/Issued 5:45 PM CDT, Wednesday, August 16, 2017/
18z HRRRX model
Radar loop through 5:20 PM CDT, August 16, 2017.
Red polygons=Tornado warnings
A bit of a lull in the rainfall here in Duluth (5:30 PM) but a lot more rain to come as the rain currently in southern Minnesota lifts north during the night with additional rain expected to develop farther north through the evening hours.
A classic looking storm (Sure looks like something you’d see during the fall months, not so much in late summer)
Water vapor satellite loop from August 16, 2017 (Ending at 5:15 PM CDT)
It’s been chilly not only here in the Northland but over all of the Midwest so far this month. Image below is the average temperature – Departure from average map from August 1-15, 2017.
Precipitation departure map from August 1-15, 2017.
First half of August Climate Stats for select cities
August 1-15, 2017
Average temperature: 62.5 degrees
Departure: -3.1 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 2.58″
Departure: +0.83″ above normal
International Falls, Minnesota
Average temperature: 62.0 degrees
Departure: -2.6 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 1.64″
Departure: +0.26″ above normal
Twin Cities, Minnesota
Average temperature: 69.1 degrees
Departure: -3.3 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 2.35″
Departure: +0.15″ above normal
St. Cloud, Minnesota
Average temperature: 64.8 degrees
Departure: -4.3 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 2.48″
Departure: +0.74″ above normal
Eau Claire, Wisconsin
Average temperature: 65.5 degrees
Departure: -5.0 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 1.72″
Departure: -0.53″ below normal
Average temperature: 60.5 degrees
Departure: -4.3 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 2.31″
Departure: +0.82″ above normal
Note: I think there is a fairly good chance that August will be a below average temperature month in the cities listed above — Although will likely have a few days of warmer temperatures the rest of this month, it probably won’t be enough to tilt us to above average temperatures for the month.
Took a little later for the rain to arrive today (About 2 hours later than what I thought for Duluth) But the rain has been spreading south to north across the Northland this morning and afternoon, however, most of northwest Wisconsin has been dry through 3 PM. Skies were generally mostly cloudy today but there’s been some sun in extreme northeast Minnesota and also over portions of northwest Wisconsin. Highs today were in the 60s and 70s with a gusty east wind near Lake Superior.
Surface map at 3 PM today had low pressure of 1006mb over northwest Iowa.
Rain tonight through Thursday morning as an area of low pressure strengthens while moving from far northwest Iowa to near Minnneapolis, Minnesota by daybreak — This low will then track E/NE through central/northeast Wisconsin Thursday afternoon before moving to the east of Lake Superior on Friday. The central pressure of the surface low is forecast to deepen from 1006mb this evening to ~998mb by Thursday afternoon (Quite a strong low for the time of year)
Abundant deep moisture is already in place across our area this afternoon with PWATS ranging from 1.30″ to 1.70″, in fact these values could climb a little more tonight to around 1.80″ in some parts of the area.
The forcing associated with the approaching low, and also with the strong wind maximums to our north and south will enhance the lift even more in our area tonight-Thursday morning which will lead to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall in northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin.
Elevated instability will also increase from S-N tonight with CAPE of 100-500 j/kg, this will likely cause a few thunderstorms to pass through parts of the Northland tonight with occasional lightning and heavy downpours being the primary hazards from that activity.
Rain will diminish from W-E Thursday late morning through the afternoon hours but overcast skies will likely continue at least into early Afternoon before a clearing trend takes place from W-E from mid afternoon through the early evening hours.
Low temperatures tonight will be on the mild side thanks to the clouds and rain. Lows will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. It’ll be cool on Thursday with the clouds sticking around at least for half the day, highs will be in the 60s except in far eastern parts of northwest Wisconsin and in far western areas in Minnesota where a few locations could climb into the lower 70s.
Highs Friday will mainly be in the 70s and there is a chance for a few afternoon-evening showers or thunderstorms.
Saturday looks mainly dry at the moment with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
70s and 80s for Sunday, also turning a little more humid with dew points Sunday afternoon in the 60s in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Scattered showers or thunderstorms are possible later in the day or Sunday night as a cold front approaches from the west.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Breezy. Occasional rain and drizzle along with some fog. Heavy downpours and a few rumbles of thunder possible. Low 57 to 61. Wind east at 15 to 25 mph.
.Thursday… Occasional rain during the morning. Rain diminishing in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy but some clearing is possible later in the day. High 61 to 65. Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Friday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 70 to 75. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
Sunrise Thursday: 6:09 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday: 8:15 PM CDT