Smoke; Patchy low clouds/fog possible tonight-Thu AM. Cool NE wind Thursday

/Issued 6:31 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 30, 2017/

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

500mb map valid for Wednesday, September 06, 2017.

Looking at daytime highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees for the middle of next week which would be 10 to around 20 degrees below normal for early September.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Visible satellite loop of this morning’s thunderstorms that moved through the Twin Ports area.  Also note the smoke which shows up as a milky white color over northern Lake Superior, this area of smoke has been affecting parts of the Northland this afternoon.

September climate normals for Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  55.6 degrees
Precipitation:  4.11 inches
Snowfall:  0.1 inches

Warmest September on record:  62.6 degrees set in 1897
Coldest September on record:  47.8 degrees set in 1974

Wettest September on record:  11.52 inches set in 1881
Driest September on record:  0.19 inches set in 1952

Snowiest September on record:  2.4 inches set in 1991

Average number of 80 degree days:  2
Most on record:  10 set in September 1908

Normal high on the 1st:  71 degrees
Normal high on the 30th:  59 degrees

Normal low on the 1st:  52 degrees
Normal low on the 30th:  40 degrees

Astronomical data for September

Sunrise on the 1st:  6:28 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  7:06 AM CDT

Sunset on the 1st:  7:47 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  6:49 PM CDT

Weather Synopsis

Cold front has moved well to the south of the Northland late this afternoon with high pressure building in from the north.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms erupted this morning in parts of the Northland with brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning the main threats from those storms.  Rainfall totals this morning were generally in the 0.05 to 0.25 inch range, and there was one report of sub-severe hail 5 miles northwest of Two Harbors, Minnesota at 7:05 AM CDT (0.25 inch diameter hail, pea sized)

Note:  Rainfall totals from this morning ranged from 0.21 inches at Barnes, WI to 0.17 inches at Minong, WI to 0.05 inches at Duluth, MN and Solon Springs, WI.  Other totals include 0.17 inches at Glidden, WI; 0.10 inches at Hayward, WI; 0.03 inches at Ashland, WI.  Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

This afternoon skies were sunny to mostly sunny with increasing winds out of the northeast near Lake Superior.  Highs today were in the 70s, cooling into the 60s near Lake Superior late this afternoon.

Mainly dry weather through Friday afternoon as high pressure covers the Great Lakes.  Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected through Thursday night.  Lows tonight and Thursday night ranging from the upper 30s to around 50 degrees with a few locations possibly dropping into the middle 30s.  Highs Thursday in the lower 60s near Lake Superior to around 70 degrees away from the lake.

Note:  Although the chances aren’t very high, there still could be some patchy low clouds or fog especially near Lake Superior late tonight through Thursday night.

The next system to affect us approaches from the northern Plains Friday afternoon with a warm front and cold front passing through the area — Rain showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm are expected over parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

Saturday afternoon and most of Sunday look dry at the moment with highs both days in the 70s, possibly a few 80s Sunday.  Note:  The European computer model has been going back and fourth between rain or no rain for Sunday, with the 00z run from early this morning on the dry side, but now the 12z run has come in a lot wetter with showers and thunderstorms over the Northland from late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with heavy rain and even a risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms in parts of the area per 12z run from today.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Breezy.  Clear to partly cloudy.  Patchy low clouds or fog possible.  Low 48 to 53.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Thursday…  Breezy.  Partly cloudy.  Patchy low clouds or fog possible early.  Cooler.  High 60 to 65.  Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.

.Friday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 63 to 68.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  71
Low:   52

Sunrise Thursday:  6:27 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   7:49 PM CDT

Tim

Isolated showers/t-storms possible late tonight-Wed AM. Turning breezy/cooler near Lake Superior Wed

/Issued 6:10 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 29, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM NEST model valid for late tonight.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

22z HRRR model run

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Watch the low clouds/fog burn off from southwest-northeast across western Lake Superior this afternoon on this visible satellite loop which goes through 5:15 PM CDT, August 29, 2017.

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

12z European computer model 850mb temperature forecast valid for next Thursday, September 07, 2017 — If this verifies, then this will be a chilly pattern for our area sometime mid or late next week.  Could have high temperatures only in the 40s and 50s which is very cool for early September.  Overnight lows could also be cold enough to support a risk from patchy frost later next week in parts of the Northland.

Note:  Latest rainfall reports due to Harvey — At least one location in southeast Texas has surpassed 50 inches of rain while a couple others are closing in on 50 inches of rain late this afternoon, incredible!  Here’s the link to the latest rainfall reports http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

Weather Synopsis

Low clouds and fog burned off across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin by Noon today with mostly sunny to sunny skies over the majority of the Northland this afternoon, the exception to this was over extreme northeast Minnesota, mainly over coastal Cook County where low clouds/fog continued as of 6 PM.  Finally a nice, mild day over the entire area with highs today in the mid 70s to low 80s.

A cold front will move south across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from late tonight into Wednesday morning — A few showers or thunderstorms are possible as this front moves through.  Behind it, gusty northeast winds and cooler temperatures will develop near Lake Superior with a threat for some patchy fog and or low clouds Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

Lows tonight in the 50s and 60s.  Highs Wednesday mainly in the 70s but cooling into the lower 60s near Lake Superior.  Highs Thursday in the 60s and 70s, and around 60 degrees near Lake Superior.

Note:  There continues to a chance for patchy frost early Friday morning in parts of northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin for locations inland from Lake Superior.

Showers could return to the Northland Friday evening through Saturday morning as a warm front and cold front move quickly east out of the northern Plains and upper Midwest.

Saturday afternoon and Sunday look mainly dry at the moment.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly cloudy.  Low 58 to 63.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Turning breezy and cooler.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible during the morning.  High 68 to 73.  Wind west, becoming east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph before noon.

.Thursday…  Low clouds or fog possible.  Breezy.  High 60 to 65.  Wind east to northeast at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  71
Low:   52

Sunrise Wednesday:  6:26 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   7:51 PM CDT

Tim

Fog late tonight-Tue AM. Patchy frost possible up north later this week

/Issued 5:06 PM CDT, Monday, August 28, 2017/

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Won’t be much longer until we’re dealing with frost potential across the Northland — Map below shows the average date of the first freezing temperature (32 degrees)

Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)  First freezing temperature data since 2012.  Note:  In the last 5 years the first freeze at the Duluth Airport has occurred later than average by 1 to 2 weeks.

2016:  October 9th
2015:  October 7th
2014:  October 6th
2013:  October 19th
2012:  October 6th

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Note:  Some parts of northeast Minnesota have already had their first freeze (Pink shaded areas on map)  This occurred late last week, August 24th-25th time frame, earlier than usual for the area that had their first freeze late last week.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Visible satellite loop through 4:45 PM CDT, August 28, 2017.  Skies continue to clear in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon but fog will become an issue later tonight.

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Here’s an early look at the weather for the upcoming Labor Day holiday weekend — Still a few days away so things could change a bit, but right now looks like we could be dealing with some rain both Saturday and Sunday in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Saturday’s chance looks greatest during the morning, while on Sunday the chance for rain is greatest during the afternoon/evening.

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Harvey rainfall totals from August 24-28, 2017 (Through 3 PM August 28)
Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Note:  Link to more rainfall and wind reports http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

First Colony, Texas 4 WSW:  35.01 in
Waller, Texas 3 WSW:  34.90 in
League City, Texas 2 W:  33.96 in
South Houston, Texas 4 SSW:  30.32 in
Pasadena, Texas 2 ESE:  25.63 in
Houston/Intercontinental:  24.79 in
Houston/Will Hobby:  24.47 in
College Station, Texas 2 SSW:  19.64 in
Lake Charles, Louisiana 11.5 SSW:  9.65 in

Weather Synopsis

The weather continues to slowly improve after a couple of real crappy days around here.  Upper level system was now southeast of the Northland with a gradual clearing trend noted on visible satellite imagery across the Northland.  Western parts of the area had sunshine the longest today which resulted in warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to even upper 70s — Farther east it took longer for the clouds to break up, and this resulted in cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees this afternoon.

Will have areas of fog developing over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin later this evening through the overnight hours, and this fog could linger past sunrise Tuesday, some of the fog could become dense! The fog should burn off Tuesday morning giving way to a partly to mostly sunny sky Tuesday afternoon.

Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with highs Tuesday in the 70s with 80s from Brainerd, Grand Rapids up to International Falls and points west.

A cold front passes through the area from NW-SE on Wednesday — A few showers or thunderstorms could develop near this boundary as it moves through.  Highs Wednesday will be in the 70s but cooling into the 60s near Lake Superior as a gusty NE wind develops behind the cold frontal passage.

Looks dry Thursday and Friday.  Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday, and mainly the 70s Friday.  Cooler temperatures will occur both days near Lake Superior but more so on Thursday as a gusty NE wind continues.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Some clearing this evening with areas of fog developing overnight.  Low 50 to 55.  Wind variable around 10 mph.

.Tuesday…  Areas of fog during the morning followed by some afternoon sunshine.  High 70 to 75.  Wind variable around 12 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible.  High 66 to 71.  Wind shifting to the northeast at 10 to 20 mph during the afternoon.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  72
Low:   52

Sunrise Tuesday:  6:25 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   7:53 PM CDT

Tim

Catastrophic flooding continues in the Houston, TX area. Light showers in the Northland tonight

/Issued 7:25 PM CDT, Sunday, August 27, 2017/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Here is the latest meso-scale precipitation discussion issued by the Weather Prediction Center http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0745&yr=2017

Source:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov

In addition to the historical flooding from Harvey, there have also been around two dozen preliminary tornado reports since Friday in southeast Texas and southern Louisiana.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Visible satellite loop through 3:45 PM CDT, August 27, 2017.

Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of August 20, 2017.  Another week of widespread below normal temperatures!

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of August 20, 2017.  A small area with well above average rainfall last week (Duluth area, near the head of Lake Superior)  200% of normal!

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota (Airport location)

August 20-26, 2017

High temperatures and departure from normal

8/20:  78 F/+4 degrees above normal
8/21:  69 F/-5 degrees below normal
8/22:  68 F/-5 degrees below normal
8/23:  67 F/-6 degrees below normal
8/24:  64 F/-9 degrees below normal
8/25:  67 F/-6 degrees below normal
8/26:  60 F/-13 degrees below normal

Low temperatures and departure from normal

8/20:  57 F/+3 degrees above normal
8/21:  49 F/-5 degrees below normal
8/22:  51 F/-3 degrees below normal
8/23:  48 F/-6 degrees below normal
8/24:  46 F/-7 degrees below normal
8/25:  46 F/-7 degrees below normal
8/26:  56 F/+3 degrees above normal

Note:  Temperature departure of -4.4 degrees at the Duluth Airport last week.

Total precipitation:  3.02″
Normal:  0.86″
Departure:  +2.16″ above normal

State average for Minnesota (August 20-26, 2017)
Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  63.7 degrees
Departure:  -3.4 degrees

Precipitation:  0.91 inches
Departure:  +0.06 inches

Note:  August 2017 currently ranks as 7th wettest on record at Duluth, Minnesota – See list below.  Probably won’t add too much more rain to the 7.14″ total with just a few more days left in the month, and no big rain events are expected for the remainder of the month.

1:  10.31 inches in 1972
2:  8.46 inches in 1973
3:  7.87 inches in 1889
4:  7.54 inches in 1881
5:  7.49 inches in 1978
6:  7.41 inches in 1999
7:  7.14 inches in 2017

Rainfall totals from August 26, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Superior, WI:  ~4.50 in (1 mile from Airport) report from @DanPavlatos
Duluth, MN (Lincoln Park area)  Around 3.20″ report from Rhonda Sievers
Lester Park, MN:  2.90 in
Gary New Duluth, MN:  2.50 in (Morgan Park neighborhood)
Duluth, MN 3 NE:  2.35 in
Wolfridge, MN (ELC)  2.26 in
Hayward, WI:  2.21 in
Clam Lake, WI 4 W:  2.00 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  1.92 in
Island Lake, MN 4 E:  1.57 in
Hibbing, MN:  1.44 in
Floodwood, MN:  1.42 in
Embarrass, MN:  1.29 in
Ashland, WI:  1.27 in
Celina, MN 2 E:  1.26 in
Cook, MN:  1.24 in
Wright, MN 3 E:  1.21 in
Webster, WI 9 SE:  1.10 in
Butternut, WI:  1.08 in
Babbitt, MN:  1.03 in
Winter, WI:  0.96 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.95 in
Kabetogama, MN:  0.85 in
Orr, MN 3 E:  0.83 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.77 in
Bruno, MN 4 S:  0.66 in
Ely, MN 25 E:  0.64 in
International Falls, MN:  0.58 in
Isle, MN 12 N:  0.54 in
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  0.50 in

Harvey rainfall totals from 8 PM Thursday through 3 PM Sunday, Aug 24-27, 2017

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Dayton, Texas 0.2 miles east:  27.45 in
Santa Fe, Texas 0.7 miles south:  27.42 in
South Houston, Texas 4.0 miles south-southwest:  24.54 in
Bacliff, Texas:  21.62 in
Houston, Texas (Airport)  19.59 in

Weather Synopsis

Less rain today but overcast skies continued along with another day of cooler than normal high temperatures as we get closer to the end of Meteorological summer 2017 (31st of August)  Low pressure at the surface and aloft were over Minnesota with both drifting toward the south/southeast.  Mostly cloudy skies (Few glimpses of sun) covered the Northland today with some patchy drizzle and light rain showers.  Highs today were in the upper 50s to middle 60s with some of the warmest temperatures found near Lake Superior due in part to a northwest wind (Downsloping affect)

Patchy drizzle and light rain showers will linger this evening in parts of northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin under mostly cloudy skies — Overnight areas of fog under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies for Monday with areas of fog early in the day.  A little warmer Monday with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s with the warmest temperatures in far western portions of the Northland.

One of the warmer days this week looks to occur on Tuesday as winds go southwest ahead of an approaching cold front from the north.  Assuming there is some sunshine Tuesday, then highs should get into the 70s with some 80s even possible in far northern Minnesota.

Turning cooler near Lake Superior Wednesday as a cold front moves through the Northland.  Winds will shift to the northeast once the front moves through.  Highs Wednesday in the 70s but falling to around 60 degrees near Lake Superior.

Note:  A few showers are possible over the Northland Tuesday night or Wednesday but the next few days look a lot drier compared to the past few days.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Drizzle or light rain showers possible mainly this evening.  Low 52 to 57.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday…  Mostly cloudy but some clearing is possible during the afternoon.  High 65 to 70.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 70 to 75.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  72
Low:   53

Sunrise Monday:  6:24 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   7:55 PM CDT

Tim

Record rainfall at Duluth, MN today (Aug 26) 1-2"+ rain totals in parts of the Northland today.

/Issued 6:37 PM CDT, Saturday, August 26, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop through 6:15 PM CDT, August 26, 2017.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM temperature forecast for Sunday afternoon.  A familiar pattern this summer has returned with warm air off to our west while northwest flow aloft and an upper level low over the Great Lakes prevents that warm air from spreading into our local area.














Note:  3rd one inch or greater rainfall event this month at Duluth, Minnesota today, August 26, 2017, and the 2nd one just this week!

Note:  Currently, August 2017 is tied for 2nd most one inch or greater rainfall events on record (The record is 4) See list below.  By the way Duluth only averages 1-One inch or greater precip event during the month of August (Base period 1981-2010)

1:  4 set in 1973 and 1972
2:  3 set in 2017, 1995, 1988, 1966, 1964, 1952, 1941 and 1899

Note:  So far this year 8 one inch or greater precipitation events at Duluth, Minnesota.  The annual average is 6.  The greatest number of one inch or greater precipitation events on record is 13 which was set in 1991, 1949 and 1879.

*Record Event*

Record rainfall at Duluth, Minnesota today, August 26, 2017.

New record:  1.47 inches (Through 6:15 PM CDT)
Previous record:  0.90 inches set in 1921

Preliminary rainfall totals for August 26, 2017
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.edu

Hayward, WI:  2.39 in
Superior, WI:  1.86 in
McGregor, MN:  1.63 in
Barnes, WI:  1.62 in
Moose Lake, MN:  1.62 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  1.47 in
Saginaw, MN:  1.24 in
Washburn, WI:  1.21 in
Hill City, MN:  1.21 in
Pine River, MN:  1.19 in
Brainerd, MN:  1.16 in
Solon Springs, WI:  1.15 in
Hibbing, MN:  1.05 in
Clam Lake, WI:  1.01 in
Effie, MN:  0.97 in
Ashland, WI:  0.84 in
Minong, WI:  0.81 in
Hinckley, MN:  0.78 in
Two Harbors, MN:  0.67 in
Walker, MN:  0.62 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.56 in
Siren, WI:  0.51 in
Phillips, WI:  0.44 in
International Falls, MN:  0.33 in
Orr, MN:  0.31 in
Littlefork, MN:  0.29 in
Ely, MN:  0.25 in
Isabella, MN:  0.18 in
Cook, MN:  0.14 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.04 in

Weather Synopsis

An ugly late summer day but we’ve had quite a few of those this summer.  Another soaker in most of the Northland as widespread rain moved through the area today.  Low pressure was over west central Minnesota late this afternoon with deep moisture in place ahead of this system with PWATS of 1.30″ to 1.50″ as of 5 PM, this has led to some heavier downpours in parts of the area today.  Highs today only in the mid 50s to low 60s (Roughly 10-15 degrees below normal for August 26)

Widespread rain over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will continue into this evening but is forecast to decrease to scattered showers and drizzle from late tonight through Sunday evening.  Generally overcast through Sunday but a few peeks of sun could develop especially over western parts of the area Sunday afternoon.  Lows tonight in the 50s with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s with the warmest temperatures west of a line from International Falls to Aitkin where a few spots could approach 70 degrees late Sunday afternoon.

Slow moving area of low pressure at the surface and aloft over western Minnesota this afternoon will track toward the east/southeast, reaching southern Wisconsin by Monday.  This system will keep it pretty gloomy over most of the Northland into Monday.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Rain this evening with scattered rain showers overnight.  Drizzle and fog.  Low 55 to 58.  Wind east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Sunday…  Considerable cloudiness.  Rain showers and drizzle.  High 59 to 63.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Monday…  Mostly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  72
Low:   53

Sunrise Sunday:  6:22 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday:   7:57 PM CDT

Tim