Occasional rain showers/Isolated t-storms this evening; More showers late Saturday afternoon-evening; Dry Sunday

/Issued 4:49 PM CDT, Friday, June 30, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z RAP model — 500mb forecast valid for Saturday morning (10 AM)

Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z European Ensemble model from June 30, 2017 valid for next Thursday, July 3, 2017.  Map below shows the 500mb heights for later next week.

Weather Synopsis

Well the weekend is upon us so that must mean another upper level low will affect us, seems to be the trend so far this summer — Yes, there is another upper level low pressure system which will pass north of Minnesota over the weekend, and this will bring occasional scattered rain showers to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Saturday night, but unlike the last few upper lows, this one won’t stick around very long, and should be out of here by Sunday, in fact Sunday looks like a nice summer day, and it should remain dry the way it looks now.

For tonight…Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through midnight with coverage and intensity of these showers decreasing overnight.  Locally heavy downpours and occasional lightning will be the main threats with the storms this evening with a lower risk for gusty winds and small hail (Around pea size)  Lows ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Saturday…Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  Rain showers increasing while moving NW-SE across the Northland.  The best chance for rain during the day should remain north of Highway 2, with locations near and south of Highway 2 having a greater chance for some rain either late Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening.  Highs in the 60s and 70s.

Sunday…Mainly dry with some sunshine.  Highs mainly in the 70s.

Note:  July begins tomorrow (Saturday)  Climate normals for Duluth, Minnesota

Base period for averages:  1981-2010
Base period for records:  1870-2017

Average temperature:  65.8 degrees
Warmest:  71.9 degrees in 2012 and 2006
Coldest:  59.4 degrees in 1992

Normal precipitation:  3.85″
Wettest:  10.83″ in 1909
Driest:  0.47″ in 1875

Average number of days with a high temperature of at least 80 F:  11
Most number of days at or above 80 F:  25 in 2012
Fewest number of days at or above 80 F:  0 in 1992

Last July climate stats for Duluth, Minnesota

Average temperature:  67.1 degrees (+1.3 degrees above normal)
Total precipitation:  4.39″ (+0.54″ above normal)
10 days at or above 80 F
1 day at or above 90 F
8 thunderstorm days

Astronomical data for July

Sunrise on the 1st:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st:  5:47 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  9:06 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st:  8:41 PM CDT

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly before midnight.  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 67 to 72.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Saturday night…  Showers during the evening.  Lows in the 50s.

.Sunday…  Some sun.  High 70 to 75.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  75
Low:   54

Sunrise Saturday:  5:19 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim

Scattered showers/few t-storms Friday and again Saturday PM with highs near 70 degrees

/Issued 6:15 PM CDT, Thursday, June 29, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

12z NSSL WRF-ARW model

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

24-hour rainfall map from June 28-29, 2017 ending the morning of June 29.

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

Severe weather reports map for June 28, 2017.  ~30 filtered tornado reports Wednesday affecting parts of 5 states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Missouri)


Rainfall reports for Wednesday-Thursday morning, June 28-29, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Lutsen, MN 2 WSW:  3.10 in
Duluth, MN (National Weather Service)  2.50 in
Arnold, MN 5 NE:  2.43 in
Taft, MN:  2.14 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  2.13 in
Patzau, WI 7 E:  1.90 in
Island Lake, MN:  1.88 in
Grand Marais, MN 4 W:  1.81 in
Maple, WI 1 WSW:  1.80 in
Gary New Duluth, MN 2 NW:  1.75 in
South Range, WI 3 ENE:  1.73 in
Superior, WI 5 SE:  1.65 in
Wrenshall, MN 2 E:  1.54 in
Hovland, MN:  1.47 in
Brookston, MN:  1.26 in
Grand Portage, MN:  1.22 in
Two Harbors, MN 3 W:  1.13 in
Floodwood, MN:  1.08 in
Grantsburg, WI:  1.04 in
Ashland, WI:  1.02 in
Silver Bay, MN:  1.02 in
Two Harbors, MN:  1.01 in
Wolf Ridge, MN:  0.99 in
Orr, MN 3 SW:  0.94 in
Askov, MN:  0.72 in
Winter, WI:  0.70 in
Emily, MN:  0.70 in
Hayward, WI:  0.62 in
Keewatin, MN:  0.59 in
Park Falls, WI:  0.55 in
Cook, MN:  0.53 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  0.51 in
Hill City, MN:  0.44 in
International Falls, MN:  0.38 in
Hurley, WI:  0.22 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.20 in

Local Storm Reports for June 28, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*4:54 PM CDT:  FUNNEL CLOUD.  Siren, WI 2 WSW (Burnett County)

*4:53 PM CDT:  TORNADO.  Siren, WI 2 SW (Burnett County)  Brief tornado near the intersection of Peterson Road and Waldora Road.  Minor tree damage and part of a barn roof taken off.

=========================================

Note:  Another top 10 coldest high temperature on record at Duluth, Minnesota on June 28, 2017.  High temperature was 59 degrees which ties with June 28, 1989 for 9th coldest high temperature on record dating back to 1870.  The record coldest high on June 28th is 51 degrees set in 1924.  Duluth also had their 2nd wettest June 28th on record with a rainfall total of 1.80 inches — The record wettest June 28th on record is 2.81 inches which was set 118 years ago in 1899.

Note:  High temperature of 63 degrees at International Falls, Minnesota on June 28, 2017 ties with June 28, 2009, 1982, 1965 and 1952 for 5th coldest high temperature on record.  The record coldest high on June 28th is 56 degrees set in 1951.

Weather Synopsis

Wednesday’s rain maker has moved into the eastern Great Lakes today while the next system to affect us was over the northern Plains.  In between these two systems skies were partly sunny to overcast over the Northland today with milder highs compared to yesterday, highs today were in the low to mid 70s over western-southern areas with cooler 60s elsewhere.  Still some lingering spotty showers and patchy drizzle in parts of northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin today but certainly a much drier day compared to Wednesday.

Note:  High temperature of just 59 degrees at the Duluth Airport on June 28, 2017 was the coldest high temperature since May 30 (53 degrees)

An unsettled weather pattern through the weekend.  The upper level flow will turn NW once again with an upper level low remaining north of our area through Sunday.  Colder temperatures aloft will settle into the upper Midwest Friday and Saturday, this combined with some surface heating will help make the atmosphere unstable, that plus a few boundaries pushing through the region will go on to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Friday and again Saturday afternoon/evening.  There will be dry hours mixed in both Friday and Saturday, but if you do get underneath a shower either day the potential does exist for a brief downpour.

As for tonight, there could be a few showers or storms targeting mainly western-southern portions of the Northland.

Lows tonight, Friday night and Saturday night will mainly be in the 50s.  Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 60s and 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Friday…  Considerable cloudiness (Some sun possible at times)  Scattered showers.  Isolated thunderstorms also possible.  High 68 to 73.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible mainly later in the day.  High around 70.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  75
Low:   53

Sunrise Friday:  5:18 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim

Nearly an inch of rain so far today in Duluth. Tornado Watch until 10 PM for parts of northwest Wisconsin. Little bit nicer Thursday

/Issued 5:05 PM CDT, Wednesday, June 28, 2017/

Radar rainfall estimates through late Wednesday afternoon, and rainfall reports from http://mesowest.utah.edu

Analysis from earlier this afternoon

Weather Synopsis

A cool and wet Wednesday as a rather strong area of low pressure moved east out of the eastern Dakotas today.  The surface low at 4 PM today was moving into central Minnesota.  Rain has been falling most of the day in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with embedded heavier downpours.  The overcast and rainy conditions in our area has kept the instability in check except for the far southern portions of the Northland where CAPE values have risen to 500-1000 j/kg late this afternoon, result from this has been for very little thunderstorm activity in our area today, but a few storms have been developing late this afternoon in Burnett County Wisconsin where the northern edge of the higher instability is located.  Highs today were mainly in the 50s and 60s with a few locales in the far south getting close to 70 degrees.

An unsettled weather pattern will be with us for the next few days.  The system giving us the rain today will exit slowly to the east tonight while additional areas of low pressure and their troughs/cold fronts pass through the area through Saturday.

Occasional rain will continue in parts of the Northland tonight with thunderstorms also expected especially this evening over the far southern portions of northwest Wisconsin.  A few of these storms could become strong to severe with favorable 0-1 km shear in place ~30 knots along with Storm Relative Helicity Values of 200-300 m2/s2  — An isolated tornado threat does exist this evening from Burnett County, east to Price County Wisconsin, and there could also be some hail and gusty winds.

Lows tonight will mainly be in the 50s.

Some improvements in the weather on the way for Thursday under partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs are forecast to be in the 60s and 70s with a wind shift to the north or northwest.  There could be a few showers over parts of the area with an isolated afternoon thunderstorm possible too.

Will see an upper level low/trough approach from the NW on Friday and that system will likely be with us through the weekend — Colder temperatures aloft (Although not as cold as last weekend) will move over the upper Midwest, and this combined with surface heating will likely cause scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday and Saturday with a lower chance for this to occur on Sunday.

Highs Friday, Saturday and Sunday are expected to be in the 60s and 70s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Occasional showers.  Patchy fog.  Mostly cloudy.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph becoming variable late.

.Thursday…  Considerable cloudiness, some sun possible at times.  High 67 to 72 but it could be cooler at times near Lake Superior.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  A few showers possible.  Mostly cloudy (Some peeks of sun)  Highs in the 60s.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  74
Low:   53

Sunrise Thursday:  5:17 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   9:06 PM CDT

Tim

Cool tonight (Spotty evening showers) 70s and Dry Tuesday; Cooler with some rain midweek

/Issued 5:36 PM CDT, Monday, June 26, 2017/

Source:  http://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z 6.26.17 European Ensemble model

Note:  Ridge=Warmer temperatures while cooler temperatures can be expected where troughs set up.

–Although showers are in the forecast Friday/Saturday it likely won’t be an all day rain.  Scattered showers develop, affect some of us while other spots stay dry, the process will repeat itself both Friday and Saturday with dry periods in between the rain showers, and of course this is subject to change since it’s still a few days down the road.

High temperature forecast for the Twin Ports this weekend

Saturday:  ~64 degrees
Sunday:  ~70 degrees

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Note:  Normal low temperatures here in the Northland in late June are in the low to mid 50s.

Low temperature reports from this morning, June 26, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Embarrass, MN:  33 F
Crane Lake, MN:  34 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  35 F
Bruno, MN:  36 F
Aitkin, MN:  37 F
Bigfork, MN:  37 F
Moose Lake, MN:  37 F
Twig, MN 3 WNW:  38 F
Siren, WI:  38 F
Togo, MN:  38 F
Cook, MN:  39 F
South Range, WI 4 SSE:  39 F
Pine River, MN:  39 F
Wright, MN 3 E:  39 F
Hinckley, MN:  41 F
Cloquet, MN:  41 F
International Falls, MN:  41 F
Duluth, MN (Airport)  42 F
Cass Lake, MN:  43 F
Hayward, WI:  43 F
Winter, WI:  43 F
Hurley, WI:  44 F
Phillips, WI:  44 F

Local Storm Reports
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

*1:20 PM CDT 6.26:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Ely, MN 1 E (St. Louis County)

*1:20 PM CDT 6.26:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  South Range, WI 4 SSE (Douglas County)

*2:00 PM CDT 6.25:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Coleraine, MN 8 NNW (Itasca County)

*2:12 PM CDT 6.24:  HAIL.  0.25 inch.  Cloverdale, MN 5 ENE (Pine County)

*Record Event*

Record low temperature at Hibbing, Minnesota today, June 26, 2017.

New Record:  35 degrees
Old Record:  38 degrees set in 1982

Note:  Hibbing, Minnesota also tied their record low temperature of 37 degrees on June 25, 2017.  The previous record was set in 1996.

Top ten coldest low temperatures on June 25-26, 2017…see stats below

-June 25, 2017:  Low temperature of 43 degrees at the Duluth Airport 5th coldest low temperature on record for June 25.  The record low temperature 39 degrees set in 1957.

-June 25, 2017:  Low temperature of 43 degrees at International Falls tied with 2004 for 5th coldest low temperature on record for June 25.  The record low temperature 38 degrees set in 2012 and 1996.

-June 26, 2017:  Low temperature of 42 degrees at the Duluth Airport tied with 1962 and 1909 for 5th coldest low temperature on record for June 26.  The record low temperature for today’s date 36 degrees set in 1982.

-June 26, 2017:  Low temperature of 41 degrees at International Falls tied with 2009 and 1992 for 3rd coldest low temperature on record for June 26.  The record low temperature for today’s date is 39 degrees set in 1948.

Weather Synopsis

Slightly warmer today but still below average high temps for late June with highs in the 60s to around 70 degrees.  The temperatures aloft although still cold aren’t as cold as they were this past weekend.  Late afternoon 500mb temperatures were at around -22C while 850mb temperatures were sitting at around +7C.  Saw a mix of sun/clouds across the area today with scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.  The amount of instability was a bit higher today thanks to the slightly milder temperatures.  Afternoon CAPE values up to 500 j/kg were found in parts of the Northland, this combined with low freezing levels led to a few reports of small hail with the stronger storms today.

Cool temperatures continue tonight with lows in the 40s to lower 50s but the traditional cold spots will likely dip into the 30s once again.  A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move toward the SE this evening with mainly dry weather expected by late evening and through the overnight hours.

Tuesday looks pretty nice as winds swing around to the SW as high pressure over the eastern Dakotas  this evening moves to the Ohio Valley Tuesday afternoon.  Partly cloudy skies are forecast with highs mainly in the 70s.

Occasional rain on the way from late Tuesday night but more so for Wednesday as low pressure along with a warm front, cold front and inverted trough move east across the upper Midwest.  Not a lot of instability this far north the way it looks now but a few thunderstorms are still possible.  Deeper moisture pushes into our area on Wednesday so some heavier downpours could occur.  Much cooler temps for midweek with highs Wednesday in the 50s and 60s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Spotty showers early otherwise partly cloudy.  Low 46 to 51.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west.

.Tuesday…  Milder.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 71 to 76.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday…  Cooler with occasional rain.  Mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 60.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  74
Low:   53

Sunrise Tuesday:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim

A top 10 coldest high temp on record today (June 25) at Duluth and International Falls. Little warmer Monday (Spotty PM showers) 70s and dry Tuesday

/Issued 7:58 PM CDT, Sunday, June 25, 2017/

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of June 18, 2017 — It was a cool week across the area.  The low temperatures were actually close to average for most of the week, but it was the high temps that were well below average for most of last week.

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of June 18, 2017.

Through 5 PM, June 25, 2017

Note:  Tied for 8th coldest high temperature on record at Duluth, Minnesota, today (June 25, 2017)  High temperature so far today 61 degrees.  See top 10 list below

1)  51 F in 1898
2)  52 F in 1888 and 1881
3)  53 F in 1922 and 1884
4)  56 F in 1942 and 1887
5)  57 F in 1968, 1920 and 1918

6)  58 F in 1970 and 1948
7)  60 F in 2014, 1958, 1951, 1944 and 1906
8)  61 F in 2017, 2004, 1969, 1921, 1915 and 1883

9)  62 F in 1982, 1926, 1917 and 1902
10)  63 F in 1942, 1956 and 1892

Note:  4th coldest high temperature on record at International Falls, Minnesota, today (June 25, 2017)  High temperature so far today 62 degrees. See top 10 list below

1)  58 F in 1898
2)  59 F in 2004 and 1985
3)  61 F in 1992 and 1970
4)  62 F in 2017
5)  63 F in 1993 and 1958

6)  64 F in 1976, 1969, 1953, 1948 and 1926
7)  65 F in 1922
8)  67 F in 2014, 1968 and 1909
9)  68 F in 2003
10)  69 F in 2000, 1997, 1952 and 1908

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

June 18-24, 2017

High temperatures

6/18:  68 F/-4 degrees below normal
6/19:  65 F/-7 degrees below normal
6/20:  68 F/-4 degrees below normal
6/21:  72 F/Normal
6/22:  77 F/+4 degrees above normal
6/23:  70 F/-3 degrees below normal
6/24:  63 F/-10 degrees below normal

Low temperatures

6/18:  55 F/+5 degrees above normal
6/19:  50 F/Normal
6/20:  49 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/21:  45 F/-6 degrees below normal
6/22:  49 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/23:  50 F/-2 degrees below normal
6/24:  51 F/-1 degree below normal

Total precipitation:  0.43″
Normal:  1.07″
Departure:  -0.64″ below normal

24-hour rainfall totals
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Note:  Rainfall amounts listed below are through around 7 PM, June 25, 2017

Fernberg, MN:  1.34 in
Isabella, MN:  1.20 in
Ely, MN:  1.04 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.97 in
Seagull Lake, MN:  0.93 in
International Falls, MN:  0.59 in
Kabetogama, MN:  0.58 in
Orr, MN:  0.54 in
Hayward, WI:  0.53 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport)  0.49 in
Glidden, WI:  0.48 in
Littlefork, MN:  0.47 in
Clam Lake, WI:  0.33 in
Washburn, WI:  0.25 in
Phillips, WI:  0.22 in
McGregor, MN:  0.21 in
Grand Portage, MN:  0.20 in
Solon Springs, WI:  0.17 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.12 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.08 in

Weather Synopsis

A very cool airmass was over the Northland today.  Late afternoon meso-analysis revealed 500mb temperatures of -22 to -25C with 850mb temperatures from +3 to +5C.  Daytime highs today were only in the 50s to lower 60s while a few locations in far northeast Minnesota had temps in the upper 40s this afternoon.  Persistent NW flow aloft brought another disturbance down into our area today although today’s system tracked farther north compared to Saturday’s.  Rain was widespread most of the day in far northeast Minnesota while occasional showers were common over most of the rest of the Northland.  Winds were a bit gusty today out of the northwest with wind speeds in the 10 to 25 mph range.

Rain will continue most of the night in far northeast Minnesota along and east of a line from near Forest Center, Isabella and Silver Bay.  A few showers will also occur west/south of those areas in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin but this activity should taper off by later this evening with mainly dry weather expected for these areas overnight.  Could be some patchy fog late tonight otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies with cool low temperatures in the 40s, maybe even some 30s up north if skies clear out enough.

Turning a bit warmer but still slightly cooler than normal for Monday with highs in the 60s to lower 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies — A few pop up afternoon showers or thunderstorms in parts of the Northland as well.

Tuesday still looks to be one of the nicer days this week with a mix of sun/clouds along with a breeze out of the SW — Highs Tuesday mainly in the 70s (Normal for late June)

Cooler temps return midweek along with chances for rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms.  Low pressure moving east out of the northern Plains along with a warm front and cold front will lead to these rain chances for Wednesday.  Higher moisture content also moves in with PWATS over 1.25″ this could lead to some heavier downpours in parts of the Northland for Wednesday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Spotty showers before midnight.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Spotty afternoon showers.  High 66 to 71.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 70 to 75.  Southwest wind 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  74
Low:   52

Sunrise Monday:  5:16 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   9:07 PM CDT

Tim