Monthly Archives: December 2015

/Issued 4:22 PM CST, Thursday, December 30, 2015/

Gusty west winds are possible in the Northland on Friday.  The map below shows forecasted wind speeds at 850mb valid for early Friday afternoon per 18z NAM.  Source, weather.cod.edu

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Thursday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*2756 heating degree days since July 1st; This is -907 below the average of 3663.  Last year thru December 29th 3425 heating degree days.  

Heating degree days definition:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heating_degree_day#Problems

2015 is coming to an end, lets take a look at some weather stats for this year at Duluth, Minnesota.

*5 months had above average precipitation – May, August, September, November and December.

*7 months had below average precipitation – January, February, March, April, June, July and October.

*4 consecutive months with below average precipitation (January-April)

*8 months with below average snowfall – January, February, March, April, May, September, October and November.

*1 month with above average snowfall – December.

Note:  June, July and August normal snowfall is 0.0″.

*11 months with an above average monthly temperature.

*1 month with a below average monthly temperature (February)

…More 2015 weather stats in the days ahead…

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  December 30, 2015

A broad mid/upper level trough covered the Upper Midwest today with high pressure to our southwest.  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies covered the area today.  Echoes have been showing up on radar since last night but most of this hasn’t been reaching the ground.  Highs today were in the teens and 20s with west, northwest or southwest winds under 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Thursday night (December 30-31)

A weak trough or two will drop southeast across the area through tomorrow night.  Mostly cloudy skies will likely persist although some areas of at least partial clearing are certainly possible from time to time.  Could be some flurries or light snow showers as well from tonight through Thursday night but no real accumulation to speak of.  Lows tonight ranging from the single digits to around 20 degrees.  Highs on Thursday in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday night in the single digits and teens.  Westerly winds tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Friday through Sunday (January 1-3)

Mainly dry this weekend.  High temperatures on Friday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Friday night in the single digits and teens.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s to lower 30s with lows Saturday night in the single digits to around 20 degrees.  Highs on Sunday will mainly be in the 20s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(January 4-9)

Above average temperatures are expected during the long range.  No major storms showing up that would affect the Northland from the 4th-9th.  Note:  No doubt about it were now in the quiet part of the cycling weather pattern.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  Low 11 to 16.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Clouds.  High 17 to 22.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 6 to 11.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  Breezy.  High 23 to 27.  Wind southwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 9 to 14.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 26 to 31.

.Saturday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 13 to 18.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  High 25 to 30.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  19
Low:    3

Sunrise Thursday:  7:53 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:30 PM CST

Tim

/Issued 4:19 PM CST, Tuesday, December 29, 2015/

It’s been an active month for tornadoes in the U.S. 67 preliminary tornado reports so far this December (Red dots on map) Source, Storm Prediction Center.

U.S. tornadoes daily count and running annual trend chart – Source, Storm Prediction Center.

*1249 tornadoes so far this year.  The average from 2005-2014 thru December 28th is 1375.

I forgot to include this map in yesterday’s post, so here ya go – This map shows where lightning strikes occurred during a 48-hour period ending on December 28, 2015.  Source, http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/america/index.php?bo_showmap=usa

Snowfall totals map for December 28-29, 2015.  Source, National Weather Service Chanhassen, Minnesota.

6-12″ snow totals from Fairmont and Mankato east to Red Wing down to Albert Lea and Rochester.  Twin Cities was pretty much the cutoff from 4-6″ snow totals to little or no snow, South Metro picked up several inches, North Metro not much at all.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Wednesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Tidbits:

*2nd warmest December thru the 28th at Duluth, Minnesota – Average temperature 27.3 degrees (+12.2 degrees above normal) Pretty good chance that will remain at the number 2 spot with just 2 days left to go.

*Warmest December on record at International Falls, Minnesota – Average temperature thru the 28th 23.5 degrees (+13.2 degrees above normal)  4 subzero low temperatures so far this month yet this December is still on pace to be the warmest on record, incredible!

*The preliminary tornado count from December 23rd-28th is about 55 with 6 killer tornadoes resulting in 23 fatalities.  Source, Dr. Greg Forbes; The Weather Channel.

Peak wind gusts from December 28-29, 2015
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Devils Island:  49 mph
Sky Harbor Airport:  47 mph
1 E of Duluth:  45 mph
1 N of Knife River:  42 mph
1 N of Port Wing:  41 mph
Duluth Airport:  40 mph
Bayfield:  38 mph
1 NNW of Superior:  38 mph
Superior Airport:  37 mph
Two Harbors:  37 mph
Ashland Airport:  36 mph
Cloquet:  36 mph
Silver Bay:  32 mph

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  December 29, 2015

Most of the Northland was under mostly cloudy skies today but there’s been some pockets of clearing in parts of Northern Minnesota.  Highs were in the teens and 20s with winds from the north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.  Surface map late this afternoon places low pressure of 1012mb over Southeast Ontario with high pressure to our west/northwest.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Wednesday night (December 29-30)

A broad upper level trough will settle into the Upper Midwest during this period while a few areas of high pressure will be centered to our north and to our west/southwest.

Areas of flurries and snow showers will be possible in parts of the Northland from tonight thru Wednesday evening but accumulations if any should remain under an inch, the exception to this could be along the South Shore of Lake Superior in Northwest Wisconsin where 1-3″ of snow could accumulate by Wednesday evening thanks to some lake effect/enhanced snow potential.

 Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens to around 20 degrees with single digits in Northern Minnesota.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Wednesday night in the single digits, teens and lower 20s.  North or northwest winds tonight at 10 to 15 mph shifting more to the west tomorrow and tomorrow night at 10 to 15 mph.  Mostly cloudy skies should continue into tomorrow night although some breaks in the clouds can’t be ruled out from time to time.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Thursday through Saturday (December 31-January 2)

Looking pretty quiet weather-wise as we end 2015 into the first few days of 2016.  Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the teens and 20s with lows Thursday night and Friday night in the single digits below to teens above zero.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 20s to lower 30s.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

(January 3-8)

Above average to near normal temperatures during the long range.  Chances for light snow or a mix of precipitation between the 5th-7th although this doesn’t look like a significant event at this time.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 13 to 18.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Flurries possible.  High 23 to 27.  Wind becoming west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 13 to 17.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 17 to 22.

.Thursday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 6 to 11.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 22 to 27.

.Friday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 9 to 14.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 26 to 31.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  19
Low:    3

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:53 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:29 PM CST

Tim

/Issued 4:49 PM CST, Monday, December 28, 2015/

500mb map from this morning per RAP model.  The big storm which has been over the Southern U.S. the past few days is lifting quickly toward the northeast now.  Additional energy/trough currently over the Northwest U.S. will slide east into the Upper Midwest into midweek and that trough will keep the weather a tad unsettled with spits of snow in the Northland into Wednesday.

Storm location late this afternoon, storm track forecast is the black line on the map.  Source, college of dupage.

For those that may have missed it – Here’s my updated snowfall accumulation map valid thru Tuesday afternoon.  

Winter storm warning (Pink) and Winter weather advisory (Purple) remain in effect into Tuesday in parts of Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin – Might see these headlines get cancelled by morning though will just have to wait and see.

Winter storm warning:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

Winter weather advisory:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Tuesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

December 26-28, 2015 storm summary
Source:  Weather Prediction Center

Selected snowfall totals:

New Mexico:

6 WSW of Bonito Lake:  41.0″
Cloudcroft:  30.0″

Texas:

Friona:  18.0″
Alpine:  12.0″
5.1 WSW of El Paso:  9.5″
Lubbock:  5.0″

Selected rainfall totals:

Arkansas:

Elm Springs:  10.12″
Bentonville:  8.25″

Illinois:

Alton:  8.28″
Collinsville:  7.50″
Pana:  6.02″

Kansas:

Bartlett:  4.90″
Oswego:  4.25″

Missouri:

Monett:  10.50″
7 SSW of Springfield:  10.0″
Rosebud:  9.01″
St. Louis Lambert Intl Airport:  6.27″

Oklahoma:

Checotah:  10.0″
Tahlequah:  10.0″
Tulsa:  6.09″

Texas:

Killen:  10.44″

Note:  50-70+ mph winds reported in 4 states – New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas.

Storm tidbits:
Source, @capitalweather; @USTornadoes; @NWSMemphis; @RickMitchellWX

-Nearly 400 river gauges are in flood stage across the Central and Eastern U.S. this afternoon.

-From Illinois to Texas, 30 gauges were in major flood stage.

-Near Chester, Illinois, the Mississippi River is forecast to crest at 49.8 feet which would set a new record for the location.  The previous record is 49.7 feet which was set during the great flood of 1993.

-The Illinois River near Tahleuqah, Oklahoma (Eastern part of the state) has already crested at over 30 feet, well above its previous record of 27.9 feet set in May of 1950.

-This month is now the deadliest December for tornadoes in 62 years in the US.

-3 confirmed EF-4 tornadoes this year.  First time two or more in December since 1967.

-The second long-track tornado (EF-4) from last Wednesday, December 23 has been determined to have a 73 mile path length.

-73 tornadoes in North Texas this year.  This ties with 1994 for the most tornadoes since 1950.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  December 28, 2015

Strong low pressure of 994mb was over Eastern Missouri late this afternoon with strong high pressure of 1044mb near Hudson Bay Canada.  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies covered the area today with some lake effect snow showers near Lake Superior.  Highs today were in the teens and 20s with east or northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight (December 28)

Low pressure will move from Eastern Missouri to Southern Lake Michigan tonight while strong high pressure remains over Ontario Province.  Some snow will gradually develop in Southern portions of Northwest Wisconsin while some flurries and light snow spreads into Eastern Minnesota and far Northwest Wisconsin.  The heaviest snowfall with tonight’s storm looks like it will stay south/southeast of the our area.

Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s with single digits in Northern Minnesota.  Winds will be out of the east or north at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph near Lake Superior.

Tuesday and Tuesday night (December 29)

Broad upper level troughing will setup across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday while low pressure weakens as it heads east/northeast out of Southern Lake Michigan with high pressure staying put to our north.  Light snow and flurries are possible in the Northland for tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Temperatures will be in the teens and 20s with north or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  High.

Wednesday through Friday (December 30-January 1)

Lingering chances for light snow and flurries on Wednesday as an upper level trough remains over the Upper Midwest.  Mainly dry Thursday and Friday with NW flow in place east of a developing upper level ridge which will be over the Northwest U.S.  Highs generally in the teens and 20s for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Low temperatures will be in the single digits and teens Wednesday night and Thursday night with subzero lows certainly possible in parts of the Northland.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(January 2-7)

Near or above average temperatures during the long range – No major precipitation events showing up in the models from the 2nd-7th.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

Event:  *WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY* for Superior
Timing:  Until Noon CST Tuesday.

.Tonight…  Windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.  Areas of blowing snow possible.

.Tuesday…  Breezy during the morning.  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  High 22 to 25.  Wind north at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts during the morning.

.Tuesday night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  Low 17 to 22.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries or snow showers possible.  High 22 to 25.  Total snowfall accumulations between tonight and Wednesday of around 1 to 2″ possible.

.Wednesday night…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 7 to 12.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

.Thursday night…  Partly cloudy.  Low 5 to 10.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  High 20 to 25.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  19
Low:    3

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:53 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:28 PM CST

Tim

/Issued 1:13 PM CST, Monday, December 28, 2015/

Visible satellite image from early this afternoon.  Strong low pressure of 994mb over Southeast Missouri will move NE through Tuesday (Storm track is the black line on the map)

Blue area represents where the greatest chance for greater than 6″ snow totals are likely to be thru Tuesday morning, some locales in Southeast Minnesota and from Southwest thru Northeast Wisconsin will probably end up with over 10-12″ of snow by Tuesday.

Good bust potential in the Twin Cities – probably won’t even get 6″ of snow unless you’re in the far Southern part of the Metro.

Forecast snowfall totals thru Tuesday afternoon.

Winter weather headlines map.  Source, Aerisweather.com

Purple=Winter weather advisory
Pink=Winter storm warning

More information at the links below.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Winter weather advisory:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Winter storm warning:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 1:00 PM CST today.  Source, WSI.

Blue=Snow
Pink=Ice/mixed precipitation
Green=Rain

Tim

/Issued 2:54 PM CST, Sunday, December 27, 2015/

Storm track forecast for tonight thru Tuesday.

Updated snowfall accumulation map – This is for the Monday thru Tuesday morning time frame.  Nudged the 5-10″ totals slightly more to the south compared to the map I made this morning, also dropped Duluth’s totals from 3-5″ to 1-3″ based on the new data I’ve seen this afternoon.

Note:  One thing that has to be watched however are the east-northeast winds coming off Lake Superior which may produce some lake enhanced snow in the Twin Ports late Monday night-Tuesday morning, just not confident that will get much help from Lake Superior which is why I lowered Duluth’s totals.

Additional snow is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday but accumulations with that event look to be in the 1-3″ range the way it looks now.

Winter Storm Watch remains in effect in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Monday night and Tuesday morning (Blue area on map)  Gale warning in effect for Western Lake Superior with an easterly gale event Monday afternoon thru Tuesday morning.  More information at the links below.

Winter storm watch:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

Gale warning:  http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mqt&wwa=gale%20warning

Surface map forecasts per NOAA and Weather Prediction Center.

Color legend:

Blue=Snow
Orange/Purple=Ice/Mixed precipitation
Green=Rain

Last week’s temperature departure map.  Source, Regional Climate Centers.  Well above average in the temperature department once again last week.

Last week’s precipitation departure map.  Source, Regional Climate Centers.  Another above average precipitation week in Duluth and Superior.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Monday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location

December 20-26, 2015

High temperatures:

12/20:  28 F/+7 degrees above normal
12/21:  27 F/+6 degrees above normal
12/22:  34 F/+14 degrees above normal
12/23:  34 F/+14 degrees above normal
12/24:  26 F/+6 degrees above normal
12/25:  27 F/+7 degrees above normal
12/26:  28 F/+8 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

12/20:  19 F/+13 degrees above normal
12/21:  20 F/+15 degrees above normal
12/22:  24 F/+19 degrees above normal
12/23:  26 F/+21 degrees above normal
12/24:  18 F/+14 degrees above normal
12/25:  14 F/+10 degrees above normal
12/26:  19 F/+15 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.56″
Normal:  0.27″
Departure:  +0.29″ above normal

Weather Tidbits:

-2nd warmest December on record at Duluth, Minnesota.  The average temperature for December 2015 thru the 26th was 28.4 degrees (+12.9 degrees above normal)  The warmest December on record occurred in 1877 with an average temperature of 32.7 degrees.

-The EF4 tornado at Garland, Texas on December 26th was the furthest west violent tornado on record for December.  This was also the first confirmed EF4+ tornado in the month of December since 2000.  Source, Twitter; USTORNADOES

-US December 2015 tornado deaths:  22 (2nd most on record since 1950)  The all-time record for December is 49 deaths set in 1953.  Source, USTORNADOES

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  December 27, 2015

Sunshine returned today! A colder and drier airmass behind Saturday’s snow event resulted in generally sunny or mostly sunny skies througout the Northland today.  High temperatures today were in the single digits and teens with wind chills ranging from around 10 below to the single digits above zero.  Winds today were out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Short Term Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight (December 27)

Clear to partly cloudy skies with lows in the single digits and teens below to above zero.  Light north or northwest winds will shift to the east during the night.  As the wind shifts to the east there will be a chance for lake effect snow showers and flurries by late tonight along the South Shore of Lake Superior west to the Twin Ports.  Strong high pressure will be centered to our north in Ontario Province while low pressure finally lifts north/northeast out of Southern Texas tonight.

Monday and Monday night (December 28)

A strong area of high pressure (1040+mb) will cover Central/Eastern Canada on Monday while low pressure heads northeast out of Eastern Oklahoma to Southeast Wisconsin/Southern Lake Michigan by early Tuesday morning.  Temperatures tomorrow and tomorrow night will be in the teens and 20s with east or northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Extended Forecast – Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tuesday through Thursday (December 29-31)

Additional chances for light snow with generally light accumulations will persist in most of the Northland on Tuesday and Wednesday as a broad upper level trough covers the Upper Midwest.  Note:  There is a possibility for moderate snowfall accumulations in one or two areas in the Northland between Tuesday evening and Wednesday but exactly where that would be is uncertain at this time.

Highs from Tuesday through Thursday are expected to be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday night in the teens with lows Wednesday night in the single digits and teens.

Long Range Forecast – Confidence:  High.

(January 1-6)

For the most part expecting near average temperatures during the long range although it’s certainly possible will have a day or two of above average temperatures and a day or two featuring below average temperatures.  No major storms are expected from the 1st-6th of January.

5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR

.Tonight…  Mostly clear with more clouds moving in late.  Flurries or snow showers possible after midnight.  Low 0 to 5.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming east late.

.Monday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Becoming breezy.  Flurries and snow showers possible.  High 20 to 25.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible by the afternoon.

.Monday night…  Windy.  Snow possible.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Tuesday…  Occasional light snow.  Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3″ possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Tuesday night…  Light snow possible.  Low 17 to 20.

.Wednesday…  Light snow or flurries possible.  High 20 to 25.

.Wednesday night…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  Low 5 to 10.

.Thursday…  Partly sunny.  High 15 to 20.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  20
Low:    3

Sunrise Monday:  7:53 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:27 PM CST

Tim