Monthly Archives: September 2016

/Issued 4:25 PM CDT, Friday, September 30, 2016/

Note:  Preliminary climate stats for September at Duluth, MN:

Average temperature around +4.0 degrees warmer than normal
Total precipitation -0.59″ below normal

Through September 29 – The average temperature was 60.1 degrees which ties with 1933 for 9th warmest September on record.

CFSv2 temperature anomaly forecast for October 2016.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Orange and red colors=Above average temperatures
Blue colors=Below average temperatures
White areas=Near normal temperatures

CFSv2 precipitation anomaly forecast for October 2016.  Source, TropicalTidbits.com

Green areas=Above average precipitation
Yellow areas=Below average precipitation
White areas=Near normal precipitation

October climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Base period:  1981-2010

Temperature:  43.2 degrees
Precipitation:  2.85″
Snowfall:  2.3″

Normal high temperature on the 1st:  58 degrees
Normal high temperature on the 31st:  44 degrees

Normal low temperature on the 1st:  40 degrees
Normal low temperature on the 31st:  30 degrees

Warmest October on record:  55.9 degrees in 1963
Coldest October on record:  33.5 degrees in 1917

Wettest October on record:  7.53″ in 1949
Driest October on record:  0.09″ in 1895

Snowiest October on record:  14.0″ in 1933

Average number of days in Oct with a high temperature at or above 70 F:  2
Most 70 degree days on record in Oct:  5 days in 2003 and in 1989

Average number of days with 0.1″ or greater snow accumulation:  2
Average number of days with 1.0″ or greater snow accumulation:  1

Astronomical data for October:

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:08 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:49 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  6:47 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st:  5:55 PM CDT

Here’s a look at the top 10 snowiest Octobers on record at Duluth, Minnesota

1)  14.0″ in 1933
2)  11.5″ in 1925
3)    9.7″ in 1995
4)    8.1″ in 1966
5)    7.7″ in 2010
6)    7.0″ in 1936 and 1926
7)    6.5″ in 1955
8)    6.3″ in 2002
9)    5.8″ in 1951 and 1919
10)  5.1″ in 1992

Note:  October 2015 was warmer and drier than normal at Duluth, Minnesota.  Average temperature was 46.3 degrees (+3.1 degrees above average)  1.90″ of precipitation which was (-0.95″ below normal)  1 thunderstorm day and there was a trace of snowfall last October.

Late afternoon water vapor satellite image.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, NWS Duluth, MN.

Saturday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, NWS Duluth, MN.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 30, 2016

Low clouds have lingered through the day for locations closer to Lake Superior; Elsewhere morning low clouds eroded from east-west giving way to mostly sunny skies this afternoon.  Highs today ranged from the 50s near Lake Superior with 60s elsewhere, a few locations including Aitkin, McGregor and Phillips were even close to 70 degrees on this final day of September.  Winds today were out of the north or east at around 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph near Lake Superior.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast…

Tonight (September 30)

Near Lake Superior expect skies to remain overcast tonight although there could be a brief period of partial clearing that occurs this evening.  The remainder of the Northland will start with mostly clear skies but will turn mostly cloudy later in the night as low clouds redevelop.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s with 30s possible in the typical cold spots.  Winds will be out of the east at around 10 mph.

Saturday (October 1)

Morning low clouds will likely burn off giving way to mostly sunny skies tomorrow afternoon but near Lake Superior the low clouds might stick around most of the day thanks to a moist onshow flow off Lake Superior.  Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees with near 60 degree temperatures closer to Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s and 50s.  Will have east winds on Saturday at 5 to 15 mph.

Note:  Low pressure which was north of Lake Superior early in the week moved into Kentucky on Thursday and remains in that general area this afternoon — This system will now lift back toward the north through the weekend, likely moving into the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday.  Shouldn’t get any more rain in our area as this low moves back over the eastern Great Lakes this weekend but this system will help maintain an easterly low level flow.

.Extended Forecast…

Sunday and Monday (October 2-3)

Looking pretty nice on Sunday and Monday – Dry weather is expected with daytime highs in the 60s to lower 70s but it will be cooler near Lake Superior.  Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the 40s.

Note:  Still looks like the next best chance for rain in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will occur between next Wednesday-Thursday, October 5-6.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Mostly cloudy but some decrease in the clouds is possible as the day wears on.  High 57 to 62.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Dry.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 62 to 67.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  58
Low:   40

Sunrise Saturday:  7:08 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:47 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 4:33 PM CDT, Thursday, September 29, 2016/

Visible satellite image from 3 PM today, September 29, 2016.  Source, http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

If you live near Lake Superior then you enjoyed mostly sunny skies this afternoon while most of northern and central Minnesota continued to be socked in by a low level cloud deck.  Unfortunately I think the low clouds will return to locations near Lake Superior, so Friday probably won’t be as sunny as what we saw this afternoon but hey I’ve been wrong before.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source, NWS Duluth, MN.

Friday’s high temperature forecast.  Source, NWS Duluth, MN.

October begins on Saturday – Here’s a look at past October snowfall totals dating back to 1950.

Duluth Airport snowfall totals

*Average snowfall total for October is 2.3″

1950:  0.2″
1951:  5.8″
1952:  0.5″
1953:  Trace
1954:  2.9″
1955:  6.5″
1956:  0.0″
1957:  0.3″
1958:  0.4″
1959:  3.3″

1960:  Trace
1961:  Trace
1962:  0.7″
1963:  0.0″
1964:  Trace
1965:  Trace
1966:  8.1″
1967:  0.8″
1968:  Trace
1969:  4.3″

1970:  0.2″
1971:  0.2″
1972:  0.5″
1973:  Trace
1974:  0.8″
1975:  0.1″
1976:  0.8″
1977:  1.7″
1978:  Trace
1979:  0.8″

1980:  1.3″
1981:  1.4″
1982:  0.8″
1983:  Trace
1984:  3.5″
1985:  2.3″
1986:  1.8″
1987:  3.9″
1988:  0.3″
1989:  0.6″

1990:  3.2″
1991:  4.3″
1992:  5.1″
1993:  0.6″
1994:  0.2″
1995:  9.7″
1996:  0.3″
1997:  1.2″
1998:  Trace
1999:  0.0″

2000:  Trace
2001:  2.0″
2002:  6.3″
2003:  4.5″
2004:  Trace
2005:  0.1″
2006:  4.1″
2007:  Trace
2008:  0.2″
2009:  3.7″

2010:  7.7″
2011:  Trace
2012:  1.1″
2013:  0.3″
2014:  0.1″
2015:  Trace

Notes:

*Since 1950:  3 Octobers had no snow with 1999 the most recent one.

*17 Octobers since 1950 had above average snowfall, the most recent one being in 2010 (7.7″)

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 29, 2016

Sunshine finally returned to parts of the area today – Late this afternoon visible satellite imagery showed sunny to mostly sunny skies around Lake Superior and in parts of far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, farther west skies were mostly cloudy.  High temperatures today were in the mid 50s to low 60s with middle 60s from Hayward to Park Falls.  Winds today were out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast…

Tonight (September 29)

The low pressure system which had been over the Great Lakes the past few days has moved into Kentucky today with a ridge now covering parts of the Upper Midwest – This ridge will remain in place tonight resulting in mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies.  Patchy fog could develop late.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s with 30s in the typical spots.  Winds will be out of the north or east at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday (September 30)

Low clouds might have a tough time burning off tomorrow but there should be some clearing by the afternoon especially in western portions of the Northland – Near Lake Superior the low clouds could linger through the day thanks to an easterly wind off Lake Superior.

Highs on Friday will be in the 60s with 50s closer to Lake Superior.  Lows Friday night will be in the 40s to around 50 degrees.  Winds will be out of the east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast…

Saturday and Sunday (October 1-2)

Low pressure over the southeast U.S. today is forecast to move back toward the N-NW through Sunday with this system moving over the central/eastern Great Lakes region late this weekend.  Clouds associated with this low will likely move into the Northland Saturday and Sunday but there shouldn’t be any rain, although some patchy drizzle can’t be ruled out at times around Lake Superior due to a moist onshore flow.

Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the 60s, possibly holding in the 50s on Saturday near Lake Superior.  Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s.

Looking farther ahead…The next best chance for widespread rain looks to be during the middle-end of next week as low pressure develops over the Rockies and tracks into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest.  At this time it looks like October 5-7 will be the time frame where some rain could affect northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly clear but clouds increasing during the night.  Low 43 to 48.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Patchy drizzle possible.  High 53 to 58.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  59
Low:   40

Sunrise Friday:  7:07 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:49 PM CDT

Tim

/Issued 6:55 PM CDT, Sunday, September 25, 2016/

HRRRX model wind gust forecast valid for Monday morning.

Visible satellite image from late this morning – A classic looking fall storm with rain east and west and a dry slot in between.

Source, Weather Prediction Center

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.

Monday’s high temperature forecast.

Rainfall reports for September 25, 2016
Source:  MesoWest

Note:  Rainfall totals listed below are thru 5 PM today.

Kabetogama, MN:  1.08″
Orr, MN:  1.01″
Grand Portage, MN:  1.00″
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.91″
Hill City, MN:  0.85″

Grand Marais, MN:  0.78″
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.67″
Saginaw, MN:  0.47″
Cloquet, MN:  0.46″
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.45″

Brainerd, MN:  0.45″
International Falls, MN:  0.44″
Hinckley, MN:  0.40″
Pine River, MN:  0.34″
Two Harbors, MN:  0.31″

Moose Lake, MN:  0.31″
Siren, WI:  0.29″
Silver Bay, MN:  0.23″
Cook, MN:  0.23″
Isabella, MN:  0.18″

Minong, WI:  0.16″
Superior, WI:  0.12″
Hayward, WI:  0.11″
Phillips, WI:  0.10″
Clam Lake, WI:  0.07″

Temperature departure map for the week of September 18.  Above average temperatures over most of the Northland last week.

Precipitation departure map for the week of September 18.  Below average precipitation in most of the Northland while southern portions of Minnesota had well above normal precipitation totals last week.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, MN (Airport location)

September 18-24, 2016

High temperatures:

9/18:  71 F/+7 degrees above normal
9/19:  73 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/20:  72 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/21:  68 F/+5 degrees above normal
9/22:  65 F/+3 degrees above normal
9/23:  64 F/+2 degrees above normal
9/24:  62 F/+1 degree above normal

Low temperatures:

9/18:  44 F/-1 degree below normal
9/19:  50 F/+5 degrees above normal
9/20:  46 F/+2 degrees above normal
9/21:  53 F/+9 degrees above normal
9/22:  51 F/+7 degrees above normal
9/23:  53 F/+10 degrees above normal
9/24:  54 F/+11 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.10″
Normal:  0.97″
Departure:  -0.87″ below normal

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
Date:  September 25, 2016

Strong height falls and cold air advection moved into the Northland this afternoon but before this happened temperatures did warm into the 60s to lower 70s but late this afternoon temperatures have dropped into the mid 50s and low 60s.  Rain this morning gave way to partly to mostly sunny skies but more clouds than sun returned to most of the area by late this afternoon along with scattered rain showers.  Winds today shifted to the south or west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Surface map at 5 PM had low pressure of 1000mb over western Ontario Province with one cold front over eastern Wisconsin with a second cold front across central Minnesota.  12-hour 500mb height falls of 90-120 meters covered the Northland this afternoon which is quite impressive for late September.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast…

Tonight through Monday night (September 25-26)

Windy and cool fall weather on the way under mostly cloudy skies as a strong low pressure system at the surface and aloft move slowly east as it passes north of Lake Superior through Monday night while a deep upper level trough moves over the Upper Midwest.

Occasional light rain and drizzle will be found over most of the Northland tonight through Monday night with western-southwest portions of the area having the least chance for rain by Monday.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s with highs on Monday in the 50s but remaining in the upper 40s in far northeast Minnesota.  Lows Monday night in the 40s with 30s around the Brainerd Lakes area.

Will have a strong wind out of the west or northwest tonight through Monday night — Wind speeds at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph.

.Extended Forecast…

Tuesday (September 27)

Lingering effects of low pressure and upper level trough continues on Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin along with a chance for more rain showers and drizzle while far western areas remain dry.  Highs on Tuesday in the 40s and 50s but near 60 around the Brainerd Lakes.  Lows Tuesday night in the 30s and 40s.

Wednesday (September 28)

Will finally see the area of low pressure move a bit more to the south/east by midweek which should lead to sunnier skies in most of the Northland on Wednesday but the Arrowhead of Minnesota and portions of northern Wisconsin will probably have more clouds than sun.  Highs on Wednesday are forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Windy.  Mostly cloudy with occasional light rain.  Low 47 to 50.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

.Monday…  Windy.  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional light rain.  High 50 to 54.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  61
Low:   42

Sunrise Monday:  7:01 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   6:57 PM CDT

Tim