/Issued 4:18 PM CST, Sunday, November 19, 2017/
18z NAM-Nest model wind gust forecast valid at 8 AM Tuesday
An impressive temperature gradient over the upper Midwest this afternoon with upper teens in northern Minnesota and lower 50s in parts of southwest Minnesota.
Temperature departure map for the week of November 12, 2017
Precipitation departure map for the week of November 12, 2017
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
November 12-18, 2017
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
11/12: 29 F/-9 degrees below normal
11/13: 34 F/-3 degrees below normal
11/14: 36 F/Normal
11/15: 36 F/Normal
11/16: 28 F/-7 degrees below normal
11/17: 33 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/18: 31 F/-3 degrees below normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
11/12: 20 F/-4 degrees below normal
11/13: 18 F/-5 degrees below normal
11/14: 32 F/+9 degrees above normal
11/15: 23 F/+1 degree above normal
11/16: 17 F/-5 degrees below normal
11/17: 28 F/+7 degrees above normal
11/18: 15 F/-6 degrees below normal
Note: Normal temperature at Duluth, Minnesota for the week of November 12, 2017: 27.1 degrees (-2.0 degrees below normal) Source: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.13 inches
Normal: 0.52 inches
Departure: -0.39 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of November 12, 2017
Temperature: 31.3 degrees
Departure: +0.1 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 0.07 inches
Departure: -0.32 inches below normal
Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota
*4 one-inch snowfalls so far this month; Average for November is 4.
*8 days with snowfall (0.1 inch or greater accumulation) Average for November is 9 days.
*October 26, the last time with an above average high temperature, 24 days ago! Will likely get an above average high on Monday, so this streak should end at 24 days.
Warm air is moving into the Northland and will be with us for Monday before another shot of cold air moves in for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thanksgiving.
850mb temperatures this afternoon ranged from +6C at Rapid City, South Dakota to +2C at Bismarck, North Dakota to -8C at International Falls, Minnesota. Warm air is moving in from the west, and will kick out the current batch of cold air which remained over the Northland today.
Lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s with highs Monday in the 30s and 40s. Note: Looks like the surface wind will be more out of the south vs. southwest in Duluth and near Lake Superior on Monday, so this may prevent us from hitting 40 degrees Monday, but either way it does look like will be able to get above the average high which is 33 degrees.
The warmer temperatures will be short lived, however, as another shot of cold Canadian air swooshes in for Tuesday through Thursday, helping to bring in this next shot of cold air will be gusty NW winds which develop late Monday night and continue through the day Tuesday. A strong area of low pressure ~987mb will pass north of Lake Superior Tuesday morning while high pressure ~1034mb approaches from the NW — The pressure gradient will tighten up between the low and high, and this combined with strong cold air advection will lead to the strong wind gusts for Monday night and Tuesday.
Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to be in the upper teens and 20s.
Note: The outlook for Thanksgiving is for dry weather but not as warm as it looked a few days ago, at least per Euro model data which has trended much colder the past few runs. The average of 4 computer models shows a high temperature of 27 degrees in Duluth on Thursday, and the Euro model which showed highs in the low 40s a few days ago, now shows a high of 28 degrees on Thursday. Quite a change! GEFS, GFS and Canadian computer models have for the most part stuck with the cooler regime for a few days, so this is a case where the Euro trended toward the GFS model, doesn’t happen very often.
No signs of any big storm impacting the Northland through next weekend. There is a system showing up for Friday-Saturday (24th-25th) but at the moment it looks like the surface low will pass north of our area which would limit the amount of rain or snow that falls in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 17 to 22. Wind south around 10 mph.
.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 36 to 41. Wind south at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Colder. Windy. Partly to mostly cloudy. High around 25. Wind northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph.
Normal temperatures for Monday
Sunrise Monday: 7:19 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:29 PM CST