change to drizzle and rain at times on Tuesday.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (December 2-4)

Lingering light snow showers and flurries are possible Wednesday morning as low pressure exits to the east.  Mainly dry weather is expected from Wednesday PM through Friday.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 30s with lows Wednesday night in the teens and 20s.  Highs on Thursday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Thursday night in the 20s.  Highs on Friday will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(December 5-10)

Above average temperatures are forecast during the long range with no major storm systems showing up that would affect the Northland from the 5th-10th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  6 PM this evening until 6 AM CST Wednesday

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Periods of wet snow gradually developing.  Sleet or drizzle is also possible closer to Lake Superior.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Tuesday…  Periods of wet snow.  Light rain and drizzle is also possible closer to Lake Superior.  Breezy.  High 33 to 36.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

.Tuesday night…  Light snow and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations of 3-6″ possible.  Low 25 to 30.  Wind becoming north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Snow showers or flurries possible early otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  High 32 to 37.

.Wednesday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 16 to 21.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 32 to 37.

.Thursday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  27
Low:   14

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:33 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim

Long range outlook for December – Warmer than normal with slightly below average snowfall in Duluth

/Issued 2:44 PM CST, Monday, November 30, 2015/

December 2015 temperature anomaly forecast per 00z CFSv2 model.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

No surprise here! Looks like another ‘mild’ month in Minnesota and Wisconsin with temperatures averaging 4-6 degrees above normal.

Orange, red and pink colors=Warmer than normal temperatures
White=Near normal temperatures

December 2015 precipitation anomaly forecast per 00z CFSv2 model.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com.

Near to slightly below average precipitation in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Yellow=Below normal precipitation
White=Near normal precipitation
Green=Above normal precipitation

Looking ahead to what we can expect in December in the Twin Ports:

First lets look at our averages during the month of December at Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  14.8 degrees
Snowfall:  17.7″
Precipitation:  1.21″

The trends for December are pointing toward slightly below average snowfall with around 14″ expected for the month.

Astronomical data for December:

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:33 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:53 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  4:22 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st:  4:29 PM CST

Pretty crazy that Duluth has only had 1 month in 2015 with a below average temperature.  Have to go back to last February to find a below average temperature month.

Here are the 2015 temperature departures:

January:  +2.5 degrees above normal
February:  -9.9 degrees below normal
March:  +4.7 degrees above normal

April:  +2.6 degrees above normal
May:  +0.3 degrees above normal
June:  +1.3 degrees above normal

July:  +3.4 degrees above normal
August:  +1.0 degree above normal
September:  +5.9 degrees above normal

October:  +3.1 degrees above normal
November:  Should finish around +8.0 degrees above normal

How did the CFSv2 model do for November?  Well lets take a look!

Looks pretty good to me.  Minnesota and Wisconsin had above average temperatures this month.

As for precipitation – The CFSv2 precip forecast for November looked good as Duluth was +0.69″ above normal going into today.

The trends for November had Duluth getting around 5″ of snow – So far this month we’ve had 4.2″.  Not bad!

Tim

November 30, 2015: 2 PM weather update – Snow gradually develops this evening; Mixed precip possible Tuesday below the hill in Duluth

/Issued 2:30 PM CST, Monday, November 30, 2015/

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 2 PM CST today.  Source, WSI.

Blue=Snow
Pink=Mixed precipitation
Green=Rain

Water vapor satellite image from 1:15 PM CST today, November 30, 2015.  Surface low was over Eastern Nebraska at mid afternoon with a large mid/upper level trough covering the Northern Rockies, Western High Plains and Northern Plains.  Short term storm track is the black line on the map.  Source, http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/recentwv.html

Leaving my snowfall accumulation map as is although I do have concerns that snow totals will end up lower than 4″ below the hill in Duluth and Superior and for other locations near the immediate Lake Superior shoreline.

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect this evening through early Wednesday morning for most of the Northland – More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

*Scattered snow or mixed showers will be possible until around 4-5 PM today in parts of Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin but no major travel problems through early this evening.

*Snow should push north out of Southern Minnesota late this afternoon, reaching the Duluth area between 7-10 PM this evening.

*A couple different waves of snow will then affect the Twin Ports overnight tonight into Tuesday morning with additional light snow persisting from late Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

*With Lake Superior water temperatures still around 40 degrees or so and with an east-northeast wind coming off the lake it’s quite possible we see the snow mix with or change to rain/drizzle from time to time on Tuesday in lower elevation areas near Lake Superior – This may reduce snowfall totals a bit, instead of 4-6″, possibly more like 2-3″.

Tim

November 29, 2015 Weather Report – Wet, sloppy snow event on the way; Winter weather advisory issued for most of the Northland; Future radar included in this post

/Issued 4:43 PM CST, Sunday, November 29, 2015/

Probability for snowfall totals of at least 4″ from 6 PM Monday through 6 PM Tuesday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Red=70% probability for at least 4″ of snow
Green=40% probability for at least 4″ of snow
Blue=10% probability for at least 4″ of snow

Water vapor satellite loop from today, November 29, 2015.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/  Still seeing a large upper level system spinning away across the Rockies – This mid/upper level feature will eventually move east/northeast into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Tuesday.

I updated my snowfall map a bit from earlier today, more changes are possible.

One thing I’m starting to become concerned about is a possible mixture or changeover from snow to drizzle/light rain on Tuesday in the green outlined area on the map.  Temperatures are going to be borderline for the precipitation to remain all snow especially close to Lake Superior during the day Tuesday.  It’s very possible we see the snow mix with or change to light rain or drizzle on Tuesday near Lake Superior and this could result in snowfall totals remaining around the 4″ mark near the immediate lakeshore.

Future radar from the 12z WRF-NMM model.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Steady snow should remain west/south of the Northland Monday morning and early afternoon.

Snow is expected to push north into areas south of Highway 2 by late Monday afternoon or early evening.

Snow should be falling over a good chunk of the Northland by Midnight tomorrow night.  Note:  Thinking a snow start time between 5 PM – 9 PM Monday in Duluth and Superior.

Snow should be falling in most of the Northland Tuesday morning.  Be prepared for a slower commute to work or school Tuesday morning.

The National Weather Service in Duluth has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for most of the Northland from Monday evening through Wednesday morning.  More information can be found at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Last week’s temperature departure map.  Source, Regional Climate Centers.  Still warmer than normal last week although the departures weren’t as significant as in previous weeks.  Last week finished around +2 degrees above normal in Duluth.

Last week’s precipitation departure map.  Source, Regional Climate Centers.  Very dry last week.  Precipitation totals generally less than 25% of normal in the Northland.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Monday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.




















Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location

November 22-28, 2015

High temperatures:

11/22:  26 F/-6 degrees below normal
11/23:  36 F/+5 degrees above normal
11/24:  37 F/+6 degrees above normal
11/25:  42 F/+12 degrees above normal
11/26:  34 F/+4 degrees above normal
11/27:  25 F/-4 degrees below normal
11/28:  36 F/+7 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

11/22:  11 F/-7 degrees below normal
11/23:  25 F/+7 degrees above normal
11/24:  26 F/+9 degrees above normal
11/25:  32 F/+15 degrees above normal
11/26:  16 F/Normal
11/27:  10 F/-6 degrees below normal
11/28:  13 F/-2 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  0.06″
Normal:  0.42″
Departure:  -0.36″ below normal

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  November 29, 2015

Another quiet weather day under partly to mostly sunny skies.  Southerly flow coming off Lake Superior resulted in an area of lake effect clouds along the North Shore and over the Arrowhead today.  Highs were in the 30s and winds were out of the south or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight (November 29)

One more quiet night under partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Low temperatures will be in the teens and 20s but the typical cold spots could drop into the single digits once again.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday and Monday night (November 30)

Increasing cloudiness on Monday with snow or a wintry mix of precipitation lifting north into portions of East Central Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin during Monday afternoon.  Highs tomorrow will be in the 30s with east winds at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts developing near Lake Superior.

Snow is forecast to lift north overspreading most if not all of the Northland Monday night with any mixed precipitation confined to parts of Northwest Wisconsin.  Low temperatures tomorrow night will be in the 20s and 30s with easterly winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

A strong mid/upper level low pressure system which is over the Central Rockies today will be moving east/northeast toward the Upper Midwest on Monday while a surface low develops over the Central Plains.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tuesday through Thursday (December 1-3)

Snow continues on Tuesday with a possible mixture of precipitation types in parts of Northwest Wisconsin as well as for locations close to Lake Superior.  Light snow and flurries will probably linger Tuesday night and Wednesday morning before dry weather returns Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

Low pressure at the surface and aloft will be lifting northeast through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Tuesday before exiting to the east on Wednesday.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s with lows Tuesday night in the 20s and 30s with teens possible in far Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s and 30s with lows Wednesday night in the teens and 20s.  Highs on Thursday will mainly be in the 30s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(December 4-9)

Looking at above average temperatures during the long range with no major storm systems the way it looks now.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY*
Timing:  6 PM Monday until 6 AM CST Wednesday

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Increasing cloudiness.  High 33 to 37.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday night…  Snow developing between 5 PM and 9 PM with snow overnight.  Breezy.  Low 30 to 33.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.  Areas of blowing snow possible late.

.Tuesday…  Snow.  Snow could mix with drizzle closer to Lake Superior.  Breezy.  High 33 to 35.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.  Areas of blowing snow possible.

.Tuesday night…  Light snow and flurries.  Total snowfall accumulations of 4-6″ possible.  Low 25 to 30.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.

.Wednesday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 16 to 21.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 32 to 37.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  28
Low:   14

Sunrise Monday:  7:31 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

November 29, 2015: Latest on the Monday-Tuesday wet snow event

/Issued 9:47 AM CST, Sunday, November 29, 2015/

Here’s what I’m thinking for snowfall accumulations from Monday PM-Tuesday PM.  Totals shown on the map could go up or down but as of this morning this is what I’m thinking for snowfall totals in the Northland.

Probability for at least 4″ snow accumulation valid from 6 AM Monday until 6 AM Tuesday.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Red=70% probability for at least 4″ of snow.
Green=40% probability for at least 4″ of snow.
Blue=10% probability for at least 4″ of snow.

No winter weather headlines yet in the Northland but a WINTER STORM WATCH continues for parts of Southern Minnesota including Minneapolis and St. Paul.  More information at this link:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

-Temperatures around the freezing mark will make this a wet and heavy snowfall, this is especially true near Lake Superior where temperatures may actually be a degree or two above freezing while it snows.

-A period of gusty east winds in the Twin Ports most likely Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Sustained wind speeds 10-20 mph with gusts possibly as high as 25 to 30 mph.  Areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility due to the combination of falling and blowing snow especially from late Monday night through Tuesday.

-Timing of when the snow begins is still a little uncertain but it appears that Monday evening the snow should get going as snow spreads south to north across the Northland.

-There is a chance for some precipitation prior to Monday evening, and if precipitation occurs during that time it could be in the form of a light wintry mix from East Central Minnesota to the Twin Ports east into Northwest Wisconsin.

-Stay tuned for more updates leading up to this snow event.

Tim