/Issued 6:55 PM CDT, Saturday, September 30, 2017/
22z HRRR model run
Heavy rainfall could develop Monday through Tuesday morning in parts of the upper Midwest including east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin — There is a chance for flooding especially if thunderstorms develop and move over the same locations for several hours from Monday through Tuesday morning.
Monday’s thunderstorm outlook
Low temperature reports from Saturday morning, September 30, 2017
Bigfork, MN: 30 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN (Airport) 30 F
Crane Lake, MN: 30 F
International Falls, MN: 31 F
Fifield, WI 12 ENE: 32 F
Glidden, WI: 32 F
Hill City, MN 1 S: 32 F
Bruno, MN: 32 F
Namekagon, WI 3 E: 32 F
Brule, WI 11 SSE: 33 F
Ashland, WI: 33 F
Superior, WI (Airport) 33 F
Aitkin, MN: 34 F
Silver Bay, MN: 34 F
Phillips, WI: 34 F
Hermantown, MN 3 NNE: 35 F
Hayward, WI: 35 F
Embarrass, MN: 35 F
Cloquet, MN: 36 F
Cook, MN: 36 F
Moose Lake, MN: 36 F
Grand Rapids, MN: 36 F
Hinckley, MN: 36 F
Two Harbors, MN: 39 F
Duluth, MN (Airport) 39 F
Duluth, MN (Harbor) 48 F
October climate averages for Duluth, Minnesota
Normal high on the 1st: 58 degrees
Normal high on the 31st: 44 degrees
Normal low on the 1st: 40 degrees
Normal low on the 31st: 30 degrees
Average temperature: 43.2 degrees
Warmest October on record: 55.9 degrees set in 1963
Coldest October on record: 33.5 degrees set in 1917
Average number of 70 degree days in October: 2. Most was 12 in 1963
Precipitation: 2.85 inches
Wettest October on record: 7.53 inches set in 1949
Driest October on record: 0.09 inches set in 1895
Snowfall: 2.3 inches
Snowiest October on record: 14.0 inches set in 1933
Average number of days with snowfall (0.1″ or greater accumulation) 2
Astronomical Data for October
Sunrise on the 1st: 7:08 AM CDT
Sunrise on the 31st: 7:49 AM CDT
Sunset on the 1st: 6:48 PM CDT
Sunset on the 31st: 5:53 PM CDT
Top 5 snowiest Octobers on record at Duluth, Minnesota
1: 14.0″ set in 1933
2: 11.5″ set in 1925
3: 9.7″ set in 1995
4: 8.1″ set in 1966
5: 7.7″ set in 2010
A real nice fall day around here under partly to mostly sunny skies, highs were in the low to mid 60s which is near to a few degrees warmer than normal on this last day of September 2017.
Several waves of rain on the way through Tuesday!
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers affecting parts of the Northland as a warm and moist advection pattern gets underway thanks to a 40+ knot southerly low level jet. Certainly milder tonight than it was last night thanks to the southerly flow and more clouds. Lows tonight in the 40s and 50s.
Sunday: Occasional showers in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with some heavier downpours possible mainly over north central areas of Minnesota. Mostly cloudy skies for Sunday although some sunny breaks are possible in eastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Highs will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with the coolest temperatures from the Brainerd Lakes toward International Falls.
Through Sunday night will have a warm front lifting slowly northeast into Minnesota with a cold front and area of low pressure over the northern Plains — Ahead of this system will be a strong low level jet out of the south-southwest at 35-50+ knots, this LLJ will advect deeper moisture into the Northland, and will also help to increase the amount of elevated instability which may lead to a few thunderstorms in parts of the area Sunday or Sunday night.
Monday through Tuesday: This time frame could contain a greater risk for heavy rainfall which may lead to some flooding. A cold front will move into western Minnesota on Monday but could stall out through Tuesday morning before it gets a push to the south/east Tuesday afternoon. Deep moisture could pool near this boundary, and this combined with a low pressure disturbance riding NE along the front, interacting with the moist and somewhat unstable atmosphere could result in a swath of excessive rainfall somewhere in the upper Midwest. Note: Current model projections has this area of heavy rain setting up from southern into east central Minnesota into western Wisconsin, but this area could shift further west or east during the next 24 hours. Rainfall totals of 2-3 inches or more are possible in the Monday-Tuesday morning time frame.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers possible mainly after midnight. Milder than last night. Low 50 to 55. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
.Sunday… Considerable cloudiness (Few sunny breaks possible) Occasional showers. High 59 to 64. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday… Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. High around 60. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Sunday
Sunrise Sunday: 7:08 AM CDT
Sunset Sunday: 6:48 PM CDT