/Issued 6:06 PM CST, Wednesday, November 15, 2017/
18z NAM Nest model future radar for Thursday afternoon (4 PM)
18z NAM Nest model future radar valid for Friday morning (10 AM)
Little bit of lake effect snow affecting the South Shore of Lake Superior tonight. Here’s a link to Wisconsin road conditions https://511wi.gov/map
There are some big differences showing up in the long range computer models for next week in regards to temperatures. The image below is from today’s 12z Euro Ensemble model which is a warmer solution as an upper level ridge is farther east into the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
12z GEFS model is a colder solution as this model has the ridge/warmer air west of our area while the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes is influenced by colder air and an upper level trough. Stay tuned!
Note: The difference in temperatures between the Euro and GFS models for late next week is incredible! See forecast below.
For Duluth – Thursday, Thanksgiving, November 23
High: 42 F
Low: 27 F
High: 8 F
Low: 7 F
For Duluth – Friday, November 24
High: 42 F
Low: 30 F
High: 10 F
Low: 2 F
Low pressure of 1002mb has moved into eastern Lake Superior late this afternoon with strong 12-hour 500mb height falls of 60-150 meters covering the Great Lakes per meso-analysis page. Cold air advection is occurring in wake of this system with 850mb temperatures down around -8C at 5 PM today.
Much colder temperatures for tonight with gusty northwest winds continuing due to the tight pressure gradient between the low to our east and an approaching high from the northwest. Lows tonight will be in the lower teens to lower 20s but a few spots especially up north could fall into the single digits. Northwest winds gusting to 25 mph will put wind chills into the single digits below to single digits above zero tonight.
Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies on the way for Thursday with highs in the 20s to around 30 degrees.
Note: Lake effect snow affecting the South Shore of Lake Superior tonight will shift to the North Shore of Lake Superior on Thursday as NW winds shift to the E/SE. Around an inch or two of new snow tonight for the South Shore while the North Shore only gets a dusting.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Breezy. Considerable cloudiness. Flurries possible this evening. Low 16 to 21. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph this evening.
.Thursday… Partly to mostly cloudy. Flurries possible. High 28 to 33. Wind becoming northeast around 10 mph in the morning, then east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon.
.Friday… Mostly cloudy. Some light rain or drizzle possible. Snow, sleet or patchy freezing rain also possible mainly during the morning. High 35 to 40. Wind south at 10 to 15 mph.
Normal temperatures for Thursday
Sunrise Thursday: 7:13 AM CST
Sunset Thursday: 4:33 PM CST