/Issued 6:04 PM CDT, Tuesday, August 15, 2017/
21z HRRR model run.
Note: These past few storms sure look like something you’d see during the fall-winter months vs. the summer months. Very well developed systems for late summer! The next one hits Wednesday, lingers into Thursday.
Wednesday’s storm starting to come together this afternoon across the Rockies and Plains — Water vapor satellite loop through 5:30 PM, August 15, 2017.
A pleasant mid August day under partly to mostly sunny skies with a mixture of high level clouds and cumulus clouds over the Northland this afternoon. Highs today were in the 70s with a few locales up north making it into the lower 80s while mid-upper 60s prevailed closer to Lake Superior due to easterly winds to 20 mph today.
Most of tonight looks dry in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will range from the 40s in extreme northeast Minnesota to the 50s elsewhere. Several areas of low pressure will be over the Rockies and western High Plains tonight and these lows will start to affect us on Wednesday.
Ahead of the low to our SW will be a southerly low level jet at around 30-40 knots which will transport deep moisture into our area on Wednesday. PWATS this afternoon ranged from 0.70″ to around 1.00″ but by Wednesday afternoon PWATS will range from around 1.50″ to 1.90″ — So there is no shortage of moisture with this next storm.
Should see several waves of rain affect the Northland beginning Wednesday morning and lasting through Thursday morning. Embedded pockets of heavier rain will likely develop especially from late Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning, that’s when the surface low starts to deepen while lifting NE out of south central Minnesota. Good jet dynamics will also accompany this system, and this plus an increase in elevated instability with CAPE of a couple hundred J/KG should lead to some convective elements (Heavy bursts of rain and some thunder) in parts of northeast and east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday night.
Note: There is still some model disagreement with the placement of the heaviest axis of rain but this seems to be favoring east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, including the Twin Ports and Highway 2 corridor in northeast Minnesota — Rainfall totals in this area by Thursday afternoon could range from 1 inch to as much as 3 inches in a few spots. Rain totals in northern Minnesota should remain under an inch the way it looks now.
Rain Thursday morning is expected to diminish from west to east Thursday afternoon as low pressure lifts into the central/eastern Great Lakes region — Skies will begin to clear from west to east Thursday afternoon.
High temperatures Wednesday will be in the 60s and 70s so warmer than what it looked like 24 hours ago. Probably won’t be setting a top 5 coldest high temperature in Duluth or International Falls Wednesday (16th)
Thursday’s highs will mainly be in the 60s but far western areas (International Falls to Brainerd) could sneak into the lower 70s if skies clear soon enough.
Friday through Sunday looks a little better although still can’t get rid of those pesky rain chances. High temps Friday, Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be in the 70s, maybe up near 80 degrees. Also looks a little humid this weekend. There could be a few showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon, Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 53 to 58. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Breezy. Rain developing after 9 AM with occasional rain during the afternoon. Drizzle and fog possible. High 60 to 65. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
.Wednesday night… Breezy. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Lows in the 50s. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.
.Thursday… Rain during the morning. Mostly cloudy in the afternoon with some clearing developing later in the afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind becoming northwest.
Normal temperatures for Wednesday
Sunrise Wednesday: 6:08 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday: 8:16 PM CDT