/Issued 5:18 PM CDT, Thursday, October 26, 2017/
Radar image from 5 PM CDT, October 26, 2017.
Blue is snow
Green is rain
Note: The change over from rain to snow is forecast to shift slowly south/east through the night and into Friday morning.
Here’s my snowfall map for this event — Lowest amounts close to Lake Superior.
Couple things to keep in mind — This will be the first snowfall of the season, ground is still warm, some of the snow will melt initially.
-Grassy surfaces will pick up the bulk of the accumulation.
-Roads could become snow or slush covered if the snow falls heavy enough late tonight and Friday morning.
Latest winter weather headlines map as of 4 PM Thursday.
Pink area=Winter Storm Warning through 7 AM Friday
Purple area=Winter Weather Advisory through Noon Friday
12z Duluth WRF model
Light winds in the Twin Ports this evening but expect northeast winds to increase big time later tonight with gusts possibly as high as 40 to 50 mph after midnight.
Radar loop ending at 4:45 PM CDT, October 26, 2017.
Water vapor satellite loop from October 26, 2017 — Our storm continues to develop late this afternoon.
18z HRRRX model
First snowfall of the season on the way tonight and Friday
3 PM: Low pressure ~1000mb was near Grand Rapids, Minnesota with cold air and snow occurring this afternoon over northwest Minnesota. The cold air has taken longer to arrive in far northern Minnesota today thus little if any snow has fallen so far today (Through 3 PM) Instead, there’s been some light rain or a rain/snow mix at times in far northern Minnesota today. The rest of the Northland hasn’t seen much precipitation, yet. Just a few passing rain showers today under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies. Quite a range in temperatures this afternoon with mid 30s along and north of a line from Bemidji to Orr while south/east of that line, temperatures were in the 40s with even some 50 degree temps in parts of eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures aloft ranged from 0 to -4C in northern Minnesota to +2 to +6C in northwest Wisconsin and in far eastern Minnesota.
The surface low over north central Minnesota late this afternoon will now begin to dig south/southeast as it moves into western Wisconsin by Friday morning, there will also be another low that tracks northeast out of western Illinois — Will see the two lows phase somewhat while a large upper level trough sets up over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes for Friday and Saturday. This entire system will finally lift northeast and away from our area by Saturday night.
This storm will have many components to it including strong winds, rain, snow and colder temperatures.
Wind: Around 10 mph this evening, increasing to 15 to 30 mph by late this evening with gusts from 35 to 50 mph overnight into Friday morning. Winds will be out of the northeast late tonight into Friday morning, then will shift to the north by Friday afternoon.
Precipitation: Light rain at times through midnight. Colder temperatures move in after midnight causing the rain to mix with and change to snow. Looks like the change over from rain to snow will occur between 1 AM and 6 AM Friday on top of the hill. Locations below the hill will have rain into early Friday morning, but even near the lake it’s possible that the rain mixes with or even changes over to snow for a time Friday morning, otherwise expect rain or a rain/snow mix below the hill during the day on Friday while snow falls on top of the hill.
Note: The strong winds combined with falling snow will cause very poor visibility at times Friday morning. In addition, scattered power outages are possible near Lake Superior due to the strong winds late tonight and Friday.
Total snowfall: I’m still thinking 2-4 inches of snow by Friday afternoon on top of the hill with around 1 inch or less below the hill.
Temperature: In the mid 40s to low 50s this evening, falling to between 32 and 35 degrees by 7 AM Friday, temperatures holding steady in the mid 30s Friday afternoon, falling into the 20s Friday night.
Link to Minnesota road conditions: https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf
Link to Wisconsin road conditions: https://511wi.gov/map
Link to Minnesota Power outage map: http://outagemap.mnpower.com/external/default.html
Link to Lake Country Power outage map: http://mi.lcp.coop:82/#viewer-menu-parent