Clear, cool tonight with areas of frost late mainly away from Lake Superior. Some sun, highs 60-65 Saturday (Cooler temps North Shore) Rain at times Sunday-Tuesday

/Issued 5:24 PM CDT, Friday, September 29, 2017/

Frost Advisory in blue on map below
This map shows the average date of when the first fall freeze occurs (32 degree temperature)  The first frost in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin occurs between mid September and early October.  Well within that range now for getting frost!
Incredible warmth last week — Check out all the daily high temperature records that were broken or tied during the week of September 17, 2017.
Also quite a bit of severe weather last week — Storm reports map during the week of September 17, 2017.
Weather Synopsis
Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies over the Northland today with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s which is near to slightly below average for late September.
High pressure which extended from Minnesota north to western Ontario Province this afternoon will lead to clearing skies over the Northland tonight with low temperatures in the 30s and 40s, outside chance for a few 20s in the typical cold spots.  Areas of frost will develop overnight through Saturday morning with the greatest chance for frost occurring away from Lake Superior.
Partly to mostly sunny skies for Saturday with high pressure moving toward the eastern Great Lakes while low pressure heads into the western High Plains.  A few showers could move into our area by Saturday night as warmer and more humid air begins to advect into the upper Midwest.  Highs Saturday will range from the 50s along the North Shore of Lake Superior to the low and mid 60s elsewhere.
Rain showers Sunday as a warm front lifts slowly into Minnesota — A strong low level jet aimed at the upper Midwest will continue to pump moisture into our area while a little bit of elevated instability moves in which could lead to an isolated thunderstorm threat as well.
Occasional rain and possibly a few thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday as a cold front moves slowly east across the upper Midwest — Rainfall could be heavy at times Monday and Tuesday with some flooding possible in parts of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
Event:  *Frost Advisory*
Timing:  1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday
.Tonight…  Mostly clear.  Patchy frost possible overnight mainly on top of the hill (Away from Lake Superior)  Low 36 to 41.  Wind east around 10 mph.
.Saturday…  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 59 to 64.  Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday…  Mostly cloudy.  Occasional showers.  High around 60.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Saturday
High:  59
Low:   40
Sunrise Saturday:  7:06 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday:   6:50 PM CDT
Tim

Cooler temperatures return Friday (Highs in the 50s) Patchy frost possible early Saturday morning

/Issued 5:02 PM CDT, Thursday, September 28, 2017/

Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

18z GFS model run















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu
















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop ending at 4:50 PM CDT, September 28, 2017 — Scattered showers will linger across the Northland through the evening hours.















Weather Synopsis

Started the day with a sun/cloud mix which gave way to overcast skies from NW-SE this afternoon thanks to a cold front which is moving through the Northland today — There isn’t a lot of moisture in place, but there was enough lift near the front which resulted in an area of mostly light rain showers which moved SE through northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.  Temperatures ahead of the cold front and showers warmed into the middle 60s to around 70 degrees, but as the showers and clouds moved in temperatures dropped into the 50s.

Low pressure north of Lake Superior at 3 PM today will drop southeast, reaching the northeast U.S. by Friday night — High pressure will build into the upper Midwest behind this area of low pressure, and that area of high pressure will be in control of our weather through Saturday morning.  

Scattered rain showers will persist this evening in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, otherwise will have partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Cooler temperatures Friday with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees.  Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast.

Note:  Patchy frost is possible in parts of the Northland early Saturday morning as low temperatures dip into the 30s away from Lake Superior.

Saturday looks dry during the day, but by Saturday night a few rain showers could move into the area but a better chance for some rain comes Sunday into early Monday morning as a strong area of low pressure along with a warm front and cold front heads east out of the northern Plains — Additional chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday as this system will be slow to exit the upper Midwest.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Isolated showers this evening otherwise partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 41 to 46.  Wind north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

.Friday…  Cooler.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 55 to 59.  Wind north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Saturday…  Partly cloudy.  High 60 to 65.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  59
Low:   41

Sunrise Friday:  7:05 AM CDT
Sunset Friday:   6:52 PM CDT

Tim


Milder Thursday (Highs mid 60s) Breezy NW wind, spotty showers possible. Cooler temps but dry Friday

/Issued 6:20 PM CDT, Wednesday, September 27, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

12z NSSL WRF-ARW model
















Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/















Weather Tidbits:

*82 days so far this year with a high temperature of at least 70 degrees at the Duluth Airport; The annual average is 86 days.

*20 days so far this year with a high temperature of at least 80 degrees at the Duluth Airport; The annual average is 26 days.

*5-day rainfall total (September 22-26) of 1.95 inches at the Duluth Airport — Average rainfall from the 22nd-26th is 0.67 inches.  Rainfall surplus of 1.28 inches.

*8 days so far this year with at least 1.00 inch of precipitation — The annual average is 6 days.

Weather Synopsis

High pressure covered the central Plains today but even with the high in control of our weather skies weren’t very sunny, in fact mostly cloudy skies continued today over most of the Northland with a few peeks of sun from time to time.  Highs today ranged from the mid 50s to low 60s which is right around average for late September.

After several days of southwest flow aloft we’re now in a northwest flow today with cooler temperatures covering the upper Midwest.  The 500mb flow will remain out of the northwest through Friday before shifting to the southwest once again this weekend.

Tonight — Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lows in the 40s but a few 30s are possible in the typical cold spots.

Thursday — Low pressure drops southeast out of northern Manitoba Province, passing just north of Lake Superior during the afternoon-evening hours.  A cold front attached to this low will move through the Northland on Thursday.  A mix of sun and clouds on the way for Thursday with a few widely scattered showers especially during the afternoon and early evening hours.  The combination of colder temperatures aloft (H5 temps -20 to -25 C) combined with milder temperatures near the surface will make the atmosphere a little unstable Thursday which combined with a cold front moving through the area should be enough to pop a few showers.  Highs will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with west or northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

Friday — Looks dry as high pressure settles into the upper Midwest behind Thursday’s cold frontal passage.  Cooler airmass moves overhead with highs Friday in the 50s.  Could be some patchy frost in parts of the Northland (Away from Lake Superior) early Saturday morning.

Note:  Dry weather should continue Saturday, but shower chances will be on the increase possibly as early as Saturday night but more likely Sunday into early Monday morning the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 45 to 50.  Wind west to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers possible.  High 63 to 68.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Friday…  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.  High 54 to 59.  Wind north at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  60
Low:   41

Sunrise Thursday:  7:04 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:54 PM CDT

Tim


Drizzle, patchy fog tonight. Some sun (Seasonable temps Wednesday) High 55-60

/Issued 5:36 PM CDT, Tuesday, September 26, 2017/

Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

A link to Wisconsin Fall Foliage report https://www.travelwisconsin.com/fall-color-report

Source:  https://www.weatherbell.com/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

12z European computer model from 9.26.17 — 500mb height map valid for Wednesday, October 4, 2017.

Rainfall totals from September 25-26, 2017
Source:  http://mesowest.utah.eduhttp://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Note:  Totals listed below are from 7 AM Monday through ~4 PM Tuesday

Ashland, WI:  1.57 in
Saxon, WI 1 WSW:  1.13 in
Clam Lake, WI 4 W:  1.01 in
Eveleth-Virginia, MN:  1.00 in
Isabella, MN:  0.99 in
Hibbing, MN:  0.97 in
Grand Marais, MN:  0.84 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.79 in
Phillips, WI:  0.79 in
Superior, WI:  0.77 in
Glidden, WI:  0.75 in
Hayward, WI:  0.72 in
Washburn, WI:  0.66 in
Ely, MN:  0.62 in
Solon Springs, WI:  0.61 in
Minong, WI:  0.60 in
Hill City, MN:  0.59 in
Brainerd, MN:  0.53 in
Orr, MN:  0.53 in
McGregor, MN:  0.52 in
Moose Lake, MN:  0.52 in
Cass Lake, MN:  0.49 in
Hinckley, MN:  0.41 in
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  0.40 in
Pine River, MN:  0.31 in
Littlefork, MN:  0.26 in
Walker, MN:  0.24 in
International Falls, MN:  0.23 in

Weather Synopsis

Light rain, drizzle with areas of fog were found over the Northland today as an area of low pressure lifted northeast into the upper Great Lakes vicinity while an upper level trough moved E/NE through the northern Plains and adjacent areas of south central Canada.  With the clouds and rain today highs were held in check with temperatures this afternoon ranging from around 50 to 60 degrees which is roughly 5-10 degrees below average for late September.

A break in the rain is coming! Low pressure and upper level trough will continue to move to the northeast tonight and away from the Northland — Lingering drizzle and scattered showers this evening followed by mainly dry weather overnight through Wednesday night.  Mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies tonight with areas of fog followed by partly to mostly sunny skies for Wednesday.

Lows tonight in the 40s with 30s in the typical cold spots.  Highs Wednesday in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

A cold front passes through the area Thursday as low pressure slides SE but remaining northeast of the Northland.  Could see a few spotty showers on Thursday but this doesn’t look like a real big deal at the moment.  Highs Thursday ranging from 60 to around 70 degrees.

Note:  Rain could return to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Sunday as a warm air advection pattern develops ahead of an area of low pressure, warm front and cold front which will be over the northern Plains from Sunday into Monday, this system heads east reaching the Northland Tuesday with possible showers or thunderstorms the way it looks now.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Drizzle and light rain showers this evening.  Mostly cloudy, some clearing at times.  Areas of fog late.  Low 44 to 49.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 56 to 60.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Isolated showers possible.  High 62 to 67.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  60
Low:   42

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:03 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   6:56 PM CDT

Tim

Gusty NE wind later tonight with rain. Rain tapers off to scattered showers by Tuesday afternoon

/Issued 6:07 PM CDT, Monday, September 25, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu















Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model run

















Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Radar loop through 6 PM CDT, September 25, 2017 — Should see rain fill in through the evening over east central Minnesota as the next wave approaches from the southwest.















Heat wave continues today in much of the Great Lakes and northeast U.S.
Source:  https://www.washingtonpost.com

*Chicago, Illinois hit 90 degrees today for the 6th consecutive day — This is the longest streak of 90 degree temps so late in the season.  Record highs were broken on each of these 6 days.

*Green Bay Packers played its warmest home football game ever on Sunday at Lambeau Field with a kickoff temperature of 89 degrees — And later the temperature hit 90 degrees for the 3rd day in a row.

*Burlington, Vermont had its hottest day so late in the year by 6 degrees Monday, hitting 91 degrees.

*Buffalo, New York hit 90 degrees Sunday and Monday, its latest pair of consecutive 90 degree days on record.

*Minneapolis, Minnesota had 3 straight days at or above 90 degrees, its longest stretch so late in the season.

*Milwaukee, Wisconsin which hit 95 degrees Friday, had its hottest day so late in the season by a week.

*Caribou, Maine (northern tip of the state)  hit 88 degrees Monday, its hottest day so late in the season.  It marked the 3rd straight day there in the 80s, its longest streak so late in the year.

Rainfall totals from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday (September 24-25, 2017)
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Babbitt, MN:  0.97 in
Bruno, MN 4 S:  0.70 in
Duluth, MN:  0.66 in (National Weather Service total)
Hibbing, MN:  0.56 in
Kabetogama, MN:  0.48 in
Duluth, MN (Airport)  0.47 in
International Falls, MN:  0.32 in
Wright, MN 3 E:  0.32 in
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N:  0.20 in
Cook, MN:  0.20 in
Wolfridge, MN (ELC)  0.18 in
Hayward, WI:  0.08 in
Clam Lake, WI:  0.06 in

Note:  3-day rainfall total at the Duluth Airport 1.12 inches.  Normal rainfall from September 22-24 is 0.41 inches.  Rainfall surplus of 0.71 inches during the last 3 days.

*5th warmest high temperature on record for September 24 at Duluth, Minnesota on Sunday.  See top 5 list below.

1:  85 degrees set in 1892
2:  84 degrees set in 1881
3:  81 degrees set in 2007
4:  80 degrees set in 1897
5:  79 degrees set in 2017

Note:  *2nd warmest low temperature on record for September 24 at Duluth, Minnesota.  Low temperature on Sunday was 63 degrees — Warmest minimum temperature on record for September 24 is 64 degrees set in 1891.

Weather Synopsis

Pattern change is well underway today as much cooler temperatures moved into the Northland after several days of very warm and humid weather.  Highs today were much more seasonable compared to previous days which featured temperatures some 15-25 degrees above average!  Temperatures this afternoon were generally in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees but the extreme southeast portion of northwest Wisconsin had one more warm day with highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees (Price County, Park Falls area)  Skies were mostly cloudy today with some rain showers passing through parts of the area.

Rain is forecast to become more widespread from south to north across the Northland later this evening and through the overnight hours as a wave of low pressure heads northeast out of the central Plains, moving along a cold which is now located to the southeast of our area.  Most of the rain that falls later tonight should be light to moderate in intensity although a few heavier downpours can’t be ruled out since PWATS will remain in the 1.30-1.50″ range through the night.

Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s to low 50s in northern Minnesota to the mid 50s and low 60s in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Rain Tuesday morning will give way to scattered lingering showers during the afternoon hours as low pressure tracks from southwest Wisconsin to eastern Lake Superior while an upper level trough lifts northeast out of the northern Rockies/western High Plains region.  Highs Tuesday will range from around 50 to 60 degrees.

Wednesday looks dry with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

A few showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday as a cold front moves through the Northland.  Highs Thursday will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Rain redeveloping this evening.  Rain and breezy after midnight.  Low 52 to 54.  Wind becoming northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph late.

.Tuesday…  Rain tapering to scattered showers.  Considerable cloudiness.  High 54 to 57.  Wind northeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming northwest during the afternoon.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High around 60.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  61
Low:   42

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:01 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday:   6:58 PM CDT

Tim