/Issued 2:54 PM CST, Sunday, December 27, 2015/
Storm track forecast for tonight thru Tuesday.
Updated snowfall accumulation map – This is for the Monday thru Tuesday morning time frame. Nudged the 5-10″ totals slightly more to the south compared to the map I made this morning, also dropped Duluth’s totals from 3-5″ to 1-3″ based on the new data I’ve seen this afternoon.
Note: One thing that has to be watched however are the east-northeast winds coming off Lake Superior which may produce some lake enhanced snow in the Twin Ports late Monday night-Tuesday morning, just not confident that will get much help from Lake Superior which is why I lowered Duluth’s totals.
Additional snow is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday but accumulations with that event look to be in the 1-3″ range the way it looks now.
Winter Storm Watch remains in effect in Eastern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for Monday night and Tuesday morning (Blue area on map) Gale warning in effect for Western Lake Superior with an easterly gale event Monday afternoon thru Tuesday morning. More information at the links below.
Winter storm watch: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mpx&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch
Gale warning: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mqt&wwa=gale%20warning
Surface map forecasts per NOAA and Weather Prediction Center.
Color legend:
Blue=Snow
Orange/Purple=Ice/Mixed precipitation
Green=Rain
Last week’s temperature departure map. Source, Regional Climate Centers. Well above average in the temperature department once again last week.
Last week’s precipitation departure map. Source, Regional Climate Centers. Another above average precipitation week in Duluth and Superior.
Tonight’s low temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Monday’s high temperature forecast. Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.
Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location
December 20-26, 2015
High temperatures:
12/20: 28 F/+7 degrees above normal
12/21: 27 F/+6 degrees above normal
12/22: 34 F/+14 degrees above normal
12/23: 34 F/+14 degrees above normal
12/24: 26 F/+6 degrees above normal
12/25: 27 F/+7 degrees above normal
12/26: 28 F/+8 degrees above normal
Low temperatures:
12/20: 19 F/+13 degrees above normal
12/21: 20 F/+15 degrees above normal
12/22: 24 F/+19 degrees above normal
12/23: 26 F/+21 degrees above normal
12/24: 18 F/+14 degrees above normal
12/25: 14 F/+10 degrees above normal
12/26: 19 F/+15 degrees above normal
Total precipitation: 0.56″
Normal: 0.27″
Departure: +0.29″ above normal
Weather Tidbits:
-2nd warmest December on record at Duluth, Minnesota. The average temperature for December 2015 thru the 26th was 28.4 degrees (+12.9 degrees above normal) The warmest December on record occurred in 1877 with an average temperature of 32.7 degrees.
-The EF4 tornado at Garland, Texas on December 26th was the furthest west violent tornado on record for December. This was also the first confirmed EF4+ tornado in the month of December since 2000. Source, Twitter; USTORNADOES
-US December 2015 tornado deaths: 22 (2nd most on record since 1950) The all-time record for December is 49 deaths set in 1953. Source, USTORNADOES
Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date: December 27, 2015
Sunshine returned today! A colder and drier airmass behind Saturday’s snow event resulted in generally sunny or mostly sunny skies througout the Northland today. High temperatures today were in the single digits and teens with wind chills ranging from around 10 below to the single digits above zero. Winds today were out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.
Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Short Term Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Tonight (December 27)
Clear to partly cloudy skies with lows in the single digits and teens below to above zero. Light north or northwest winds will shift to the east during the night. As the wind shifts to the east there will be a chance for lake effect snow showers and flurries by late tonight along the South Shore of Lake Superior west to the Twin Ports. Strong high pressure will be centered to our north in Ontario Province while low pressure finally lifts north/northeast out of Southern Texas tonight.
Monday and Monday night (December 28)
A strong area of high pressure (1040+mb) will cover Central/Eastern Canada on Monday while low pressure heads northeast out of Eastern Oklahoma to Southeast Wisconsin/Southern Lake Michigan by early Tuesday morning. Temperatures tomorrow and tomorrow night will be in the teens and 20s with east or northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.
Extended Forecast – Confidence: Medium to High.
Tuesday through Thursday (December 29-31)
Additional chances for light snow with generally light accumulations will persist in most of the Northland on Tuesday and Wednesday as a broad upper level trough covers the Upper Midwest. Note: There is a possibility for moderate snowfall accumulations in one or two areas in the Northland between Tuesday evening and Wednesday but exactly where that would be is uncertain at this time.
Highs from Tuesday through Thursday are expected to be in the teens and 20s with lows Tuesday night in the teens with lows Wednesday night in the single digits and teens.
Long Range Forecast – Confidence: High.
(January 1-6)
For the most part expecting near average temperatures during the long range although it’s certainly possible will have a day or two of above average temperatures and a day or two featuring below average temperatures. No major storms are expected from the 1st-6th of January.
5 DAY FORECAST FOR DULUTH AND SUPERIOR
.Tonight… Mostly clear with more clouds moving in late. Flurries or snow showers possible after midnight. Low 0 to 5. Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming east late.
.Monday… Considerable cloudiness. Becoming breezy. Flurries and snow showers possible. High 20 to 25. Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible by the afternoon.
.Monday night… Windy. Snow possible. Low 20 to 25. Wind east to northeast at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible.
.Tuesday… Occasional light snow. Total snowfall accumulations of 1-3″ possible. High 20 to 25.
.Tuesday night… Light snow possible. Low 17 to 20.
.Wednesday… Light snow or flurries possible. High 20 to 25.
.Wednesday night… Mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. Low 5 to 10.
.Thursday… Partly sunny. High 15 to 20.
Normal temperatures for Monday
High: 20
Low: 3
Sunrise Monday: 7:53 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:27 PM CST
Tim
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