May 31, 2016: Long range outlook for June included in this post. Rainfall, peak wind gusts and local storm reports from today

/Issued 6:15 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 31, 2016/

Preliminary climate stats for May 2016 at Duluth, Minnesota.

12-hour enhanced satellite loop ending at 4:37 PM CDT May 31, 2016.  Source, Unisysweather.

The darker blue colors (colder cloud tops) in central Minnesota early this morning and in western, central and northern Wisconsin this afternoon are areas where heavier rainfall occurred.

Here’s the June temperature forecast per CFSv2 model.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Note:  What we had in Duluth during the month of May should carry over into June — Will probably have a couple days of well above normal temperatures (Similar to May) but also expect stretches of below to near average temperatures.

June precipitation forecast per CFSv2 model.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Above average precipitation is forecast in all of the Northland.

Flash flood potential this evening across portions of Wisconsin (Pink outlined area on map)  Source, Weather Prediction Center; More information at the link below.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0277&yr=2016

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Wednesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

June climate averages at Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  60.1 degrees
Precipitation:  4.23″

Normal high on the 1st:  67 F
Normal high on the 30th:  75 F

Normal low on the 1st:  45 F
Normal low on the 30th:  53 F

Warmest June on record:  65.5 degrees in 1910
Coldest June on record:  53.0 degrees in 1917

Wettest June on record:  10.89″ in 1874
Driest June on record:  0.11″ in 1910

Astronomical data for the month of June:

Sunrise on the 1st:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  5:18 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  8:56 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  9:06 PM CDT

*Local Storm reports for May 31, 2016*
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*12:35 AM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25″ diameter.  Fort Ripley, MN (Crow Wing County)

*1:19 AM CDT:  HAIL.  0.25″ diameter.  Baxter, MN (Crow Wing County)

Peak wind gusts on May 31, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN (Airport)  45 mph
Sky Harbor, MN:  43 mph
1 N of Knife River, MN:  39 mph
French River, MN:  38 mph
3 WNW of Twig, MN:  37 mph
2 WSW of Lester Park, MN:  36 mph
International Falls, MN:  31 mph
Two Harbors, MN:  31 mph
The Bay of Grand Marais, MN:  31 mph
Cloquet, MN:  30 mph

Preliminary rainfall reports for May 31, 2016
Source:  MesoWest

International Falls, MN:  0.73″
Littlefork, MN:  0.89″
Bigfork, MN:  0.61″
Walker, MN:  0.58″
Longville, MN:  0.40″

Pine River, MN:  0.28″
Brainerd, MN:  1.38″
Aitkin, MN:  0.55″
Hill City, MN:  0.84″
McGregor, MN:  0.49″

Hinckley, MN:  0.15″
Moose Lake, MN:  0.29″
Cloquet, MN:  0.21″
Duluth, MN:  0.27″
Saginaw, MN:  0.22″

Two Harbors, MN:  0.19″
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.67″
Hibbing, MN:  0.38″
Skibo, MN:  0.17″
Silver Bay, MN:  0.15″

Orr, MN:  0.63″
Ely, MN:  0.13″
Isabella, MN:  0.08″
Grand Marais, MN:  0.12″
Superior, WI:  0.22″

Glidden, WI:  0.85″
Clam Lake, WI:  0.33″
Siren, WI:  0.07″
Minong, WI:  0.04″
Ashland, WI:  0.28″
Washburn, WI:  0.13″
Superior, WI:  0.22″

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 31, 2016

A miserable day near Lake Superior with strong east winds in the 15-30 mph range with gusts over 40 mph along with temperatures only in the 40s, but when combined with the strong winds the feels like temperatures were in the low to mid 30s on this final day of May!

An area of low pressure was over central North Dakota late this afternoon with a warm front from eastern Minnesota to central Wisconsin with a cold front running from northwest Minnesota to southeast Minnesota — An area of heavier rain developed early this morning in parts of central into north central Minnesota with stronger thunderstorms as well in parts of east central Minnesota with one severe warned storm around the Brainerd area early this morning.

A new batch of heavy rain and thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon in eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin, generally along and east of a line from Shell Lake to Ashland with some of the heaviest rainfall rates occurring from Winter and Loretta northeast to Glidden per radar data.

Elsewhere there’s also been some rain at times today although amounts have been quite a bit lighter compared to areas to the west and east.

High temperatures today away from Lake Superior were in the 50s in northern Minnesota with 70s in the Brainerd Lakes area as well as in southern parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Winds today were out of the south or east at 10 to 20 mph with stronger winds near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of northwest Wisconsin this evening with flash flooding possible especially around the Hayward Lakes area.  Scattered showers are possible over the remainder of the Northland tonight but the greatest threat for excessive rains will be in southern/eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin.

An area of low pressure will move toward far northwest Minnesota by daybreak while a warm front and cold front lift north/east through the Northland.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior where fog and drizzle will persist tonight.  Winds will be out of the east, south or west at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday:  Low pressure will move east through southern Ontario and to the north of Lake Superior.  Cold temperatures aloft, some warming near the surface combined with an upper low/trough moving overhead will lead to a scattered shower threat in most of the Northland on Wednesday with isolated thunderstorms also possible during the afternoon hours.  Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with near 70 degree temperatures possible in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s.  Winds tomorrow will be out of the south or southwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Winds tomorrow night out of the west at 10 to 20 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Thursday looks dry with highs in the 60s, maybe a 70 degree temperature in southern parts of the Northland.  Rain chances return on Friday and will continue through the upcoming weekend as low pressure drops southeast into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region.

Normal temperatures for June 1st at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  67 degrees
Low:  45 degrees

Sunrise on Wednesday:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset on Wednesday:   8:56 PM CDT

Tim

May 30, 2016 Weather Report: Rain on the way; Strong east winds/much colder temperatures in Duluth on Tuesday

/Issued 6:10 PM CDT, Monday, May 30, 2016/

Total rainfall forecast valid through Tuesday night per 12z WRF-NMM.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Tuesday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 30, 2016

The Memorial Day holiday weekend ended on a nice note although clouds and some showers have developed this afternoon in parts of the Northland generally for areas along and south of Highway 2.  High temperatures today were in the 70s to lower 80s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  Winds were out of the west, south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight:  A frontal boundary over northern Minnesota late this afternoon will settle a little bit to the south tonight while low pressure remains over the northern Plains.  Southerly flow ahead of this system will allow moisture to flow north into the Upper Midwest tonight which will help to generate showers and isolated thunderstorms.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s with lower 60s in far southern-western parts of the Northland.  Winds will shift to the south or east at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts around Lake Superior.

Tuesday:  Cold and damp near Lake Superior with highs only in the 40s and 50s along with strong east winds in the 15-30 mph range.  For areas away from Lake Superior expect highs to top out in the 50s and 60s with 70s in far southern portions of the area.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with lower 60s in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

Low pressure along with a warm front and cold front will head into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday which will cause occasional rain and isolated thunderstorms to develop across the Northland — PWATS ranging from 1.00-1.50″+ will result in locally heavy downpours.

 Not much of a threat for severe thunderstorms tomorrow with mostly weak instability in place although if an isolated stronger thunderstorm were to develop it would likely be over northwest Wisconsin and or east central Minnesota.

…Extended Forecast…

Confidence:  High.

A few lingering showers will be possible on Wednesday as a surface and upper level area of low pressure continue to affect the Northland’s — This system exits to the east on Thursday which should result in mainly dry weather in our area.

Rain chances return Friday, Saturday and Sunday as the flow aloft shifts more out of the NW which should allow for a couple of disturbances to drop south/southeast into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region, this will cause scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to develop late this week and during the upcoming weekend.  Not a total washout over the weekend but scattered showers can’t be ruled out.

Daytime highs are expected to be in the 60s and possibly a few 70s from Wednesday through Sunday with cooler temperatures at times near Lake Superior especially on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  67
Low:  45

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:55 PM CDT

Tim

May 29, 2016 Weather Report

/Issued 7:49 PM CDT, Sunday, May 29, 2016/

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Monday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Last week’s temperature departure map.  Above average temperatures in most of Minnesota and Wisconsin last week with the exception being in far northwest Wisconsin and in the Twin Ports where near to below average temperatures occurred.

Last week’s precipitation departure map.  Even with rain falling on 5 out of the past 6 days at Duluth, the entire week finished below average by around 0.10″.  Above average precipitation totals in most of northwest Wisconsin with below average rainfall totals last week in northern Minnesota.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location) 

May 22-28, 2016

High temperatures:

5/22:  80 F/+16 degrees above normal
5/23:  79 F/+15 degrees above normal
5/24:  76 F/+11 degrees above normal
5/25:  53 F/-12 degrees below normal
5/26:  69 F/+4 degrees above normal
5/27:  63 F/-2 degrees below normal
5/28:  64 F/-2 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

5/22:  46 F/+4 degrees above normal
5/23:  53 F/+10 degrees above normal
5/24:  50 F/+7 degrees above normal
5/25:  46 F/+3 degrees above normal
5/26:  43 F/Normal
5/27:  49 F/+5 degrees above normal
5/28:  47 F/+3 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.68″
Normal:  0.76″
Departure:  -0.08″ below normal

Rainfall report for May 28-29, 2016 ending at 7 AM on the 29th.
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

Duluth, MN:  0.10″
International Falls, MN:  0.18″
Hibbing, MN:  0.20″
Ashland, WI:  0.14″
Hayward, WI:  0.09″
7 NW of Brainerd, MN:  0.12″
25 E of Ely, MN:  0.63″
Cook, MN:  0.31″
Cotton, MN:  0.40″
Embarrass, MN:  0.27″
10 W of Gunflint Lake, MN:  1.02″
Kabetogama, MN:  0.15″
3 E of Orr, MN:  0.22″
2 S of Tower, MN:  0.34″
4 W of Clam Lake, WI:  1.23″

Filtered storm reports map for May 27, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00 inch or greater in diameter)

*Tornadoes in far western Minnesota and southern Wisconsin on Friday, May 27, 2016*

Source:  Storm Prediction Center

*2:10 PM CDT:  TORNADO.  4 E of Brooks, MN (Red Lake County)

*2:55 PM CDT:  TORNADO.  Sabin, MN (Clay County)

*5:35 PM CDT:  TORNADO.  Brandon, WI (Fond Du Lac County)  Note:  The NWS gave this tornado an EF1 rating with maximum wind speeds of 86-110 mph.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota & NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 29, 2016

An upper level low pressure system is moved east/northeast and out of the Northland this afternoon but right on its heels was an upper level disturbance which dropped southeast into the Upper Midwest. Cold air aloft combined with daytime heating helped to develop spotty showers in our area today with somewhat steadier rainfall occurring in extreme northeast Minnesota closer to the center of the upper low.  High temperatures today were in the 60s with 70s south of Highway 2 thanks to more sunshine compared to areas farther north.  Winds today were out of the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota & NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight:  Any leftover spotty showers will end by 9 PM.  Dry overnight with patchy fog.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds out of the west or northwest will turn more out of the southwest later in the night, wind speeds generally in the 5 to 15 mph range.

Memorial Day:  Nice! A weak boundary will be over northern Minnesota on Monday and there is a chance that a few spotty showers will develop Monday afternoon mainly over northern Minnesota.  Mostly sunny skies but some cumulus clouds will likely develop during the late morning and afternoon hours.  Highs are forecast to be in the 70s to lower 80s with west or southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Changes take place Monday night as moisture surges north out ahead of the next area of low pressure which moves east out of the northern Plains — Showers and a few thunderstorms should overspread the Northland from southwest to northeast Monday night with lows in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior.  Winds will shift to an easterly direction tomorrow night at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts around Lake Superior.

…Looking ahead…

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Occasional rain and possibly a few thunderstorms across the Northland on Tuesday as an area of low pressure, warm front and cold front move through the Upper Midwest.  Gusty east winds and probably some fog and drizzle around Lake Superior on Tuesday with highs only in the 40s.  Inland areas will have highs in the 50s and 60s with 70s possible in far southern parts of the area.

A risk for scattered showers will continue on Wednesday as low pressure at the surface and aloft continue to move across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 60s with 70s possible in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Normal temperatures for May 30th at Duluth

High:  66
Low:   44

Sunrise Monday:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:54 PM CDT

Tim

May 27, 2016: Shi**y weather continues Saturday; 70s Sunday; near 80 on Memorial Day. Rainfall reports from today included in this post

/Issued 5:29 PM CDT, Friday, May 27, 2016/

Upper Midwest radar loop ending at 5 PM CDT, May 27, 2016.  Source, WSI.

A steady light rainfall in Duluth and Superior late this afternoon should decrease to scattered showers after 7 PM.  Fog and drizzle will also linger in the Twin Ports through the night.

Low temperature forecast for tonight.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

High temperature forecast for Saturday.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Preliminary rainfall totals for May 27, 2016 ending at around 5 PM
Source:  MesoWest

Aitkin, MN:  0.57″
Brainerd, MN:  0.28″
Longville, MN:  0.33″
Hill City, MN:  0.52″
Pine River, MN:  0.12″

Grand Rapids, MN:  0.38″
McGregor, MN:  0.32″
Moose Lake, MN:  0.20″
Hinckley, MN:  0.19″
Cloquet, MN:  0.15″

Saginaw, MN:  0.09″
Hibbing, MN:  0.26″
Skibo, MN:  0.13″
Orr, MN:  0.07″
Cook, MN:  0.08″

Isabella, MN:  0.05″
Grand Marais, MN:  0.04″
Grand Portage, MN:  0.05″
Duluth, MN:  0.12″
Superior, WI:  0.09″

Minong, WI:  0.04″
Ashland, WI:  0.03″
Hayward, WI:  0.04″
Phillips, WI:  0.02″

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 27, 2016

A wet start to the holiday weekend.  A frontal boundary was draped from northeast Iowa to central Wisconsin with another boundary off to our north.  Near Lake Superior it was another foggy and misty day with temperatures in the 40s and 50s along with an east wind in the 10 to 20 mph range.  The remainder of the Northland had generally mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s with an east or northeast wind at 5 to 15 mph.  Plenty of moisture has been streaming north into our area today with PWATS in the 1.20-1.50″ this afternoon — Rain has been widespread over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight:  Fog, rain and drizzle.  Low pressure should move into Iowa tonight with a warm front extending from central Iowa to north central Wisconsin — Occasional rain will persist over our area tonight with fog and drizzle also expected with dense fog possible mainly near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s around Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south, north or east at 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts near Lake Superior.

Saturday:  An area of low pressure is forecast to track northeast out of central Iowa tomorrow with a warm front and cold front moving SW-NE through the Northland.  Rain is still possible on Saturday but it should be more scattered in coverage compared to the widespread rain we had on Friday.  A few thunderstorms are also possible tomorrow mainly over northwest Wisconsin.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.  Lows will be in the 50s.  Winds tomorrow out of the south, north or east at 5 to 15 mph.  Winds tomorrow night gradually shifting to the west or northwest.

…Looking ahead…

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Low pressure will finally exit to the northeast on Sunday but lingering moisture combined with some daytime heating could lead to a few showers around parts of the Northland Sunday afternoon and evening.  Highs on Sunday should get into the 70s with a west or northwest wind so these warmer temperatures should also make it to locations that are near Lake Superior.

Memorial Day looks nice at the moment with daytime highs in the 70s, possibly even the low 80s for some of us.

Rain chances return on Tuesday and Wednesday May 31-June 1.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  66
Low:   44

Sunrise Saturday:  5:20 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   8:52 PM CDT

Tim

May 26, 2016: Fog, drizzle with more rain moving in on Friday (Future radar in this post)

/Issued 5:06 PM CDT, Thursday, May 26, 2016/

24-hour rainfall total map ending the morning of May 26, 2016.  Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center; National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota; MesoWest

Text reports below

Sarona, WI:  1.49″
7 WNW of Minong, WI:  0.86″
Hayward, WI:  1.47″
5 WSW of Spirit, WI:  1.13″
1 N of Park Falls, WI:  1.01″

1 WSW of Saxon, WI:  1.75″
1 S of Hawthorne, WI:  0.76″
3 ENE of South Range, WI:  0.56″
6 NE of Hertel, WI:  1.68″
Danbury, WI:  1.22″

3 W of Clam Lake, WI:  2.00″
3 E of Namekagon, WI:  1.95″
11 SSE of Brule, WI:  1.39″
Washburn, WI:  0.69″
Glidden, WI:  1.33″

Ashland, WI:  1.12″
6 ESE of Cloverdale, MN:  0.80″
Duluth, MN:  0.17″
International Falls, MN:  0.17″
Brainerd, MN:  0.18″

Hurley, WI:  1.33″
Park Falls, WI:  1.13″
Superior, WI:  0.30″
Two Harbors, MN:  0.30″
Silver Bay, MN:  0.22″
Grand Marais, MN:  0.05″

Note:  Lots of ups and downs in the temperature department this month – In the end May 2016 will finish above average for number of 80 and 90 degree days, and should finish slightly above average in the number of 70 degree days.

Pattern change still looks likely by the end of next week as the current southwest flow aloft switches to northwest flow aloft after June 1st.  Source, Weather Prediction Center; 500mb forecast valid for Thursday, June 2, 2016.

A scattered frost threat is possible in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin sometime between June 3rd-5th.

Filtered storm reports map for May 25, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Damaging wind reports (58 mph or stronger)
Green dots=Large hail reports (1.00 inch or greater in diameter)

**3:10 PM CDT, 5/25/16:  TORNADO.  1 SSW of Villard, MN (Pope County)  Boats flipped, shed damaged and shingles off roofs near Amelia Lake.

Future radar for Friday from the 18z 4km NAM; Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Note:  By far not a slam dunk forecast for the timing of Friday’s rain and where the rain falls but here’s one models take on how things could play out for Friday.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  May 26, 2016

An area of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall moved northeast through parts of northwest Wisconsin this morning while fog, low clouds and drizzle lingered around Lake Superior.  Changes took place in most of the Northland this afternoon as skies cleared out a bit allowing temperatures to warm into the 70s with a few locations making it to around 80.  Much cooler temperatures in the 50s prevailed though near Lake Superior where areas of low clouds and fog continued as of late this afternoon.  Surface map at 3 PM had low pressure over southern Manitoba Province with a cold front heading east out of central and eastern Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium to High.

Tonight:  Low pressure remains to our north while the cold front over the Northland late this afternoon washes out during the night.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible this evening away from Lake Superior with more showers possibly moving into southern sections of the Northland after Midnight.  Low temperatures will be in the 50s with 40s near Lake Superior where areas of dense fog and drizzle will persist tonight.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday:  Low pressure along with a warm front moves north/northeast out of the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest — The warm front is forecast to extend from south central Minnesota to north central Wisconsin.  Rain and a few thunderstorms will be common tomorrow across most of the Northland with some heavier rainfall possible at times mainly in eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin.  Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south, east or north at 10 to 15 mph.

…Looking ahead…

Confidence:  Low to Medium.

Occasional showers are possible on Saturday as an area of low pressure remains over the Upper Midwest.

Model differences are large for Sunday with the NAM keeping rain over the Northland along with cool temperatures while the GFS and EUROPEAN models are quite a bit drier and also a lot warmer!  For now just have to watch the model trends, just not real sure yet which solution is correct.

Memorial Day might end up dry with temperatures in the 70s in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Rain chances increase for Tuesday-Wednesday, May 31-June 1.


Normal temperatures for May 27th at Duluth, Minnesota

High:  65
Low:  44

Sunrise Friday:  5:21 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:51 PM CDT

Tim