Light snow continues tonight; Cooler temperatures Wed-Fri; Warming up this weekend (Highs in the 40s)

/Issued 5:48 PM CST, Tuesday, February 28, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

No real surprise that there is a potential for a severe thunderstorm outbreak including some tornadoes tonight in the white outlined area on the map — The image below shows the upper level wind speeds from Tuesday morning per 12z European model.  Very strong winds over the southwest U.S. with another batch of strong winds centered over the upper Midwest — Severe weather potential is in between the two wind maximums.  Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Wednesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

March climate normals for Duluth, Minnesota
Base period:  1981-2010

Normal temperature:  26 degrees
Precipitation:  1.49″
Snowfall:  13.2″

Normal high temperature on the 1st:  29 degrees
Normal high temperature on the 31st:  41 degrees

Normal low temperature on the 1st:  11 degrees
Normal low temperature on the 31st:  24 degrees

Warmest March on record:  39.2 degrees set in 2010
Coldest:  13.5 degrees set in 1923

Snowiest March on record:  48.2″ set in 1917
Least snowiest:  Trace set in 2010

Wettest March on record:  5.12″ set in 1965
Driest:  0.22″ set in 1959

March averages 9 days with snowfall (At least 0.1″ accumulation)

Average number of days with a high temperature of at least 50 F:  3
Average number of subzero days:  3

Astronomical data for March:

Sunrise on the 1st:  6:47 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st:  6:49 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  5:54 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st:  7:36 PM CDT

Note:  Spring forward (Daylight Saving Time) at 2 AM on Sunday, March 12th.

Today is the final day of Meteorological winter 2016-2017.  Below are a few stats from this winter at Duluth, Minnesota.  More stats in the days ahead.

*3 days this month with a high temperature in the 50s — This is an all-time record for the month of February.  The previous record was 2 days which was set in 1981.  Note:  Records go back to 1874.

*22 days this winter with a subzero low temperature; Last winter had 19 subzero days.  The December through February average is 34.  Two winters in a row that finished well below average.

*50.2″ of snow this winter (May add a bit more to that total before midnight) Snowfall this winter is slightly above the average of 49.5″.

*The winter of 2016-2017 will end up colder than last winter but will still be well above average!  Possibly in the top 10 list for warmest winters on record.

Preliminary snowfall reports from February 28, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Beroun, MN 5 NE:  3.2″
Cornucopia, WI:  2.7″
Cloquet, MN:  2.5″
Holyoke, MN 2 E:  2.0″
Duluth, MN (Official NWS total)  1.9″ thru 2:15 PM today
Superior, WI:  1.3″
Beaver Bay, MN:  1.0″

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

It’s been an interesting day with different types of weather over the Northland today.  Will start off in northern Minnesota, here it’s been a mostly sunny and dry afternoon with temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s.  Farther south, it’s been a totally different type of day as a band of light snow with pockets of moderate to heavy snow affecting portions of east central Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin — Snow totals underneath this band have generally been in the 1 to around 4 inch range through 4 PM today.  Highs in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin were mainly in the 30s today, and there has been some rain and sleet mixed in with the snow at times in far southern portions of the area.

Light snow is forecast to continue most of tonight in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin while it remains dry across northern Minnesota.  Quite a range in overnight lows from around 0 and in the single digits in northern Minnesota to the 20s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Note:  Additional snowfall of about 1 to 3 inches is possible tonight in portions of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Roads which may have been wet most of the day could become snow, slush and ice covered tonight as temperatures drop.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies on the way for Wednesday with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.  There is a chance for some light snow early tomorrow morning in parts of northwest Wisconsin with another chance for snow showers and flurries spreading southeast across the Northland late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night.  Snowfall should remain less than an inch.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Light snow.  Additional accumulation around one inch.  Total event accumulation of 2 to 3 inches.  Low 16 to 21.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 26 to 31.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  29
Low:  11

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:48 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   5:55 PM CST

Tim

A little sloppy late tonight-Tuesday with some wet snow, sleet and rain. Low risk for a few severe t-storms on Tuesday as far north as southern Wisconsin

/Issued 4:53 PM CST, Monday, February 27, 2017/

Tuesday is the final day of Meteorological winter 2016-2017, it’s only fitting that will get a minor snow/slop event (Seems like that’s happened more times than not this winter, a minor snow event that is)

An active next few days with severe thunderstorms possible through Wednesday — Enhanced and Slight risks for severe thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday (Orange and Yellow shaded areas on the two maps below)  Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Tuesday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Quite cold early this morning in parts of the Northland as low temperatures bottomed out in the single digits above to single digits below zero with Cotton, Minnesota the cold spot with a morning low of -10 degrees.  Temperatures warmed up nicely this afternoon with highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s with low to mid 40s from Hinckley to Siren, north to Solon Springs and south to Hayward (Little to no snow cover in that area)

There were some flurries and light snow showers that moved through parts of the area this morning otherwise it was a dry Monday under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies.

Tonight and Tuesday will feature a couple areas of low pressure tracking east or northeast through the northern and central Plains and upper Midwest while an upper trough over the northern Rockies this afternoon heads into the upper Midwest by Wednesday — Overall its a messy surface pattern with the multiple lows in place instead of just one single low pressure system.

Light snow develops tonight over western-northern portions of the Northland with a possibility for a light rain, sleet and snow mix for east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Snow chances continue Tuesday over northern Minnesota with snow, rain or perhaps some sleet farther south from east central Minnesota through northwest Wisconsin.

Note:  Whatever type of precipitation falls through Tuesday should remain on the light side but enough snow or mixed precipitation is expected which will lead to some slick travel conditions in some parts of the Northland beginning later tonight and continuing into Tuesday.

There will be a nice temperature gradient over the area into Tuesday with lows tonight in the single digits and teens in far northern Minnesota to the 20s and 30s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Highs on Tuesday will range from the 20s in far northern Minnesota to the 40s in far southern areas with 30s in between.

Low pressure will exit off to the east on Wednesday but a lingering upper trough over the area will likely lead to some additional snow showers and flurries.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior 

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow, sleet or freezing rain possible after midnight.  Low 26 to 31.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Occasional light snow.  Some rain or drizzle also possible.  Total snowfall of 1 to 2 inches.  High 31 to 35.  Wind northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  28
Low:   11

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:49 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   5:53 PM CST

Tim

Little bit of snow possible late tonight-Mon AM (30s and even some 40s Mon PM) More snow or mixed precip Mon night-Tue. Recap of last night’s snow event, and some winter stats for Duluth in this post

/Issued 5:32 PM CST, Sunday, February 26, 2017/

The map below shows what areas have the greatest and least potential for around 4 inches of snow from Monday night into Tuesday.  Computer models disagree as to how things will play out for late Monday night into Tuesday so some changes to the map below are possible in the next 24 hours.  Stay tuned.

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Monday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Temperature departure map for the week of February 19.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of February 19.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Snowfall reports from February 25-26, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Breezy Point, MN:  6.0″
Cross Lake, MN:  5.5″
Emily, MN:  5.0″
Nisswa, MN 3 NE:  4.5″
Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  4.2″
Mahtowa, MN 3 N:  4.1″
Canyon, MN:  4.0″
Cloquet, MN:  4.0″
Beaver Bay, MN:  3.8″
Kettle River, MN:  3.8″
Two Harbors, MN 5 NW:  3.6″
Two Harbors, MN:  3.0″
Superior, WI 3 SE:  3.0″
West Duluth, MN:  3.0″
Amnicon Falls State Park, WI:  2.9″
Brainerd, MN 1 NE:  2.8″
Piedmont Heights, MN:  2.6″
Pillager, MN:  2.0″
Brimson, MN:  1.0″

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

February 19-25, 2017

High temperatures:

2/19:  43 F/+18 degrees above normal
2/20:  45 F/+19 degrees above normal
2/21:  50 F/+24 degrees above normal
2/22:  46 F/+20 degrees above normal
2/23:  33 F/+6 degrees above normal
2/24:  21 F/-6 degrees below normal
2/25:  27 F/Normal

Low temperatures:

*=Record warm low temperature broken or tied

2/19:  28 F/+21 degrees above normal
2/20:  *37 F/+29 degrees above normal
2/21:  *33 F/+25 degrees above normal
2/22:  33 F/+24 degrees above normal
2/23:  21 F/+12 degrees above normal
2/24:  13 F/+4 degrees above normal
2/25:  5 F/-5 degrees below normal

Total precipitation:  1.08″
Normal:  0.24″
Departure:  +0.84″ above normal

The final day of Meteorological Winter is on Tuesday (28th)  

Note:  Meteorological winter is the period from December 1st through February 28th.

Winter stats for Duluth, Minnesota thru February 26th.

Total snowfall:  48.1″
Average (Dec-Feb):  49.5″
My forecast:  50-55″

I’ll need ~2 more inches of snow by Tuesday to hit the low end of my predicted 50-55″ winter snowfall total.

Temperature:  18.2 degrees
Average (Dec-Feb)  13.3 degrees

This winter is running nearly +5.0 degrees warmer than average! My forecast was for temperatures to end up around -1.0 degree below average.

By the way here is a link to my winter forecast for Duluth which was made on October 25th http://timsweatherblog.blogspot.com/2016/10/2016-2017-winter-forecast-for-duluth.html

Summary:  My temperature forecast for this winter busted, but I’m happy with my snowfall prediction for this winter, and will see how much snow will add in March and April which goes into the annual total which as of today sits at ~56″.  My annual snowfall forecast total was 85-90″.

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Snow was in the forecast last night, and it did snow, but the amount of snow that fell in parts of the Northland was more than what was forecast.  The area from the Brainerd Lakes to Duluth ended up with between 3 inches and 6 inches of new snow last night with the highest totals reported around the Brainerd area – This band of snow was quite narrow with totals north/south of the heaviest band of snow generally around one inch or less.

A cold front moved through the area this morning and was accompanied by a narrow line of locally heavy snow squalls and gusty winds — Skies this afternoon turned sunny to mostly sunny with temperatures ranging from the upper teens in far northern Minnesota to the 20s over the rest of the area, there were even a few locations sitting at 30 degrees late this afternoon (Hinckley, Siren and Hayward)

Will start with clear to partly cloudy skies over the Northland this evening but clouds will increase during the night with another round of light snow developing after midnight in parts of east central Minnesota (Generally near or south of the Highway 2 corridor)  This area of light snow is then forecast to lift north of the Highway 2 corridor on Monday.  Not expecting much snow late tonight or Monday with accumulations generally less than an inch.  Low temperatures tonight will be in the single digits below to teens above zero.

The cold front which passed through the area earlier today will return as a warm front on Monday.  This warm front will then turn back into a cold front, and that boundary will slide through the Northland from Monday night into Tuesday — A couple different periods of frontogenesis will aid in the development of some precipitation in our area through Tuesday.  There will also be a few areas of low pressure which are forecast to move east/northeast out of the Rockies and central Plains, additional lift will take place as those lows move through.

Temperatures on Monday will warm into the 30s with 40s over southern areas.  Lows Monday night will be in the 20s to lower 30s.  Highs on Tuesday will be in the 20s and 30s.  Note:  Some of the precipitation may fall as rain or drizzle late Monday night or Tuesday mainly over parts of northwest Wisconsin, and there is a chance for light ice accumulations if surface temperatures remain near the freezing mark.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Clear this evening with increasing cloudiness late.  Light snow possible mainly after 4 AM.  Low 8 to 13.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming light and variable late.

.Monday…  Light snow possible early with total snowfall less than one inch.  Mostly cloudy with some breaks in the clouds.  High 30 to 35.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  28
Low:   11

Sunrise Monday:  6:52 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   5:52 PM CST

Tim

Light snow late tonight-Sunday morning; Around 30 degrees Sunday afternoon; 30s and 40s on Monday. Severe weather stats from Friday in this post

/Issued 5:31 PM CST, Saturday, February 25, 2017/

Source:  http://www.weatherbell.com/

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Sunday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

Source:  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/regsci/gis/index.html

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

Partly to mostly cloudy skies were found over the area today with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.  There were a few flurries which passed through parts of the Northland today, and there was also a few hours of very strong winds this morning along the North Shore of Lake Superior, especially from Two Harbors, northeast to Grand Marais with wind gusts of 40+ mph reported close to the lake.

Light snow on the way!  A couple areas of low pressure combined with a cold front and a strengthening disturbance digging SE out of Saskatchewan and Manitoba will go on to produce one or two rounds of snow over parts of the Northland from this evening into mid afternoon Sunday.  Most locations will pick up about a half inch to inch of new snow by Sunday but where the two bands of snow overlap, snow totals could reach 2 or even 3 inches…This looks most likely to occur along or south of the Highway 2 corridor in northeast Minnesota.

The snow will end Sunday afternoon and will be replaced by some sunshine later in the day as high pressure moves into Minnesota.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens and 20s with highs Sunday in the 20s and 30s.  Lows Sunday night will be in the single digits, teens and 20s.

Temperatures will warm into the 30s, possibly even a few 40s on Monday.  Could be some light snow in northern Minnesota with dry weather expected elsewhere.

Another opportunity for some snow or mixed precipitation comes on Tuesday as a disorganized system tracks through the Plains and upper Midwest — Early indications are for about 1 to 4 inches of snow in some parts of the Northland on Tuesday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow developing especially later this evening into the overnight hours.  Low 19 to 24.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Occasional light snow mainly before Noon.  Total snowfall accumulations between late tonight and Sunday morning of 1 to 2 inches possible.  High 27 to 32.  Wind southwest becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  28
Low:   10

Sunrise Sunday:  6:53 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   5:50 PM CST

Tim

Snow continues tonight in parts of northwest Wisconsin (3-5" of snow so far mainly south of Ashland) Dry tomorrow; Light snow possible Saturday night-Sunday AM

/Issued 5:50 PM CST, Friday, February 24, 2017/

Latest NWS winter weather headlines map.

Winter storm warning in pink; Winter weather advisory in purple.  Roads will be snow covered and slippery with reduced visibility due to falling and blowing snow in parts of northwest Wisconsin tonight.

Note:  Total snowfall of 4 to 10 inches will be common especially south and east of Ashland with the higher totals found in the favorable snowbelt region in Ashland and Iron Counties.  Snow totals of only an inch or so are expected farther west from Bayfield to around Hayward.

Link to road conditions in Wisconsin http://www.511wi.gov/web/traffic/winterroadconditions

Link to road conditions in Minnesota http://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Here’s the snow depth map for Minnesota as of Thursday, February 23, 2017.  Note:  The snow depth map updates only once a week on Thursdays so it doesn’t show the new snow that fell last night and today over far southern Minnesota, generally near and south of that dotted yellow line on the map.  Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

A lot of thunderstorm activity since Thursday evening as a strong area of low pressure heads toward the southern Great Lakes this evening.  Some of the thunderstorms that occurred last night in parts of Nebraska, Iowa, far southern Minnesota and the southern half of Wisconsin were accompanied by heavy snow, sleet or freezing rain.  Source:  https://www.lightningmaps.org

Tonight’s low temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov

Saturday’s high temperature forecast.  Source:  https://graphical.weather.gov


Preliminary snowfall reports for February 24, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  Totals listed below are through around 4 PM today

Morse, WI 3 N:  5.5″
Mellen, WI 1 NW:  4.5″
Glidden, WI:  4.0″
Gile, WI:  3.6″
Clam Lake, WI 3 WNW:  3.5″
Winter, WI 2 SSE:  1.5″

Snow depth reports from around the Northland
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  Snow depths as of 6 AM on February 24, 2017

International Falls, MN:  10″
Cook, MN:  10″
Orr, MN 3 E:  9″
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  7″
Cass Lake, MN:  7″
Ely, MN:  7″
Togo, MN:  6″
Grand Portage, MN:  6″
Duluth, MN (Airport)  6″
Embarrass, MN:  5″
Cotton, MN:  4″
Floodwood, MN:  2″

Weather Synopsis for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin

There was a strong area of low pressure located well to the southeast of the Northland late this afternoon.  At 4 PM the surface low of 998mb was over southern Lake Michigan.  This system brought a substantial amount of snow and wind to parts of southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin last night and today while generally light to moderate snow affected parts of northern Wisconsin.

It was a colder day throughout the Northland especially considering how warm it has been lately.  Highs today were in the upper teens to mid 20s with a gusty northerly wind at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Low pressure over southern Lake Michigan late this afternoon will track northeast to northern Lake Huron by dawn — Snow will continue to fall tonight in the southeast portion of northwest Wisconsin, generally along and east of a line from Shell Lake to Ashland with the heavier snowfall further southeast from around Winter and Mellen toward Gile, and south toward Park Falls and Phillips.  The snow is expected to diminish after midnight except along the South Shore where lake effect snow showers should persist overnight.  Elsewhere across the Northland we’re looking at partly to mostly cloudy skies for tonight.

A mix of sun and clouds for Saturday with a chance for lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior as winds will be out of the north or northwest until later in the day.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the single digits and teens with subzero lows possible in far northern Minnesota.  Highs Saturday will mainly be in the 20s.

A dusting of snow remains possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning as a weak system and cold front pass through the area.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Blustery.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 9 to 14.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 24 to 29.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest later in the day.

.Saturday night…  Mostly cloudy.  Light snow possible late with around one inch of accumulation.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  27
Low:  10

Sunrise Saturday:  6:55 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   5:49 PM CST

Tim