/Issued 4:44 PM CDT, Friday, November 3, 2017/
Here’s my snowfall map for tonight’s event – Most of this should fall before 7 AM Saturday, except along the North Shore of Lake Superior where snow could continue at times through Saturday afternoon.
Another round of snow for tonight
-Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 7 AM Saturday from Brainerd to Sandstone to Hayward and Park Falls.
-Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10 AM Saturday for Floodwood, Duluth, Superior, and South Shore.
-Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10 PM Saturday for the North Shore of Lake Superior including the Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Tofte and Grand Marais area.
Snowing late this afternoon over central Minnesota, this area of snow will continue to lift slowly toward the north/east this evening, it should reach Duluth sometime in the 6-9 PM time frame.
Link to Minnesota road conditions: https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf
Link to Wisconsin road conditions: https://511wi.gov/map
12z HRW NSSL model – Future radar through Saturday evening
18z NAM Nest model – Radar simulation through 7 AM Sunday
Blue is snow
Green is rain
Note: Precipitation will stay in the form of snow tonight in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but as warmer air moves up from the south on Saturday, the snow will change to rain in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but in northern Minnesota, mostly north of Highway 2 also including the Higher Terrain along the North Shore of Lake Superior, the precipitation will likely stay in the form of snow through Saturday night thanks to enough cold air remaining in place.
12z European model 850mb temperature forecast
Next week still looks cold, especially from Monday-Friday (6th-10th)
Snow will lift northeast into east central and northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin this evening thanks in part to a warm air advection pattern over the upper Midwest coupled with a strong jet stream of >120 knots just off to our N/NE and ~100 knots over central Utah which is producing a decent amount of lift across central Minnesota. There is also a strong area of frontogenesis in the 700-850mb layer per mesoanalysis extending from far southern North Dakota to northeast South Dakota toward central Minnesota — All of these factors will help produce the next round of snow which will impact portions of the Northland tonight. Note: An easterly wind off Lake Superior combined with 850mb temperatures of around -8C could also cause some lake enhanced snowfall later tonight along the North Shore of Lake Superior including on the north side of Duluth.
Saturday: Mainly cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle. There will also be occasional bands of mainly light precipitation passing through the Northland. Precipitation types will transition to rain by the afternoon/evening south of Highway 2 in northeast Minnesota and over all of northwest Wisconsin, but north of Highway 2 in northern Minnesota precipitation should stay in the form of snow Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 30s to around 40 degrees with lows Saturday night ranging from the middle 20s in far northern Minnesota to the mid to upper 30s in northwest Wisconsin.
Sunday: Turning colder! Highs in the upper 20s to middle 30s. A few areas of low pressure passing through the northern Plains and upper Midwest through Saturday night will exit to the east by Sunday morning while a cold front pushes east and through the Northland Saturday night. Rain or snow showers are possible in parts of the area mainly Sunday morning.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
Event: *Winter Weather Advisory*
Timing: 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday
.Tonight… Snow developing between 6-9 PM. Snow overnight. Low 27 to 32. Wind east at 10 to 15 mph. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible by daybreak.
.Saturday… Snow showers, drizzle or patchy freezing drizzle possible during the morning. Areas of fog and drizzle possible during the afternoon. Overcast. High 35 to 40. Wind east at 10 to 20 mph.
.Sunday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Breezy. A few snow showers or flurries possible. High 30 to 35. Wind west to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Normal temperatures for Saturday
Sunrise Saturday: 7:56 AM CDT
Sunset Saturday: 5:48 PM CDT