September 2015 tied for 4th warmest and was the 5th wettest on record at Duluth, what will this September bring? (Outlook in this post) Silver 1000 forecast – No rain!

/Issued 5:15 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 31, 2016/

Source, TropicalTidbits.com; CFS model

Orange colors=Warmer than normal temperatures
Blue colors=Cooler than normal temperatures
White=Near average temperatures

Green=Above average precipitation
Yellow=Below average precipitation
White=Near average precipitation

Note:  I don’t think will have a top 5 warmest September like last year in Duluth but overall expect slightly warmer than normal temperatures in September.  Yes will have some shots of cooler temperatures as well, especially toward the middle and the end of the month but nothing unusual about that as we are now making that transition out of summer and into fall.  I’m pretty sure will have a few more thunderstorms as well during the month of September.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.

Thursday’s high temperature forecast.


September climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Temperature:  55.6 degrees
Precipitation:  4.11″
Snowfall:  0.1″

Warmest September on record:  62.6 degrees in 1897
Coldest September on record:  47.8 degrees in 1974

Wettest September on record:  11.52″ in 1881
Driest September on record:  0.19″ in 1952

Snowiest September on record:  2.4″ in 1991

Normal high temperature on the 1st:  71 degrees
Normal high temperature on the 30th:  59 degrees

Normal low temperature on the 1st:  52 degrees
Normal low temperature on the 30th:  40 degrees

Astronomical data for September:

Sunrise on the 1st:  6:29 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  7:06 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  7:47 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  6:51 PM CDT

September 2015 climate stats:

Average temperature:  61.5 degrees (Tied for 4th warmest September on record)
Departure:  +5.9 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  6.81″
Departure:  +2.70″ above normal

18 days with a high temperature of at least 70 F (Average is 10 days)
3 days with a high temperature of at least 80 F (Average is 2 days)

5 thunderstorm days

Note:  Most of the Northland typically sees their first freeze of the season during the month of September.  In northern Minnesota, this usually happens between September 11-20 while in Duluth, all of northwest Wisconsin and for areas closer to Lake Superior the first freeze of the season is a little later in September, typically between the 21st and 30th.

Source, Midwest Regional Climate Center.














Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  August 31, 2016

The final day of August and meteorological Summer 2016 was a nice one with highs ranging from the upper 60s in northern Minnesota to the 70s elsewhere.  Mostly cloudy skies were common in northern Minnesota today with more sunshine farther south.  Winds today were out of the north at around 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

…Short Term Forecast…

Tonight through Thursday night (August 31-September 1)

Quiet weather will continue.  Patchy fog possible late tonight and again late Thursday night.  Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows tonight and Thursday night in the 40s and 50s with highs on Thursday in the 70s with 60s closer to Lake Superior.  North or east winds at 5 to 15 mph.

…Extended Forecast…

Friday (September 2)

Southerly winds increase on Friday with highs in the 70s.  Lows Friday night will be in the 50s.  Dry weather will continue on Friday.

Saturday (September 3)

Not much change in the weather — Mainly dry with highs topping out in the 70s once again.  Could be a few showers or thunderstorms mainly over western portions of the Northland by Saturday night as a low pressure system and cold front move slowly east toward the Upper Midwest — A better chance for occasional showers and thunderstorms from Sunday through Tuesday the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 49 to 54.  Wind north around 10 mph.

.Thursday…  Cooler.  Partly cloudy.  High 65 to 70.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

Forecast for the Silver 1000 at Proctor Speedway on Thursday – Gates open at 4 PM, temperatures 65 to 70 degrees with an east wind at 10 to 15 mph.

Racing starts at 7 PM – Temperatures should fall into the 50s between 7-10 PM Thursday with east winds at 10 to 15 mph.

Zero percent chance of rain!

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  71
Low:   52

Sunrise Thursday:  6:29 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:47 PM CDT

Tim

Pleasant weather conditions through Friday

/Issued 4:29 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 30, 2016/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.

Wednesday’s high temperature forecast.

7-day rainfall forecast.  Source, Weather Prediction Center.

Rainfall reports for August 29, 2016
Source:  National Weather Service Duluth, MN; CoCoRaHs

Note:  Totals listed below are from the round of storms Monday evening.

Butternut, WI:  1.11″
Two Harbors, MN 0.9 WSW:  1.06″
Duluth, MN (NWS total)  1.04″
Two Harbors, MN 3.6 WNW:  0.90″

Saxon, WI 1 WSW:  0.85″
Cloquet, MN:  0.82″
Two Harbors, MN:  0.79″
Butternut, WI 5.9 SW:  0.74″

Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.73″
Iron River, WI 7.2 SE:  0.62″
Duluth, MN 7.4 NNE:  0.61″
Duluth, MN 3.0 NE:  0.57″

Spooner, WI:  0.51″
Hayward, WI 9.2 NNE:  0.44″
Spooner, WI 10.6 WNW:  0.40″
Hurley, WI:  0.37″

Ashland, WI:  0.31″
Grantsburg, WI 0.6 SSW:  0.27″
Hayward, WI:  0.24″
Stone Lake, WI 2 NW:  0.23″

Barnes, WI 2.2 S:  0.21″
Ashland, WI 0.5 WNW:  0.18″
Wright, MN 3 E:  0.14″
Duluth, MN 7.9 SW:  0.13″

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  August 30, 2016

A refreshing airmass on this second to last day of meteorological Summer 2016.  Clear to partly cloudy skies were found over the area today with highs mainly in the 70s but the bigger story were the dew points which fell into the 50s and even into the 40s in some locations this afternoon.  Winds today were out of the north or west at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

…Short Term Forecast…

Tonight through Wednesday night (August 30-31)

High pressure will be in control of our weather — Expect clear to partly cloudy skies with patchy fog possible late tonight and again late Wednesday night.  Lows in the 40s and 50s tonight and Wednesday night, highs on Wednesday mainly in the 70s.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

…Extended Forecast…

Thursday (September 1)

Meteorological Fall will begin on a pleasant note…Not too cold, not too warm.  Dry weather will continue with highs on Thursday in the 70s except around Lake Superior where highs will be in the 60s thanks to an easterly breeze.  Lows Thursday night will be in the 40s and 50s.

Friday (September 2)

Dry weather with a wind shift to the south.  Highs are forecast to be in the 70s, cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Looking ahead to the Labor Day weekend:  I think will stay dry on Saturday but the period from Saturday night through Monday could turn wet at times with occasional showers or thunderstorms.  I don’t think will have an all-day type rain Sunday or Monday, with at least some dry hours expected on both of those days the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind northwest around 10 mph.

.Wednesday…  Mostly sunny.  High 71 to 76.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  71
Low:   52

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:28 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:49 PM CDT

Tim

A nice stretch of weather ahead, mild temps during the day, cool at night; Warmth, humidity and rain chances return Labor Day weekend

/Issued 5:10 PM CDT, August 29, 2016/

Looks like any shower/t-storm activity is going to remain south of Duluth and Superior this evening but with the cold front still to our west as of 5 PM an isolated storm could still develop.











Tonight’s low temperature forecast.



















Tuesday’s high temperature forecast.



















Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  August 29, 2016

A mostly cloudy start to the day gave way to partly to mostly sunny skies across most of the area this afternoon.  Once the sun came out, temperatures climbed quickly with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with mid 80s in the Aitkin and Hinckley areas late this afternoon.  It was also on the muggy side today with late afternoon dew points in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  Winds today were out of the south, west or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

…Short Term Forecast…

This evening

A cold front analyzed from northern Minnesota to northeast South Dakota at 4 PM will move toward the east and should clear the area by late tonight.  The atmosphere has recovered nicely after the storms and lingering clouds earlier today.  Mesoanalysis shows CAPE of 1500-3000 j/kg across the Northland with steep mid level lapse rates around 7.0 c/km.  Lifted indices ranged from -4 to -9 C from north to south across the area.  The limiting factors for widespread thunderstorms and severe weather this evening is the lack of wind shear as well as the weak winds aloft.  Also, the convergence along and ahead of this cold front is quite weak — Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to develop despite the negatives that are in place, most of this convection would occur thanks to the moist and unstable airmass that is already in place.  There is still a chance that a few storms could pulse up to near severe criteria this evening mainly over eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Gusty winds and hail would be the primary hazards if a stronger thunderstorm does develop.  Heavy downpours and lightning will also occur in any thunderstorm this evening as PWATS increase to around 1.40-1.70″.

Late tonight

Turning cooler and less humid under partly cloudy skies.  Areas of fog could develop.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s with winds turning to the north or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday (August 30)

A pleasant day with much lower humidity.  Highs will be in the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Sky conditions are expected to vary between clear or partly cloudy.

…Extended Forecast…

Wednesday and Thursday (August 31-September 1)

Nice weather continues on Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions.  Highs both days should mainly be in the 70s with lows Wednesday night in the 40s and 50s.  Note:  An east wind looks like it will develop on Thursday which may keep temperatures in the 60s near the immediate Lake Superior shoreline.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this evening.  Turning less humid late.  Low 56 to 61.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest.

.Tuesday…  Less humid.  Partly cloudy.  High 72 to 77.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Dew point in the 50s.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  71
Low:   52

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:26 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   7:51 PM CDT

Tim

1-2"+ rain totals in much of northern Minnesota from last night’s storms; Humid with additional t-storms possible late this afternoon/evening

/Issued 12:57 PM CDT, Monday, August 29, 2016/

Early afternoon visible satellite imagery and surface analysis – See map below.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

The main feature to watch today is the cold front which was over northwest Minnesota early this afternoon — This front will move east and is forecast to move into northeast Minnesota by late this afternoon and into northwest Wisconsin this evening.  Debris clouds in the wake of the early morning storms were beginning to shrink/erode in northeast Minnesota and skies should become partly to mostly sunny by 2 PM where it’s still overcast at Noon today.

Temperatures will warm into the 70s and perhaps the 80s depending on how soon and for how long skies will remain partly cloudy.  Dew points will hold in the 60s while the instability increases as skies clear this afternoon.  By late afternoon, CAPE of 1500-3000 j/kg is forecast to be in place across parts of the Northland.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop between 4-6 PM today and linger through the evening hours.  At the moment, it looks like the better chances for additional storms later this afternoon will be along and south of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota and will include all of northwest Wisconsin.

Wind shear is on the marginal side today, and winds aloft are also on the weak side.  The low level jet is forecast to be in the 25-30 knot range which is also marginal.  So although scattered thunderstorm development is possible later today, the overall severe weather potential is relatively low, but pulse type storms containing hail and gusty winds can’t be ruled out.  Heavy downpours will probably be one of the bigger hazards due to the abundant moisture in place.  Lightning will also be a hazard from any thunderstorm.

Severe weather outlook through this evening.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

12-hour enhanced satellite loop starting at 11:30 PM last night (Aug 28) ending at 11:30 AM today (Aug 29)  Source, unisys.com

Colder cloud tops show up in darker blue and green colors – Temperatures as low as 60 below to around 70 below zero Celsius last night associated with the large thunderstorm complex that affected much of the Northland.

Thunderstorm cloud tops were so tall prior to sunset last evening that it was casting shadows downstream of where the thunderstorms were located.  Check out these visible satellite images from 7:15 PM and from 7:45 PM CDT Sunday evening, August 28, 2016. Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

By the way cloud tops with the massive supercell/tornadic thunderstorm just northeast of Ada, Minnesota last evening ranged from 60,000-69,000 feet — Incredible!

Rainfall reports for August 28-29, 2016
Source; CoCoRaHs; MesoWest; National Weather Service Duluth, MN

Crane Lake, MN 3 W:  2.98″
Lake Winnibigoshish, MN:  2.88″
Orr, MN 3 E:  2.43″
Kabetogama, MN:  2.41″

Bigfork, MN 8 S:  2.23″
Hibbing, MN:  2.17″
Littlefork, MN:  2.03″
Cook, MN:  1.98″

Iron Junction, MN 3.4 WNW:  1.85″
Embarrass, MN:  1.85″
Grand Falls, MN:  1.81″
Keewatin, MN 0.2 SSE:  1.71″

Littlefork, MN 1 NNE:  1.71″
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  1.40″
Chisholm, MN 0.4 WSW:  1.28″
Island Lake, MN 4 E:  1.27″

Togo, MN:  1.19″
Deer River, MN 3.7 W:  1.09″
Cook, MN 14.8 WSW:  1.08″
Duluth, MN (NWS total)  1.04″

Winton, MN 0.1 WSW:  1.01″
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.99″
Pillager, MN 5.1 N:  0.97″
Duluth, MN 17.6 NNW:  0.94″

Hermantown, MN 9.3 NNE:  0.93″
Cloquet, MN 3.1 ENE:  0.85″
Pine River, MN 2.7 NE:  0.84″
Kabetogama, MN 1.5 NW:  0.80″

Longville, MN 6.2 SW:  0.78″
Duluth, MN 4.2 NNE:  0.74″
Emily, MN 1 SSE:  0.74″
Barnes, WI 2.2 S:  0.69″

Two Harbors, MN 3.6 WNW:  0.67″
Two Harbors, MN:  0.67″
Carlton, MN 5.6 NE:  0.64″
Duluth, MN 7.9 SW:  0.59″

Superior, WI (Airport)  0.59″
Duluth, MN 1.9 NNE:  0.58″
Brainerd, MN 6.9 NW:  0.55″
International Falls, MN:  0.55″

McGregor, MN 7.3 N:  0.53″
Brainerd, MN:  0.49″
Silver Bay, MN:  0.49″
Two Harbors, MN 9.7 NNE:  0.48″

Askov, MN 0.8 S:  0.47″
Isabella, MN:  0.46″
Mahtowa, MN 3.2 NW:  0.43″
Poplar, WI 7.8 SSW:  0.39″

Moose Lake, MN:  0.31″
Grand Marais, MN 4.4 W:  0.28″
Minong, WI:  0.25″
Tofte, MN 4.9 NE:  0.23″

Mellen, WI 18.6 SW:  0.21″
Hinckley, MN:  0.21″
Ashland, WI 0.5 WNW:  0.20″
Odanah, WI 1.6 E:  0.19″

Tim

Warm and muggy on Monday with dew points approaching 70 degrees, highs around 80; Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms in parts of the Northland through Monday evening

/Issued 4:57 PM CDT, Sunday, August 28, 2016/

Visible satellite image from 4:30 PM today.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Warm front extends from northern and eastern North Dakota southeast toward the Twin Cities late afternoon, this front will lift north/northeast through the night.  Scattered thunderstorms should erupt near and north of this boundary tonight, some of these storms could become strong to severe.

Tonight’s severe weather outlook.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Severe thunderstorm outlook for Monday, August 29, 2016.  Source, Storm Prediction Center.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.

Monday’s high temperature forecast.

Last week’s temperature departure map.  The greatest departures from normal last week were once again found closer to Lake Superior where above average temperatures occurred.  Southern portions of northwest Wisconsin had below average temperatures last week while most of northern Minnesota had near to slightly below normal temperatures for the week of August 21st.

Below average precipitation in most of the Northland for the week of August 21st.  The only exception to this was far eastern portions of northwest Wisconsin from Ashland and Hurley south to Park Falls — Those areas had near normal precipitation totals last week.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota – Airport location.

August 21-27, 2016

High temperatures:

8/21:  70 F/-4 degrees below normal
8/22:  81 F/+8 degrees above normal
8/23:  85 F/+12 degrees above normal
8/24:  82 F/+9 degrees above normal
8/25:  72 F/-1 degree below normal
8/26:  73 F/Normal
8/27:  64 F/-8 degrees below normal

Low temperatures:

8/21:  50 F/-4 degrees below normal
8/22:  55 F/+1 degree above normal
8/23:  66 F/+12 degrees above normal
8/24:  57 F/+4 degrees above normal
8/25:  55 F/+2 degrees above normal
8/26:  53 F/Normal
8/27:  57 F/+4 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.33″
Normal:  0.86″
Departure:  -0.53″ below normal

Note:  Only a few more days left of August and for Meteorological summer 2016

Stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Total precipitation for August (thru the 27th)  3.24″
Departure:  +0.04″ above normal

Precipitation total since June 1st:  12.09″
Departure:  +0.81″ above normal

Average temperature for August (thru the 27th)  67.6 degrees
Departure:  +2.9 degrees above normal

24 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 70 F (Average is 23 days)
11 days so far this month with a high temperature of at least 80 F (Average is 7 days)

72 days so far this summer with a high temperature of at least 70 F (Average is 65 days)

28 days so far this summer with a high temperature of at least 80 F (Average is 23 days)

Note:  The average temperature so far for the summer of 2016 (thru Aug 27) 65.4 degrees which is +2.0 degrees warmer than normal.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  August 28, 2016

Widespread low clouds and some fog this morning gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine during the afternoon hours.  High temperatures were generally in the 70s with late afternoon dew points in the 50s in far northeast Minnesota and in the 60s over the rest of the area.  Winds today were out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

…Short Term Forecast…

Tonight (August 28)

Showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage in western-northern areas this evening…Storms should then move toward the east or east-southeast reaching eastern Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin well after midnight.

Some of the storms could be strong to severe tonight especially across north central Minnesota but there is at least a marginal risk for storms to be strong to severe as far east as far northwest Wisconsin overnight.

The setup in place tonight will feature a warm front lifting slowly N/NE into the Northland.  CAPE has increased to 1000-2000 j/kg late this afternoon over most of the Northland with Lifted Indices of about -2 to -6 degrees Celsius.  An area of higher CAPE 3000-5000 j/kg covered the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota late this afternoon and storms should develop on the nose of this higher instability gradient this evening.

Large hail and strong winds will be the main threats from storms that become severe tonight in parts of the Northland.

There is a chance for a few tornadoes mainly before Midnight generally along and near a Grand Forks to Fargo line east toward Moorhead, Crookston, Detroit Lakes and Park Rapids — Storm relative helicity values have increased to around 300 m2/s2 late this afternoon per mesoanalysis in that area…If storms can develop this evening they will have a chance to produce a tornado.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 60s with 50s along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Winds will be out of the south or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Monday (August 29)

Warm front is forecast to lift north into Ontario Province but a cold front will move through the Northland during the afternoon/evening hours.  If the atmosphere can recover after tonight’s storms, then a chance for more strong to severe thunderstorms exists in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the afternoon and evening.

The amount of instability over our area could be higher tomorrow with CAPE possibly in the 3000-4000 j/kg range with Lifted Indices of -4 to -9 degrees Celsius along with mid level lapse rates around 7.0 c/km.

Low level jet although not as strong as tonight (30-40 knots) should still be in the 25-35 knot range on Monday with mid level winds around 30 knots.  Deep layer wind shear is forecast to be at around 30 knots or so.  Note:  The winds aloft and amount of deep layer wind shear that is forecast tomorrow isn’t the best but should still be enough to get the job done assuming there is enough clearing before late Monday afternoon.

High temperatures on Monday will be in the 70s and 80s with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s.  Lows Monday night will be in the 50s and 60s.  South or southwest winds tomorrow at 10 to 20 mph will become west or northwest tomorrow night.

…Extended Forecast…

Tuesday and Wednesday (August 30-31)

High pressure builds into the Upper Midwest resulting in dry weather with cooler temperatures and much less humid conditions.  Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to be in the 70s with lows Tuesday night in the 40s and 50s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible mainly after Midnight.  Low 62 to 66.  Wind southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Muggy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible early and again by late afternoon.  High 79 to 84.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.  Dew point around 70 degrees.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  72
Low:   52

Sunrise Monday:  6:25 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:53 PM CDT

Tim