/Issued 4:58 PM CST, Sunday, December 3, 2017/
Winter Weather Headlines map as of late Sunday afternoon — These headlines are for Monday and Monday night. The watch area will be upgraded to a warning or advisory by the National Weather Service by later tonight or Monday morning, and additional winter weather headlines may be needed a little farther to the east for Monday night. Stay tuned.
Here’s my preliminary snowfall map for this upcoming storm. Changes to this map are possible before Monday afternoon.
Forecast Storm Track on the image below
*Heaviest snowfall in the blue outlined area on map with totals of around 4 inches or more expected by late Monday night. Rain changes to snow from west to east on Monday. Strong northwest wind with gusts from 30 to 55 mph possible Monday afternoon through Monday night. Note: Blizzard conditions could develop late Monday afternoon or Monday night in parts of west central Minnesota and eastern North Dakota.
-Occasional rain showers for Monday with temperatures in the 40s.
-Colder temperatures arrive Monday night with increasing northwest wind with gusts >30 mph possible by mid or late Monday evening and during the overnight hours.
-Rain is forecast to change to snow Monday night, somewhere during the 7 PM-10 PM time frame; Snow continues overnight with more flurries and snow showers for Tuesday. Total snowfall from Monday night through Tuesday of 1 to 2 inches possible. Areas of blowing snow Monday night and Tuesday – Travel could become hazardous later Monday evening through Tuesday morning with roads possibly becoming snow and ice covered.
12z European computer model from 12.03.2017
One of the bigger weather headlines from this developing storm will be the strong northwest winds. 40-50+ mph wind gusts develop over western Minnesota on Monday, then spread farther east for Monday night. Gusty winds continue into Tuesday. Note: Wind gusts over Lake Superior could exceed 60 mph early Tuesday morning!
18z 3km NAM from 12.03.2017 — Wind gust model loop starting at Noon Monday, ending at Noon Tuesday, watch the progression of strong winds starting over the Dakotas tomorrow afternoon, then spreading farther east Monday night (Shows up as purplish colors on map)
12z European computer model from 12.03.2017
This storm should look pretty cool on satellite imagery, the map below is the forecast Infrared Satellite Image for 6 AM Tuesday — The surface low is forecast to deepen to ~974mb by Tuesday morning, a very deep/strong surface low!
With a surface low deepening as it lifts northeast into the upper Midwest on Monday it’s not too surprising that there could be a few thunderstorms in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. A few of the computer models do show enough elevated instability to support this thunderstorm risk, and mid level lapse rates also look steep, possibly in the 7.0/8.5 c/km range. I don’t think will have widespread thunderstorm activity on Monday, but certainly could be an isolated thunderstorm in parts of the Northland.
Temperature departure map for the week of November 26, 2017
Precipitation departure map for the week of November 26, 2017
Temperature and Precipitation report for Duluth, Minnesota
November 26-December 2, 2017
High Temperatures/Departure from Normal
11/26: 43 F/+13 degrees above normal
11/27: 47 F/+18 degrees above normal
11/28: 46 F/+17 degrees above normal
11/29: 37 F/+9 degrees above normal
11/30: 40 F/+12 degrees above normal
12/1: 39 F/+12 degrees above normal
12/2: 43 F/+16 degrees above normal
Low Temperatures/Departure from Normal
11/26: 18 F/+2 degrees above normal
11/27: 29 F/+13 degrees above normal
11/28: 19 F/+4 degrees above normal
11/29: 12 F/-3 degrees below normal
11/30: 25 F/+11 degrees above normal
12/1: 25 F/+11 degrees above normal
12/2: 25 F/+12 degrees above normal
Note: Average temperature for the week of November 26 at Duluth, Minnesota: 32.0 degrees (+10.6 degrees above normal) Source: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us
Total Precipitation: 0.00 inches
Normal: 0.39 inches
Departure: -0.39 inches below normal
State Average for Minnesota for the week of November 26, 2017
Temperature: 34.6 degrees
Departure: +11.8 degrees above normal
Precipitation: 0.00 inches
Departure: -0.31 inches below normal
Water vapor satellite loop from December 3, 2017. Our storm is moving across the northern Rockies today with a 998mb surface low over Wyoming. This low will move east, reaching southeast South Dakota or northeast Nebraska Monday morning with the low strengthening just a bit through that time, but most of the deepening to the surface low takes place Monday afternoon/night as it lifts northeast out of southern Minnesota to near/east of Thunder Bay Ontario by Tuesday morning, pressures could drop around 20 millibars from 994mb to 974mb during that period.