Dreary weather continues; Little bit of snow possible on Sunday

/Issued 5:20 PM CST, Wednesday, November 30, 2016/

Source:  18z GFS model; http://weather.cod.edu/

Temperatures from early this afternoon.

An active week for severe weather.  Storm reports maps from November 27-30, 2016.  Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Red dots=Tornado reports
Blue dots=Wind reports
Green dots=Hail reports

The last few days have certainly turned a lot more active in terms of severe weather in parts of the U.S.

Warnings map for the U.S. for this week but not including today’s warnings.

Red polygons=Tornado warning
Dark blue polygons=Severe thunderstorm warning

Source:  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/week.html

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Thursday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/


Weather Tidbits:

*Record Low Pressure for North Dakota in November – On November 28th the barometer dropped to 28.77″ of mercury at Gwinner; Also 28.78″ of mercury at Fargo and Wahpeton.  The previous record low North Dakota pressure 28.90″ of mercury on November 17, 1958 at Fargo.  Source:  https://twitter.com/NWSBismarck

*High temperature of -21 F at Fairbanks, Alaska on November 29th ended a record 658 day stretch with highs above -10 F.  The previous record was 346 days from December 17, 2000 through November 27, 2001.  Source:  https://twitter.com/NWSFairbanks

*5 deaths reported from tornadoes in the Southeast U.S. on Tuesday – https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/11/30/last-nights-deadly-tornadoes-were-a-big-uptick-in-an-otherwise-quiet-season/?utm_term=.be0229ae4971

*45 preliminary filtered tornado reports and 213 severe weather reports in the U.S. from November 27th-30th.  Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

*Today is the 9th day in a row with a high temperature 32 F or warmer at Duluth, Minnesota (November 22-30)

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

More gloomy weather today with overcast skies along with occasional light rain, drizzle and wet snow.  Highs were in the 30s with north or northeast winds at 10 to 15 mph.  Surface map late this afternoon had a broad area of low pressure covering the Great Lakes.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast…

Tonight (November 30)

Light rain, wet snow and drizzle will linger tonight under mostly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 20s to lower 30s with north or northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday (December 1)

Will start off the month of December with cooler temperatures compared to recent days but highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s is still a few degrees above average for this time of year.  Skies will remain mostly cloudy with some snow showers or flurries possible.  Lows Thursday night will mainly be in the 20s.  Winds will be out of the north or northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Synopsis:  Low pressure will continue to move slowly off to the east through Thursday night while high pressure builds south into the northern Plains.

.Extended Forecast…

Friday and Saturday (December 2-3)

Looks mainly dry at the moment for Friday and Saturday with highs close to the 30 degree mark both days with lows Friday night in the 20s to around 30 degrees — So still mild as we open December with the overnight lows well above the average.

Note:  There is a chance for a little bit of snow in the Northland on Sunday (4th) as a low pressure disturbance approaches from the W/NW.

Note:  The computer models have been waffling around a lot for next week in whether or not there will be a storm, and if there is what the track will be.  There is potential for a decent system sometime between December 6th-10th but the track and strength is very uncertain right now.  A lot of snow or rain is possible where ever this storm decides to go.  Stay tuned!

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Rain showers and drizzle.  Some wet snow also possible away from Lake Superior.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 29 to 34.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 29 to 34.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  27
Low:   14

Sunrise Thursday:  7:33 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim

December 2016 Long Range Outlook for Duluth, Minnesota

/Issued November 30, 2016/

CFSv2 temperature forecast for the month of December.

Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Blue colors=Below normal temperatures
Orange colors=Above normal temperatures
White=Near normal temperatures

Minnesota:  Generally near normal to slightly above normal temperatures is what the CFS model is forecasting.

Wisconsin:  Slightly above normal temperatures statewide.













CFSv2 Precipitation forecast for the month of December.

Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Most of Minnesota and Wisconsin is in slightly above normal precipitation totals in December per CFS model.

Green=Above normal precipitation
Yellow=Below normal precipitation
White=Near normal precipitation














December averages at Duluth, Minnesota:

Base Period:  1981-2010

Temperature:  14.8 degrees
Precipitation:  1.21″
Snowfall:  17.7″

Normal high on the 1st:  27 degrees; falling to 14 degrees on the 31st
Average low on the 1st:  14 degrees; falling to 3 degrees on the 31st
Warmest December on record:  32.7 degrees in 1877
Coldest December on record:  1.8 degrees in 1983
Wettest December on record:  3.89″ in 1879
Snowiest December on record:  44.3″ in 1950
Driest December on record:  0.07″ in 1905
Least snowiest December on record:  0.9″ in 1905
Base period:  1981-2010
Average number of days with a subzero low temperature:  10
Average number of days with at least 0.1″ of snowfall:  13
Astronomical data for December
Sunrise on the 1st:  7:33 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:53 AM CST
Sunset on the 1st:  4:22 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st:  4:30 PM CST
Outlook for December:
*Temperature:  Around 18 degrees or ~3.0 degrees above average

*Number of subzero nights:  4-7


Summary:  Although I’m still calling for above average temperatures in December, it’s highly unlikely will have persistent warmth like we had during most of November — I am expecting a few shots of cold temperatures throughout the month but these cold shots could be transient, meaning they won’t stick around for very long, however, if the colder airmasses linger for a while, then it’s likely that my temperature forecast will bust on the high side.
Snowfall:  Slightly above average in December.  I’m thinking will end up with around 20″ of snow, the average is 17.7″.

Summary:  Multiple storm systems should cross the U.S. during the month of December, as is always the case, the storm tracks will be crucial in determining how much or how little snow we get here in Duluth, there is also a chance that one or two of these systems take an unfavorable track which could lead to precipitation type issues (Rain or Ice instead of all snow)

Tim

Severe weather tonight in parts of the Mid-South; 30s and 40s below zero this morning in parts of Alaska; Mild temps, rain/snow showers in the Northland into Wed; Looks colder next week

/Issued 3:50 PM CST, Tuesday, November 29, 2016/

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Severe weather is expected through tonight in parts of the mid-south.  Source:  http://www.weather.gov/meg/

Lots of snow the past few days in central and western North Dakota.  Source:  http://www.weather.gov/bis/

Colder temperatures still showing up on the long range computer models for next week, especially mid to late next week.  Image below is from today’s 12z European Ensemble model; 850mb temperature anomaly forecast valid for Friday, December 9, 2016.  Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Blue/Purple colors=Below average temperatures

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Wednesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Weather Tidbits:

*Minnesota’s annual precipitation record has been broken at Waseca, Minnesota (South Central part of the state)  Precipitation total 53.78″ as of November 28th.  The old record was 53.52″ at St. Frances in 1991.  Source, NWS Twin Cities, Minnesota.

*2nd warmest low temperature on record for November 28th at Duluth, Minnesota.  Low temperature 37 degrees.  The warmest minimum temperature on record for November 28th is 38 degrees set in 1962 and 1913.

-41 F this morning, November 29th at Bettles, Alaska.  Source, NWS Fairbanks, Alaska.

-31 F this morning, November 29th at Fairbanks, Alaska.  This ends a 624 day stretch of temperatures above -30 F (The second longest on record)  Note:  The record longest is 642 days from February 24th, 1976 through November 26th, 1977.  Source, NWS Fairbanks, Alaska.

Gatlinburg, Tennessee Fire Update:  http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/2016/11/29/30-gatlinburg-structures-fire-tema/94584554/

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

There’s a broad area of low pressure averaging 992mb extending from west central Minnesota to northwest Lake Superior.  Mostly cloudy skies covered the Northland today with pockets of light rain, drizzle and wet snow.  Highs were mainly in the 30s with south or north/northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast…

Tonight through Wednesday night (November 29-30)

Surface and upper level areas of low pressure will continue to affect the Northland’s weather through tomorrow night as they move slowly off to the east.  Generally mostly cloudy skies can be expected with occasional light snow, rain and drizzle.  No major snow accumulations are expected in our area but there could be just enough to slicken up the roads in some parts of the Northland.

Temperatures remain mild as we close out the month of November with lows tonight and Wednesday night in the 30s, maybe a few 20s in a few locations.  Highs on Wednesday in the 30s to around 40.  Winds tonight out of the south or north with a north, northeast or northwest wind tomorrow and tomorrow night — Wind speeds in the 10 to 20 mph range through Wednesday night.

.Extended Forecast…

Thursday (December 1)

Will finally start to get rid of the pesky storm system that has been with us the past few days, still could be dealing with a few snow showers or flurries on Thursday otherwise it’ll be dry with highs in the 20s and 30s, lows Thursday night in the 20s.

Friday (December 2)

Mainly dry with highs close to 30.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Patchy drizzle with some light rain or wet snow also possible at times.  Low 33 to 36.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming northeast late.

.Wednesday…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain or snow showers.  High 36 to 39.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  28
Low:   14

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:32 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim

Rainfall totals over 1" along the North Shore of Lake Superior today; Occasional showers tonight; Rain and snow showers Tue-Thu; Much colder temperatures next week

/Issued 4:45 PM CST, Monday, November 28, 2016/

Cold weather fans rejoice! Much colder temperatures, possibly arctic air invades the western U.S. and spreads south/east next week.  The map below shows the 850mb temperature anomalies for Thursday, December 8, 2016 per 12z Euro Ensemble model.  Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Note:  Right now it looks like high temperatures will be in the teens and 20s in the Northland with lows in the single digits with subzero lows possible — The core of the coldest temperatures look to setup to our west, over the Rockies and northern Plains (Subject to change)  Timing of this looks to be from the middle of next week into next weekend (Dec 7-11 time frame, give or take)

Note:  If we can build up a snow pack prior to the middle of next week, then it would likely end up colder in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Blue and purple colors=Below average temperatures

Upper Midwest radar loop through 4:30 PM CST today, November 28, 2016.  Source:  http://www.intellicast.com/

Green=Rain
Blue=Snow

A textbook storm over the northern Plains and upper Midwest today.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

A zoomed in (1 KM visible satellite loop) from today.  A beautiful looking storm!  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

24-hour lightning map.  Source:  http://www.lightningmaps.org/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Tuesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Rainfall reports for November 27-28, 2016
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu/

Note:  Totals listed below are thru 4 PM today, November 28th.

Grand Marais, MN:  1.88″
Grand Portage, MN:  1.71″
Isabella, MN:  1.46″
Two Harbors, MN:  1.16″
Silver Bay, MN:  1.12″

Moose Lake, MN:  0.94″
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.71″
Hinckley, MN:  0.68″
Hill City, MN:  0.64″
Grand Rapids, MN:  0.53″

Brainerd, MN:  0.52″
McGregor, MN:  0.45″
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  0.44″
Saginaw, MN:  0.43″
Siren, WI:  0.37″

Orr, MN:  0.31″
Littlefork, MN:  0.30″
Glidden, WI:  0.28″
International Falls, MN:  0.25″
Clam Lake, WI:  0.24″

Superior, WI:  0.24″
Washburn, WI:  0.21″
Hayward, WI:  0.20″
Phillips, WI:  0.20″
Ashland, WI:  0.12″
Solon Springs, WI:  0.11″

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A deep area of low pressure averaging 976mb was located near Fargo, North Dakota at 3 PM today.  Note:  at 1 PM today, the pressure was down to 28.80″ (975mb) at Moorhead, Minnesota, very impressive!

Since were on the east side of this big storm, warm temperatures and rain were the highlights in our area while wind and snow occurred west of the low across parts of North Dakota.

Highs in the Northland were in the upper 30s and 40s today with even a few locations making it into the low 50s.  Winds today were out of the east or southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast…

Tonight (November 28)

Low pressure will remain near the northeast South Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and western Minnesota intersection tonight.  The central pressure will come up a bit, rising from ~976mb this evening to ~985 by daybreak.

Occasional rain and showers will continue tonight in the Northland.  Still can’t rule out a thunderstorm either especially during the evening.  Low temperatures will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees.  Winds will be out of the east, northeast or south at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday (November 29)

A couple areas of low pressure along with an upper level low will remain over the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes on Tuesday — Occasional showers will persist.  Some of the rain could mix with or change to snow from time to time in parts of the area but no accumulation of snow is expected.

Highs on Tuesday will be in the 30s to lower 40s with lows Tuesday night mainly in the 30s.  Winds will be out of the south, east or north at 10 to 20 mph.

.Extended Forecast…

Wednesday and Thursday (November 30-December 1)

More snow and rain showers are expected both Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level low pressure system moves very slowly off to the east.  Could be a light snowfall accumulation in parts of the Northland during the middle of the week but no significant accumulations or travel impacts are expected the way it looks now.

High temperatures in the 30s to around 40 on Wednesday, mainly in the 30s on Thursday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain showers.  Low 35 to 38.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest toward daybreak.

.Tuesday…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional rain showers.  Rain could mix with some wet snow away from Lake Superior.  High 38 to 40.  Wind south to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  28
Low:   15

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:31 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

Gusty east winds near Lake Superior with rain, drizzle and some fog through Monday; Winter storm in parts of North Dakota

/Issued 4:20 PM CST, Sunday, November 27, 2016/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

Black line on the map=Storm track through Monday morning.

-Winter storm gets going later tonight to the NW of the surface low in central-western North Dakota/

-Rain east of the surface low later tonight.

-A risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this evening in parts of the central Plains.

12z NAM 500mb temperature forecast valid for Monday afternoon.  Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Monday’s thunderstorm forecast.  Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Dense Fog Advisory continues this evening in parts of northeast and east central Minnesota.  More information at this link http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dlh&wwa=dense%20fog%20advisory

The same storm that gives the Northland rain will bring a signficant amount of snow to parts of North Dakota through Wednesday.  More information about these winter weather headlines at the following links.

Winter Storm Warning http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bis&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

Winter Weather Advisory http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bis&wwa=winter%20weather%20advisory

Expected impacts.  Source: http://www.weather.gov/bis/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Monday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Temperature departure map for the week of November 20th.  Source:  http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/

Near to above average temperatures last week across northeast Minnesota and in most of northwest Wisconsin.

Precipitation departure map for the week of November 20th.  Source:  http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/

A few pockets with above average precipitation last week in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, elsewhere precip totals finished near to below average for the week.

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

November 20-26, 2016

High temperatures:

11/20:  27 F/-6 degrees below normal
11/21:  30 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/22:  32 F/Normal
11/23:  34 F/+3 degrees above normal
11/24:  35 F/+4 degrees above normal
11/25:  35 F/+5 degrees above normal
11/26:  37 F/+7 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

11/20:  10 F/-10 degrees below normal
11/21:  20 F/+1 degree above normal
11/22:  27 F/+9 degrees above normal
11/23:  31 F/+13 degrees above normal
11/24:  30 F/+13 degrees above normal
11/25:  32 F/+15 degrees above normal
11/26:  30 F/+14 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.54″
Normal:  0.45″
Departure:  +0.09″ above normal

Weather Summary for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Widespread dense fog today in northern and eastern Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin, but farther east into northwest Wisconsin skies were partly to mostly sunny this afternoon.  Highs today were in the 30s but in the mid 40s around the Hayward Lakes area thanks to the sunshine.  Winds were out of the east or southeast at 10 to 15 mph with occasional higher gusts.

Forecast Discussion for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

.Short Term Forecast…

Tonight (November 27)

Low pressure over the western High Plains this afternoon will lift northeast into eastern portions of South Dakota tonight — The central pressure of the low will deepen from ~990mb to ~977mb by daybreak.

Fog and drizzle will persist tonight, and will also throw rain into the mix as it spreads south to north across the Northland later this evening and during the overnight hours.  There could be a rumble or two of thunder embedded in the rain tonight but the potential for thunder is pretty low for tonight.

Low temperatures will be in the 30s with east or southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Monday (November 28)

A deep area of low pressure averaging 975-985mb will spin over eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota and far western Minnesota on Monday.

Areas of fog and drizzle with periods of rain can be expected in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Isolated thunderstorms are also expected on Monday with a corridor of elevated CAPE approaching 100-200 j/kg along with very steep mid level lapse rates of 8.0-8.5 c/km moving over parts of the area.

Colder air aloft and near the surface could cause the rain to mix with or change to wet snow in parts of the Northland early Tuesday morning.

Highs on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s with lows Monday night in the 30s to near 40 degrees.

East or southeast winds on Monday at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.  Winds Monday night will be out of the east, northeast or southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Extended Forecast…

Tuesday and Wednesday (November 29-30)

Occasional snow and rain showers are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as a large low pressure system moves very slowly through the Upper Midwest — Shouldn’t be any major travel issues as the snow that does fall only accumulates to a dusting or so the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Dense Fog Advisory for Duluth*
Timing:  Until 9 PM CST this evening

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Fog and drizzle.  Rain developing before Midnight with rain overnight.  Low 34 to 38.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Monday…  Breezy.  Fog and drizzle possible.  Occasional showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  High 40 to 45.  Wind east to southeast at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  29
Low:  15

Sunrise Monday:  7:30 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim