/Issued 5:46 PM CST, Thursday, November 16, 2017/
18z HRRRX model
Radar loop ending at 5:30 PM CST. An area of light snow (Blue area on map) moving east-northeast across northern and central Minnesota early this evening.
18z NAM Nest radar simulation beginning at 6 AM Friday, ending at 7 PM Friday.
Colors on the map
Purples=Mixed precip types
Link to Minnesota road conditions: https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf
Link to Wisconsin road conditions: https://511wi.gov/map
Still seeing differences between the Euro Ensemble and GEFS models for next week in regards to temperatures, and how far east an upper level ridge sets up. Stay tuned.
Note: The 12z GFS model from today has trended toward the Euro model with above normal highs for Duluth on Thanksgiving. Today’s GFS model now shows a high of 32 F for next Thursday, this same model 24-hours ago showed a high of just 9 above for next Thursday. European model has remained consistent with a high of 42 F for next Thursday, which is similar to the 12z run from Wednesday. The average of 4 computer models shows a high of 35 F for Thanksgiving, this is up from a high of 26 F on Wednesday.
Temperature departure map for November 1-15, 2017 – A very cold first half of the month!
Precipitation departure map for November 1-15, 2017 – Normal precipitation so far this month at Duluth, Minnesota while snowfall has been above average
First half of November 2017 Climate Stats (November 1-15)
Normal temperature: 24.1 degrees
Departure: -8.7 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 1.12 inches
Departure: 0.00 inches (Normal)
Total snowfall: 9.4 inches
Departure: +4.1 inches above normal
International Falls, Minnesota
Normal temperature: 21.4 degrees
Departure: -8.7 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 1.03 inches
Departure: +0.25 inches above normal
Total snowfall: 11.8 inches
Departure: +6.2 inches above normal
Normal temperature: 27.5 degrees
Departure: -7.1 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 0.38 inches
Departure: -0.47 inches below normal
Total snowfall: 3.1 inches
Departure: -0.1 inches below normal
Twin Cities, Minnesota
Normal temperature: 32.2 degrees
Departure: -5.9 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 0.30 inches
Departure: -0.61 inches below normal
Total snowfall: 0.6 inches
Departure: -2.8 inches below normal
Normal temperature: 27.7 degrees
Departure: -6.1 degrees below normal
Total precipitation: 1.23 inches
Departure: -0.34 inches below normal
Total snowfall: 10.6 inches
Departure: +1.6 inches above normal
There’s been some lake effect flakes and patchy light freezing drizzle along the North Shore of Lake Superior today as easterly winds developed, this will likely persist this evening while some precipitation in the form of snow, sleet and freezing rain approaches from the west, fortunately a lot of this precip should be on the light side tonight, but still could be enough to produce some hazardous travel conditions over parts of the Northland.
A broad area of low pressure will move east out of the northern Plains during the next 24 hours with a cold front connected to multiple lows moving through the Northland on Friday — Forcing will increase as this low/front crosses the area, so we should see an increase in precipitation across parts of the Northland for Friday — What type of precipitation falls will depend on surface temperatures which will be flirting with the freezing mark for some, while for others climbing above the freezing mark! Temperatures aloft are forecast to range from +1 to -1C at 850mb, and 0 to -2C at 925mb. Will likely be dealing with light snow, sleet, rain and drizzle in our area on Friday with even some freezing rain possible especially early in the day.
Lows tonight ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s with teens in far northeast Minnesota this evening before slowly rising temperatures occur in that area overnight. Highs Friday in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees with low to mid 30s in extreme northeast Minnesota.
Note: This weekend will turn colder once again with northwest winds helping to bring in this next batch of cool air. Could be some lake effect snow showers along the South Shore of Lake Superior on Saturday. High pressure will build in from the northwest over the weekend, and we might even see some sunshine in parts of the area Saturday and Sunday!
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Mostly cloudy. Some light snow, sleet or patchy freezing drizzle possible. Low 25 to 30. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
.Friday… Occasional light snow, rain and drizzle. Sleet also possible. Patchy freezing rain possible early. High 35 to 40. Wind south to southwest at 10 to 15 mph.
.Saturday… Colder. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 25 to 30. Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Normal temperatures for Friday
Sunrise Friday: 7:15 AM CST
Sunset Friday: 4:32 PM CST