Frigid tonight. Highs ~0 F New Year’s Day, single digits above Tue; Arctic air returns midweek

/Issued 4:29 PM CST, Sunday, December 31, 2017/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Source:  https://www.glerl.noaa.gov

With continued cold temperatures this week, ice coverage should continue to increase not only on Lake Superior but for the other Great Lakes as well which had ~15% ice coverage as of December 30.

Source:  https://www.ecmwf.int

12z European Computer Model from 12.31.2017, valid for Wednesday, January 10, 2018.
850mb temperature forecast. 

Note:  We’re looking at more very cold temperatures this week, although will likely climb above zero a few days this week, but overnight lows look to remain subzero through the end of the week.  Daytime highs in the teens, maybe even the 20s are possible for the 2nd week of January but this could easily change in coming days.

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Temperature departure map for the week of December 24, 2017.

Source:  http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu

Precipitation departure map for the week of December 24, 2017.

Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota

December 24-30, 2017

High Temperatures/Departure from Normal

12/24:  16 F/-4 degrees below normal
12/25:  -8 F/-28 degrees below normal
12/26:  -8 F/-28 degrees below normal
12/27:  -3 F/-23 degrees below normal
12/28:  1 F/-19 degrees below normal
12/29:  -1 F/-20 degrees below normal
12/30:  -7 F/-26 degrees below normal

Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal

12/24:  -8 F/-12 degrees below normal
12/25:  -18 F/-22 degrees below normal
12/26:  -21 F/-25 degrees below normal
12/27:  -23 F/-27 degrees below normal
12/28:  -15 F/-18 degrees below normal
12/29:  -13 F/-16 degrees below normal
12/30:  -20 F/-23 degrees below normal

Note:  Average temperature for the week of December 24, 2017 at Duluth, Minnesota:  -9.1 degrees (-20.8 degrees below normal)  Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Total Precipitation:  0.11 inches
Normal:  0.26 inches
Departure:  -0.15 inches below normal

State Average for Minnesota for the week of December 24, 2017
Source:  http://www.dnr.state.mn.us

Temperature:  -3.3 degrees
Departure:  -16.5 degrees below normal

Precipitation:  0.10 inches
Departure:  -0.10 inches below normal

Note:  A nice writeup by Mark Seeley on the weather events of 2017.  Two part link below.

Part one:  http://blog-weathertalk.extension.umn.edu/2017/12/oscillating-december-temperatures-and.html

Part two:  http://blog-weathertalk.extension.umn.edu/2017/12/cold-conclusion-to-december.html

Weather Tidbits

*8 subzero nights in a row (so far) at Duluth, Minnesota.  4 of the 8 nights had a low temperature of -20 degrees or colder.

*12 subzero nights in a row (so far) at International Falls, Minnesota.  8 of the 12 nights had a low temperature of -20 degrees or colder; 3 of the 12 nights -30 degrees or colder.

*Low temperature of -26 degrees at the Duluth Airport on Sunday morning, December 31, 2017 is the coldest temperature at the Duluth Airport since January 6, 2014 (-28 degrees)

*Top 5 lowest maximum temperature on record for December 30 at Duluth, International Falls, and Hibbing, while Brainerd had its lowest maximum temperature on record for December 30.

*Around 72 consecutive hours (so far) with a subzero temperature at the Duluth Airport.  Temperature fell below zero late Thursday afternoon, December 28, remains below zero as of 4 PM, December 31.

January Climate Averages/Records for Duluth, Minnesota

Temperature:  10.2 degrees
Precipitation:  0.96 inches
Snowfall:  19.4 inches

Warmest January on record:  23.7 degrees set in 2006
Coldest January on record:  -7.2 degrees set in 1912

Wettest January on record:  4.70 inches set in 1969
Driest January on record:  0.13 inches set in 2008

Snowiest January on record:  46.8 inches set in 1969
Least snowiest January on record:  2.0 inches set in 1921

Number of days with snowfall 0.1″ or greater accumulation:  13 days
Number of days with snowfall 1.0″ or greater accumulation:  5 days

Normal high on the 1st:  19 degrees
Normal high on the 31st:  20 degrees

Normal low on the 1st:  3 degrees
Normal low on the 31st:  2 degrees

Astronomical Data for January 

Sunrise on the 1st:  7:54 AM CST
Sunrise on the 31st:  7:33 AM CST

Sunset on the 1st:  4:31 PM CST
Sunset on the 31st:  5:10 PM CST

Low temperature reports from Sunday morning, December 31, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Embarrass, MN:  -45 F
Bigfork, MN 2 NNE:  -38 F
Effie, MN 7 E:  -37 F
Kabetogama, MN:  -37 F
Bigfork, MN:  -36 F
Togo, MN:  -36 F
Ely, MN:  -35 F
Cass Lake, MN:  -35 F
Longville, MN: -35 F
Crane Lake, MN:  -35 F
Northome, MN:  -34 F
Pine River, MN:  -33 F
Walker, MN:  -33 F
Orr, MN:  -33 F
Brainerd, MN:  -31 F
Isabella, MN 1 W:  -31 F
International Falls, MN:  -30 F
Grand Rapids, MN:  -30 F
Aitkin, MN:  -29 F
Proctor, MN 2 SW:  -27 F
Bruno, MN 4 S:  -27 F
Twig, MN 3 WNW:  -27 F
Brule, WI 11 SSE:  -27 F
Cloquet, MN:  -27 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  -27 F
Hayward, WI:  -26 F
McGregor, MN:  -26 F
Moose Lake, MN:  -26 F
Duluth Airport:  -26 F
Clam Lake, WI 3 W:  -26 F
Grand Marais Airport:  -26 F
Butternut, WI 3 N:  -25 F
Oliver, WI 2 ENE:  -25 F
Siren, WI:  -24 F
Superior Airport:  -23 F
Hinckley, MN:  -22 F
Two Harbors, MN:  -20 F
Silver Bay, MN:  -20 F
Glidden, WI:  -20 F
Ashland, WI:  -19 F
Duluth Harbor:  -18 F

Coldest wind chill reports from Sunday morning, December 31, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Palmers, MN 2 WNW:  -54 F
Silver Bay Marine:  -49 F
Duluth Airport:  -49 F
International Falls, MN:  -48 F
Cloquet, MN:  -47 F
Grand Rapids, MN:  -47 F
Grand Marais Airport:  -46 F
Two Harbors, MN:  -45 F
Northome, MN:  -44 F
Walker, MN:  -43 F
Bay of Grand Marais:  -43 F
Brainerd, MN:  -43 F
Siren, WI:  -41 F
Superior Airport:  -40 F
Duluth Harbor:  -37 F
Phillips, WI:  -36 F
Hayward, WI:  -34 F

Weather Synopsis

The final day of 2017 was a cold one! Arctic airmass remains over the Northland, although temperatures aloft have ‘warmed’ up slightly with late afternoon 850mb temperatures around -22C this thanks to a little bit of warm air advection.  Highs today were only in the single digits and teens below zero.  Arctic high pressure ~1048mb covered the northern Plains which led to a lot of sunshine today over the majority of the area.

Bitterly cold temperatures will continue tonight under clear to partly cloudy skies.  Lows will be in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero.  Will warm up just a little bit on Monday with highs in the single digits below to single digits above zero, skies will vary between mostly sunny and partly sunny.

Our next opportunity for a dusting of snow looks to occur Tuesday afternoon or evening as a cold front moves southeast through the Northland, behind the front will be a reinforcing shot of arctic air.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Wind Chill Warning for Duluth*
Timing:  Until 11 AM CST Monday

Event:  *Wind Chill Advisory for Superior*
Timing:  Until 11 AM CST Monday

.Tonight…  Frigid.  Mostly clear.  Low 14 below to 19 below.  Wind west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.  Wind chills 25 below to 45 below.

.New Year’s Day…  Very cold.  Partly cloudy.  High 2 below to 3 above zero.  Wind west at 10 to 20 mph.  Morning wind chills 25 below to 45 below.

.Tuesday…  Increasing cloudiness.  Light snow possible later in the day.  High 5 to 10 above.  Wind southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Monday

High:  19
Low:     3

Sunrise Monday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Monday:   4:31 PM CST

Tim

Arctic blast continues! 2nd coldest High on record today (Dec 30) at Duluth and International Falls, MN

/Issued 6:42 PM CST, Saturday, December 30, 2017/

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com

21z HRRR model


Source:  http://wx.graphics/

21z HRRR model — Another brutally cold night ahead of us with dangerously cold wind chills.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

Goes-16 Visible satellite loop from Saturday, December 30, 2017 — Cool things happening over Lake Superior today including a meso-low which developed this morning, and made landfall late this morning along a portion of the South Shore of Lake Superior in upper Michigan, this meso-low produced whiteout-blizzard conditions for a few hours today in upper Michigan.












Low temperature reports from Saturday morning, December 30, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Embarrass, MN:  -33 F
Ely, MN 25 E:  -27 F
Kabetogama, MN:  -26 F
Northome, MN:  -25 F
Butternut, WI 3 N:  -24 F
Cass Lake, MN:  -24 F
Walker, MN:  -23 F
Clam Lake, WI 4 W:  -23 F
Pine River, MN:  -22 F
Littlefork, MN:  -22 F
Grand Rapids, MN:  -22 F
International Falls, MN:  -22 F
Hibbing, MN:  -21 F
Orr, MN:  -20 F
Crane Lake, MN:  -20 F
Bigfork, MN:  -20 F
Aitkin, MN:  -20 F
Island Lake, MN 4 E:  -20 F
Brainerd, MN:  -19 F
Duluth Airport:  -18 F
Ely, MN:  -18 F
Moose Lake, MN:  -18 F
Cloquet, MN:  -18 F
Hinckley, MN:  -17 F
Solon Springs, WI:  -17 F
Siren, WI:  -17 F
Phillips, WI:  -16 F
Hayward, WI:  -16 F
Grand Marais, MN (Airport)  -15 F
Superior Airport:  -14 F
Silver Bay, MN:  -13 F
Duluth Harbor:  -11 F
Two Harbors, MN:  -11 F

Coldest wind chill reports from Saturday morning, December 30, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Grand Rapids, MN:  -48 F
Chisholm-Hibbing Airport:  -47 F
Walker, MN:  -46 F
Duluth Airport:  -44 F
Cloquet, MN:  -43 F
Northome, MN:  -42 F
Longville, MN:  -42 F
International Falls, MN:  -42 F
Aitkin, MN:  -41 F
Orr, MN:  -41 F
Grand Marais Airport:  -40 F
Brainerd, MN:  -40 F
Twig, MN 3 WNW:  -39 F
Proctor, MN 2 SW:  -39 F
Pine River, MN:  -38 F
McGregor, MN:  -38 F
Siren, WI:  -37 F
Ely, MN:  -37 F
Cook, MN:  -36 F
Bigfork, MN:  -36 F
Superior Airport:  -36 F
Hinckley, MN:  -35 F
Duluth Harbor:  -34 F
Silver Bay, MN:  -34 F
Phillips, WI:  -34 F
Hayward, WI:  -34 F
Two Harbors, MN:  -33 F
Ashland, WI:  -30 F

Weather Tidbits for Duluth, Minnesota

*Average temperature for 2017 (Through Dec 29)  40.8 degrees (+1.0 degree above normal)

*Precipitation total for 2017 (Through Dec 29)  36.78 inches (+5.86 inches above normal) 
Note:  2017 currently ranks as 14th wettest year on record.

2nd coldest High temperature on record today (December 30) at Duluth and International Falls, Minnesota.  See stats below.

Duluth, Minnesota:  High temperature -7 degrees (Coldest -10 degrees 12/30/1898)

International Falls, Minnesota:  High temperature -13 degrees (Coldest -14 degrees 12/30/1976)

Weather Synopsis

Another frigid day across the Northland with highs in the single digits and teens below zero.  Quite a bit of sunshine today except over in Iron County where heavy lake effect snow has occurred at times impacting Hurley and Gile, with Gile picking up over 8″ of snow today per NWS report.

Arctic airmass will remain over the Northland through Monday.  850mb temps around -25C this afternoon, and no real moderation until Monday when H85 temperatures rise to around -15C.

High pressure >1050mb will continue to build southeast out of the northern Rockies through Monday.  Will have dry weather with quite a bit of sunshine for New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.

Lows tonight and Sunday night will be in the teens, 20s and 30s below with 40s below possible especially tonight in the traditional cold spots.  Highs Sunday will only recover to the single digits and teens below once again.

Note:  Looks a tiny bit warmer New Year’s Day with some locations in our area possibly climbing to zero, or even a few degrees above zero! 

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Wind Chill Warning for Duluth*
Timing:  Until 9 AM CST Monday

Event:  *Wind Chill Advisory for Superior*
Timing:  Until 9 AM CST Monday

.Tonight…  Bitterly cold.  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 22 below to 27 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Wind chills 30 below to around 50 below.

.New Year’s Eve…  Frigid.  Mostly sunny.  High 6 below to 11 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Wind chills 25 below to 50 below, coldest wind chills during the morning.

.New Year’s Day…  Very cold.  Partly to mostly sunny.  High 3 below to 2 above zero.  Wind west at 10 to 15 mph.  Morning wind chills 20 below to 45 below zero.

Normal temperatures for Sunday

High:  19
Low:     3

Sunrise Sunday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Sunday:   4:30 PM CST

Tim

Gusty NW wind at times, brutally cold this weekend. Black Ice possible on road surfaces

/Issued 5:36 PM CST, Friday, December 29, 2017/

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z European Ensemble computer model from 12.29.2017

Source:  https://weathermodels.com

12z European Computer model from 12.29.2017

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model from 12.29.2017

Low temperature reports from Thursday night-Friday morning, December 28-29, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Cotton, MN:  -35 F
Embarrass, MN:  -33 F
Togo, MN:  -29 F
Butternut, WI:  -27 F
Hibbing, MN:  -26 F
Solon Springs, WI:  -26 F
International Falls, MN:  -25 F
Clam Lake, WI 4 W:  -24 F
Ely, MN:  -24 F
Crane Lake, MN:  -24 F
Eveleth, MN:  -24 F
Bigfork, MN:  -24 F
Phillips, WI:  -23 F
Orr, MN:  -22 F
Moose Lake, MN:  -22 F
Cook, MN:  -21 F
Hayward, WI:  -18 F
Siren, WI:  -17 F
Aitkin, MN:  -17 F
Duluth Airport:  -13 F
Superior Airport:  -14 F
Duluth Harbor:  -9 F

Weather Tidbits

*10 subzero nights in a row (so far) at International Falls, Minnesota (Dec 20-29)  Will be adding to this into next week.

*6 subzero nights in a row (so far) at Duluth, Minnesota (Dec 24-29)  Will be adding to this into next week.

*6 nights in a row (Dec 24-29) with a low temperature of 20 below or colder at International Falls, Minnesota, and 2 out of those 6 nights had a low temperature of 30 below or colder!

Link to road conditions

Minnesota – https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map

Weather Synopsis

It’s cold and it’s going to get a whole lot colder!  Not much else to talk about through next week except for the frigid temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills. 

Highs today were in the single digits below to around 5 above zero.  There’s been some light flurries falling from the sky in parts of the area, otherwise skies were mostly cloudy to partly sunny today.

Tonight through Sunday:  Will have some clouds from time to time along with some clearing.  Can’t rule out a few flurries or ice crystals but the big weather story is the continuation of these frigid temperatures.

Lows tonight, Saturday night and Sunday night will be in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero with 40s below in the traditional cold spots especially Saturday night and Sunday night.  Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the single digits and teens below zero.

Note:  ~90 consecutive hours of subzero temperatures at the Duluth Airport from Sunday evening, December 24 through Thursday afternoon, December 28 – This streak ended around 3 PM Thursday when the temperature rose above zero (1 F) Note:  Our current streak of number of hours with a subzero temperature is ~25 consecutive hours and counting!

Note:  Patchy black ice could form on road surfaces through the weekend as automobile exhaust condenses, leading to patches of black ice forming on road surfaces through the weekend.  Use extreme caution when driving this weekend.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Wind Chill Warning for Duluth*
Timing:  9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday

Event:  *Wind Chill Advisory for Superior*
Timing:  9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday

.Tonight…  Flurries early under mostly cloudy skies followed by some clearing later in the night.  Very cold.  Low 12 below to 17 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Wind chills 20 below to 40 below.

.Saturday…  Frigid.  Partly cloudy.  High 4 below to 9 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chills 20 below to 40 below.

.New Year’s Eve…  Frigid.  Mostly sunny.  High 7 below to 12 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Wind chills 20 below to 40 below.

Normal temperatures for Saturday

High:  19
Low:     3

Sunrise Saturday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Saturday:   4:29 PM CST

Tim

Arctic air through next week. Wind Chill Advisory in effect late tonight through Friday morning

/Issued 5:38 PM CST, Thursday, December 28, 2017/

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Here’s a look at Friday’s forecast.  The next clipper is expected to remain west/south of the Northland, but some snow is expected to impact parts of southern Minnesota Friday due to that clipper that’ll miss our local area.

Source:  http://www.pivotalweather.com/

National Weather Service low temperature forecast
















Weather Tidbits

*108 consecutive hours with a below zero temperature at International Falls, Minnesota, but at 1 PM today, December 28, the temperature FINALLY climbed above zero!

*After having an average monthly temperature that was above normal most of this month, the recent cold snap has dropped the average monthly temperature below normal.  Going into today, December 28, here are the temperature departures for the month — Duluth:  -1.6 degrees below normal.  International Falls:  -1.1 degrees below normal.

Link to road conditions

Minnesota – http://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map

Weather Synopsis

Some snow did fall today but it really didn’t amount to a whole heck of a lot thanks to the very cold/dry airmass that’s in place.  Snowflake size was very small today because of the cold temperatures, and thus snowfall amounts were generally in the half inch to one inch range across the Northland, this was still enough snow, however, to produce slippery road conditions since the chemicals applied to roads doesn’t work very well when it’s this cold.  Highs today managed to hit zero or even a few degrees above zero which is the warmest temperatures we’ve had since this past weekend!

Tonight:  Partly to mostly cloudy skies with lingering flurries and light snow showers mainly this evening.  Lows will be in the single digits, teens and 20s below zero.

Friday through Sunday:  Arctic air with mainly dry weather for our area.  A strong area of high pressure >1050mb will build southeast out of western Canada while a low pressure trough stalls out over the Great Lakes.  Northwest flow between the high to our west and low to the east will result in cold arctic air locking into place through the weekend and possibly beyond.  Daytime highs on Friday will be in the single digits below to single digits above zero, highs for Saturday and New Year’s Eve are forecast to be in the single digits and teens below zero.  Lows Friday night, Saturday night and Sunday night will be in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero with a few 40s below possible in the typical cold spots Saturday night and or Sunday night.  Expect dangerously cold wind chills at times through Sunday, ranging from 25 below to around 50 below zero.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

Event:  *Wind Chill Advisory for Duluth*
Timing:  3 AM to 8 AM CST Friday

.Tonight…  Very cold.  Clear to partly cloudy.  Low 7 below to 12 below.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  Wind chills 20 below to 30 below.

.Friday…  Very cold.  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Flurries possible.  High 0 to 5 above.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Morning wind chills 20 below to 30 below.

.Saturday…  Very cold.  Mostly sunny.  High 2 below to 7 below.  Wind northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Normal temperatures for Friday

High:  19
Low:     3

Sunrise Friday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Friday:   4:28 PM CST

Tim

Heat blast for Thursday with highs near or above zero with some snow! Arctic air returns this weekend

/Issued 5:19 PM CST, Wednesday, December 27, 2017/

Here’s my snowfall accumulation map for Thursday’s event.  I think most of us will end up with around 1 or 2 inches of fluffy snow tomorrow but a few spots could hit the 3 inch mark.  The North Shore of Lake Superior could get more than 3 inches of snow due to possible lake enhanced snow with a southeast wind most of Thursday.  Drive safely as roads will likely become snow covered and slippery from SW-NE across the Northland Thursday morning/early afternoon.

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

21z HRRR model

Source:  http://weather.cod.edu

18z NAM-Nest 3km model.  Simulated radar starting this evening, ending Thursday evening.  Snow shows up as blue colors on this map.

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

18z NAM 12km

700mb forecast for Thursday.  The darker orange and red colors on this map represent stronger lift, and that’s when we should see most of our snow on Thursday as that stronger lift moves through.

Source:  http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecast map for Friday evening

Source:  https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

12z GEFS model from 12.27.2017

Loop below is the temperature anomaly forecast starting on December 27, 2017, ending January 12, 2018.  Watch toward the end of the loop how the darker blue/purple colors (Colder temps) shift toward the northern Rockies and western Canada while orange and red colors (Warmer temps) expand over the south/east portions of the U.S.  A possible pattern change is looming toward the 2nd week of January.

Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/
















Low temperature reports for December 27, 2017
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Cotton, MN 3 SE:  -41 F
Embarrass, MN:  -40 F
Effie, MN 7 E:  -39 F
Togo, MN:  -39 F
Littlefork, MN:  -37 F
Bigfork, MN:  -36 F
Northome, MN:  -36 F
International Falls, MN:  -37 F
Ely, MN:  -35 F
Longville, MN:  -35 F
Orr, MN:  -35 F
Crane Lake, MN:  -35 F
Cass Lake, MN:  -34 F
Pine River, MN:  -33 F
Clam Lake, WI 3 W:  -33 F
Minong, WI 7 WNW:  -31 F
Grand Rapids, MN:  -30 F
Brule, WI 11 SSE:  -30 F
Butternut, WI 3 N:  -30 F
Walker, MN:  -30 F
Brainerd, MN:  -29 F
Twig, MN 3 WNW:  -29 F
Chisholm-Hibbing, MN:  -28 F
Hayward, WI:  -28 F
Winter, WI:  -25 F
Proctor, MN 2 SW:  -22 F
Duluth Airport:  -22 F
Superior Airport:  -22 F
Hurley, WI:  -22 F
Duluth Harbor:  -18 F
Ashland, WI:  -18 F

*Record Event*
Source:  http://www.weather.gov/dlh/

Record low temperature at International Falls, Minnesota today, December 27, 2017.

New Record:  -37 degrees
Old Record:  -32 degrees set in 1924

Note:  International Falls had their 4th coldest low temperature on record for December 26 on Tuesday with a low of -30 degrees.  The record low for December 26 is -38 degrees set in 1990.

Link to road conditions

Minnesota – https://lb.511mn.org/mnlb/winterdriving/routeselect.jsf

Wisconsin – https://511wi.gov/map

Weather Synopsis

Still very cold today with highs ranging from zero to the single digits below zero.  There was lots of sun today but high clouds were starting to approach from the west late this afternoon.  Surface map late this afternoon places a 1042mb high over extreme southeast Minnesota, and now that we’re getting on the backside of that high, temperatures are warming up (slightly)  850mb temps at 4 PM were in the -22 to -24C range while 500mb heights have increased to 528 meters.

Tonight:  Frigid temperatures once again under clear to partly cloudy skies but clouds will be on the increase during the night.  Lows will be in the teens and 20s below zero but a few spots up north could dip into the 30s below.  Light snow is possible after 4 AM around the Brainerd Lakes area otherwise dry weather will continue in our area.

Thursday:  Snow.  A weak area of low pressure will move east out of the northern Plains with a trough/occluded front connected to this low moving east into the upper Midwest.  Model data shows quite a bit of lift as this system moves through on Thursday, but there really isn’t much moisture which isn’t surprising with how cold it’s been the past few days, PWATS on Thursday are forecast to range from 0.10 to 0.20 inches which is very low.  Not much warm air advection either as 850mb temperatures will hold fairly steady from where there at late this afternoon (Around -22 C)  The positives with this system would be the fact that the vort actually strengthens as it moves across the upper Midwest, but the negatives would be the weak surface low, and limited moisture.  Snowfall ratios should be rather high, possibly around 25:1 which should give us 1-3 inches of snow despite the low QPF amounts per model data.  Note:  It’ll be interesting to see how large the snowflakes are on Thursday.  With so much cold air in place, we could see smaller needle shaped snowflakes which could cut down on accumulations, but if snowflakes are larger, then it would accumulate more efficiently.  High temperatures on Thursday will range from around zero to the single digits above zero.

Forecast for Duluth and Superior

.Tonight…  Very cold.  Clear to partly cloudy with increasing cloudiness overnight.  Low 10 below to 15 below.  Wind becoming south to southeast around 10 mph.

.Thursday…  Light snow developing between 8-10 AM.  Light snow during the afternoon.  High 1 above to 6 above.  Wind south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph.

.Thursday night…  Light snow and flurries ending early.  Total snowfall accumulations from 1 to 3 inches.  Low 5 below to 10 below.  Wind becoming northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Normal temperatures for Thursday

High:  20
Low:     3

Sunrise Thursday:  7:54 AM CST
Sunset Thursday:   4:28 PM CST

Tim