Scattered drizzle/showers continue tonight. Warmer and sunnier weather Wed-Thu. East wind returns Fri with rain possible this weekend

/Issued 4:59 PM CDT, Tuesday, May 30, 2017/

Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

18z NAM 3km model valid for Wednesday afternoon

Temperatures and radar from just before 5 PM today (May 30, 2017)

Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

Weather Synopsis

A very cool airmass was over the Northland today.  Late afternoon 850mb temperatures were down to +4C as cold air advection continued in our area today on the west/southwest side of a large upper level low pressure system which covered the Great Lakes and central Canada.  Mostly cloudy skies were common today with lingering showers and drizzle moving southeast across the area.  Highs today were only in the upper 40s to middle 50s, well below average for May 30th.

Note:  Rainfall totals since Monday have ranged from as little as a trace to as much as 0.25 inches over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

One more night of mostly cloudy skies along with some drizzle and rain showers as the upper level low that has been affecting us since this past weekend continues to do so tonight.  Lows will be in the 40s with 30s possible in far northern Minnesota if skies clear out enough during the night.

A change in the weather takes place Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds in which should result in mostly sunny skies in our area for both Wednesday and Thursday.  Warmer temperatures will also occur with highs both days in the 60s and 70s (The warmer day being Thursday) These high temperatures are normal to slightly above the average for the final day of May and first day of June.

Another change in the weather is possible this weekend as low pressure moves east or southeast out of the northern Plains — This system could bring some rain to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Saturday and Sunday along with cooler temperatures and a gusty east wind near Lake Superior.  Note:  There are differences in the computer models in regards to the track of the system this weekend, and the timing of it.  Sunday could end up being the drier day of the two but I wouldn’t bet the farm on that just yet.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers and drizzle.  Low 44 to 48.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday…  Becoming mostly sunny.  Milder.  High 65 to 70.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  67
Low:   45

Sunrise Wednesday:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   8:55 PM CDT

Tim

Record cold high temperature possible Tuesday at International Falls. Cool temps, lingering clouds and some showers into Tue; Warming up mid-week

/Issued 4:41 PM CDT, Monday, May 29, 2017/

Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com

May 2017 temperature departure map (1st-28th)

-Blue colors indicate below average temperatures
-Orange colors indicate above average temperatures
-Areas in white near normal temperatures

Temperatures and radar from 2 PM today

Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com

Weather Synopsis

A cool and moist NW flow remained over the Northland today with low pressure at the surface and aloft centered to our NE.  Cold air advection continued today with 850mb temperatures in the +4 to +6C range.  Highs today were only in the 50s with lower 60s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Skies were generally overcast today with scattered showers moving NW-SE across the area.

Will continue to be under the influence of the Ontario low and cold upper level trough into Tuesday.  Little change in the weather as skies remain overcast for the most part with a few breaks in the clouds possible at times, there will also be more scattered showers and some drizzle tonight and Tuesday.  Temperatures will cool even further as 850mb temperatures fall to around 0C on Tuesday with 925mb temperatures dropping to around +4C.

Lows tonight will mainly be in the 40s with highs Tuesday only in the 40s and 50s.

Note:  A record cold high temperature is certainly possible at International Falls, Minnesota Tuesday (May 30th)  See stats below.

53 F (1978)
54 F (2015)
55 F (2009)

A drier and milder weather pattern sets up for Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs getting into the 60s to lower 70s Wednesday with widespread 70s expected Thursday.

A couple pics I took Sunday, May 28, 2017.












































Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  A few showers possible mainly this evening.  Low 44 to 48.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers.  High 50 to 55.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  66
Low:   44

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   8:54 PM CDT

Tim

Occasional showers through Tuesday (Much cooler high temps Mon-Tue) Warming up to around 70 Wednesday

/Issued 7:23 PM CDT, Sunday, May 28, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Water vapor satellite loop from late Sunday afternoon, May 28, 2017.

Temperature departure map for the week of May 21, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Precipitation departure map for the week of May 21, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Local Storm Reports for May 28, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  These are additional storm reports from this afternoon

*6:40 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  McGregor, MN 7 N (Aitkin County)

*6:25 PM:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Glen, MN 5 NE (Aitkin County)

*4:55 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Motley, MN (Cass County)

*3:55 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Island Lake, MN 11 NE (St. Louis County)

*3:04 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Brainerd, MN (Crow Wing County)

*3:04 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Grand Rapids, MN (Itasca County)  Pea size hail covering the ground.

*2:59 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  East Gull Lake, MN 2 W (Cass County)

*1:35 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Hackensack, MN 2 NNE (Cass County)

*1:30 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Ashland, WI (Ashland County)

*1:20 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Motely, MN (Cass County)

*1:00 PM:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Manitowish, WI 1 SSE (Iron County)  Pea to dime sized hail.

*12:15 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Rice Lake, MN 4 NW (St. Louis County)  Deck 2/3 covered with pea sized hail.

*12:15 PM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Pine River, MN (Cass County)

*12:13 PM:  HAIL.  0.50 inch.  Drummond, WI 12 W (Bayfield County)
Rainfall reports from May 28, 2017
Note:  Totals listed below are through ~7 PM Sunday evening (May 28)
Two Harbors, MN:  0.92 in
Littlefork, MN:  0.50 in
International Falls, MN:  0.41 in
Ely, MN:  0.34 in
Ashland, WI:  0.33 in
Washburn, WI:  0.32 in
Hayward, WI:  0.28 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.26 in
Clam Lake, WI:  0.19 in
Cook, MN:  0.18 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.16 in
Isabella, MN:  0.15 in 
Glidden, WI:  0.15 in
Hill City, MN:  0.14 in
Walker, MN:  0.12 in
Silver Bay, MN:  0.12 in

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

May 21-27, 2017

High temperatures

5/21:  50 F/-14 degrees below normal
5/22:  54 F/-10 degrees below normal
5/23:  56 F/-8 degrees below normal
5/24:  59 F/-6 degrees below normal
5/25:  65 F/Normal
5/26:  69 F/+4 degrees above normal
5/27:  75 F/+10 degrees above normal

Low temperatures

5/21:  39 F/-3 degrees below normal
5/22:  45 F/+3 degrees above normal
5/23:  46 F/+3 degrees above normal
5/24:  42 F/-1 degree below normal
5/25:  40 F/-3 degrees below normal
5/26:  48 F/+5 degrees above normal
5/27:  47 F/+3 degrees above normal

Total precipitation:  0.33″
Normal:  0.75″
Departure:  -0.42″ below normal

Weather Synopsis

High temperatures today were around 10-15 degrees cooler compared to Saturday, and this cooling trend will continue the next few days.  Highs today were in the 50s and 60s under mostly cloudy skies but there was some sun from time to time.  Showers and thunderstorms have been scattered throughout the Northland today as an upper level low/trough drops south into the upper Midwest.  Surface low pressure was located north of Lake Superior late this afternoon with one cold front well to our east but a secondary cold front was approaching from the west/northwest late today.  The lift associated with these features coupled with cold temperatures aloft (H5 temps around -20C) milder temperatures near the surface made the atmosphere unstable which has triggered the storms that have affected parts of the Northland today.  Freezing levels were quite low today so a lot of the storms if they became strong enough did spit out some pea to marble size hail.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Northland tonight although the potential for thunderstorms will probably decrease overnight as instability wanes — More showers are expected Memorial Day and Tuesday, but much lower instability over the area Monday, so thunderstorms if any do develop should be more isolated compared to what occurred today.

The bigger story Monday and Tuesday will be the temperatures.  850mb temps will drop to -1 and +3 degrees C while surface temperatures fall to well below normal levels once again.  Highs Monday are expected to be in the 50s while highs Tuesday will only be in the 40s and 50s.  Note:  The normal high temperatures on the last few days of May are generally in the upper 60s.

Low temps will be near average thanks to the lingering cloud cover tonight and Monday night.  Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s tonight, and mainly in the 40s Monday night.

A top 3 coldest high temperature is not forecast in Duluth for Monday or Tuesday as those records are in the low to mid 40s.

 International Falls, however, could have a top 3 coldest high temperature both Monday and Tuesday.  See stats below.

May 29:

46 F (1947)
52 F (2012)
53 F (1989)

May 30:

53 F (1978)
54 F (2015)
55 F (2009)

Tim

Quite a few reports of small hail in far west Duluth and northwest Wisconsin this morning – Scattered storms to continue through the afternoon

/Issued 12:19 PM CDT, Sunday, May 28, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

A very potent disturbance moving east through the Northland this morning helped to produce scattered thunderstorms some of which have been on the strong side with numerous reports of small hail.  Note the spin on the water vapor satellite image from this morning.  Not a lot of instability or warm air in our area this morning, but with cold air aloft and just enough warming and instability this was enough to trigger the convection Sunday morning.

Local Storm Reports for May 28, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*11:53 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Lutsen, MN 6 NNE (Cook County)

*11:51 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Loretta, WI 4 NNE (Sawyer County)

*11:37 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  West Duluth, MN 2 N (St. Louis County)

*11:34 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  West Duluth, MN 3 N (St. Louis County)

*11:31 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Butternut, WI (Ashland County)  Lots of hail.

*11:29 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Hermantown, MN 2 WSW (St. Louis County)

*11:24 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Hawthorne, WI (Douglas County)

*11:20 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Iron Junction, MN 6 W (St. Louis County)

*10:54 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Gary New Duluth, MN 1 WSW (St. Louis County)  Lots of pea size hail.

*10:26 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Esko, MN 1 W (Carlton County)

*9:25 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Northwoods Beach, WI 2 NW (Sawyer County)

*9:15 AM:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Stone Lake, WI (Sawyer County)

Tim

75 degrees at the Duluth Airport today (+10 degrees above normal) Scattered Showers/T’storms Sunday – highs in the 60s

/Issued 8:22 PM CDT, Saturday, May 27, 2017/

Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model.




















Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*Today’s (May 27th) high of 75 degrees is the warmest temperature since September 11 (76 F)

*Today (May 27th) marks the 4th time this month with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees, but this will likely be the last 70 degree temperature we get for the rest of this month.

*5 days at or above 70 F so far this year (Thru May 27th)  9 days at or above 70 F last year thru May 27th.

Weather Synopsis

The main feature that will affect us through Tuesday will be an upper level low pressure system which will move east/southeast out of Manitoba through Monday before it exits slowly off to the east on Tuesday.

This system will bring some showers to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight and Sunday morning, then as daytime heating occurs, the risk for thunderstorms will increase Sunday afternoon into the early evening hours.  Colder temperatures aloft along with steepening mid level lapse rates will move into our area Sunday with CAPE projected to be in the 200-800 j/kg range.  Should be a favorable setup for scattered convection with isolated strong thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon.

The risk for thunderstorms decreases Memorial Day with little to no instability forecast in our area but showers are expected to continue at times.

Lows tonight in the 40s and 50s.  Highs Sunday mainly in the 60s.  Highs Memorial Day cooling off into the 50s with a few locations in far southern parts of the area close to 60 degrees.

Tim