/Issued 4:16 PM CST, Sunday, November 26, 2017/
Note: Incredible warmth on the way for Monday, and although it will be cooler in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin compared to areas farther southwest, the forecast highs for Monday are still well above average for late November.
Signals showing up in the long range computer models for a shift in the weather pattern, but this possible pattern change is still over a week away so things could change.
GEFS 12z model run from 11.26.2017
GEFS 12z model run from 11.26.2017
There is a powerful storm hitting the Bering Sea today with hurricane force wind gusts (75-100+ mph) Here’s an Infrared Satellite loop from Sunday, November 26, 2017.
Temperature Departure map for the week of November 19, 2017. Source: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu
Precipitation departure map for the week of November 19, 2017. Source: http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
November 19-25, 2017
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
11/19: 24 F/-10 degrees below normal
11/20: 38 F/+5 degrees above normal
11/21: 34 F/+2 degrees above normal
11/22: 22 F/-10 degrees below normal
11/23: 38 F/+7 degrees above normal
11/24: 41 F/+10 degrees above normal
11/25: 37 F/+7 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
11/19: 7 F/-13 degrees below normal
11/20: 18 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/21: 14 F/-5 degrees below normal
11/22: 8 F/-10 degrees below normal
11/23: 16 F/-2 degrees below normal
11/24: 36 F/+19 degrees above normal
11/25: 18 F/+1 degree above normal
Note: Average Temperature for the week of November 19 at Duluth, Minnesota: 25.1 degrees (-0.1 degrees below normal) Source: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.09 inches
Normal: 0.46 inches
Departure: -0.37 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of November 19
Temperature: 28.5 degrees
Departure: +1.4 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 0.02 inches
Departure: -0.35 inches below normal
Note: A top 5 warmest high temperature is possible for November 27 in parts of the Northland. See stats below.
Duluth, Minnesota: Record High for November 27 is 60 degrees set in 1998.
2nd warmest: 51 degrees set in 1909
3rd warmest: 50 degrees set in 1962 and 1899
4th warmest is 46 degrees set in 1986, 1939, 1928 and 1918
5th warmest is 42 degrees set in 1997
Brainerd, Minnesota: Record High for November 27 is 59 degrees set in 1998.
2nd warmest: 53 degrees set in 1960
3rd warmest: 52 degrees set in 1899
4th warmest: 48 degrees set in 1941
5th warmest: 47 degrees set in 1962
Hibbing, Minnesota: Record High for November 27 is 50 degrees set in 1998.
2nd warmest: 47 degrees set in 1962
3rd warmest: 45 degrees set in 1986
4th warmest: 44 degrees set in 1997
5th warmest: 41 degrees set in 1939
International Falls, Minnesota: Record High for November 27 is 47 degrees set in 1998, 1962 and 1918.
2nd warmest: 42 degrees set in 1986
3rd warmest: 41 degrees set in 1997
4th warmest: 39 degrees set in 1909
5th warmest: 38 degrees set in 1984 and 1920
Hayward, Wisconsin: Record High for November 27 is 64 degrees set in 1998.
2nd warmest: 47 degrees set in 1941
3rd warmest: 45 degrees set in 2016 and 1997
4th warmest: 44 degrees set in 1918 and 1913
5th warmest: 43 degrees set in 2005 and 1966
There is a bit of temperature contrast over the Northland today with upper 20s/near 30 degree temperatures in northern Minnesota to the 40s in east central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. The reason behind this temperature contrast is due to more clouds in northern Minnesota today compared to areas farther south which had more sun, and there is also a cold front which was south of our area this afternoon.
The cold front which was more or less over central Minnesota this Sunday afternoon will lift north as a warm front on Monday with a very warm airmass found near and south of this boundary on Monday with 850mb temperatures ranging from +20C in southwest Minnesota to +6C in far northeast Minnesota — Will have highs in the 40s and 50s in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with near 60 degree temperatures possible in far southern portions of the area (Brainerd, Pine City, Siren, Hayward) Even warmer temperatures farther south for Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s! As for low temperatures tonight those should be in the teens and 20s but a few single digit readings are possible in extreme northeast Minnesota.
Note: It does look a tad windy Monday and Tuesday with gusty south winds tomorrow shifting to the west on Tuesday. 850mb wind speeds are forecast to range from 40-60 knots so we should have some 25-30+ mph wind gusts over parts of the Northland for Monday and Tuesday.
A strong area of low pressure (980-985mb) will track from western Saskatchewan Province to Hudson Bay between Monday AM and Tuesday — A cold front attached to this low will move through the Northland Monday night, and cooler air will follow the passage of this front but highs Tuesday will still be above normal with temperatures in the 30s and 40s.
Note: There is a slight chance for a little rain or snow Wednesday night as another fast moving area of low pressure with its warm front and cold front moving through the upper Midwest, but our next best chance for more widespread precipitation looks to occur late next weekend as the flow aloft shifts to the southwest which could help spin up a low pressure system over the Rockies or Plains, unfortunately should this system pan out, it looks warm enough for a lot of the precipitation to fall as rain across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for next Sunday-Monday, December 3-4.
A pattern change is possible around the December 6 time frame with more frequent/longer lasting cold shots, but will it be accompanied by some snow, or will it just be dry and colder? Stay tuned.
Forecast for Duluth and Superior
.Tonight… Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 20 to 25. Wind becoming east at 5 to 15 mph.
.Monday… Partly to mostly cloudy. High 40 to 45. Wind east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
.Tuesday… Partly cloudy. High 37 to 42. Wind west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts possible.
Normal temperatures for Monday
Sunrise Monday: 7:29 AM CST
Sunset Monday: 4:24 PM CST