Turning colder the next few days; Some snow possible this weekend; A little more snow is possible Feb 6th-8th

/Issued 5:04 PM CST, Tuesday, January 31, 2017/

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Wednesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Snowfall reports for January 30-31, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Libby, MN 5 SSE:  6.7″
Palisade, MN:  5.5″
Moose Lake, MN:  5.1″
Coleraine, MN 8 NNW:  5.0″
Grand Rapids, MN 7 SSW:  5.0″
Cloquet, MN 1 N:  4.5″
Chisholm, MN:  4.5″
Hermantown, MN 3 NE:  4.5″ (National Weather Service total)
Taft, MN 1 E:  4.5″
Butternut, WI 6 SW:  4.2″
Superior, WI 3 SE:  4.1″
Lakeside, WI 3 WSW:  4.1″
Wright, MN 3 ENE:  4.0″
Spooner, WI 2 SE:  3.5″
Crosslake, MN 2 SW:  3.4″
Maple, WI 1 WSW:  3.4″
Clam Lake, WI 3 WNW:  3.4″
Cook, MN:  3.0″
Ashland, WI:  2.9″
Lutsen, MN 4 ENE:  2.5″
Hovland, MN:  2.4″
Knife River, MN 2 NE:  2.3″
Herbster, WI:  2.3″
Silver Bay, MN:  2.1″
Embarrass, MN:  2.0″
Hoyt Lakes, MN 1 ENE:  2.0″
International Falls, MN 1 S:  2.0″

February climate normals for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)
Base period:  1981-2010

Temperature:  15.1 degrees
Snowfall:  12.4″
Precipitation:  0.81″

Warmest February on record:  31.3 degrees in 1877
Coldest February on record:  -2.2 degrees in 1936

Snowiest February on record:  33.9″ in 1939
Least snowiest February on record:  1.0″ in 1896

Wettest February on record:  4.24″ in 1922
Driest February on record:  0.10″ in 1896

Normal high on the 1st:  20 degrees
Normal high on the 28th:  28 degrees

Normal low on the 1st:  2 degrees
Normal low on the 28th:  11 degrees

Average number of days with at least 0.1″ snowfall:  10
Average number of days with a subzero low temperature:  10

Note:  February 2016 climate stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  17.3 degrees
Departure:  +2.2 degrees above normal

9 subzero nights
Departure:  -1 below normal

Total snowfall:  12.2″
Departure:  -0.2″ below normal

13 days with snowfall (0.1″ or greater)
Departure:  +3 above normal

Total precipitation:  0.83″
Departure:  +0.02″ above normal

Astronomical data for February

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:32 AM CST
Sunrise on the 28th:  6:50 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  5:12 PM CST
Sunset on the 28th:  5:52 PM CST

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Monday’s low pressure system which brought snow to the Northland has moved into the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon but a cold front is in the process of moving south out of Ontario Province with much colder temperatures sitting north of the border today with late afternoon temperatures in the single digits and teens along with -12 to -18 C 850mb temperatures.  South of this cold front it was a very mild day as we close out the month of January — Highs were in the mid 20s to low/mid 30s.  Skies were partly sunny to mostly cloudy and there’s been a few flurries or snow showers passing through parts of the area.

A cold front will sweep through the Northland this evening with scattered snow showers and flurries.  It will be turning much colder late tonight with cold temperatures then persisting through the end of the week.  Looks mainly dry from Wednesday through Friday and there should be a decent amount of sun the next few days.

Lows tonight will range from the single digits and teens below in northern Minnesota to the single digits and teens above zero in northwest Wisconsin.  Highs Wednesday will be in the single digits and teens with lows Wednesday night in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

The next chance for snow comes this weekend mainly from Saturday into early Sunday — This doesn’t look like a real big snow event at the moment with accumulations of around 1 or 2 inches possible.

There is another chance for snow sometime during the February 6th-8th time frame, this one could be a little more significant in parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region but there’s plenty of time for things to change.  Stay tuned.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Colder.  Breezy.  A few snow showers and flurries.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 3 to 7.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Wednesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 7 to 12.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:32 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:12 PM CST

Tim

About 1-4 inches of snow reported in the Northland today. Mild on Tuesday with highs near 30; Spits of snow linger tonight-Tue (1" or less of additional accumulation)

/Issued 4:16 PM CST, Monday, January 30, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

Water vapor satellite image from late this afternoon

Low pressure (Red L on map at 4 PM today) Storm track is the red line on map.

Upper midwest radar loop ending at 4 PM CST today.  Source:  http://www.intellicast.com/

Steadier snow is done in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as of late this afternoon but do expect additional snow showers to pass through the area from northwest-southeast through the night.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Tuesday’s high temperature forecast.

Snowfall reports from today, January 30, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Marcell, MN:  4.5″
Cass Lake, MN 1 WNW:  4.3″
Moose Lake, MN:  4.0″
Superior, WI 1 E:  4.0″
Seeley, WI 2 NW:  4.0″
Holyoke, MN 2 E:  3.7″
Duluth, MN 3 NE:  3.6″
Springbrook, WI:  3.5″
Coleraine, MN 8 WNW:  3.0″
Trego, WI 3 NW:  3.0″
Leonidas, MN 3 W:  3.0″
Hermantown, MN 3 NE:  2.8″ (National Weather Service total)
Cloquet, MN:  2.7″
Bruno, MN 3 SSW:  2.5″
Bennett, WI:  2.3″
Two Harbors, MN 1 NW:  1.5″
Washburn, WI 1 W:  1.1″

Link to Minnesota road conditions http://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Link to Wisconsin road conditions http://www.511wi.gov/web/traffic/winterroadconditions

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

It snowed today so that part of the forecast verified nicely.  Snow totals were greatest along and south of Highway 2 with reports of about 2 to 4 inches of snow, while north of Highway 2 snow totals were generally around 2 inches or less.

Today’s system is a potent one with widespread 90-120 meter 12-hour 500mb height falls covering the northern Plains and upper Midwest.  There’s a good baroclinic zone in place this afternoon with 40s covering the southwest half of Minnesota with teens and 20s found over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  The center of the area of low pressure at 3 PM was northwest of Minneapolis and is continuing to dive toward the SE.

Mostly cloudy skies are expected to cover the Northland through Tuesday with some more light snow and flurries but additional snow accumulations should remain in the half inch to one inch range at best.  Roads are snow covered and slippery late this afternoon and they likely will remain that way into Tuesday morning.

Low pressure over east central Minnesota late this afternoon will move over southern Lake Michigan by dawn Tuesday — A secondary low will track through Ontario Province while a cold front drops south and through the Northland on Tuesday.

Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s with highs Tuesday in the upper 20s to low/mid 30s.

Note:  Colder air will move into the area mid to late week with daytime highs in the single digits and teens with lows in the single digits below to single digits above zero.

Could be another light snowfall event this weekend but right now this doesn’t look like much, maybe an inch or two of snow in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers and flurries.  Less than one inch of additional accumulation.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Scattered snow showers and flurries.  High 29 to 34.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:34 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:11 PM CST

Tim

Snow on the way! Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Monday (Updated snowfall map in this post)

/Issued 4:00 PM CST, Sunday, January 29, 2017/

Winter Weather Advisory for Monday for the purple shaded area on map.

Here’s my updated snow accumulation map for Monday’s event.  Snow is forecast to begin in Duluth between 6-9 AM Monday, the heaviest snow is expected during the afternoon-early evening hours.

Note:  There is still a little bit of uncertainty on where the heaviest corridor of snow sets up (3-5″ band) The NAM continues to be farther north compared to the other computer models with the higher snow totals north of Duluth.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Monday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Temperature departure map for the week of January 22nd.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Precipitation departure map for the week of January 22nd.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

January 22-28, 2017

Note:  *=Record temperature for the date

High temperatures:

1/22:  37 F/+18 degrees above normal
1/23:  38 F/+19 degrees above normal
1/24:  32 F/+13 degrees above normal
1/25:  29 F/+10 degrees above normal
1/26:  28 F/+9 degrees above normal
1/27:  31 F/+11 degrees above normal
1/28:  25 F/+5 degrees above normal

Low temperatures:

*1/22:  34 F/+33 degrees above normal
*1/23:  32 F/+31 degrees above normal
1/24:  28 F/+27 degrees above normal
1/25:  24 F/+23 degrees above normal
1/26:  21 F/+20 degrees above normal
1/27:  17 F/+15 degrees above normal
1/28:  16 F/+14 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.03″
Normal:  0.17″
Departure:  -0.14″ below normal

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Scattered snow showers passed through the Northland earlier today with reports of around a half inch of snow with the highest total of 1.0″ occurring at Embarrass, Minnesota.

Mostly cloudy skies with lingering flurries this morning gave way to increasing amounts of sunshine during the afternoon over most of the area, but clouds and snow showers persisted along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northern Wisconsin due to the NW wind blowing over the lake along with the colder temperatures passing over the relatively milder and mainly ice free Lake Superior.

Highs today were in the teens and 20s so certainly cooler than it has been recently.

Clear to partly cloudy skies this evening will allow temperatures to drop into the single digits above to single digits below zero with teens below even possible in far northeast Minnesota — The best chance for subzero lows tonight should remain along and north of Highway 2.

Clouds will be on the increase from NW-SE later in the night as low pressure begins to approach from the NW.  Light snow is forecast to begin in western parts of the Northland after 3 AM.

Snow is likely across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday and Monday evening as low pressure drops southeast from northwest Minnesota to east central Minnesota.  A warm and moist advection pattern east of this low will help to produce snow in our area on Monday, and there will also be some decent lift that’ll pass through parts of the area especially during the afternoon-early evening hours, that is when the heaviest snowfall is forecast to occur.

Travel conditions will deteriorate on Monday with roads becoming snow covered and slippery.  Note:  The morning commute in Duluth may not be too bad, but the late afternoon/evening commute will likely be worse.

Light snow and flurries will likely linger across the area from late Monday night through Tuesday with additional accumulations likely to be around one inch or less.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Winter Weather Advisory*
Timing:  9 AM Monday until 9 PM CST Monday

.Tonight…  Mostly clear during the evening, increasing cloudiness after midnight.  Low 1 to 6.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming variable at around 10 mph late.

.Monday…  Snow developing between 6-9 AM.  Snow during the afternoon.  High 21 to 26.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday night…  Snow into the early evening hours followed by flurries and light snow showers late.  Total snowfall accumulation of 3 to 5 inches.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Monday:  7:35 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:09 PM CST

Tim

A couple inches of snow on the way for Monday. Cooler temperatures tonight and Sunday with a few flurries

/Issued 6:06 PM CST, Saturday, January 28, 2017/

Here’s my preliminary snowfall accumulation map for Monday and Monday night.

Should have a fairly impressive temperature gradient over Minnesota on Monday with temperatures approaching 40 degrees (Possibly into the 40s)  across the southwest half of Minnesota while 20s cover northern Minnesota — Snow will develop on Monday thanks in part to this temperature contrast that’ll be in place.

Lake Effect Snow Advisory in effect for Iron County in northwest Wisconsin.

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Sunday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

A breezy day as west or northwest winds increased to 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts otherwise not a bad late January day with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with a few flurries.  Highs were generally in the 20s so still slightly above average for this time of year.

There will be a cold front draped over the Northland tonight and Sunday morning, this front will then push a little more to the west/south Sunday afternoon.  A few flurries are possible in our area tonight and tomorrow morning with mainly dry weather expected Sunday afternoon/night.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected through Sunday.  Lows tonight will be in the single digits and teens with highs Sunday in the teens and 20s.  Lows Sunday night will range from around zero in far northeast Minnesota to around 20 toward the Brainerd Lakes.

Lake effect snow showers are likely along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin through Sunday evening thanks to a favorable N/NW wind direction and cold air moving over Lake Superior — Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected over Iron County including the cities of Gile, Upson and Hurley where a Lake Effect Snow Advisory is in effect through 3 PM CST Sunday.  Expect snow covered roads and reduced visibility in the snowbelt region in Iron County.

A clipper system is still expected to affect the Northland on Monday.  Low pressure will track southeast into north central Minnesota Monday afternoon, then will exit north central Minnesota to the south/east Monday night.  Snow should accompany this low as it passes through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  A general 1-4 inches of snow accumulation looks likely at the moment with the highest snow totals of 3 to 4 inches setting up in portions of north central and east central Minnesota including the Twin Ports and also in parts of northwest Wisconsin based on the expected track of the low per today’s model runs.  There could also be some lake enhanced snow on Monday along the North Shore of Lake Superior as a S/SE wind develops.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few flurries possible.  Low 11 to 14.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few flurries possible mainly during the morning.  High 14 to 19.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Sunday:  7:36 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:08 PM CST

Tim

Winter roars back this weekend, just kidding. Blustery and a little cooler with a few flakes this weekend; A few inches of snow possible on Monday-early Tuesday

/Issued 5:02 PM CST, Friday, January 27, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Saturday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  http://graphical.weather.gov/

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

What a nice day, and sunshine even made a rare appearance in most of the Northland today.  Highs were in the low to mid 30s around Lake Superior and in most of east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with 20s common farther north.

NW flow is in place and will remain in place through the weekend.  It will be cooler through Sunday but nothing arctic, in fact temperatures will still be above average as we near the end of January.

Skies are forecast to become mostly cloudy tonight with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies then expected for Saturday and Sunday.

A cold front dives south out of Ontario Province tonight, this front will then park itself across the Northland tomorrow before it washes out later this weekend — A few flurries or light snow showers are possible tonight and Saturday but accumulations will be very light, generally around a dusting at best.

N/NW wind and colder air moving over Lake Superior will generate some lake effect snow showers beginning late tonight and lasting through Sunday along the South Shore in northwest Wisconsin.  Snowfall totals of 2-6″ are possible by Sunday in Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Becoming mostly cloudy.  A few flurries or light snow showers possible late.  Low 18 to 23.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday…  Breezy.  A few flurries or light snow showers possible.  Mostly cloudy with some clearing at times.  High 23 to 27.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  20
Low:     2

Sunrise Saturday:  7:37 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   5:06 PM CST

Tim