Snow on the way! Winter Storm Warning and Advisory in effect for Wednesday. 3rd coldest high temp on record today at Duluth and International Falls, MN

/Issued 5:53 PM CDT, Tuesday, October 31, 2017/

Here’s my snowfall accumulation map for Wednesday’s system zoomed in on the Twin Ports area.

-4-6 inches of snow possible around Hermantown and Arnold and northeast from there.
-Around 2 inches for Superior and Downtown Duluth.
-Generally in the 2-4 inch range for most other areas.

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest model future radar for Wednesday starting at 7 AM, ending Thursday morning at 7 AM.  Blue is snow, darker blue colors represent heavier snowfall.

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecast surface maps for Wednesday

November Climate Data for Duluth, Minnesota

Normals for the month

Temperature:  28.8 degrees
Precipitation:  2.09 inches
Snowfall:  13.7 inches

Warmest November on record:  40.6 degrees set in 1899; Coldest 18.8 degrees set in 1959

Wettest November on record:  5.08 inches set in 2000; Driest 0.09 inches set in 1917

Snowiest November on record:  50.1 inches set in 1991; Least snowy, trace set in 1928

Normal high on the 1st:  44 degrees; Normal high on the 30th:  28 degrees
Normal low on the 1st:  29 degrees; Normal low on the 30th:  14 degrees

Average number of days with at least 0.1″ snowfall:  9.  Most was 17 days set in 1996, 1993 and 1956.

Astronomical Data for November

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:51 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 30th:  7:31 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  5:52 PM CDT
Sunset on the 30th:  4:22 PM CST

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*Snow depth of 4 inches this morning, October 31, 2017 ties with October 31, 1951 for greatest snow depth on record on Halloween.

*This is the 4th Halloween on record with at least 1.0″ snow depth.  The other years were 1951, 1955, 1984, and now 2017.

*3rd coldest Halloween on record at Duluth, Minnesota with a high temperature today of 27 degrees, this ties with October 31, 1996 for 3rd coldest high temperature on record.  The coldest Halloween occurred in 1951 with a high temperature of 25 degrees.

*3rd coldest Halloween on record at International Falls, Minnesota with high temperature today of 27 degrees.  The coldest Halloween on record occurred in 1951 with a high temperature of 25 degrees.

Weather Synopsis

A very cold Halloween across the Northland with daytime highs only in the mid 20s to low 30s which is 15-20 degrees colder than normal! Skies were generally mostly cloudy today although there were some breaks in the clouds mainly over western-southern areas.

Tonight:  Mostly cloudy to possibly partly cloudy skies with lows in the teens and 20s.  Scattered flurries are possible this evening.

Wednesday:  A snowy day ahead with snow spreading from west to east across the Northland.  Highs generally in the 30 to 34 degree range.

Thursday:  Low that gives us our snow on Wednesday exits to the NE on Thursday.  A few lingering snow showers/flurries are possible during the morning.  A few peeks of sun are possible Thursday but overall skies still look to remain on the cloudier side of things.  Highs will be in the 30s.

Link to Minnesota road conditions:  https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Link to Wisconsin road conditions:  https://511wi.gov/map

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Winter Weather Advisory*
Timing:  9 AM Wednesday to 9 PM Wednesday

.Tonight…  Considerable cloudiness.  Low 23 to 28.  Wind becoming southeast around 10 mph.

.Wednesday…  Snow developing during the morning, mainly after 9 AM.  Snow during the afternoon.  High 31 to 34.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday night…  Snow during the evening.  Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches with up to 6 inches possible for the Higher Terrain of Lake Superior near and northeast of Hermantown.  Low 31 to 34.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph becoming west late.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  44
Low:   29

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:51 AM CDT
Sunset Wednesday:   5:52 PM CDT

Tim

Below average temperatures continue with some snow or rain showers possible tonight and Monday

/Issued 5:49 PM CDT, Sunday, October 29, 2017/

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Water vapor satellite image from 4:45 PM CDT, October 29, 2017

Source:  http://www.intellicast.com

Radar loop through 5:15 PM CDT, October 29, 2017.

Blue is snow
Green is rain

Source:  https://weather.us

12z European model from October 29, 2017 (Image below)

Note:  Top 5 coldest high temperatures on record for Halloween, October 31.

Duluth, Minnesota

1:  25 F in 1951
2:  26 F in 1879
3:  27 F in1996
4:  31 F in 2002, 1991, 1918 and 1878
5:  32 F in 1993, 1934, 1926, 1917 and 1895

International Falls, Minnesota

1:  25 F in 1951
2:  26 F in 1996 and 1917
3:  28 F in 1908
4:  29 F in 2002
5:  30 F in 2006, 1926 and 1911

Source:  https://weather.us

Not a lot of sun in our area this afternoon but there were some breaks in the clouds which allowed for some sun to pop out in some locations, nice to see!  By the way, normal high temperatures for October 29 are generally around 45 degrees, temperatures still running below average today.

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of October 22, 2017.

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of October 22, 2017.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

October 22-28, 2017

High Temperature/Departure from Normal

10/22:  59 F/+10 degrees above normal
10/23:  60 F/+12 degrees above normal
10/24:  46 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/25:  46 F/-1 degree below normal
10/26:  48 F/+1 degree above normal
10/27:  35 F/-11 degrees below normal
10/28:  29 F/-17 degrees below normal

Low Temperature/Departure from Normal

10/22:  45 F/+12 degrees above normal
10/23:  41 F/+8 degrees above normal
10/24:  35 F/+3 degrees above normal
10/25:  35 F/+3 degrees above normal
10/26:  34 F/+2 degrees above normal
10/27:  29 F/-2 degrees below normal
10/28:  23 F/-8 degrees below normal

Note:  Average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota for the week of October 22, 2017:  40.4 degrees (+0.8 degrees above average)  Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  0.54 inches
Normal:  0.54 inches
Departure:  0.00 inches

State Average for Minnesota for the week of October 22, 2017
Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  44.2 degrees
Departure:  +1.9 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  0.47 inches
Departure:  +0.04 inches above normal

Note:  There have been 25 Octobers on record dating back to 1885 that produced above average snowfall at Duluth, Minnesota.  The Normal snowfall for October is 2.3 inches.  Of those 25 — 9 winters that followed had above average snowfall, while 16 of them produced below average winter snowfall.

Note:  Winter is defined as the months of December, January and February; And the normal snowfall is 49.5 inches.  See list below.  Highlighted years had above average winter snowfall.

1933-1934:  38.0 inches
1925-1926:  20.2 inches
1995-1996:  81.2 inches
1966-1967:  54.8 inches
2010-2011:  39.8 inches
1936-1937:  52.4 inches
1926-1927:  35.4 inches
1955-1956:  45.4 inches
2002-2003:  15.7 inches
1951-1952:  38.7 inches
1919-1920:  19.2 inches
1992-1993:  50.4 inches
2003-2004:  74.1 inches
1991-1992:  32.8 inches
1969-1970:  55.2 inches
2006-2007:  34.3 inches
1917-1918:  26.4 inches
1987-1988:  30.3 inches
2009-2010:  56.5 inches
1984-1985:  35.5 inches
1916-1917:  22.2 inches
1959-1960:  54.6 inches
1990-1991:  34.6 inches
1954-1955:  52.1 inches
1906-1907:  32.9 inches

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*High temperature of 29 degrees on October 28, 2017 — First sub-freezing high temperature since April 27.  And the coldest high temperature since March 13.

*October 2017 ranks as 3rd snowiest on record with 10.6 inches of snow so far.  2nd snowiest October is 11.5 inches set in 1925.  Snowiest October on record occurred in 1933 with 14.0 inches of snow.  Interesting that both 1925 and 1933 ended up having below average winter snowfall.

*High temperature of 29 degrees on October 28, 2017 ties with 1910, 1905 and 1895 for 3rd coldest high temperature for October 28.  Coldest high for October 28 is 21 degrees set in 1925.

Weather Synopsis

Slightly warmer across the Northland this afternoon but still below average for late October.  There is a strong area of low pressure over western Ontario Province late this afternoon, and this low will head southeast, reaching the eastern Great Lakes area by Monday evening.  A reinforcing shot of cold air will move into our area as this low moves away for Monday and Tuesday with Tuesday being the coldest day.  Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 30s with highs Monday ranging from around 30 to 40 degrees.  Tuesday’s highs will only be in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Occasional snow showers in our area for tonight, Monday and Monday night, with some locations getting either rain or snow showers tonight and Monday.  Note:  Potential is there for a dusting to 2 inches of new snow by Monday night in most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with the area having the best chance to get up to 2 inches of snow occurring in far northern Minnesota.

A low pressure system moving through on Wednesday has a chance to bring a couple inches of snow to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but if enough warm air moves in, then that would cut down on snow totals as there would be more of a rain/snow mix in parts of the Northland.  Stay tuned.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few snow showers possible.  Low 30 to 35.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph becoming west.

.Monday…  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  Snow showers possible.  High 36 to 40.  Wind west to northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

.Halloween…  Mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 30 to 33.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  44
Low:   26

Sunrise Monday:  7:49 AM CDT
Sunset Monday:   5:56 PM CDT

Tim

Welcome to winter! Record breaking snowstorm hits Duluth, Minnesota today; Power outages, 60+ mph wind gusts, whiteout conditions in parts of the Northland today. Snowfall reports in this post

/Issued 5:45 PM CDT, Friday, October 27, 2017/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Winter Storm Warning in effect for the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin (Pink area on map)  Note:  Expiration times shown on map.

Source:  http://www.intellicast.com

Radar loop ending at 5:15 PM CDT, October 27, 2017.

Blue is snow
Green is rain














Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Today’s storm as seen on water vapor satellite imagery.
















Note:  Well, the first winter storm of the season did not disappoint! Actually, this storm overachieved especially in the Twin Ports area with snowfall totals of 10 inches on top of the hill, while below the hill (closer to Lake Superior) snowfall totals ranged from a trace right by the lake to between 3 and 6 inches away from the lake.  Rain changed over to snow early Friday morning on top of the hill with a few inches of accumulation already by daybreak.  Near Lake Superior rain fell during the early morning hours, but snow started to mix in after 3 AM today — A complete change over to snow near Lake Superior occurred after 6 AM today with near whiteout conditions at times this morning because of the falling snow and 30-40 mph north winds which produced considerable blowing snow.  Nothing like easing slowly into winter, right?

Duluth News Tribune story about today’s winter storm: http://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/4350193-photos-video-brighton-beach-parts-lakewalk-closed-due-storm-damage

Link to Minnesota road conditions: https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Link to Wisconsin road conditions:  https://511wi.gov/map#:Alerts

Power outages maps

Minnesota Power http://outagemap.mnpower.com/external/default.html
Lake Country Power http://mi.lcp.coop:82/#viewer-menu-parent

Snowfall reports from around the Northland for October 27, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Scanlon, MN 1 NW:  10.9 inches
Duluth, MN (Airport)  10.2 inches
Finland, MN:  10.0 inches
Holyoke, MN:  9.0 inches
Chisholm, MN:  8.3 inches
Esko, MN:  8.0 inches
Moose Lake, MN:  8.0 inches
Silver Bay, MN:  7.6 inches
Twig, MN:  7.0 inches
Hibbing, MN:  6.5 inches
Northome, MN:  6.4 inches
Ely, MN:  6.0 inches
Proctor, MN:  6.0 inches
Island Lake, MN:  6.0 inches
Grand Marais, MN 21 N:  5.8 inches
Two Harbors, MN 7 NW:  5.1 inches
Grand Rapids, MN:  5.0 inches
Crosby, MN:  5.0 inches
Hoyt Lakes, MN:  5.0 inches
Congdon Park, MN:  4.0 inches
Pine River, MN 7 WSW:  3.9 inches
Hinckley, MN:  3.5 inches
Breezy Point, MN:  2.5 inches
Gile, WI:  2.5 inches

Peak wind gusts for October 27, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Duluth Harbor:  63 mph
Devils Island:  57 mph
Bay of Grand Marais:  49 mph
Silver Bay Marine:  48 mph
Superior Airport:  44 mph
Duluth Airport:  40 mph

Snowfall records were smashed at Duluth, Minnesota today

Daily snowfall record broken for October 27

New record:  10.2 inches (through 5 PM today)
Previous record:  4.2 inches set in 2010

A single day snowfall record broken for October at Duluth, Minnesota

New record:  10.2 inches (through 5 PM today, October 27, 2017)
Previous record:  10.0 inches on October 23, 1933

Weather Synopsis

A chilly pattern into next week.  Snow lingers tonight and Saturday along the South Shore of Lake Superior with several more inches of snow likely by Saturday afternoon especially over Ashland and Iron County.  The rest of the Northland will have lingering clouds and snow flurries tonight followed by partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies for Saturday.  Lows tonight in the 20s to lower 30s with teens possible if skies clear enough before daybreak.  Highs Saturday in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Low pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin early this evening will move slowly E/NE reaching eastern Ontario Province by Sunday morning — This system will continue to bring some wrap around snow to northwest Wisconsin tonight with lingering lake effect snow on Saturday in favored N-NW flow areas.

The next low pressure system to affect the area will do so on Sunday as low pressure drops SE out of western Manitoba Province — Looks like we could get some snow showers or mixed rain/snow showers with this system on Sunday which will be followed by a shot of cold temperatures for next Monday and for Halloween with potential for some snow showers and flurries.

Note:  Use caution if you have travel plans around the Northland tonight with snow covered and slippery road conditions continuing in parts of the area, also any melting that took place this afternoon could refreeze tonight as temperatures drop below freezing.

Tim

For Duluth: Strong NE wind develops late tonight (Isolated power outages possible) Rain tonight, changing to snow Friday AM

/Issued 5:18 PM CDT, Thursday, October 26, 2017/

Source:  http://www.intellicast.com

Radar image from 5 PM CDT, October 26, 2017.

Blue is snow
Green is rain

Note:  The change over from rain to snow is forecast to shift slowly south/east through the night and into Friday morning.

Here’s my snowfall map for this event — Lowest amounts close to Lake Superior.

Couple things to keep in mind — This will be the first snowfall of the season, ground is still warm, some of the snow will melt initially. 

-Grassy surfaces will pick up the bulk of the accumulation. 
-Roads could become snow or slush covered if the snow falls heavy enough late tonight and Friday morning.

Latest winter weather headlines map as of 4 PM Thursday.

Pink area=Winter Storm Warning through 7 AM Friday
Purple area=Winter Weather Advisory through Noon Friday

Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

12z Duluth WRF model

Light winds in the Twin Ports this evening but expect northeast winds to increase big time later tonight with gusts possibly as high as 40 to 50 mph after midnight.

Source:  http://www.intellicast.com

Radar loop ending at 4:45 PM CDT, October 26, 2017.

Blue=Snow
Green=Rain

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Water vapor satellite loop from October 26, 2017 — Our storm continues to develop late this afternoon.

Source:  https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov

18z HRRRX model

First snowfall of the season on the way tonight and Friday

3 PM:  Low pressure ~1000mb was near Grand Rapids, Minnesota with cold air and snow occurring this afternoon over northwest Minnesota.  The cold air has taken longer to arrive in far northern Minnesota today thus little if any snow has fallen so far today (Through 3 PM) Instead, there’s been some light rain or a rain/snow mix at times in far northern Minnesota today.  The rest of the Northland hasn’t seen much precipitation, yet.  Just a few passing rain showers today under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies.  Quite a range in temperatures this afternoon with mid 30s along and north of a line from Bemidji to Orr while south/east of that line, temperatures were in the 40s with even some 50 degree temps in parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  Temperatures aloft ranged from 0 to -4C in northern Minnesota to +2 to +6C in northwest Wisconsin and in far eastern Minnesota.

The surface low over north central Minnesota late this afternoon will now begin to dig south/southeast as it moves into western Wisconsin by Friday morning, there will also be another low that tracks northeast out of western Illinois — Will see the two lows phase somewhat while a large upper level trough sets up over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes for Friday and Saturday.  This entire system will finally lift northeast and away from our area by Saturday night.

This storm will have many components to it including strong winds, rain, snow and colder temperatures.

For Duluth:

Wind:  Around 10 mph this evening, increasing to 15 to 30 mph by late this evening with gusts from 35 to 50 mph overnight into Friday morning.  Winds will be out of the northeast late tonight into Friday morning, then will shift to the north by Friday afternoon.

Precipitation:  Light rain at times through midnight.  Colder temperatures move in after midnight causing the rain to mix with and change to snow.  Looks like the change over from rain to snow will occur between 1 AM and 6 AM Friday on top of the hill.  Locations below the hill will have rain into early Friday morning, but even near the lake it’s possible that the rain mixes with or even changes over to snow for a time Friday morning, otherwise expect rain or a rain/snow mix below the hill during the day on Friday while snow falls on top of the hill.

Note:  The strong winds combined with falling snow will cause very poor visibility at times Friday morning.  In addition, scattered power outages are possible near Lake Superior due to the strong winds late tonight and Friday.

Total snowfall:  I’m still thinking 2-4 inches of snow by Friday afternoon on top of the hill with around 1 inch or less below the hill.

Temperature:  In the mid 40s to low 50s this evening, falling to between 32 and 35 degrees by 7 AM Friday, temperatures holding steady in the mid 30s Friday afternoon, falling into the 20s Friday night.

Link to Minnesota road conditions:  https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Link to Wisconsin road conditions:  https://511wi.gov/map

Link to Minnesota Power outage map:  http://outagemap.mnpower.com/external/default.html

Link to Lake Country Power outage map:  http://mi.lcp.coop:82/#viewer-menu-parent

Tim

Winter Storm Watch for northern MN Thu-Fri. Light rain at times for Duluth Thu-Thu night, changing to snow Fri.

/Issued 6:51 PM CDT, Wednesday, October 25, 2017/

Here’s the latest on the approaching storm for Thursday and Friday

Note:  A slower arrival of the colder air is possible, and if this occurs, then the change over times from rain to snow shown on the images below will be delayed

Tonight:

Approximate times for when the rain changes over to snow

Source:  http://www.weather.gov/crh/

A potpourri of weather headlines covering parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest and western Great Lakes

Forecast storm track through Saturday

Weather Synopsis

-Low pressure of 996mb was over southern Saskatchewan Province early this evening, this low is forecast to move into western Minnesota Thursday morning while a few other areas of low pressure develop over the central Plains.

-By Thursday evening, one area of low pressure is forecast to be centered along or near the Minnesota-Wisconsin state line while another area of low pressure heads into western Illinois.  Will finally see one main low take over Friday morning near the Illinois-Wisconsin state line, its this low that will then lift slowly N/NE through the central/eastern Great Lakes over the weekend.

-An upper level trough will also form over the upper Midwest Thursday and will become larger in size as it covers the upper Midwest and Great Lakes from Friday through Sunday.

-Light rain develops later tonight over northern Minnesota with snow or a mix in far northeast Minnesota.

-Occasional rain across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Thursday morning but as colder air moves in first aloft, then gradually down to the surface, look for the rain to change over to snow from north to south across northern Minnesota.

-The change over from rain to snow will occur farther south/east, including over east central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin and in the Twin Ports area sometime early Friday morning through late Friday morning the way it looks now.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 30s to low 40s; Highs Thursday in the 30s in far northern Minnesota to the mid 40s and low 50s in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Colder Friday with highs mainly in the 30s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Mostly cloudy.  Low 38 to 43.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Thursday…  Occasional light rain.  Breezy.  Mostly cloudy.  High 45 to 50.  Wind east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Thursday night…  Breezy.  Rain.  Rain mixing with snow after midnight on top of the hill.  Low 35 to 40.  Wind east to northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph developing late.

..Friday…  Snow on top of the hill with snowfall accumulations of 2-4 inches possible.  Snow or rain near Lake Superior with snowfall accumulations of around 1 inch possible.  Breezy.  High 35 to 40.  Wind north at 15 to 25 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  47
Low:   32

Sunrise Thursday:  7:43 AM CDT
Sunset Thursday:   6:02 PM CDT

Tim