Close to 90 degrees at International Falls, MN today, July 30th (High temp 88 F, Tied for 4th warmest high temp on record for July 30th) Another warm day ahead for Monday

/Issued 7:30 PM CDT, Sunday, July 30th, 2017/

Weather setup for later this week.  Note:  The track and timing of this system could change a bit compared to what this map is showing since this system is still a few days away.

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Temperature departure map for the week of July 23, 2017

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/

Precipitation departure map for the week of July 23, 2017

Temperature and precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

July 23-29, 2017

High temperatures

7/23:  65 F/-12 degrees below normal
7/24:  74 F/-3 degrees below normal
7/25:  74 F/-3 degrees below normal
7/26:  81 F/+4 degrees above normal
7/27:  76 F/-1 degree below normal
7/28:  78 F/+1 degree above normal
7/29:  83 F/+6 degrees above normal

Low temperatures

7/23:  52 F/-4 degrees below normal
7/24:  49 F/-7 degrees below normal
7/25:  54 F/-2 degrees below normal
7/26:  63 F/+7 degrees above normal
7/27:  56 F/Normal
7/28:  50 F/-6 degrees below normal
7/29:  57 F/+1 degree above normal

Total precipitation:  0.03″
Normal:  0.76″
Departure:  -0.73″ below normal

Weather Synopsis

More beautiful summer weather in the Northland today with high temperatures mainly in the 80s while International Falls came up just two degrees shy of 90.  A few showers and thunderstorms moved through portions of far northern Minnesota this afternoon with locally heavy downpours and some lightning associated with that activity, most of which remained across northern parts of St. Louis county.  There were also a few isolated showers in the extreme southeast portion of northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.  Elsewhere, dry with a mix of sun/clouds today.

Through Tuesday:  Continued warm temperatures with highs Monday in the 80s.  Highs Tuesday ranging from the upper 70s to middle 80s.  Lows tonight and Monday night mainly in the 60s but a few locations could dip into the 50s.

Will see a cold front move slowly southeast through the Northland from late Monday night into Tuesday.  This boundary could bring a few showers or thunderstorms with it as it passes through the area.  Still not expecting any severe weather though with weak winds aloft and very little shear to speak of.  Moisture isn’t the best, nor is the instability, but there should be enough of those two things to trigger a few showers or storms late Monday night or Tuesday.

Still looks like will get quite a shift in the weather pattern from mid to late week, could also turn kinda rainy especially Wednesday night into early Friday morning the way it looks now.  Gusty northeast winds are also possible later this week.

A top 5 warmest high temperature on record today, July 30th, 2017 at International Falls, Minnesota.  See top 5 list below

1:  94 F in 1995, 1975, 1970 and 1913
2:  92 F in 1955
3:  91 F in 2007
4:  88 F in 2017, 1987, 1972 and 1966
5:  87 F in 2000, 1957, 1916 and 1911

A few pics from Duluth, Minnesota (July 30, 2017)












































Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Warm.  Partly cloudy.  High 83 to 86.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible mainly early.  High 80 to 85.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest later in the day.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Monday:  5:48 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   8:42 PM CDT

Tim

Nice summer weather continues the next few days. Risk of a few showers/t-storms well north of Duluth Sunday afternoon-evening

/Issued 5:19 PM CDT, Saturday, July 29, 2017

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

12z European model from July 29, 2017

Looks like will see a shift in the weather pattern by the mid to late portion of this coming week with cooler temperatures returning to the Northland at least for a couple of days.

Note:  Possibly a top 5 coldest high temperature on record at Duluth, Minnesota coming up on Thursday, August 3, 2017.  See list below

1:  54 F in 1974
2:  55 F in 1952
3:  56 F in 1903
4:  58 F in 1915
5:  59 F in 1956

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

12z NSSL WRF-ARW model from July 29, 2017.
















Weather Synopsis

A warm summer day across the area with widespread 80s today.  A mix of sun and clouds were common, and there has been a few brief showers in far northern Minnesota thanks to some instability which has built up this afternoon but the majority of the Northland was dry today.

Through Monday:  High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes which will continue to give us warm temperatures along with partly cloudy skies.  A weak front up near the Borderland area will remain there through Sunday night with the possibility for a few isolated showers or thunderstorms occurring up in far northern Minnesota this evening and again on Sunday, but elsewhere it will stay dry through Monday.

A cold front will move through the Northland Tuesday with a chance for a few showers or thunderstorms but right now the chances for severe weather look very low with weak winds aloft and not a whole lot of moisture over our area.

More showers are possible at times Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level trough sets up across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 60 to 65.  Wind west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Partly cloudy.  Warm.  High 82 to 87.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday…  Partly cloudy.  Warm.  High 81 to 86.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Sunday:  5:46 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   8:43 PM CDT

Tim

Isolated showers early tonight followed by areas of low clouds/fog later in the night-Friday AM. Dry and warm this weekend. North Dakota drought update in this post

/Issued 5:26 PM CDT, Thursday, July 27, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Note:  See loop below this first image.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Source:  http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

Drought continues to worsen over much of central and western North Dakota with 45% of North Dakota under Extreme (D3) to Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions as of July 25th — This is up from 40% one week ago.  Note:  Three months ago all of North Dakota was drought-free!

Weather Synopsis

An upper level low with a pocket of -15 C 500mb temperatures has moved into northern Minnesota this afternoon.  The combination of cold temperatures aloft and warmer air near the surface made the atmosphere unstable, and this has resulted in spotty coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in parts of northern Minnesota with a few other storms popping at times for brief periods in parts of far northwest Wisconsin.  Storms today have been pulsing up and down, they build up, then collapse minutes later, this the result of weak winds in the mid levels of the atmosphere, storms are unable to organize very much.  Brief downpours and some lightning have been the main hazards out of these storms today.  Outside of the spotty convection, skies were partly to mostly cloudy today with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s with slightly cooler temperatures near Lake Superior due to an easterly breeze.

Isolated showers or thunderstorms will linger across parts of the Northland this evening as the upper level system continues to drop southeast out of northern Minnesota.  Overnight expecting clear to partly cloudy skies with patchy fog.  Lows will be in the 50s to lower 60s.

Pleasant summer weather conditions Friday through Sunday as high pressure covers the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.  Highs Friday in the 70s and 80s, highs Saturday and Sunday mainly in the 80s.  Note:  It will be a little cooler along the North Shore of Lake Superior the next few days but nothing too chilly thanks to warmer water temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s over western Lake Superior.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Isolated showers early otherwise clear to partly cloudy.  Areas of low clouds or fog possible late.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Areas of low clouds or fog possible early, otherwise mostly sunny.  High 75 to 80.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Saturday…  Mostly sunny.  High 80 to 85.  Wind becoming southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  77
Low:  56

Sunrise Friday:  5:44 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   8:46 PM CDT

Tim

A few showers/thunderstorms possible Thursday PM otherwise a nice stretch of weather ahead

/Issued 7:44 PM CDT, Wednesday, July 26, 2017/

Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

21z RAP model


Rainfall reports from Tuesday-early Wednesday morning, July 25-26, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/ http://mesowest.utah.edu

Bruno, MN 4 S:  0.70 in
Washburn, WI:  0.64 in
Phillips, WI:  0.60 in
Winter, WI:  0.44 in
Solon Springs, WI:  0.30 in
Isle, MN 12 N:  0.25 in
Hinckley, MN:  0.20 in
Moose Lake, MN:  0.15 in
Ashland, WI:  0.14 in
Siren, WI:  0.14 in
Kabetogama, MN:  0.09 in
Hayward, WI:  0.05 in
International Falls, MN:  0.04 in

Weather Synopsis

A warm and dry afternoon in our area with passing fair weather cumulus clouds mixed with sunshine.  Highs today were in the mid 70s to lower 80s (Near to a few degrees warmer than average for late July)

High pressure will be in control of our weather through Friday with just one fly in the ointment, that comes tomorrow as an upper level disturbance over southern Saskatchewan Province this afternoon heads southeast into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region — The combination of colder temperatures aloft and warmer temperatures near the surface will make the atmosphere a little bubbly and this will result in a few spotty showers or thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from late Thursday morning through Thursday evening with the greatest concentration of this activity occurring during the afternoon-early evening hours.  Not expecting any severe weather tomorrow but can’t rule out some gusty winds or small hail if a stronger storm can develop.

Lows tonight under clear to partly cloudy skies will be in the 50s to lower 60s.  Highs Thursday mainly in the 70s, maybe an 80 degree reading in western areas.  Note:  It will be turning a little cooler near Lake Superior as northeast winds develop during the day.

Friday looks dry and pleasant with highs in the 70s with near 80 degree temps in western areas, and it will be a little cooler again near Lake Superior.

Note:  Here are a few pictures that I’ve taken during the past week, enjoy!

July 18, 2017 south of Duluth, Minnesota, fog rising off the St. Louis River














July 18, 2017, sunset a little south of Duluth, Minnesota.
















July 19, 2017, St. Louis River in Fond du Lac, Minnesota
















July 20, 2017, sunset in Billings Park, Superior, Wisconsin
















Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Low 57 to 62.  Wind northwest at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few afternoon-early evening showers or thunderstorms possible.  High 72 to 77 but turning a bit cooler near Lake Superior.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph.

.Friday…  Mostly sunny.  Highs in the 70s.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  77
Low:   56

Sunrise Thursday:  5:43 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   8:47 PM CDT

Tim

Muggy tonight with scattered showers/t-storms possible later this evening. Warm but turning less humid Wednesday, some afternoon sun possible

/Issued 5:28 PM CDT, Tuesday, July 25, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar image and surface analysis from 5:15 PM CDT, July 25, 2017.

Source:  http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

Counties shaded in blue=Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM tonight, this includes portions of central and southern Minnesota.

Weather Synopsis

At 4 PM there was a warm front across southern Minnesota while a cold front extended from northwest Minnesota into east central South Dakota.  A more humid day ahead of this system today with late afternoon dew points ranging from the 60s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with low to mid 70s in central/southern portions of Minnesota.  The atmosphere has become very unstable this afternoon with an area of 2000-5000 j/kg of surface-based CAPE covering the southern half of Minnesota while in our neck of the woods most of the instability is elevated with most-unstable CAPE values of 1000-2000 j/kg.  Temperatures aloft are quite warm with 700mb temperatures of +10 to +12 degrees C, this is leading to a capped atmosphere in our local area thanks to the cloud cover and limited heating near the surface.  Highs in the Northland were in the 70s today with 60s near Lake Superior, but where the sun has been out, temperatures warmed well into the 80s to lower 90s this afternoon in southern Minnesota.

The focus for tonight remains on the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  It’ll likely be a few more hours before convection gets going, and once it does, it looks like most of the stuff would remain in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, and up toward the Highway 2 corridor in northeast Minnesota.  A few of the storms could become strong to severe with large hail and strong winds being the main threats along with torrential downpours and lightning.  Note:  With PWATS ranging from 1.50″ to nearly 2.00″ in southern portions of the Northland, the potential is there for localized flooding if thunderstorms begin to train over the same location for a couple of hours later tonight.

Northern Minnesota, including the Borderland and Iron Range should only see a few spotty showers or thunderstorms tonight as the cold front moves through this evening.

Lows tonight will mainly be in the 60s, but a few locations could dip into the 50s up north and near Lake Superior.

Wednesday will feature mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies with a risk for mainly morning showers or thunderstorms in parts of northwest Wisconsin.  Cold front will exit to the south/east with a less humid airmass spreading north-south over our area during the afternoon hours.  Highs Wednesday in the 70s and 80s.

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible Thursday as a potent disturbance with cold temperatures aloft move southeast and through the Northland.

Tim