Mild temperatures through the weekend. Light Rain/Snow possible mainly north of Duluth Fri PM. Colder pattern begins next Tue

/Issued 5:12 PM CST, Thursday, November 30, 2017/

Source:  http://wx.graphics

12z GFS model from 11.30.2017

Yes this will be a cold pattern for us once it develops.  A ridge over the northeast Pacific/western Canada region with another ridge over Greenland — All of this means that the arctic flood gates will be wide open, and pointed right at the upper Midwest and Great Lakes for early-mid December.  Probably a few different shots of cold air with this type of pattern, with each shot being colder than the previous.  Will we have lows 20 below, 30 below or colder in the Northland?  It’s possible by mid December!

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecast map valid for Friday evening

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM Nest model simulated radar starting at 11 AM Friday, ending at 2 AM Saturday.  Not a lot of precipitation on Friday, but there could be some light rain or wet snow across parts of northern Minnesota during the afternoon-evening hours.  Note:  Colors on map, green is rain, blue is snow.

Source:  http://wx.graphics/

CFS model

Note:  Temperature outlook for December looks good to me as we are entering a colder weather pattern which will begin around December 5, once this pattern becomes established it likely won’t change much at least through mid month, so will be dealing with reinforcing shots of very cold temperatures at least through mid December.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

CFS model

Note:  With the upper level winds constantly coming out of the north/northwest, I don’t like our odds for getting a significant snowfall in northeast Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin through mid December, but this pattern should be favorable for a few clipper systems that could lay down a few inches of snow if they track through our area and not go too far north or south.  I think odds favor near to below average precip/snowfall in most of the Northland for December, but the lake effect snow machine could get going along the South Shore of Lake Superior in northwest Wisconsin so that’ll be something to keep an eye on in coming weeks.

December Climate Normals for Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  14.8 degrees
Precipitation:  1.21 inches
Snowfall:  17.7 inches

Normal High on the 1st:  27 degrees; Normal High on the 31st:  19 degrees
Normal Low on the 1st:  14 degrees; Normal Low on the 31st:  3 degrees

Warmest December on record:  38.5 degrees set in 1877
Coldest December on record:  10.2 degrees set in 1983

Wettest December on record:  3.89 inches set in 1879
Driest December on record:  0.07 inches set in 1905

Snowiest December on record:  44.3 inches set in 1950
Least snowy December on record:  0.9 inches set in 1905

Average number of days with snowfall 0.1″ or greater:  13
Average number of days with snowfall 1.0″ or greater:  5
Average number of days with subzero low:  10

Astronomical data for December

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:33 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:53 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  4:22 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st:  4:30 PM CST

Note:  Today marks the final day of Meteorological fall 2017, the period from September 1 through November 30.  Preliminary stats for Duluth, Minnesota – Final numbers released on Friday.

~6 degrees colder vs. last fall
~0.60 inches wetter vs. last fall
~13 inches more snow vs. last fall

Weather Synopsis

Above normal temperatures to continue through the weekend.  Generally speaking will maintain a zonal west-east flow through Saturday before a trough moves into the Rockies which will help shift the flow to the southwest, once this trough moves away, that will signal the start of the shift in the upper level wind pattern from west-east to more north-south or northwest-southeast — Net result from all this is for more continued mild temperatures through Monday before we see colder temperatures move in by the middle of next week.

Another fast moving but weak low pressure system will skirt along the U.S./Canadian border on Friday, this system might wring out a little bit of rain or wet snow in northern Minnesota, mostly north of Duluth.  Otherwise we’re looking at mainly dry weather through Sunday morning.

Chances for rain are forecast to increase across the Northland for Sunday and Sunday night with lingering rain possible on Monday.  This precipitation will occur as low pressure tracks E/NE out of the Rockies while an upper level trough passes through the upper Midwest.  Note:  Cold air will be lacking with this system, so most of the precipitation should be in the form of rain with the exception possibly in far northern Minnesota where some snow is possible Sunday night or Monday.

As colder air pours into the Northland Monday night or Tuesday will probably see some snow showers develop with a dusting of accumulation possible.

Highs for Friday, Saturday and Sunday should range from the mid 30s to mid 40s, keep in mind that normal highs for the first few days of December are in the mid 20s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest.

.Friday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 38 to 43.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph becoming east.

.Saturday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.  Wind southwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  27
Low:   14

Sunrise Friday:  7:33 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:22 PM CST

Tim

Mild temps through the weekend followed by colder temps for next week. Little bit of rain/snow tonight mainly north of Duluth

/Issued 4:57 PM CST, Wednesday, November 29, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

7-Day Precipitation Forecast valid through Wednesday, December 6, 2017

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Water vapor satellite loop of today’s low pressure which is moving through the northern Plains and into the upper Midwest.

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Weather Tidbits:

*Record high temperature for November 28 at Ashland, Wisconsin.  High temperature was 54 degrees breaking the previous record high of 49 degrees which was set in 1986.

*3rd highest maximum temperature on record for November 28 at Duluth, Minnesota with a high temperature of 46 degrees.  The record high temperature for November 28 is 49 degrees set in 1899.

*Hibbing, Minnesota tied for its 3rd highest maximum temperature on record for November 28 (41 degrees) while Brainerd, Minnesota had its 5th highest maximum temperature on record for November 28 (45 degrees)

*5th highest maximum temperature on record tied for November 28 at International Falls, Minnesota with a high temperature of 40 degrees.  The record high temperature for November 28 is 50 degrees set in 1914.

Weather Synopsis

Roller coaster ride in temperatures continue with cold air last night replaced by milder temperatures today as we get back into a warm air advection regime ahead of a new area of low pressure which was over southern Manitoba Province late this afternoon. 

Highs today were mainly in the 30s which is 10-15 degrees cooler for some locations compared to Tuesday’s highs.

Low pressure will pass north of Minnesota tonight while a warm front and cold front move across the area.  A little bit of snow or rain on the way tonight mainly over northern Minnesota.  Snowfall should remain under an inch.  Milder overnight lows compared to this morning with temperatures tonight in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Rinse and repeat for Thursday and Friday as one low exits to the east, replaced by high pressure, then on Friday high pressure moves east making way for another quick moving area of low pressure which approaches from the west — Not a whole lot of precipitation though with that Friday system, maybe a light dusting of snow in northern Minnesota once again but that should be about it.

Highs Thursday will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s (Not much recovery from tonight’s lows)  Highs on Friday will be in the 30s and 40s.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Low 27 to 32.  Wind east at 10 to 15 mph becoming west at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Thursday…  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 32 to 37.  Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts possible.

.Friday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 35 to 40.  Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  28
Low:   14

Sunrise Thursday:  7:32 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

Wind gusts over 50 mph reported in parts of the Northland today (Scattered power outages continue as of 6 PM) Less windy for Wednesday, highs in the 30s

/Issued 6:09 PM CST, Tuesday, November 28, 2017/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecast surface map for Wednesday evening.

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z Euro Ensemble model from 11.28.2017

Note:  It’s still a ways down the road but a change in the weather pattern is still forecast to occur next week with colder temperatures returning to the upper Midwest, whether or not this will be accompanied by some snow remains to be seen.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z Euro Ensemble model from 11.28.2017

Weather Tidbits

*4th highest maximum temperature on record for November 27 at Duluth, Minnesota with a high  temperature of 47 degrees.  The record high temperature for November 27 is 60 degrees set in 1998.

*2nd highest maximum temperature on record for November 27 at International Falls, Minnesota with a high temperature of 42 degrees.  The record high temperature for November 27 is 47 degrees set in 1998, 1962 and 1918.  Note:  5th highest minimum temperature on record was tied for November 27 at International Falls with a low temperature of 25 degrees.  The highest minimum temperature on record for November 27 is 42 degrees set in 1962.

*3rd highest maximum temperature on record was tied for November 27 at Ashland, Wisconsin with a high temperature of 52 degrees.  The record high temperature for November 27 is 64 degrees set in 1998.

*2nd highest maximum temperature on record was tied for November 27 at Brainerd, Minnesota with a high temperature of 53 degrees.  The record high temperature for November 27 is 59 degrees set in 1998.  Note:  3rd highest minimum temperature on record was tied for November 27 with a low temperature of 30 degrees.  The highest minimum temperature on record for November 27 is 32 degrees set in 1962.

*5th highest maximum temperature on record for November 27 at Hibbing, Minnesota with a high temperature of 42 degrees.  The record high temperature for November 27 is 50 degrees set in 1998.  Note:  4th highest minimum temperature on record for November 27 with a low temperature of 26 degrees.  The highest minimum temperature on record for November 27 is 39 degrees set in 1962.

Peak Wind Gusts from November 28, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Northome, MN:  54 mph
Bayfield, WI 2 SE:  51 mph
Devils Island:  48 mph
Cotton, MN 2 NNW:  48 mph
Duluth, MN 1 E:  47 mph
Duluth Airport:  47 mph
Grand Rapids, MN:  46 mph
Cook, MN:  45 mph
Hibbing, MN 5 E:  45 mph
Ashland, WI:  44 mph
Walker, MN:  43 mph
International Falls, MN:  43 mph
Silver Bay, MN:  43 mph
Brainerd, MN:  43 mph
Ely, MN:  41 mph
Two Harbors, MN:  41 mph
Moose Lake, MN:  40 mph
Superior, WI:  40 mph
Hinckley, MN:  39 mph
Washburn, WI:  39 mph
Siren, WI:  37 mph
Hayward, WI:  35 mph

Note:  High winds today has knocked down some trees which has led to scattered power outages in parts of the Northland.

Link to Minnesota Power Outage Map:  http://outagemap.mnpower.com/external/default.html

Link to Lake County Power Outage Map:  http://mi.lcp.coop:82/#viewer-menu-parent

Weather Synopsis

Very windy conditions across most of the Northland as a strong area of low pressure passes well north of our area while high pressure builds in from the western High Plains – A tight pressure gradient between the low and high, combined with strong cold air advection helped to generate wind gusts of 25 to 45 mph with a few stray gusts as high as 50 mph today.  Late afternoon 850mb temperatures ranged from -14C in far northern Minnesota to -4C in northwest Wisconsin, a lot colder compared to 24 hours ago when 850mb temps were at around +10C. 

Surface temperatures remained on the warm side today despite the cold air advection, with the exception to this in far northern Minnesota where temperatures were in the 20s late this afternoon while 40s were common in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

A few flurries are possible this evening in northern Minnesota otherwise skies will vary between mostly clear and mostly cloudy.  It will be colder tonight with lows in the teens to lower 20s but a few spots up north could dip into the single digits (More typical temperatures for late November)

Partly to mostly cloudy skies for Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s in northern Minnesota to the mid 30s to around 40 degrees in far southern areas.  High pressure will pass through the region tonight and Wednesday morning before exiting to the east Wednesday afternoon.  Low pressure will then approach from the west, and this system will rapidly progress toward the east while dragging its warm front and cold front through the Northland — A little snow or rain is possible Wednesday night in parts of northern Minnesota but this shouldn’t amount to much.

Mainly dry conditions return for Thursday and Friday with near to above average highs Thursday with temperatures in the mid 20s to mid 30s.  Highs Friday will be above average with temperatures in the 30s to around 40 degrees.

Note:  Potential for some rain or snow continues for Sunday-Monday (December 3-4) but computer models continue to flip back and fourth between a weak system with light precipitation to a stronger system with more significant amounts of precip.  It does look colder next week, with the transition to a colder pattern forecast to occur between December 5-7. 

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Windy especially this evening.  Partly cloudy.  Low 15 to 20.  Wind northwest at 15 to 30 mph with decreasing to 10 to 20 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 31 to 36.  Wind southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.Thursday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 33 to 38.  Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Wednesday

High:  28
Low:   15

Sunrise Wednesday:  7:31 AM CST
Sunset Wednesday:   4:23 PM CST

Tim

Breezy tonight and Tuesday with 20-30 mph wind gusts. 30s tonight, near 40 Tuesday. November snowfall totals in this post

/Issued 5:34 PM CST, Monday, November 27, 2017/

Source:  http://coolwx.com/

Very warm temperatures over a large portion of the U.S. today.  Even here in the Northland temperatures today were above average ranging from the lower 50s at Brainerd, Hinckley and Siren to the 40s from International Falls to Moose Lake to Ashland.  Mid to upper 30s were found in northeast Minnesota, but even this is above average for late November.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Source:  http://coolwx.com/

Colored circles on the map represent stations that broke, tied or were within 3 degrees of the record high temperature for November 27, 2017.

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

















Note:  A top 10 least snowiest November on record for some cities in the northern Plains and upper Midwest.  Listed below are snowfall totals for November 2017, through the 27th; The second number is the average snowfall for November.

Marquette, Michigan:  16.1 inches (Normal:  24.4 inches)

International Falls, Minnesota:  11.9 inches (Normal:  13.7 inches)

Duluth, Minnesota:  10.5 inches (Normal:  13.7 inches)

St. Cloud, Minnesota:  5.7 inches (Normal:  8.4 inches)

Fargo, North Dakota:  3.3 inches (Normal:  7.9 inches)

Eau Claire, Wisconsin:  1.4 inches (Normal:  5.9 inches)

Rochester, Minnesota:  0.7 inches (Normal:  6.1 inches)  Tied with 1998, 1980 and 1958 for 9th least snowiest November on record.

Twin Cities, Minnesota:  0.6 inches (Normal:  9.3 inches)  Tied with 1913 for 7th least snowiest November on record.

Sioux Falls, South Dakota:  0.2 inches (Normal:  7.4 inches)  Tied with 1933, 1908 and 1902 for 4th least snowiest November on record. 

Weather Synopsis

Strong low pressure will track E/NE out of central Manitoba Province through Tuesday.  A cold front will move through the Northland tonight with cold air advection occurring on Tuesday as 850mb temperatures fall to -5 to -10C by late Tuesday afternoon. 

Mild temperatures for tonight with lows in the 30s (Normal lows are in the teens in late November)  Highs Tuesday still mild although cooler compared to Monday with temperatures ranging from the lower 30s in far northern Minnesota to the 40s in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

It will be breezy at times with south winds this evening shifting to the west/southwest later tonight and Tuesday, wind gusts of 20-30 mph are possible over parts of the Northland.

There could be a little bit of rain or snow in parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Wednesday night-Thursday morning thanks to another low pressure system that’ll move quickly through the region.  No significant accumulation of rain or snow is expected though.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Breezy.  Low 32 to 37.  Wind southeast at 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest late at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.

.Tuesday…  Breezy.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.  Wind west at 15 to 25 mph.

.Wednesday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 30 to 35.  Wind south to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Tuesday

High:  29
Low:   15

Sunrise Tuesday:  7:30 AM CST
Sunset Tuesday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim

Mild late fall temperatures continue this week

/Issued 4:16 PM CST, Sunday, November 26, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

Note:  Incredible warmth on the way for Monday, and although it will be cooler in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin compared to areas farther southwest, the forecast highs for Monday are still well above average for late November.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  https://www.ecmwf.int/

Signals showing up in the long range computer models for a shift in the weather pattern, but this possible pattern change is still over a week away so things could change.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

GEFS 12z model run from 11.26.2017

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

GEFS 12z model run from 11.26.2017

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

There is a powerful storm hitting the Bering Sea today with hurricane force wind gusts (75-100+ mph) Here’s an Infrared Satellite loop from Sunday, November 26, 2017.

Temperature Departure map for the week of November 19, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of November 19, 2017.  Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

November 19-25, 2017

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

11/19:  24 F/-10 degrees below normal
11/20:  38 F/+5 degrees above normal
11/21:  34 F/+2 degrees above normal
11/22:  22 F/-10 degrees below normal
11/23:  38 F/+7 degrees above normal
11/24:  41 F/+10 degrees above normal
11/25:  37 F/+7 degrees above normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

11/19:  7 F/-13 degrees below normal
11/20:  18 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/21:  14 F/-5 degrees below normal
11/22:  8 F/-10 degrees below normal
11/23:  16 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/24:  36 F/+19 degrees above normal
11/25:  18 F/+1 degree above normal

Note:  Average Temperature for the week of November 19 at Duluth, Minnesota:  25.1 degrees (-0.1 degrees below normal)  Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  0.09 inches
Normal:  0.46 inches
Departure:  -0.37 inches below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of November 19
Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  28.5 degrees
Departure:  +1.4 degrees above normal

Precipitation:  0.02 inches
Departure:  -0.35 inches below normal

Note:  A top 5 warmest high temperature is possible for November 27 in parts of the Northland.  See stats below.

Duluth, Minnesota:  Record High for November 27 is 60 degrees set in 1998.

2nd warmest:  51 degrees set in 1909
3rd warmest:  50 degrees set in 1962 and 1899
4th warmest is 46 degrees set in 1986, 1939, 1928 and 1918
5th warmest is 42 degrees set in 1997

Brainerd, Minnesota:  Record High for November 27 is 59 degrees set in 1998.

2nd warmest:  53 degrees set in 1960
3rd warmest:  52 degrees set in 1899
4th warmest:  48 degrees set in 1941
5th warmest:  47 degrees set in 1962

Hibbing, Minnesota:  Record High for November 27 is 50 degrees set in 1998.

2nd warmest:  47 degrees set in 1962
3rd warmest:  45 degrees set in 1986
4th warmest:  44 degrees set in 1997
5th warmest:  41 degrees set in 1939

International Falls, Minnesota:  Record High for November 27 is 47 degrees set in 1998, 1962 and 1918.

2nd warmest:  42 degrees set in 1986
3rd warmest:  41 degrees set in 1997
4th warmest:  39 degrees set in 1909
5th warmest:  38 degrees set in 1984 and 1920

Hayward, Wisconsin:  Record High for November 27 is 64 degrees set in 1998.

2nd warmest:  47 degrees set in 1941
3rd warmest:  45 degrees set in 2016 and 1997
4th warmest:  44 degrees set in 1918 and 1913
5th warmest:  43 degrees set in 2005 and 1966

Weather Synopsis

There is a bit of temperature contrast over the Northland today with upper 20s/near 30 degree temperatures in northern Minnesota to the 40s in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.  The reason behind this temperature contrast is due to more clouds in northern Minnesota today compared to areas farther south which had more sun, and there is also a cold front which was south of our area this afternoon.

The cold front which was more or less over central Minnesota this Sunday afternoon will lift north as a warm front on Monday with a very warm airmass found near and south of this boundary on Monday with 850mb temperatures ranging from +20C in southwest Minnesota to +6C in far northeast Minnesota — Will have highs in the 40s and 50s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with near 60 degree temperatures possible in far southern portions of the area (Brainerd, Pine City, Siren, Hayward) Even warmer temperatures farther south for Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s!  As for low temperatures tonight those should be in the teens and 20s but a few single digit readings are possible in extreme northeast Minnesota.

Note:  It does look a tad windy Monday and Tuesday with gusty south winds tomorrow shifting to the west on Tuesday.  850mb wind speeds are forecast to range from 40-60 knots so we should have some 25-30+ mph wind gusts over parts of the Northland for Monday and Tuesday.

A strong area of low pressure (980-985mb) will track from western Saskatchewan Province to Hudson Bay between Monday AM and Tuesday — A cold front attached to this low will move through the Northland Monday night, and cooler air will follow the passage of this front but highs Tuesday will still be above normal with temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

Note:  There is a slight chance for a little rain or snow Wednesday night as another fast moving area of low pressure with its warm front and cold front moving through the upper Midwest, but our next best chance for more widespread precipitation looks to occur late next weekend as the flow aloft shifts to the southwest which could help spin up a low pressure system over the Rockies or Plains, unfortunately should this system pan out, it looks warm enough for a lot of the precipitation to fall as rain across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for next Sunday-Monday, December 3-4.

A pattern change is possible around the December 6 time frame with more frequent/longer lasting cold shots, but will it be accompanied by some snow, or will it just be dry and colder?  Stay tuned.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Low 20 to 25.  Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.

.Monday…  Partly to mostly cloudy.  High 40 to 45.  Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.Tuesday…  Partly cloudy.  High 37 to 42.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  29
Low:   16

Sunrise Monday:  7:29 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:24 PM CST

Tim