Outlook for November – Warmer than average, below average snowfall in Duluth

/Issued October 31, 2016/

Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

CFSv2 model Temperature Anomaly Forecast for November 2016.

Orange/red colors=Above average temperatures

CFSv2 model Precipitation Anomaly Forecast for November 2016.

Green/Blue areas=Above average
Yellow areas=Below average
White areas=Near normal

November climate averages at Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Base period:  1981-2010

Temperature:  28.8 degrees
Snowfall:  13.7″
Precipitation:  2.09″

Warmest November on record:  40.6 degrees in 1899
Coldest November on record:  18.8 degrees in 1959

Wettest November on record:  5.08″ in 2000
Driest November on record:  0.09″ in 1917

Snowiest November on record:  50.1″ in 1991
Least snowiest November on record:  Trace in 1928

Number of days with snow (Accumulation 0.1″ or greater)  9
Number of days with snow (Accumulation 1.0″ or greater)  4

Astronomical data for November

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:51 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  7:31 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  5:53 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  4:23 PM CST

Note:  Daylight Saving Time ends on November 6th.

November 2015 climate stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  36.7 degrees
Departure:  +7.3 degrees above normal

Note:  November 2015 was the 4th warmest on record dating back to 1874.

Total precipitation:  2.75″
Departure:  +0.66″ above normal

Total snowfall:  4.4″
Departure:  -9.3″ below normal

Number of days with snow (Accumulation of 0.1″ or greater)  6
Number of days with snow (Accumulation of 1.0″ or greater)  1

Top 5 warmest Novembers on record at Duluth, Minnesota
Note:  Dating back to 1874

1)  40.6 degrees in 1899
2)  39.5 degrees in 2001
3)  37.9 degrees in 2009
4)  36.7 degrees in 2015
5)  36.1 degrees in 1999 and 1931

*3 out of the top 5 warmest Novembers in history have occurred since 2000.

November climate stats 2000-2015

Average temperature/departure from average

2000:  28.6 degrees (-0.2 degrees below average)
2001:  39.5 degrees (+10.7 degrees above average)
2002:  25.6 degrees (-3.2 degrees below average)
2003:  26.6 degrees (-2.2 degrees below average)
2004:  33.4 degrees (+4.6 degrees above average)
2005:  30.7 degrees (+1.9 degrees above average)
2006:  31.8 degrees (+3.0 degrees above average)
2007:  28.9 degrees (+0.1 degree above average)
2008:  28.9 degrees (+0.1 degree above average)
2009:  37.1 degrees (+9.1 degrees above average)
2010:  30.5 degrees (+1.7 degrees above average)
2011:  33.1 degrees (+4.3 degrees above average)
2012:  30.9 degrees (+2.1 degrees above average)
2013:  27.9 degrees (-0.9 degrees below average)
2014:  21.8 degrees (-7.0 degrees below average)
2015:  36.7 degrees (+7.9 degrees above average)

Since 2000:  5 Novembers have had below average temperatures.

Total snowfall/departure from average

2000:  17.5″ (+3.8″ above normal)
2001:  11.4″ (-2.3″ below normal)
2002:    4.3″ (-9.4″ below normal)
2003:  19.4″ (+5.7″ above normal)
2004:    1.4″ (-12.3″ below normal)
2005:  11.4″ (-2.3″ below normal)
2006:    4.0″ (-9.7″ below normal)
2007:    6.0″ (-7.7″ below normal)
2008:    3.2″ (-10.5″ below normal)
2009:    1.1″ (-12.6″ below normal)
2010:  27.9″ (+14.2″ above normal)
2011:     3.7″ (-10.0″ below normal)
2012:  10.1″ (-3.6″ below normal)
2013:    4.7″ (-9.0″ below normal)
2014:  16.4″ (+2.7″ above normal)
2015:    4.4″ (-9.3″ below normal)

Since 2000:  4 Novembers have had above average snowfall.

What can we expect this November?

Looks warmer and drier than average at Duluth.

Temperature:  Around +4.5 degrees above average
Total snowfall:  Around 3-4″ (~10″ below average)

Summary:  There is a high amount of certainty that the first week of November will be warmer than average, it does look like the pattern will slowly change toward mid November with late November probably being the coldest portion of the month.  It’s unlikely though given the warm start to the month that even with potential colder temperatures for mid-late month that it would result in a below average November but will see.

Snowfall:  Doesn’t look very snowy in November but I do think will have a few minor snow events especially from mid to late month, actually the forecast snowfall totals this November look quite similar to what we got last November.

Tim

Clouds, drizzle and some showers on Monday (Gusty south winds, highs near 50) Could be close to 60 degrees on Wednesday

/Issued 7:35 PM CDT, Sunday, October 30, 2016/

Not a lot of rain expected around our area with Monday’s storm.  Source:  http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Monday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Temperature departure map for the week of October 23rd.  Source:  http://www.sercc.com/

Above average temperatures last week in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a small area of near to below average temperatures in northern Wisconsin (Green area on map)

Precipitation departure map for the week of October 23rd.  Source:  http://www.sercc.com/

Below average precipitation totals last week over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

October 23-29, 2016

High temperatures:

10/23:  48 F/Normal
10/24:  53 F/+5 degrees above normal
10/25:  47 F/Normal
10/26:  42 F/-5 degrees below normal
10/27:  50 F/+4 degrees above normal
10/28:  53 F/+7 degrees above normal
10/29:  52 F/+7 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

10/23:  31 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/24:  32 F/Normal
10/25:  35 F/+3 degrees above normal
10/26:  39 F/+7 degrees above normal
10/27:  39 F/+8 degrees above normal
10/28:  41 F/+10 degrees above normal
10/29:  41 F/+11 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.13″
Normal:  0.55″
Departure:  -0.42″ below normal

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly sunny skies today in far northern Minnesota while it was mostly cloudy for areas farther south.  Highs today mainly in the 40s with a variable wind at around 10 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast…

Tonight through Monday night (October 30-31)

High pressure over southeast Minnesota early this evening moves off to the east while low pressure now over the northern Rockies heads into the Dakotas on Monday and will move into western Ontario Province by late Monday night.

Low level jet out of the S-SW will increase to 40-50+ knots ahead of this system on Monday, and will shift to the W/SW Monday night as the low passes NW of our area.  A warm and moist advection pattern gets underway tonight and will peak on Monday when dew points rise into the 40s to around 50 degrees while PWATS climb to between 0.75-0.90″.

Partly to mostly cloudy tonight, mostly cloudy Monday and Monday night — Scattered rain showers and possibly some drizzle is expected in parts of the Northland on Monday into Monday evening.

Low temperatures tonight in the 30s to near 40 degrees.  Highs on Monday and lows Monday night will be in the 40s to lower 50s.

Winds tonight shifting to the south/southeast at 5 to 15 mph.  South or southeast winds on Monday at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Winds shift to the southwest Monday night at 15 to 30 mph.

.Long Range Forecast…

Tuesday and Wednesday (November 1-2)

Dry and mild temperatures as November gets underway.  High temperatures in the 40s and 50s on Tuesday with lows Tuesday night in the 30s to lower 40s.  Highs on Wednesday will be in the 50s with temperatures near 60 degrees possible over southern portions of the Northland.

Note:  No signs of any significant cold airmass or snow affecting the Northland at least through November 8th.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind becoming south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and drizzle possible.  High 50 to 55.  Wind south to southeast at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  44
Low:   30

Sunrise Monday:  7:50 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   5:54 PM CDT

Tim

A little bit of sun possible on Sunday; A few showers but mild on Halloween

/Issued 8:22 PM CDT, Saturday, October 29, 2016/

Looks like a gray/spooky Halloween around the Northland but no major rain or snow storm this year.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Sunday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Rainfall reports for October 29, 2016
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu/

International Falls, MN:  0.12″
Washburn, WI:  0.09″
Barnes, WI:  0.08″
Littlefork, MN:  0.06″
Phillips, WI:  0.04″
Cook, MN:  0.03″
Two Harbors, MN:  0.03″
Siren, WI:  0.02″
Ashland, WI:  0.02″
Clam Lake, WI:  0.02″

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Another day that featured generally mostly cloudy skies although there were some breaks in the overcast which allowed for glimpses of sun in parts of the area.  Scattered rain showers also occurred today across far northern Minnesota and also over southern portions of northwest Wisconsin.  Highs today were in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s so still above average as we get closer to the end of October.  Winds today were out of the north at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast…

Tonight (October 29)

High pressure builds east/southeast out of the Dakotas — Mostly cloudy to at times partly cloudy skies are expected tonight with lows in the 30s to around 40 degrees but if skies clear out more than expected and remain that way for a few hours, then a few locations could drop into the 20s in northern Minnesota.  Winds tonight out of the north or northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday (October 30)

High pressure will move over Minnesota on Sunday before it exits off to the east Sunday night.  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies are forecast for Sunday with highs in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

Low pressure moves into the western Dakotas late Sunday night with a warm air advection pattern developing over the Northland — Could see a few rain showers develop in parts of the area late Sunday night otherwise expecting mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 30s to lower 40s.

Winds on Sunday will be out of the west at 10 to 15 mph, winds Sunday night turn to the east.

.Extended Forecast…

Halloween (October 31)

An area of low pressure is forecast to move E/NE out of the western Dakotas on Monday, this low should pass west/north of the Northland Monday night — A warm front and cold front attached to this surface low will move through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday afternoon/evening.

A strong low level jet out of the south is forecast to increase to 40-50+ knots on Monday which results in a strong warm/moist advection pattern to the east of this system.  Even with the strong low level jet in place the amount of moisture looks pretty low with dew points only in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees while PWATS range from around 0.80″ to around 1.00″.

Not expecting a lot of rain with this system on Monday but scattered showers are certainly possible especially over northern Minnesota.  Still can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm on Monday but the amount of instability looks pretty low per model data.

Highs on Monday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Monday night mainly in the 40s.

Winds look fairly strong on Monday with S/SE winds during the day shifting to SW Monday night.  Wind gusts of 25-30+ mph are possible.

Tuesday (November 1)

The month of November should open on a quiet and mild note with no rain or snow expected.  Highs will be in the 40s and 50s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind north at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Mostly cloudy to partly sunny.  High 43 to 48.  Wind north to northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  45
Low:   30

Sunrise Sunday:  7:49 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   5:55 PM CDT

Tim

Record/near record warmth today in southern Minnesota. Clouds stick around this weekend; Halloween rain chance (Thunder?)

/Issued 4:14 PM CDT, Friday, October 28, 2016/

This was the setup for today, October 28, 2016 per 12z European model.  Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Low pressure moving east out of the Dakotas with unseasonably warm temperatures/SW winds occurring ahead of that low across western and southern Minnesota and for areas farther south.

3 PM, October 28, 2016 – The dots on the image below shows where record high temperatures were broken, tied or within 3 degrees of tying late this afternoon.  Source:  http://coolwx.com/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Saturday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A very warm late October day in parts of Minnesota as high temperatures climbed into the mid 60s and low/mid 70s in much of western, central and southern Minnesota while late afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from +18 to +20 degrees Celsius which is impressive for October 28th.

The Northland never got into that type of warmth today thanks to lingering widespread low clouds along with patchy fog, haze and drizzle — Highs in our area were generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s with the warmest temperatures found west and south of Highway 2, these temperatures  although cooler than what occurred farther south are still above average though for late October.

An area of low pressure averaging 1004mb was over northwest Minnesota/southeast Manitoba Province at 3 PM today with a warm front and cold front to the west and south of our area.  There has been some showers today in far northern Minnesota with around 0.25″ of rain reported at both Grand Marais and Grand Portage in the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast…

Tonight (October 28)

Generally mostly cloudy sky conditions will carry over into tonight although there is a chance for some breaks in the clouds from time to time.  Low pressure along with its warm front and cold front will move quickly toward the east out of western Minnesota with this system exiting the Northland to the N/E by late this evening.  Low temperatures will be in the 40s with 30s possible in far northern Minnesota.  It’ll be breezy tonight as winds turn to the west or northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Saturday (October 29)

High pressure builds south/east out of the northern Plains but a disturbance moving east out of the northern Plains could bring some rain showers to southern portions of the area during the afternoon/evening hours, and there could also be a few showers or some drizzle that develops later in the afternoon near Lake Superior — Mostly cloudy skies will continue on Saturday with highs in the 40s and 50s.  Mostly cloudy for Saturday night but there could be some pockets of clearing that develop during the night.  Lows will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Winds on Saturday will be out of the north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Extended Forecast…

Sunday (October 30)

Dry on Sunday with highs in the 40s.  Lows Sunday night will be in the 30s and 40s.  The next low pressure system that will affect us moves into the western High Plains Sunday night — Scattered rain showers could develop and pass through parts of the Northland late Sunday night thanks to a warm advection pattern.

Monday (October 31)

An area of low pressure is forecast to move northeast out of the western Dakotas on Halloween.  Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin on Monday as this system moves through.  Highs on Monday are expected to be in the 40s and 50s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 48.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Saturday…  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy drizzle possible later in the day.  High 48 to 52.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  45
Low:   30

Sunrise Saturday:  7:47 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   5:57 PM CDT

Tim

Past November snowfall totals (1950-2015) for Duluth included in this post. Gray skies but mild on Friday with highs in the 50s and 60s (70s in southern Minnesota)

/Issued 4:52 PM CDT, Thursday, October 27, 2016/

Not a lot of precipitation in Duluth despite an active weather pattern that will be in place into early next week.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Friday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

1950-2015 November snowfall totals for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

Note:  Average November snowfall total is 13.7″ ; Above average years in bold.

1950:  10.6″
1951:    2.7″
1952:    7.3″
1953:    4.4″
1954:    7.4″
1955:  22.4″
1956:  17.0″
1957:  12.6″
1958:    3.6″
1959:    7.4″

1960:  14.8″
1961:    2.8″
1962:    1.8″
1963:    1.6″
1964:    8.6″
1965:  25.9″
1966:    7.6″
1967:    4.2″
1968:  21.8″
1969:    9.1″

1970:  16.8″
1971:    6.4″
1972:    6.7″
1973:    7.6″
1974:    4.5″
1975:  25.7″
1976:    2.7″
1977:  16.0″
1978:  10.1″
1979:    6.0″

1980:    1.6″
1981:  12.5″
1982:  16.0″
1983:  37.7″
1984:    2.4″
1985:  34.1″
1986:    8.2″
1987:    5.8″
1988:  24.3″
1989:    8.4″

1990:    5.1″
1991:  50.1″
1992:  29.4″
1993:  28.5″
1994:  15.5″
1995:  20.4″
1996:  15.9″
1997:  16.9″
1998:  15.7″
1999:    6.2″

2000:  17.5″
2001:  11.4″
2002:    4.3″
2003:  19.4″
2004:    1.4″
2005:  11.4″
2006:    4.0″
2007:    6.0″
2008:    3.2″

2009:    1.1″
2010:  27.9″
2011:    3.7″
2012:  10.1″
2013:    4.7″
2014:  16.4″
2015:    4.4″

Since 1950:

*24 Novembers have had above average snowfall.

*The 90s Novembers produced some epic snowfall totals with 8 of them having above average snowfall.

Note:  An early look at this upcoming November shows that it shouldn’t be very snowy in Duluth, in fact snow totals look quite similar to last November which had just 4.4″ of snow.

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A mild day across the Northland with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees which is roughly 5 degrees above average for October 27th, not abnormally warm but still a little bit above average for this time of year.  Mostly cloudy skies continued today but there have been some holes in the clouds which allowed for a little bit of sun from time to time.  Winds today were out of the south or southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast…

Tonight (October 27)

An impressive shot of warm air advection occurs tonight as 850mb temperatures early this evening range from 0 to +8 degrees Celsius from NE-SW in our area but by daybreak H85 temperatures climb to between +10 and +18 degrees Celsius.

Mostly cloudy skies will continue tonight and there could be some patchy drizzle or fog but this doesn’t look very widespread.  Low temperatures mainly in the 40s with 30s possible in a few locations.  Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 15 mph.

Friday (October 28)

A mild day but it would be even warmer if not for the lingering cloud cover.  An area of low pressure will move east across far northern North Dakota Friday, passing across far northern Lake Superior late Friday night — A warm front and cold front connected to this low will sweep through the Northland on Friday.  Most of the area should remain dry tomorrow but a few rain showers are possible mostly over far northern Minnesota and in the Arrowhead.

Highs on Friday will be in the 50s and 60s with cooler temperatures along the North Shore of Lake Superior.  Lows Friday night in the 40s to around 50 degrees.

It’ll be breezy on Friday with S/SW winds turning W/NW Friday night; Wind speeds ranging from 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph possible.

.Extended Forecast…

Saturday (October 29)

Low pressure moves into eastern Canada while high pressure builds south/east into the northern Plains.  Could be some rain showers in parts of the Northland on Saturday – At the moment these showers look most likely over southern areas and also over the Arrowhead.

Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows Saturday night in the 30s.

Sunday (October 30)

Dry as high pressure will be in control of our weather.  Highs will be in the 40s.

Note:  Low pressure is still forecast to lift northeast out of the western High Plains on Halloween (31st)  Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two are possible on Monday in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as this system moves through.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 40 to 45.  Wind south at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Considerable cloudiness.  High 55 to 60.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  46
Low:   31

Sunrise Friday:  7:46 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   5:58 PM CDT

Tim