Preliminary stats for the Summer of 2016. Outlook for August and a look back at July

/Issued 10:35 AM CDT, Sunday, July 31, 2016/

CFS model temperature anomaly forecast for August 2016.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Yellow, orange and red colors=Above average temperatures
Blue=Below average temperatures
White=Near normal temperatures

Note:  I think there’s a decent chance that August will end up being pretty similar to June and July around here — Occasional storms, some warmth and some shots of cooler temperatures.

August 2016 precipitation anomaly forecast.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Green=Above average precipitation
Yellow=Below average precipitation
White=Near normal precipitation

Preliminary storm reports map for July 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Minnesota:

Red dots=Tornadoes (14)
Green dots=Hail (41)
Blue dots=Wind (199)

Total:  254 reports of severe weather in Minnesota during July 2016.

Preliminary storm reports map for July 20216.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Wisconsin:

Red dots=Tornadoes (3)
Green dots=Hail (11)
Blue dots=Wind (126)

Total:  140 reports of severe weather in Wisconsin during July 2016.

August averages for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Temperature:  64.4 degrees
Precipitation:  3.70″

Average number of days at or above 70 F:  23
Average number of days at or above 80 F:  7

Warmest August:  70.2 degrees set in 1930
Coldest August:  57.5 degrees set in 1912

Wettest August:  10.31″ set in 1972
Driest August:  0.29″ set in 1930

Astronomical data:

Sunrise on the 1st:  5:49 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st:  6:27 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  8:39 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st:  7:51 PM CDT

*Preliminary climate stats for July 2016*

Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  67.1 degrees
Departure:  +1.4 degrees warmer than normal

Number of days at or above 70 F:  30 days
Departure:  +5 above normal

Number of days at or above 80 F:  10 days
Departure:  -1 below normal

Number of days at or above 90 F:  1
Departure:  +1 above normal

Rainfall total:  4.39″
Departure:  +0.54″ above normal

*Preliminary climate stats for Meteorological Summer 2016*

Note:  Meteorological summer is the period from June 1 – August 31.

Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature and departure from normal:

June:  61.5 degrees (+1.4 degrees warmer than normal)
July:  67.1 degrees (+1.4 degrees warmer than normal)

Rainfall total:  8.85″
Departure:  +0.89″ above normal

Note:  ~3″ of rain is needed in August to get to the average Summer rainfall total which is 11.78″.

Going into the final month of summer — Duluth has had 48 days at or above 70 degrees and 17 days at or above 80 degrees.  Note:  The average from June 1 – July 31 is 42 days at or above 70 degrees and 16 days at or above 80 degrees.

Note:  The average number of days at or above 70 degrees for an entire Summer is 65 days and 23 days at or above 80 degrees.

Tim

July 30, 2016: Mild temperatures; Isolated showers and possibly a t-storm tonight and Sunday

/Issued 6:42 PM CDT, Saturday, July 30, 2016/

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Sunday:  5:48 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:  8:41 PM CDT

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Sunday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 30, 2016

A mix of sun and clouds over the Northland today with a few pop up showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring in two areas — The first was in far northern Minnesota with the second area concentrating on east central Minnesota/far northwest Wisconsin (Some of that activity may have developed near lake breeze boundaries today)  No real organization to these storms as winds aloft were very weak, but there was enough instability and moisture to get these spotty storms going today with brief heavy downpours being the main hazard.  High temperatures today were in the 70s to around 80 degrees with late afternoon dew points generally in the 50s to lower 60s.  Winds were mainly out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight (July 30)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 50s to lower 60s, maybe a few 40s in the typical cold spots.  Winds will remain out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.  Note:  The computer models are showing the development of spotty showers and possibly a thunderstorm through the night with most of this activity occurring in eastern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin–There’s no real boundary to focus on tonight, and usually in the type of pattern were currently in, most of the spotty showers will occur with the heating of the day (afternoon-early evening hours) Will see what happens tonight.

Sunday (July 31)

Confidence:  Medium to High.

The month of July will end on a mild note as high temperatures reach the 70s and lower 80s with lows Sunday night in the 50s and 60s.  High pressure will remain over the central/eastern Great Lakes to close out the weekend.  Moisture, some instability plus daytime heating will probably lead to a few spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms once again over parts of the Northland Sunday (Similar to what happened today, Saturday)  Any convection that manages to develop should be isolated and brief with no real organization to these storms as winds aloft remain weak but there will be enough instability and moisture once again to possibly help trigger a few storms with brief heavy downpours possible.

Extended Forecast

Confidence:  Medium.

A cold front is forecast to move southeast into the Northland Monday night and Tuesday — Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as this front approaches.  High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s on Monday and Tuesday with 60s and 70s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Tim

July 28, 2016: 50s and a few 40s around the Northland tonight; 70s with a mix of sun/clouds for Friday

/Issued 8:13 PM CDT, Thursday, July 28, 2016/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Friday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 28, 2016

A pleasant late July day with highs ranging from the mid to upper 60s close to Lake Superior to the 70s away from the lake.  Sky conditions varied between mostly cloudy and mostly sunny and winds were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight through Friday night (July 28-29)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Patchy fog is possible late tonight into early Friday morning.  Lows tonight and Friday night in the 50s with 40s in the typical cold spots.  Highs on Friday in the 70s to around 80 degrees with 60s closer to Lake Superior.  There is a chance for a few spotty showers Friday afternoon-evening for locations inland from Lake Superior but these are low rain chances, and if any showers do develop they will be brief and isolated.  Winds through Friday night will be out of the east or southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight – Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible late.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday – Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75 with 60s closer to Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Friday:  5:46 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:43 PM CDT

Tim

July 27, 2016: Rainfall and storm reports in this post. Patchy fog late tonight-Thursday morning; 70s Thursday (Cooler near Lake Superior)

/Issued 5:50 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 27, 2016/

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Thursday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Local Storm Reports
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota

*5:00 AM (July 26)  THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE.  5 N of Greenwood Lake, MN (Lake County)  Multiple trees snapped near base.

*11:40 PM (July 26)  HAIL.  0.25 inch diameter.  Park Falls, WI (Price County)

*7:29 PM (July 26)  HAIL.  0.25 inch diameter.  1 ESE of Nashwauk, MN (Itasca County)

*6:39 PM (July 26)  FUNNEL CLOUD.  Pine Center, MN (Crow Wing County)  Several funnel clouds developed and dissipated over the course of several minutes.

*6:18 PM (July 26)  HAIL.  0.88 inch diameter.  2 N of Mercer, WI (Iron County)  Approximately 5 minutes worth of hail.  Largest hail size a little less than an inch.

Power outage updates for July 27, 2016
Source:  Twitter

@mnpower

*ETR is end of today for remaining Duluth n’hoods w/o power. Call 800.228.4966 if you do not have power and n’bors do

*Most customers will have power restored tonight. The latest progress report can be found at .

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 27, 2016

A much cooler day over most of the Northland with highs today in the 60s around Lake Superior, east central Minnesota and in most of northwest Wisconsin — There was some sun this afternoon in parts of north central Minnesota which resulted in high temperatures warming into the 70s.  Winds today were out of the north or east at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25-30 mph occurring near Lake Superior.

Showers and thunderstorms have been occurring most of the day in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin while showers and thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota diminished during the afternoon.  The storms today have produced torrential rain and cloud to ground lightning but no severe weather has been reported today.

This precipitation today was the result of a strong disturbance which moved east/southeast across the Upper Midwest in conjunction with a slow moving cold front which as of late afternoon extended from southwest to eastern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  High.

Tonight (July 27)

High pressure builds south/east out of Manitoba Province while the cold front in eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin gets a nice shove to the south into Iowa and northern Illinois by daybreak.  Showers and thunderstorms in northwest Wisconsin will slowly end from west to east this evening…Locally heavy rain will continue especially around the Hayward Lakes area but severe thunderstorms are not expected.  Isolated showers could also develop mainly this evening in parts of north central Minnesota.

Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies can be expected tonight with patchy fog possible late.  Lows will be in the 50s to around 60 degrees with 40s possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Thursday (July 28)

Confidence:  High.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Isolated showers possible mainly in western-southern areas.  Highs are forecast to be in the 70s with 60s near Lake Superior and possibly in southern portions of northwest Wisconsin.  Lows Thursday night will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s even possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 10 to 15 mph.

Extended Forecast

Confidence:  High.

Looks pretty nice Friday through Sunday with daytime highs in the 70s to around 80 degrees with cooler temperatures closer to Lake Superior.  Can’t rule out a few spotty showers or isolated thunderstorms Friday, Saturday or Sunday but no widespread rains are expected.

Rainfall reports for July 26-27, 2016
Source:  mesowest

Note:  Rainfall totals through around 5 PM today.

Hill City, MN:  0.92″
Longville, MN:  0.90″
Hayward, WI:  0.74″
Aitkin, MN:  0.64″
Isabella, MN:  0.61″

Phillips, WI:  0.54″
Walker, MN:  0.47″
Eveleth-Virginia, MN:  0.46″
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.38″
Brainerd, MN:  0.29″

McGregor, MN:  0.28″
Two Harbors, MN:  0.22″
Superior, WI:  0.18″
Silver Bay, MN:  0.18″
Pine River, MN:  0.18″

Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.15″
Cook, MN:  0.15″
Ely, MN:  0.14″
Orr, MN:  0.12″
Moose Lake, MN:  0.12″

Cloquet, MN:  0.08″
Saginaw, MN:  0.07″
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.03″

Tim

July 26, 2016: Cooler temperatures around Lake Superior the next few days (East wind) Scattered showers/t-storms through Wednesday

/Issued 5:46 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 26, 2016/

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:43 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:  8:46 PM CDT

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Wednesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, National Weather Service Duluth, Minnesota.

Weather Summary for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin
Date:  July 26, 2016

Warm and muggy conditions in the Northland today as high temperatures topped out in the 80s with dew points in the 60s with even a few locations in northwest Wisconsin and east central Minnesota up around 70 degrees this afternoon.  Winds were out of the north, west or south at 5 to 15 mph.  Late this afternoon a cold front extended from west central into northeast Minnesota.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been developing near this boundary this afternoon but these storms have not been able to hold together very long before they fall apart.

Forecast Discussion for NE Minnesota and NW Wisconsin

Confidence:  Medium.

Tonight (July 26)

A cold front in northeast Minnesota late this afternoon will move slowly south/east tonight while high pressure builds south over Manitoba Province.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight mainly near and south of Highway 2, affecting east central Minnesota and most of northwest Wisconsin.  It is quite unstable late this afternoon with mesoanalysis showing CAPE ranging from 1500-3000 j/kg along with lifted indices of -3 to -8 degrees Celsius.  Winds aloft are quite weak though, and there isn’t much of a low level jet either so this could be part of the reason why storms have had a tough time developing/sustaining themselves this afternoon despite the favorable amount of instability and moisture that is available for storms.  The amount of instability will diminish during the night which is typical after sunset but there should still be enough for continued scattered thunderstorm coverage through the night, again mainly affecting east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Locally heavy rain and cloud to ground lightning will be the main hazards from thunderstorms tonight with a risk for hail and strong winds this evening south of Highway 2.

Lows will be in the 60s with 50s in northern Minnesota.  Winds will shift to the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Wednesday (July 27)

Confidence:  Medium.

Breezy and cooler around Lake Superior as east winds increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph with highs around 70 degrees.  Inland locations will have highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

Occasional showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible in parts of the Northland on Wednesday with drier conditions returning from north to south for Wednesday night.

Mostly cloudy skies tomorrow with winds out of the north or east at 10 to 15 mph.  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy tomorrow night with winds out of the east or northeast at 5 to 15 mph, low temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Looking ahead

Confidence:  High.

High pressure passing north of our area late this week should result in mainly dry weather across the Northland for Thursday and Friday.  High temperatures are expected to be in the 70s to around 80 degrees with cooler temperatures around Lake Superior as northeast winds continue late this week.

Rainfall reports for July 26, 2016
Source:  Mesowest

Ely, MN:  0.97″
Orr, MN:  0.42″
Longville, MN:  0.30″
Isabella, MN:  0.30″
Hill City, MN:  0.21″
Cook, MN:  0.08″
Grand Marais, MN:  0.07″

Tim