/Issued 5:10 PM CDT, Monday, October 2, 2017/
18z NAM NEST model
Water vapor satellite loop through 4:30 PM CDT, October 2, 2017. Impressive looking system affecting the upper Midwest tonight with a threat for heavy rain and flooding while to the west in the colder air, a significant winter storm for parts of the northern and central Rockies.
Radar loop through 4:55 PM CDT, October 2, 2017 — Showers and thunderstorms expanding in coverage late this afternoon over southern, central and eastern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin…This activity is lifting toward the north/east.
Rainfall reports from October 1-2, 2017
Note: Totals listed below are from 7 AM Sunday through 7 AM Monday
Cass Lake, MN: 1.12 in
Brainerd, MN: 1.11 in
Hayward, WI: 0.52 in
Wright, MN 3 E: 0.42 in
Clam Lake, WI 4 W: 0.42 in
Grand Rapids, MN 12 N: 0.40 in
Winter, WI: 0.37 in
Ashland, WI: 0.35 in
International Falls, MN: 0.33 in
Duluth, MN: 0.32 in
Island Lake, MN 4 E: 0.31 in
Hibbing, MN: 0.27 in
Saxon, WI 1 WSW: 0.26 in
Kabetogama, MN: 0.22 in
Butternut, WI: 0.16 in
Embarrass, MN: 0.15 in
Hurley, WI: 0.15 in
Orr, MN 3 E: 0.14 in
Wolfridge, MN (ELC) 0.14 in
Cook, MN: 0.11 in
Grand Marais, MN: 0.07 in
Ely, MN 25 E: 0.07 in
Top 5 wettest years on record at Duluth, Minnesota dating back to 1870
1: 45.38 inches set in 1879
2: 43.44 inches set in 1991
3: 40.08 inches set in 1950
4: 39.96 inches set in 1876
5: 39.61 inches set in 1972
Note: The average annual precipitation total is 30.96 inches — So far in 2017 Duluth has picked up 31.29 inches of precipitation (Not including what fell today) If we get no precipitation the rest of this year (Not happening) Duluth would still finish above the annual average! Will 2017 break into the top 5? Still a ways to go to get there but will see what happens!
Heavy rain and possible flooding on the way for tonight
Late afternoon upper level analysis had a strong trough over the western U.S. while a ridge extended from the southern U.S. to Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes into the eastern U.S. Southwest flow in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere were found across the upper Midwest today ahead of the western upper trough and to the west of the upper ridge. A long fetch of southerly winds extended from the Gulf of Mexico to Minnesota with 60 degree dew points as far north as Minneapolis and Eau Claire this afternoon. PWATS have increased to between 1.50-1.60 inches late this afternoon over the southern half of Minnesota into west central Wisconsin with values of 1.20-1.40″ over northeast Minnesota and far northwest Wisconsin. On the surface map there was a cold frontal boundary that has moved into central Minnesota at 4 PM today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were erupting near and ahead of this front this afternoon from south central through east central Minnesota as forcing begins to increase over the upper Midwest.
Tonight: Rain and thunderstorms increasing in coverage this evening with rain persisting overnight. Heavy rain is likely at times especially from east central and northeast Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin where flooding could develop during the night. Rain is also expected at times tonight over northern Minnesota but the risk for flooding is lower for that area since rainfall will be lighter compared to areas farther south. Isolated strong thunderstorms could also develop tonight in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with 40-60 knots of deep layer wind shear in place along with strong winds aloft and elevated instability of around 500 j/kg. Gusty winds and hail are possible in the strongest storms. Lows tonight will range from the lower 50s to middle 60s with the warmest temperatures in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Tuesday: Cold front which will remain over central Minnesota tonight will finally get pushed to the east by Tuesday afternoon with this front moving out of northwest Wisconsin by late Tuesday afternoon. Lingering rain through mid morning will transition to scattered afternoon showers mainly affecting northwest Wisconsin. Highs Tuesday will be in the 50s in northern Minnesota to the 60s to around 70 degrees in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Note: 4th warmest low temperature on record tied on Sunday at Duluth, Minnesota. Low temperature on October 1, 2017 was 51 degrees which tied with 1931, 1916 and 1897 for 4th warmest low temperature on record — Warmest low is 60 degrees which was set in 1971 and 1891.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
Event: *Flash Flood Watch*
Timing: Through Tuesday morning
.Tonight… Rain with scattered thunderstorms. Heavy rain at times. Low 55 to 60. Areas of fog. Wind variable at 5 to 15 mph.
.Tuesday… Rain early followed by some clearing during the afternoon. High 60 to 65. Wind variable becoming west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
.Wednesday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 52 to 57. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Tuesday
Sunrise Tuesday: 7:11 AM CDT
Sunset Tuesday: 6:44 PM CDT