/Issued 6:10 PM CDT, Sunday, October 1, 2017/
18z HRRRX model run
The battle between fall and summer continues with a significant winter storm likely the next few days over portions of the northern and central Rockies while severe weather and a tornado threat exists this evening over parts of the western high Plains.
Temperature departure map for the week of September 24, 2017.
Precipitation departure map for the week of September 24, 2017.
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
September 24-30, 2017
High Temperature/Departure from average
9/24: 79 F/ +18 degrees above normal
9/25: 65 F/+4 degrees above normal
9/26: 57 F/-4 degrees below normal
9/27: 60 F/Normal
9/28: 68 F/+8 degrees above normal
9/29: 55 F/-4 degrees below normal
9/30: 63 F/+4 degrees above normal
Low Temperature/Departure from average
9/24: 63 F/+20 degrees above normal
9/25: 52 F/+10 degrees above normal
9/26: 47 F/+5 degrees above normal
9/27: 45 F/+3 degrees above normal
9/28: 46 F/+5 degrees above normal
9/29: 41 F/Normal
9/30: 39 F/-1 degree below normal
Note: Average temperature at Duluth, Minnesota for the week of September 24, 2017: 55.7 degrees (+4.9 degrees above normal) Source: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total precipitation: 1.33″
Departure: +0.43″ above normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of September 24, 2017
Temperature: 58.5 degrees
Departure: +4.5 degrees above normal
Departure: +0.40″ above normal
Rainfall totals for October 1, 2017
Note: Totals listed below are through 5 PM CDT, October 1.
Cass Lake, MN: 1.18″
Walker, MN: 0.87 in
Brainerd, MN: 0.74 in
Pine River, MN: 0.50 in
Hill City, MN: 0.23 in
Littlefork, MN: 0.22 in
International Falls, MN: 0.21 in
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN: 0.17 in
Orr, MN: 0.14 in
McGregor, MN: 0.13 in
Eveleth-Virginia, MN: 0.11 in
Moose Lake, MN: 0.07 in
Hinckley, MN: 0.06 in
Duluth, MN (Airport) 0.06 in
Grand Marais, MN: 0.04 in
Ely, MN: 0.04 in
Superior, WI: 0.03 in
Siren, WI: 0.03 in
Ashland, WI: 0.02 in
A large upper level trough covered the western U.S. today with widespread 30-60 meter 500mb height falls extending east into the northern Plains and upper Midwest per mesoanalysis page. Mostly cloudy skies covered the Northland today although there have been some breaks in the clouds allowing for peeks of sun. Rain showers have also occurred today with the heavier rains affecting western portions of the area, mainly from the Brainerd Lakes area north toward International Falls. Showers have been much more scattered farther east today. High temperatures on this 1st day of October ranged from the mid 50s in northern Minnesota to the low and mid 60s in eastern Minnesota, North Shore and northwest Wisconsin.
Tonight: A few showers this evening followed by a more widespread batch of rain which moves SW-NE across the Northland overnight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well late tonight. Lows will mainly be in the 50s.
Monday: Rain ends during the morning allowing for a couple of dry hours before the next batch of scattered showers and thunderstorms develops during the afternoon hours. Rain, heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms are expected Monday night through Tuesday morning over portions of east central and northeast Minnesota and in northwest Wisconsin. Highs Monday ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s.
A warm front lifts through the Northland tonight and Monday morning, with a cold front moving slowly east out of western Minnesota from Monday afternoon through Tuesday — Ahead of the warm front and cold front will be a strong S-SW low level jet of 40-50 knots, possibly over 60 knots come Monday night, this 850mb jet will pump deep moisture into our area, while the lift near the frontal zone helps to kick off showers and thunderstorms. Elevated instability looks highest Monday afternoon and Monday night and this is when a few strong to severe thunderstorms could develop especially over eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin — Note: Hail would be the main threat if stronger storms can develop. Of greater concern could be a narrow swath of excessive rainfall Monday night with rain totals of 2-4 inches possible, where that band sets up is still a little uncertain late this afternoon, but the area from south central up into eastern Minnesota, including western and northwest Wisconsin could be in that swath of heaviest rainfall. Flooding could develop Monday night especially if thunderstorms begin to move over the same location for a few hours. It should also be noted that the corridor of heaviest rain could shift farther west or east during the next 12-18 hours.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. A few showers this evening. Rain becoming more widespread especially after 2 AM. Low 50 to 55. Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Considerable cloudiness (Few peeks of sun possible) A few showers possible. High 62 to 67. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Monday night… Occasional rain with scattered thunderstorms also possible. Locally heavy rain possible. Low around 60. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for Monday
Sunrise Monday: 7:09 AM CDT
Sunset Monday: 6:46 PM CDT